Global WarmingGlobal WarmingL. David RoperL. David Roper

Professor Emeritus of PhysicsProfessor Emeritus of PhysicsVirginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.

roperld@vt.eduhttp://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid

Global Warming may be the greatest challenge that humans have encountered in the last 10,000 years.

Global Dimming due to pollution by burning oil.

Global Dimming due to pollution by burning coal.

Last 200 Years Earth Temperature and Population DataLast 200 Years Earth Temperature and Population Data

The rapid temperature increase is very The rapid temperature increase is very similar to the rapid world similar to the rapid world

population increase.population increase.

The root problem is too many people The root problem is too many people caused by the availability of easy energy!caused by the availability of easy energy!

Mother Nature will take care of the Mother Nature will take care of the problem if humans do not.problem if humans do not.

The Medieval Warm Period was not warmer than today!

Farming began.

Next Ice Age should have started here.

The Climatic Optimum was not warmer than today!

Projected sea-level rise into the future

1 meter

1 Meter Sea-Level Rise in Miami Beach, Florida

http://www.architecture2030.org

1000-Year Dust Bowl in Southwest United States

Carbon-Dioxide Concentration for Carbon-Dioxide Concentration for Last 60 Million YearsLast 60 Million Years

These concentrations correlate well with temperature.

The last time CO2 was 1000 ppmv was 40-million years ago!

Temperature & CO2 are mutually reinforcing (positive feedback).

We are only “smelling the smoke” now;the “fire” is yet to be seen!

8°C

Region of Disaster!

About 8 Gt/yr in 2006!

Peak Oil

Limit Due to Peak Fossil FuelsLimit Due to Peak Fossil Fuels

Black curve = fossil-fuels & non-fossil fuels emissions.Red points are measured data.

Peak is ~450 ppmv, in the disaster zone!

Limit Due to Peak Fossil FuelsLimit Due to Peak Fossil Fuels

Peak temperature is about 1.3°C above 1700 temperature. It remains

almost level for a long time.

Saturated Ocean & VegetationSaturated Ocean & Vegetation

Saturated Ocean & VegetationSaturated Ocean & Vegetation

Wild Card of Arctic Carbon ReleaseWild Card of Arctic Carbon Release

~Half of Arctic carbon is released.Puts ppmv well into disaster zone.

Wild Card of Arctic Carbon ReleaseWild Card of Arctic Carbon Release

Peak temperature is about 1.8°C above 1700 temperature and drops

slightly.

Saturation and Arctic Carbon ReleaseSaturation and Arctic Carbon Release

Over 1000 ppmv peak at ~2150!!

Saturation and Arctic Carbon ReleaseSaturation and Arctic Carbon Release

Dotted curve is for climate sensitivity changing from 3 to 4 with time.

Immediate Action Needed!Immediate Action Needed! Move to electric rail transportation for freight Move to electric rail transportation for freight

and mass people movement asap.and mass people movement asap. Change personal transportation to biofueled Change personal transportation to biofueled

plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles asap.plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles asap. Make biofuels using only biofuels.Make biofuels using only biofuels. Build all new buildings with solar collectors Build all new buildings with solar collectors

and gardens on their roofs and with high and gardens on their roofs and with high energy efficiency.energy efficiency.

Do not build any more coal power plants.Do not build any more coal power plants. Use petroleum only for chemicals, not to Use petroleum only for chemicals, not to

burn.burn.

Human-made Global Warming is challenging Human-made Global Warming is challenging our our Homo-sapiensHomo-sapiens brain to recognize the brain to recognize the truth of climate science, make plans to truth of climate science, make plans to mitigate Global Warming and put the plans mitigate Global Warming and put the plans into action. We are having trouble doing all into action. We are having trouble doing all three.three.

ReferencesReferences http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/

GlobalWarmingprediction.htmGlobalWarmingprediction.htm http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/

GlobalWarmingMathematics.htmGlobalWarmingMathematics.htm http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/

sealevelvstemperature.htmsealevelvstemperature.htm http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/

GlobalIceMassLoss.htmGlobalIceMassLoss.htm http://www.roperld.com/science/http://www.roperld.com/science/

GlobalWarmingRoper.htmGlobalWarmingRoper.htm