GO131:International Relations

Professor Walter HatchColby College

Nuclear Deterrence

Why the Dog Didn’t Bite(and the Cold War Stayed Cold)

Balance of power?

Or “balance of terror?”

A Puzzle for Realists

Classical realism: Superpower BehaviorIdeological moderation

Fear of escalation

Neo-realism: Structure of the SystemThe stability of bipolarity

Communication to overcome PD

Balance of Terror

Deterrence

Defined: The threat to punish another actor if it takes a particular negative action (such as attacking one’s own state or one’s allies)

One conditon: The threat must be credible.

Mutually Assured Destruction(MAD)

Nuclear Technology

Atomic bomb (1945): Fission

Hydrogen bomb (1952): Fusion

Technological “advances”

Delivery Systems (I)

Delivery Systems (II)

Delivery Systems (III)

Scared Straight

U.S.– Soviet Arms Control

Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963)

ABM Treaty (1972)

SALT (1972 and 1979)

START (1991)

Global Arms Control

Proliferation

NPT (1968)By then, France, UK and China also had joined nuclear club.

In spite of NPT, the technology spreadIndia and Pakistan never signed. Declared nuclear powers in 1970s.

Israel never signed. It is undeclared nuclear power, but probably has a hundred warheads

Iraq’s nuclear program was dismantled in 1990s.

North Korea

Near war in ’94 over plutonium production

Pulled out of NPT in ‘03 after conflict over uranium enrichment

6-8 nukes

Planning a test

Iran

Signed NPTBut enriching uraniumFor civilian or military purposes?Israel should be “wiped off the map…”

India’s Special Status

100 nukes?US cooperationWhy not Pakistan?

Proliferation for Profit

Pakistan –> Iran, Libya, North Korea

China –> Iran

Dr. A. Q. Khan

Testing

CTBT (1996)Won’t take effect until signed and ratified by 44 statesIndia and Pakistan refused to sign; conducted their own tests in late 1990s

• An attempt to divide world into “nuclear haves” and “nuclear have-nots?”

U.S. Senate voted in 1999 against ratificationBush administration opposes it

Nuclear Hypocrisy

US Response

We’re taking action …

Real threat:Rogue states

Non-state actors

Chemical and Biological Weapons