GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS: 2015Christopher ConsoliSenior Adviser – Storage, Asia Pacific

Cover image: Overlooking the Quest Capture facility located at Shell -Scotford, near Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. Image provided by Shell.

Fossil fuel demand growing and reserves robust

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

Fossil fuel proved reserves: 6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent

Reserves to production ratio: ~75 years

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2015 (New policies scenario)

IEA long-term energy scenarios

Reserves to production ratio: ~75 years

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 2 3 4

New policies scenario

Current policies scenario[~6DS]

450 scenario [~2DS]

Gt C

O2

emis

sion

s

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2015).

A substantial transformation in energy systems is required to achieve 2° C

Mitigation costs more than double in scenarios with limited availability of CCS

Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, November 2014.

IPCC 2014 Percentage increase in total discounted mitigation costs (2015-2100) relative to default technology assumptions – median estimate

450 138% 7% 6% 64%

2100 concentrations

(ppm CO2eq)no CCS nuclear

phase outlimited

solar/windlimited

bioenergy

4 / 11 8 / 11 8 / 11 8 / 11

Symbol legend – fraction of models successful in producing scenarios (numbers indicate number of successful models)

All models successful

Between 80 and 100% of models successful

Between 50 and 80% of models successful

Less than 50% of models successful

CCS is a vital element of a low-carbon energy future

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2015)

A transformation in how we generate and use energy is needed

Gt C

O2

emis

sion

s

6DS

2DS

2050 technology breakdown

Non-OECD

OECD

Power

Industry

Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives (2015).

CCS contributes 13% of cumulative reductions required through 2050 in a 2DS world compared to ‘business as usual’

2015-204095 Gt

A significant task within one generation

45 large-scale CCS projects -combined capture capacity of 80 Mtpa*:

• 22 projects in operation or construction (40 Mtpa)

• 11 projects in advanced planning, five nearing FID (15 Mtpa)

• 12 projects in earlier stages of planning (25 Mtpa)

OECDNon-OECD

4,000 Mtpa of CO2captured by CCS by 2040

(IEA 450 Scenario)**

40 Mtpa

Global Status

of CCS: 2015

*Mtpa = million tonnes per annum **Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives (2015).

GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS PROJECTS

Large-scale CCS projects by region or country

North America (with 13 in the US and 6 in Canada), China (with 9) and UK (with 5) have the most projects

Americas 1 3 5 11 20

Early planning

Advanced planning Construction Operation Total

China 5 4 - - 9

Europe 2 4 - 2 8

Gulf Cooperation Council - - 1 1 2

Rest of World 4 - 1 1 6

Total 12 11 7 15 45

Much to look forward to over the next 18 months

7 8 812 13

15 15 15

47

-

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Num

ber o

f pro

ject

s

Series2 Series1

A global portfolio of operating CCS projects is emerging

Source: Global Status of CCS: 2015, Global CCS Institute (2015)

2015

EOR

Dedicated Geological

Power Generation

*** Institute estimate

Actual and expected operation dates for projects in

Operating 20172016

Hydrogen production

Natural gas processing

Chemicalproduction

Iron and steel production

Synthetic natural gas

Fertiliser production

Oil refining

2018 2019 2020

= 1Mtpa of CO2 (areas of circle are proportional to capacity)

Coal-to-liquids

* Injection currently suspended

Boundary Dam

Kemper

Petra Nova

ROAD

Sargas Texas

Sinopec Shengli Peterhead

HECA**Illinois Industrial

YanchangSinopec

Qilu

Abu Dhabi

ACTL Agrium Coffeyville

Century Plant

Enid Fertilizer

Val Verde

Air Products

Lost Cabin

Lula

SnøhvitSleipner

Shute Creek

In Salah*

Uthmaniyah

Quest

Gorgon***

Spectra***

ACTL Sturgeon

Petro China Jilin

Great Plains

operation, construction and advanced planning

Don Valley

White Rose

** Storage options under evaluation

TCEP

A substantial number of ‘notable’ pilot and demonstration projects globally

Illinois Basin Decatur Project –Large-scale CO2 injection test into a deep saline aquifer (the Mount Simon Sandstone formation)

Global Status of CCS: 2015 presents almost 40 notable projects in operation or under construction around the world, demonstrating all elements of the CCS chain.

A selection of these projects are presented in this slide.

Technology Centre Mongstad –Operational test facility for amine and ammonia based post-combustion capture technologies

Norway

Tomakomai - Full chain CCS project will demonstrate carbon capture from a hydrogen production unit and storage in deep saline formations

Japan

US

• Shand Carbon CaptureShand Test Facility (CCTF) –Operational test facility for amine based post-combustion capture technologies

CanadaSinopec Shengli – Operational full chain CCS power sector project utilising EOR storage

China

Lacq – Full chain CCS project with storage in the Rousse resevoir. Montoring continues

France

WHAT IS NEEDED TO PROGRESS CCS

Strong policy drives investment

Data source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance as shown in IEA presentation “Carbon Capture and Storage: Perspectives from the International Energy Agency”, presented at National CCS week in Australia, September 2014.

20

1929

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

1 2

USD billion

• Scale of renewables investment is instructive

• CCS has not enjoyed commensurate policy support

• EOR has provided impetus in North America

• Policy parity is essential

• How do we get CCS onto a similar curve?

CCS Policy Indicator 2015 results

Source: Carbon Capture and Storage Policy Indicator 2015 Update, Global CCS Institute (2015)

Size of bubbles denotes number of projects as of October 2015.

Relative US DOE cost reduction targets and timing for second generation and transformational carbon capture technologies

Source: Fueling the Future: Safe, affordable, secure energy, Plasynski (2015)

Power generation costs of CO2 avoided

Variation in level of resource assessment completed

Source: Global Storage Readiness Assessment, Global CCS Institute & Causebrook (2015)

Global storage readiness indicator

CCS Legal and Regulatory Indicator results

Source: Global CCS Institute CCS Legal and Regulatory Indicator, Global CCS Institute (2015)

Key Messages from the Global CCS Institute

CCS is a vital component of a low-carbon future.

CCS is established and already reducing emissions.

Strong policy support is required globally.

The Global Status of CCS: 2015

The Institute’s key publication

Summary Report, Key Findings and other advocacy materials can be found at:

http://status.globalccsinstitute.com/

Full report is available online at the Institute’s Members Portal.

www.globalccsinstitute.com