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Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance and Chief Financial Officer November 14, 2012 1
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Page 1: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference

John P. RathboneExecutive Vice President Finance

and Chief Financial Officer

November 14, 2012

1

Page 2: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Norfolk Southern Update

Third Quarter Results

Fourth Quarter Update

Business Outlook

Capital Structure

2

Page 3: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

3

Revenue

$2.7 Billion, down (7%)

RPU

$1,509, down (5%)

Volume

1,785,000 units, down (1%)3Q 2011 Mix/Price Fuel Volume 3Q 2012

$2,889

$2,693

$84$72

$40

Components of Revenue Change $ in Millions

Railway Operating RevenueThird Quarter 2012 vs. 2011

Page 4: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

4

Utility225.1(15%)

Export57.7(7%)

Met49.2

(17%)

Industrial16.2

(16%)

Utility Continued competition from natural gas and reduced demand for electricity

ExportBaltimore down (15%)Lamberts Point down (6%)

Domestic Met Decelerating steel production and closure of RG Steel

Volume of 348,200 units, down (14%) 3Q 2012 Volume (000’s) & y-o-y Percent Change

Coal MarketThird Quarter 2012 vs. 2011

Page 5: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

5

Coal MarketVolumes - Third Quarter 2012 vs. 2011

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

July August September

YoY Volume % Changes

Export Other Coal

Page 6: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

6

MetConLower iron & steel shipments driven by RG steel closure and weaker volumes of aggregates and frac sand

Agriculture Higher shipments of soybeans and feed offset declines in ethanol and wheat

Chemicals Growth in crude oil; currently shipping crude oil to six NS served refineries

Automotive Increased light vehicle production tempered by retooling/model changes

Paper Declines in pulp and waste partially offset by lumber gains

Volume of 569,700 units, down (1%) 3Q 2012 Volume (000’s) & y-o-y Percent Change

Agriculture142.6

--

MetCon165.6(7%)

Chemicals99.0+4%

Paper76.7(5%)

Automotive85.8+7%

Merchandise MarketThird Quarter 2012 vs. 2011

Page 7: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

7

Merchandise MarketVolumes - Third Quarter 2012 vs. 2011

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

July August September

YoY Volume % Change

General Merchandise

Page 8: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

8

Domestic Continued highway conversionsTightening truck capacity

International Negative comp partially offset by other gains across International customer base

Triple CrownSoft retail activity and retooling at automotive plants

PremiumIncreased volumes with key accounts

Volume of 867,100 units, up 5% 3Q 2012 Volume (000’s) & y-o-y Percent Change

Domestic434.9+11%

International292.2(1%)

Premium66.8+3%

Triple Crown73.2 (3%)

Intermodal MarketThird Quarter 2012 vs. 2011

Page 9: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

9

Intermodal MarketVolumes - Third Quarter 2012 vs. 2011

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

July August September

YoY Volume % Change

Intermodal

Page 10: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Operating ResultsThird Quarter 2012 vs. 2011 ($ Millions)

Third Qtr Third Qtr (Unfavorable)2012 2011 $ %

Railway operating revenues $ 2,693 $ 2,889 $ (196) (7%)

Railway operating expenses 1,962 1,951 (11) (1%)

Income from railway operations $ 731 $ 938 $ (207) (22%)

Railway operating ratio 72.9 67.5 (5.4) (8%)

10

Page 11: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Productivity Improvements3rd Quarter – 2012 vs. 2011

Train & Engine Service Overtime Improved 20%

Re-Crews Improved 32%

Equipment Rents (Velocity Driven) Improved 14%

Locomotives In Service Improved 3%

Fuel Consumption Improved 3%

11

Page 12: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Norfolk Southern Update

Third Quarter Results

Fourth Quarter Update

Business Outlook

Capital Structure

12

Page 13: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

834,300 units, down (3%)

860.4 834.3

2011 2012

Units (000)

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 45 (Nov 10, 2012)

13

Page 14: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

7%

4%

3%

(2%)

(2%)

(7%)

(18%)

Change in Units4QTD12 vs. 2011

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 45 (Nov 10, 2012)

Chemicals

Automotive

Intermodal

Agriculture

Paper

MetCon

Coal

14

Page 15: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

7%

4%

3%

(2%)

(2%)

(7%)

(18%)

Change in Units4QTD12 vs. 2011

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 45 (Nov 10, 2012)

Chemicals

Automotive

Intermodal

Agriculture

Paper

MetCon

Coal

15

Page 16: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

7%

4%

3%

(2%)

(2%)

(7%)

(18%)

Change in Units4QTD12 vs. 2011

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 45 (Nov 10, 2012)

Chemicals

Automotive

Intermodal

Agriculture

Paper

MetCon

Coal

16

Page 17: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

7%

4%

3%

(2%)

(2%)

(7%)

(18%)

Change in Units4QTD12 vs. 2011

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 45 (Nov 10, 2012)

Chemicals

Automotive

Intermodal

Agriculture

Paper

MetCon

Coal

17

Page 18: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

7%

4%

3%

(2%)

(2%)

(7%)

(18%)

Change in Units4QTD12 vs. 2011

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 45 (Nov 10, 2012)

Chemicals

Automotive

Intermodal

Agriculture

Paper

MetCon

Coal

18

Page 19: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

7%

4%

3%

(2%)

(2%)

(7%)

(18%)

Change in Units4QTD12 vs. 2011

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 45 (Nov 10, 2012)

Chemicals

Automotive

Intermodal

Agriculture

Paper

MetCon

Coal

19

Page 20: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

7%

4%

3%

(2%)

(2%)

(7%)

(18%)

Change in Units4QTD12 vs. 2011

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 45 (Nov 10, 2012)

Chemicals

Automotive

Intermodal

Agriculture

Paper

MetCon

Coal

20

Page 21: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Train Speed2012 - YTD through November 2, 2012

21.522.022.523.023.524.024.525.025.5

NS Train Speed (miles per hour) Better

Source: As reported publicly to the AAR

21

Page 22: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Terminal Dwell2012 - YTD through November 2, 2012

16.017.018.019.020.021.022.023.024.025.0

NS Terminal Dwell (hours) Better

Source: As reported publicly to the AAR

22

Page 23: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Composite Service Performance1Q10 – 3Q12

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

23

Page 24: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Norfolk Southern Update

Third Quarter Results

Fourth Quarter Update

Business Outlook

Capital Structure

24

Page 25: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

25

Business Outlook

Utility coal impacted by competition from

natural gas and reduced demand for electricity

Weaker demand in European and Asian

markets for both met and steam coal

Softer domestic metallurgical market to

support steel production

Coal

Page 26: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

26

Business Outlook

Coal Utility coal impacted by competition from natural gas and reduced demand for

electricity Weaker demand in European and Asian markets for both met and steam coal Softer domestic metallurgical market to support steel production

24

26

28

30

32

2011* 2012*

Uni

ts (0

00s)

Rolling Avg - Weeks 36 - 39

(13%)

24

26

28

30

32

2011* 2012*

Uni

ts (0

00s)

Rolling Avg - Weeks 40 - 43

(18%)

* Based on AAR Volumes including Coal, Coke and Metallic Minerals in 2011 and Coal and Coke in 2012.

Page 27: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

27

Business Outlook

Project growth in crude oil

Declining demand for sand and other materials for natural gas drilling

Continued automotive growth but tougher comps

Reduced U.S. corn and soybean crop

Merchandise

Page 28: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

28

Business Outlook

Continued opportunities for highway conversion

New Intermodal service lanes ahead as new corridor terminals open

Growth with international shipping partners excluding negative Maersk comp

Expansion in premium market segment

Intermodal

Page 29: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Crescent CorridorSets the Stage for up to 34 New Service Lanes in 2013

Meridian

To Mexico

Bethlehem

Greencastle

Birmingham

Memphis

AtlantaCharlotte

Harrisburg

To/From West

New Orleans

Terminal Investments

Meridian

To/From Mexico

29

Page 30: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Norfolk Southern Update

Third Quarter Results

Fourth Quarter Update

Business Outlook

Capital Structure

30

Page 31: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sep YTD2012

$1,178 $1,341

$1,558 $1,299

$1,470

$2,160

$1,522

Capital Expenditures($ millions)

21

31

Page 32: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sep YTD2012

$2,206 $2,333

$2,715

$1,860

$2,714

$3,227

$2,476

$1,178 $1,341$1,558

$1,299 $1,470

$2,160

$1,522

Cash from Operations Capital Expenditures

Cash From Ops and Capital Expenditures($ millions)

21

32

Page 33: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$0.26 $0.30 $0.36$0.48

$0.68

$0.96

$1.22$1.36 $1.40

$1.66

$1.94

Annual Dividend Per Share

Compound annual growth rate of 22% for 2002 through 2012

+15% +20% +33% +42% +41% +27% +11% +3% +19% +17%

33

Page 34: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Balanced Cash Flow Utilization2006 through September 2012

Dividends Share Repurchases Capital Expenditures

$10.5 Billion $10.5 Billion*

$7.3 Billion

$3.2 Billion

* See reconciliation to GAAP of Total Shareholder Distributions posted on our website, www.nscorp.com.

34

Page 35: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference John P. Rathbone Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer. November

Thank You

35


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