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Global Shrimp ProductionWORLD CONGRESS ON GLOBAL FISHERIES PRODUCTION

John Sackton

Vigo

October 1, 2018

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Background• 40 Years in Seafood Industry• Crab, shrimp, lobster and cod

market analyst since 1997• Preseason price and market

outlooks on shrimp, crab, lobster and cod – Maritimes, Newfoundland, Alaska, US West Coast

• Price arbitrator for Alaska crab Fisheries 2005-2017

• Co-Founder of NFI’s Global Seafood Market Conference

• Shrimp, Crab, Lobster Analyst for NFI

• Publisher of Seafood.com News

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Overview of Global Shrimp Trade

• Dominated by Farmed Shrimp

• Small Number of Major Producing Countries

• Wild Shrimp, including coldwater prawns represent about 23% of Global Trade

• Most Wild Shrimp Harvest Tracked by FAO does not enter the Global Shrimp Trade

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Aquaculture now dominates global shrimp production

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1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

10000000

Overview of Global Shrimp Production

Cold water Argentine small paste shrimp Other wild shrimp Aqua shrimp

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Overview of Global Shrimp Trade

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500000

1000000

1500000

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2500000

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3500000

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4500000

5000000

2014 2015 2016

Met

ric

To

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Global Shrimp Trade by Type of Production

Cold water Other Aquaculture

2016Coldwater 5.3%

Wild Caught 17.4%

Aquaculture 77.3%

FAO trade and production databases

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Small number of countries/species dominate each sector

• Aquaculture • Wild Caught Species

FAO trade and production databases

China32%

Indonesia16%Viet Nam

16%

Ecuador11%

India13%

Thailand9%

Mexico3%

7 Countries Represented 90% of Global Aquaculture Production in 2016

Paste Shrmp and Small Shrimp &

Unidentified51%

Cold Water Shrimp

9%

Peneaus Shrimp

(Monodon, Vanamei etc)

24%

Argentine Red Shrimp

5%

Other Harvested

Shrimp11%

Wild Caught Shrimp

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Canada38%

Greenland31%

United States of America

9%

Norway7%

Netherlands6%

Russian Federation

6%

Denmark3%

Coldwater, Argentine, and Penaeid Species Dominate Trade

Coldwater Species 90% Penaeid Species: 91%

104830

86002

24033

18697

India26%

China22%Indonesia

15%

Mexico12%

United States of America

12%

Peru4%

Thailand4%

Australia3%

Brazil2%

200116

172262

118164

Wild 854.000Coldwater 308.143

2016 production

Argentina red: 178.000

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Major Wild Shrimp Exporters

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Trade in Non-Aquaculture Frozen Shrimp

Madagascar

Venezuela, BolivarianRepublic ofNicaragua

Mexico

Honduras

Australia

Panama

Guatemala

Philippines

Pakistan

Guyana

Others

Argentina

Others

Argentina

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Argentine Shrimp had Record landings in 2017

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10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

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35.000

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45.000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Argentine monthly Shrimp Landings

2015 2016 2017 2018 - SEP

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100000

150000

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2015 2016 2017 2018 - SEP

Yearly Landings

2018 landings

will be less,

but still near

200,000 t

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Mexico wild shrimp catches stable

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 est

Met

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Wild Aquaculture

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Central American & Caribbean

Wild Capture is stable Much smaller than Aquaculture

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 est

wild capture

CA and Caribbean Guyana and Surinam 0

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 est

Wild and Farmed

CA and Caribbean Guyana and Surinam Farmed

Significant sea bob fishery in Guyana and Suriname

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Asian Wild shrimp

China Wild Capture Indonesia

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200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Paste Shrimp Southern Shrimp Karuma & Tiger Prawn Fresh water

Paste shrimp

dried, brined shrimp

Fresh waterKaruma & tiger prawn

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Banana Prawn Tiger Prawn Other Wild

Tiger prawn

Banana prawn

Other wild shrimp

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US landings of wild Gulf shrimp don’t enter international trade

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 - est

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US Domestic Gulf Landings

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Global P. borealis landings have stabilized with increases in Greenland and Barents Sea

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 est 2018

Global Landings of Pandalus borealis May Have Stabilized

North Sea Barents Iceland Greenland W greenland East Skagerrak Canada Norwayest

Seafood Datasearch Estimates and ICWPF

Coldwater shrimp

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US Pandalus jordani catches recovering

est

Seafood Datasearch Estimates and ICWPF

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50.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 - sept

US Pandalus jordani

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Dr. Carsten Hvingel

Head of Research Section

Benthic Resources and Processes

Institute of Marine Research, Norway

Interaction between shrimp and cod stocks major driver of cold water shrimp

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Wild Shrimp Summary

• Argentina continues to be the most important single producer of wild shrimp

• 2018 Landings will be down due to weather, strikes, but still around 200,000

• Catches are stable in the Caribbean and in Asia

• Wild shrimp production outside of a few species does not compete directly with aquaculture

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Wild shrimp catches will be slightly higher in 2017, may fall in 2018

• Non-Competing:

– Paste shrimp

– Small shrimp

– Locally landed and consumed shrimp

• Together these account for the majority of wild caught shrimp

• No major changes in outlook

• Competing:

– Large prawns (Karuma, Banana Prawn, Tiger Prawns)

• Argentine Shrimp

• Mexico, Caribbean wild shrimp

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History of FarmedShrimp

• Shrimp is subject to commodity cycles

• Global Demand for Shrimp is Growing

• Expansion is Driven by New Areas Coming Under Cultivation

– Technology

– Better Genetic Breeding

– Quality Brood Stock

– Favorable shrimp Prices

• Contractions are Driven by

– Disease Outbreaks in Major Production Areas

– Low Prices Discouraging Farmers

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Global farmed shrimp production recovered in 2017 and 2018

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MT

(1

00

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Farmed Shrimp Production by Major ProducerChina Indonesia Vietnam Thailand India Ecuador Mexico Bangladesh Brazil Other Americas Other Asia

NFI Global Seafood Market Conference 2018

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NFI Shrimp Panel Predicted over 6% growth in 2018

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Production Expectations by Country

Other Asia

Other Americas

Brazil

Bangladesh

Mexico

Ecuador

India

Thailand

Vietnam

Indonesia

China

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018M

T (

!00

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Overall Panel Global Shrimp Production Expectations

NFI Global Seafood Market Conference 2018

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2018 has confirmed expectations

• India growth less than expected

• Ecuador growth is more than expected

• Vietnam has also improved production

• China disease problems have not lessened

• Indonesia is very stable

• Thailand has improved efficiency

• GOAL Conference expects 6% growth to continue in 2019 and 2020

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India: Production mostly growth through new areas and ponds

Vannamei

introductio

n

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100

200

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700

monodon vannamei

2018: strong first quarter

issues developing in the

second half

Other states beyond Andhra

Pradesh are increasing

production(with co-operation from Robins McIntosh)

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Ecuador: Production Increase through

technical/efficiency gains-

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100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

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600.000

Higher Pond

Survivals

Lower FCR

Higher Pond Yields

Shorter Cycles

Low density

Can improve from

.5 t /hectare to 1.0

or 2.0 with two crops

Per year

Ecuador has higher potential than India(with co-operation from Robins McIntosh)

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China: Some success but continued disease problems

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2015 2016 2017

2015: 789,0002016: 638,0002017: 567,0002018: 520,000

Some farms in China adopting

better technology and biological

controls(with co-operation from Robins McIntosh)

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100

200

300

400

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600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

monodon vannamei

Thailand production: Production Increase through technical/efficiency gains

45,000 Ha

14 T/ha/yr

10,000 Ha

34 T/ha/yr

(with co-operation from Robins McIntosh)

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Vietnam: Production Increases with

new cost efficient systems

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100

200

300

400

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monodon vannamei

With co-operation from Robins McIntosh

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Black tiger: for the “poor farmer”

Earthen Ponds

Low RPM aeration

Less (No) EHP

Less APHNS

With co-operation from Robins McIntosh

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Summary of trends to “pond efficiency”

• Smaller Ponds: 1000-4000M2• Central Sumps for continuous removal of wastes• Higher water exchanges • Higher aeration • Depth- more reducing depth than increasing depth• Temperature stabilization: shade cloth• Use of settling, treatment, fish for recycle of exchange

water• Use of Ground water when available (no need

disinfectants, etc)• Liners- reduced pond down time, cleanup ease• Nurseries- faster growth in pond; more cycles per year• Diets formulated for the higher growth potentials

With co-operation from Robins McIntosh

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Why we expect farmed shrimp production to increase

• EMS forced major changes in shrimp aquaculture

– Led to cleaner ponds; cleaner brood stock, and cleaner water

– These changes supported technical and genetic improvements

– Makes industry more resilient in face of new diseases

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Price is a major driver for aquaculture

• Shrimp is priced by size

• New techniques lead to larger size shrimp with better growth rates

• This improves the profitability for farmers who invest and grow larger shrimp.

• Commodity cycles bigger factor than disease in production growth at this point

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There is a new shrimp disease emerging: SHIV

(Shrimp hemocyte iridescent virus )• Produces heavy mortality early

in cycle like EMS; farmers may

not distinguish

• Can be detected in broodstock

• Found initially in China, with

some reports in Vietnam

• Indian shrimp production facing

ordinary diseases, not SHIV

No shrimp diseases have been eradicated whether white

spot, EMS, or Taura. Instead farmers have adopted better

biosecurity and production methods. This makes the

commercial aquaculture industry more resilient.

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Outlook for 2019

• Price is likely to emerge as major factor in growth of shrimp production in 2019.

• Global demand for shrimp remains very high, with prices rising with volume reduction, as with Argentine shrimp this year.

• Major risk for farmed shrimp is decline in Indian production in 2019 after peak growth

• More stability in other growing areas should offset this.

• Changes in China domestic production also a factor for Ecuador

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Thank you