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G PP L S en se x

IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800

Initiating CoverageJanuary 8, 2014

Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL)

IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.

Source: IndiaNivesh Research

STOCK INFO

BSE 533248

NSE GPPLIN

Bloomberg GPPV IN

Reuters GPPL BO

Sector Port

Face Value (Rs) 10

Equity Capital (Rs mn) 4,834

Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 30,118

52w H/L (Rs) 67/ 41

3m Avg Daily Vol. in mn (BSE + NSE) 955,146

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN %

(as on 30th Sep. 2013)

Promoters 43.0

FIIs 33.5

DIIs 12.9

Public & Others 10.6

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m 3m 12m

GPPL 9 36 29

SENSEX -3 2 5

GPPL v/s SENSEX

Source: Capitaline, IndiaNivesh Research

Source: BSE


Daljeet S. KohliHead of Research

Mobile: +91 77383 93371, 99205 94087Tel: +91 22 [email protected]

Y. SantoshResearch Analyst

Mobile: +91 77383 93416Tel: +91 22 [email protected]

We initiate coverage on Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. (GPPL) with BUY rating and Price Target of Rs 75.

Our rationale for BUY is on the back of (1) Scale-up in Container volumes (from 570,500 TEUs in CY12

to 715,200 TEUs in CY14E) to lead to 25.3% revenue CAGR during CY12-14E, (2) likely pick-up inexports-imports cycle, (3) continued growth trends from PRCL, and (3) unlevered Balance Sheet with

69.9% earnings CAGR during CY12-14E.

Investment RationaleStrong parentage support: APMM Group currently owns 43.01% of Gujarat Pipavav port (GPPL), Indiasfirst private sector port built via PPP model. Strong parentage from APMM (also a key anchor client)comforts us about (1) alignment with international shipping routes, (2) best business and governancepractise followed in the industry, and (3) access to experienced professional management team.

Rising market position: Gujarat based ports are well positioned to have access to North & North-Western India. Pipavav port located in Gujarat benefits from (1) gain in volumes, given their closeproximity to JNPT, which is running at peak uti lization, and (2) access to North & North-West hinterland.In 9mCY13 (Sep-13 ending) GPPLs Container Terminal business handled 467,000 Twenty FootEquivalents (TEUs).

Healthy Cargo Growth: We expect GPPL to post healthy container volume growth of 12.0% CAGRduring CY12-14E. Our Container volume growth assumption factors in (1) increased traction fromrecently (last 2-3 quarters) won clients, thereby, reducing dependency on APMM (contributes ~35%of Container traffic), 2) pick-up in exports-imports cycle, (3) location advantage to hinterlands of North& North-West India, and (4) spill-over traffic from APMMs Terminal at JNPT (152 nautical miles awayfrom GPPL) to flow to GPPL (as JNPT port is running at peak utilization levels).

Strong relations with Shipping Lines: Strong parentage support from APMM coupled with GPPLslocation advantage, has helped it market itself successfully. Currently, GPPL has relations with over 10of the Top 15 Shipping lines globally. These relationships provide near-to-medium term business visibility.

Q3CY13 Results - Robust volumes drive Revenue growth: In Q3CY13 (Sep-13 ending), GPPL reportedrevenues of Rs 1.18 bn, an increase of 36.5% over Q3CY12, reflecting 29.4% & 31.3% y/y increase inContainer & Bulk Cargo Volumes. EBITDA increased 106.1% y/y to Rs 532 mn (margins improved from29.9% in Q3CY12 to 45.1% in Q3CY13). We expect GPPL to report 25.3% and 69.9% y/y revenue andPAT CAGR during CY12-14E to Rs 5.8 bn and Rs 2.1 bn, respectively, backed by ramp-up in recent

contracts signed with shipping lines, congestion/ rollovers at JNPT Port, and full impact of tariff hikesto be seen from here-on. We have not modeled any revenue flowing in from GPPLs long-termagreements with Aegis Logistics, Gulf Petrochem & Indian Molasses Co., who own the Liquid Tanks.

Healthy earnings growth with Lower debt: We expect GPPL to report 69.9% net profit CAGR duringCY12-14E, on the back of strong top-line growth and improvement in operating metrics. Our earningsgrowth assumption factors in lower y/y interest expenses in CY14, as we expect capex cycle to kick-infrom CY15E onwards. This healthy earnings growth is on a highly unlevered balance sheet (CY14E debtat Rs 2.7 bn, 0.2x D/E ratio), where most Infra players have been reeling under heavy balance sheetstress.

Growth at PRCL to continue: PRCL reported ~Rs 1,790 mn of top-line (18.3% y/y growth) and ~Rs 464mn of PAT (PAT margins of 25.9%) in FY13. The company announced its maiden dividend (interim) ofRs 380 mn. With traction in business from here-on (as rail volumes from GPPL would further increasefrom current levels), we expect strong growth at PRCL business. Also, strong financial performanceshould translate to higher dividend pay-out.

ValuationsAt CMP of Rs 62, GPPL is trading at CY13E and CY14E, P/E multiple of 20.3x and 14.1x, respectively. Wehave valued the core business of GPPL using Discounted Cashflow to Equityholders (DCFE) and valuedthe Associate entity PRCL using the Book Value method. On using the Sum-of-the-Parts (SoTP) model,we arrived at CY14E based price target of Rs 75/ share. Given the 21% upside potential the stock hasfrom current levels, we recommend BUY on the stock.

Financials

Ready to Embark on a High Tide...

CMP : Rs.62

Rating : BUY

Target : Rs.75

Current

YE December (Rs mn) Net Sales EBITDA Adj. PAT Equity Cap. EPS (Rs) RoE (%) P/E (x)

CY11A 3,662 1,520 571 4,236 1.3 7.2% 46.3x

CY12A 3,715 1,374 740 4,834 1.6 6.1% 38.0x

CY13E 4,589 1,930 1,489 4,834 3.1 10.9% 20.3x

CY14E 5,831 2,526 2,134 4,834 4.4 13.0% 14.1xCY15E 6,732 2,921 2,432 4,834 5.0 12.6% 12.4x

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IndiaNivesh Research January 8, 2014 | 2 of 15

Initiating Coverage| Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. Ready to Embark on a High Tide...

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FY98 FY99 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

APM joins SKIL

Rail Line

Commissioned Fresh Agreement

was signedwith

APM

Concession Agreement

signed with GMB & SKIL

APM Terminals start

Com. Operations

(in'000

TEUs)

Company OverviewIndia's first BOT Port project was awarded in Aug-1992 to a JV led by Gujarat MaritimeBoard (GMB) and SeaKing Engineers Limited (SKIL). In 1998, GMB divested its stakein the JV in favour of SKIL. Later in 2005, SKIL the then promoter of GPPL sold its

entire stake to APMM Group led consortium of investors. APM Terminals, part ofAP Moller Maersk (APMM) group is the largest Terminal operator with network of69 ports (and 160+ Inland Container Services) across 68 countries. APM Terminals

through APM Terminals Mauritius Ltd. (ATML) holds 43.01% stake in GPPL.

Container Volumes at GPPL

Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

Details of Port Concession AgreementGPPL entered in to 30 years concession agreement with Gujarat Maritime Board(GMB) to build, construct, operate and maintain Pipavav port, located at Amrelidistrict, Gujarat on Sep 30, 1998.

GPPL is one of the most efficient ports located in Gujarat, Western India. This porthas location advantage given that 2 islands act as natural breakwater. This port isstrategically located near the entrance of Gulf of Khambhat. Their strategic locationpositions it to be identified as a main maritime trade route, which is helpful in

import & export from USA, Middle East and other European nations.

Snapshot of past developments

Since GPPL reported turnaround in their financials in CY11, growth prospects of thecompany have been hindered due to slowdown in global economy. Also, in Mar-12,

GPPL lost 2 Maersk shipping lines to another group company, Gateway Terminals

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India (GTI, JV between APM Terminals and the Container Corporation of India). As aresult, the Container volumes at GPPL declined from 610,200 TEUs in CY11 to

570,500 TEUs in CY12. Since H2CY12, GPPL has taken efforts to reduce itsdependence on any one shipping company (~20 Shipping companies serve GPPL

resulting in decline in APMMs contribution to ~35%). Over the last 4-5 quarters wehave seen gradual improvement in their operating performance with new client

wins and ramp-up in business from these new client wins.

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Plan Non-Plan Total Plan Non-Plan Total Plan Non-Plan Total

Murmugao Port Trust 0 717 717 0 714 714 1,100 0 1,100

Kochi Port Trust 751 922 1,673 0 935 935 300 931 1,231

Paradip Trust 0 789 789 0 1,273 1,273 0 969 969

Mumbai Port Trust 0 2,079 2,079 0 3,771 3,771 0 4,276 4,276

New Mangalore Port Trust 0 382 382 0 360 360 0 750 750

Jawarharlal Nehru Port Trust 0 1,405 1,405 0 3,412 3,412 0 15,591 15,591

Kandla Port Trust 0 570 570 0 1,669 1,669 0 1,455 1,455

Total 751 6,864 7,614 0 12,133 12,133 1,400 23,971 25,371

Y/Y change (%) 59% 109%

Actual FY12 Revised FY13 Budgeted FY14Actual/ Proposed Exp. on

Major Ports on West Coast

1816

58

37

67

85

109%

48%

118%

68%

101%

95%

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Murmugao Port

Trust

Kochi Port Trust Mumbai Port

Trust

New Mangalore

Port Trust

Jawarharlal Nehru

Port Trust

Kandla Port Trust

Investment Rationale

GPPLs rising Market positionWe are impressed by the structural growth story emerging from Gujarat basedprivate ports on the back of regulatory landscape challenges, better operational

efficiencies playing-out (vs. government owned ports).

Over the last 2-3 decades, we have seen emergence of Gujarat based private ports

as new hub for handling cargos and shipments. Favorable policy announcementsby Gujarat state government such as (1) awarded port projects on Public PrivatePartnership (PPP) model on Build Own Operate Transfer (BOOT) basis with 30 yearconcession agreements (extendable by 20 years), (2) scheme of lower royaltypayments and strong execution mechanism (granting faster state level approvals)has helped the state emerge as new Port hub.

Currently, Gujarats coastline has 42 ports (41 being non-major and the other onebeing Kandla). However, out of 42 only 21 are operational, as of now. Ports across

Gujarat account for ~40% of total cargo handled at Western Coast of India.

Currently, there are only 6 major ports (excluding Adani) in Western Coastline. Mostof these ports (ones enjoying location advantage such as JNPT, Mumbai port) arerunning at full capacities and the ones with smaller capacities and inefficient practices

are running at lower capacity utilization levels. Given that tariff is governed by TariffAuthority for Major Ports (TAMP), these ports lack motivation to do more of business.As a result, we sense huge opportunity and market share gains for non-major ports(inc. of Pipavav Port), in near-to-medium term.

FY13 Traffic handled (mn tn) & Capacity Utilization (%)


With slow-down in the Indian economy, most of the proposed capex executionacross these major ports has slowed. Further, if we look at governments spendingplans in west coast, then majority of budgeted spending is towards JNPT & MumbaiPort Trust.

Source: Budget Documents; IndiaNivesh Research

6 major Ports (west coast) running at peakUtilization + Better Operating Efficiencies at

GPPL + slow-down in capacity additions =

Gains for GPPL

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696

770820

873

930991

535578

605636

668696

(103)(135) (146) (157) (170) (184)

(400)

(200)

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1,200

FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Coal Re qu ir eme nt Dome sti c S up ply Coal S hor tage

Slower pace of granting clearances, regulatory overhangs coupled with slow-downin economy has lead to actual spending lesser than targeted in FY14E. On a whole,

we are confident that companies like Gujarat Pipavav Ports Ltd. (GPPL) and AdaniPorts & SEZ would be benefitting the most from current capacity constraints at

JNPT.

Gujarat Pipavav Ports Ltd. (GPPL) Port Terminal FacilitiesGPPLs port has Container Yard capacity of 0.85 mn TEUs (quayside handling capacityof 1.3 mn TEUs), Bulk Cargo capacity of 4-5 mn tonnes, Liquid Cargo capacity of ~2mn tonnes. With container capacity of 0.85 mn TEUs and draft of 14.5 meters (at

high tide), we expect Pipavav to comfortably accommodate 5,000-6,000 modernTEU ships. The container terminal is well supported by 3 Container Freight Stations(one each managed by Box Trans Logistics, LCL Logix Park & APM Terminals Inland

Services).

Pipavav operates 5 Terminals, 2 Terminals to handle Bulk & break-Bulk cargo; 2Terminals to handle Containers and 1 Terminal to handle LPG. Coal & Fertilizer arethe 2 main commodities in the Bulk Cargo segment being handled by Pipavav Port.

Pipavav is well connected via rail and road networks. Pipavav Ports has 38% stake inPipavav Railway Corp. Ltd, Indias first Rail JV, with the balance stake held by Indian

Railways. Some of the unique features of this rail network are:

Well connected to Inland Container Depots (ICDs) network.

Handle 22 trains each way/ day.

Well capable to handle high cube double-stack containers.

Well connected to Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC).

Also, the port is well connected to National Highway (NH) 8E through a four laneroad network (this road stretch is approx. 10 kms).

GPPL to gain from coal importsDespite India being ranked as the 4rth largest player with coal reserves in world,India continues to import coal (as demand outpaces domestic supply). During FY07-

12, demand for coal increased at 6.5% CAGR to 696 mn tonnes, whereas domesticsupply increased at 5% CAGR to reach 535 mn tonnes, indicating gap of 161 mntonnes (and actual imports of 103 mn tonnes). Commissioning of new Thermal

power plants in FY13 (on the back-drop of coal deficit scenario) led to import of 135mn tonnes and we expect such imports to increase to 184 mn tonnes by FY17E.


Coal Requirement vs Domestic Supplies and Coal Shortage (in mn tn)

Source: Planning Commission; CIL; IndiaNivesh Research

Port ParticularsQuay length

(mt)Cargo Type

Pipavav Port (Berth 1)

Pipavav Port (Berth 2)

Pipavav Port (Berth 3) 330 Multi-Purpose

Pipavav Port (Berth 4) 385 Container

Pipavav Port (Liquid Jetty) 65 LPG

360 Dry Bulk Cargo

Ramp-up in Operations likely to be seen in

CY14E across both Container & Bulk Cargo (led

by Coal imports)

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Power sector happens to be the largest consumer of coal. With ~85-90 GW ofcapacity additions likely (during FY12-17E, majority of them being Thermal), there

exists huge opportunity for coal imports to be fulfilled through Western Coast line(thereby benefitting Gujarat Pipavav port). Pipavav being dependent more on coal

imports should gain the most from continuous increase in coal imports to India.Also their strong road-rail connectivity to Northern & North-Western India, coupled

with impressive operational metrics, comforts us that Gujarat Pipavav wouldcontinue to be the preferred port by the shipping lines over the western coast.

Healthy Container Volume growthSince losing 2 of Maersk shipping lines in CY11, GPPL witnessed 6.5% y/y decline inits CY12 Container volumes to 570,500 TEUs. Since then the company has made upthe loss of business by signing-in other shipping lines. We are seeing quarterly

Container volumes of over 160,000 TEUs in last 2-3 quarters (similar to volumesseen prior to loss of business from Maersk). In Q3CY13 GPPL reported Containervolumes of 163,000 TEUs, which reflects 14.0% q/q and 29.4% y/y growth. Growth

in volume reflects (1) partial impact of new client addition- New Gulf Service (NMG)Middle-East service line, which has potential to add ~50-60,000 TEUs p.a. and (2)

ramp-up in business from prior quarter client wins. NMG service has been operativefrom Sep 19, 2013 (operated by Express Feeders, OEL & Simatech lines). We havemodeled Container Volumes of 644,400 TEUs for CY13 (indicating Q4CY13 volumesof 177,400 TEUs), on the back of (1) Q4 seasonally being a good quarter, and (2)

ramp-up in volumes from recently added shipping lines.

We expect GPPL to post healthy container volume growth of 12.0% CAGR duringCY12-14E. Our Container volume growth assumption is on the back of (1) increasedbusiness from APMM Group (contributes ~35% of Container traffic), (2) location

advantage with access to North & North-West hinterlands, (3) revival in the export-import cycle, and (4) spill-over traffic from APMMs Terminal at JNPT (152 nauticalmiles away from GPPL) to flow to GPPL.

Strong relations with Shipping LinesCurrently, GPPL has relations with over 10 of the Top 15 Shipping lines globally, onthe back of its strong parentage. Relationships with some of these global top 15shipping lines comforts us about GPPLs near-to-medium term business visibility. Athird of container volumes (i.e. 230,000-250,000 TEUs) are tied-up in long-term

contracts and this comforts us about sustenance of the current run-rate acrossContainer volumes.

We are assured that these Shipping lines could generate enough businessopportunity for Pipavav in near-to-medium term.

Q3CY13 Results - Robust growth across Containers volumes

In Q3CY13 (Sep-13 ending), GPPL reported consolidated revenues of Rs 1.1 bn, anincrease of 36.5% over Q3CY12, reflecting 29.4% & 31.3% y/y increase in Container& Bulk Cargo Volumes. In addition to higher container and bulk volumes, GPPL alsobenefitted from higher realizations. GPPL switched from Rupee denominated toDollar denominated tariff rates in Aug-12, which also led to higher Q3CY12realizations (INR depreciated vs. USD). Also, in later part Aug-13, GPPL reportedincrease in tariff rates, the full impact of it should get reflected in Q4CY13 results.

We expect GPPLs to report revenue CAGR of 25.3% during CY13-15E to Rs 5.8 bn,backed by recent contracts signed with shipping lines and expected increase inblended realizations. GPPLs JV with Aegis Logistics to develop Liquid Tanks (to beoperational by early 2014) should contribute to revenues (not modeled in to ourestimates). Also, congestion/ rollovers at Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust Port would

benefit GPPLs container volumes.

Q3CY13 EBITDA increased 106.1% y/y to Rs 532.0 mn, and margins improved from29.9% in Q3CY12 to 45.1% in Q3CY13. On a lower base, lower handling charges

Relationships with

APM-Maersk

CMA-CGM Group

Hapag-Lloyd

MACS

Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM)

Emirates Shipping Line

OOCL

Wan Hai Lines

MOL

Samudera

Evergreen Line

APL

CSCL

Hanjin Shipping


Strong relationships with Shipping Lines +

Recent Client wins = Strong growth in

Container Volumes

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(due to better commodity- coal mix) contributed to EBITDA margin expansion. Withincreased demand for coal, we expect this trend of lower handling charges to be

seen in CY14E, too. Accordingly, we expect 30.9% y/y increase in CY14E EBITDA toRs 2,526 mn.

In addition to strong y/y EBITDA growth in CY14E, we expect GPPL to benefit from(1) lower finance costs (as majority of capex gets spilled to CY15E, we expect debt

to decline to Rs 2.7 bn in CY14E), and (2) Profit from Associate- PRCL (Rs 89.9 mnadded to PAT in CY14E). As a result, we expect GPPL to report strong 43.4% y/y PATgrowth in CY14E to Rs 2,134.5 mn.

Healthy earnings growth with Lower debtWe expect GPPL to report 69.9% net profit CAGR during CY12-14E, on the back ofstrong top-line growth and improvement in operating metrics. Our earnings growthassumption captures the impact of (1) lower y/y interest expenses in CY14, as capexcycle would get deferred to CY15E (vs. management expectations of CY14E) and (2)Profit from Associates (i.e. from PRCL).

Interestingly, this healthy earnings growth is on the back of an unlevered balance

sheet (CY14E debt at Rs 2.7 bn and D/E ratio at 0.2x), when most of the Infracompanies have been reeling under heavy balance sheet stress. Even though

management has indicated that they are ready to go ahead with their Rs 11 bncapex plan. Despite the recommendations accepted for environment clearance ofthe proposed capex, the company has till now not received the clearance letter

from the Environment Ministry. With recent change of guard at the EnvironmentMinistry and 2014 General Elections scheduled ahead, we do not expect any furtherdevelopments atleast till Q4CY14E. Accordingly, we have not modeled any major

capex for CY14E in our model. We expect capex works to catch momentum in CY15E.With Cash flow from Operations to the tune of ~Rs 5.4 bn (during CY13-14E), thedebt requirements to fund the capex would also reduce, thereby avoiding any further

strain on the financials.

New stream of revenues to come into force in CY14EGPPL signed long term agreements with 3 firms, Aegis Logistics, Gulf Petrochemand IMC to develop Liquid Farms/ Tanks in their port premises. The objective for

GPPL was to generate new revenue streams from excess land, where they couldfacilitate clients store Liquid Gas/ Fuel. Management indicated that the constructionworks of Aegis Logistics Liquid Tanks is almost done and should be operational in

Q1CY14. The remaining 2 should get operational in H1CY14E. Management has notshared details of likely revenue numbers from Liquid Tanks business and as a resultwe have not built the same in to our numbers. Management has highlighted that

there would be 2 revenue streams from this business- cargo handling charges (forhandling cargo) and lease rentals (for usage of Liquid Storage Tanks). Further,management also highlighted that this business segment is a high margin business

at ~70% levels, in comparison to EBITDA margins in other segments.

Growth at PRCL to continuePRCL, is an associate company of GPPL, where GPPL has 38% stake is the JV and theremaining being held by Indian Railways. PRCL was the first BOT Rail JV formed torun rail line between the port and Surendranagar. With connectivity to North &

North-Western India, the business could see huge boost (as transportation fromports to ICDs would get cheaper and quicker).

PRCL reported ~Rs 1,790 mn of top-line (18.3% y/y growth) and ~Rs 464 mn of PAT(PAT margins of 25.9%) in FY13. The company recently announced its maiden

dividend (interim) of Rs 380 mn. With traction in business from here-on (as railvolumes from GPPL would further increase with port traffic switching over to Rail

route), we expect growth trends at PRCL to continue. Also, strong financialperformance of PRCL should translate to higher dividend pay-out.

69.9% Earnings CAGR during CY12-14E on a

unlevered balance sheet

Future Earnings growth also to get support

from: New revenue streams from Liquid Tanks

+ PRCL profits

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SWOT Analysis


Strengths Weakness

Assured business from APM as it continues to be one

of Ports' anchor tenant

Heavy dependence on APM volumes (APM contributes

~35% of total volumes).

Location advantage vs. JNPT on all Operational Metrics

could help in attracting volumes

Limited scope for Capacity Expansion as actual capex

spends may get delayed

Excellent Rail-Road connectivity to North & North-

Western India

Opportunities Threats

With ~4 km of Waterfront capacity & Idle land, GPPL

has huge scope for capacity expansion

Commissioning of Hazira Terminal & aggressive

expansion at JNPT could act as threat to

growth prospects of GPPLAdditional volumes can be attracted as GPPLs rail arm

has upgraded their services to Double stack Rail

operations

Further delays in revival of capex cycle in Power

sector, sudden dip in International economy could act

as risk for GPPLs Bulk business volumes

Generate additional revenues by sharing land for

developing Liquid Tank Farms, Storage Tanks, etc.


Mgmt. Estimates (CY14-16E)

Capex details (Rs mn) Container Bulk Com. Infra TotalBerth 2,280 545 0 2,825

Dredging 0 0 2,070 2,070

Yard & Conveyors 940 1,380 0 2,320

Equipments 2,380 285 0 2,665

Roads 0 0 545 545

Others 472 75 0 547

Total 6,072 2,285 2,615 10,972

Proposed CapexGPPL embarked upon ~Rs 11 bn capex plan to expand its Container and Bulk capacity.Delay in getting clearance led to 6-9 months delay. Even though GPPL has got allclearances in place from Environment Ministry (in Nov-13), the final clearance letteris yet to be handed over. With recent resignation of Environment Minister and 2014General Elections scheduled ahead, we would be surprised if the company getsclearance letter in next 5-6 months. With new government at the helm of affairs,

post 2014 General Elections, there exists high probability for clearance letter to bedelivered in Q4CY14E. Hence, against management and streets expectations ofcapex spends commencing from CY14E, we have modeled the same from Q4CY14Eonwards.

Ourtake: Capex of Rs 11 bn may not be completed by CY16. Some portion especially

related to bulk business and dredging costs may get spilled-over to CY17E. Thereforein our model we are buding in capex of Rs 8.5 bn between CY14-16E vs managementexpectations of spending Rs 11 bn in this period.

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Management had earlier guided for ~Rs 11 bn of capex spending to be done duringCY14-16E, with ~Rs 6.0 bn to be spent towards Container capacity expansion,

~ Rs 2.3 bn towards Bulk berths and ~Rs 2.6 bn towards common Infrastructure.

Management expects Container capex spends to be incurred towards (1) Dredgingcosts, (2) Berth Construction, (3) Equipment purchases, and (4) Construction ofEquipment yards. GPPL intends to expand quay length of its Container berth from

385 meters to 735 meters resulting in increase of the yard capacity from current0.85 mn TEUs to 1.5 mn TEUs. As part of spending towards the Bulk berths, GPPLintends to extend (1) Berth 1 by ~100 meters, (2) expand quay length from 690meters (for 3 berths) to 800 meters at Dry Bulk berth, (3) Construct Conveyor beltsystem, and (4) New Warehouse. Post the expansion, Bulk berths capacity wouldincrease from current 5 mn tonnes to ~10 mn tonnes.

We expect Rs 7.5 bn of capex spends towards Container capacity expansion andrelated Dredging expenses to commence from Q4CY14E onwards. Accordingly, we

have modeled Rs 1190.5 mn (mostly towards Common Infrastructure & Rail related)and Rs 857.5 mn of capex spends in CY13E and CY14E. With ramp-up in capexexecution, we expect CY15E to witness Rs 5,647.5 mn of capex spending, mostly

towards Container capacity expansion.

This delay in capex is a boon in disguise for the company, as their depedency ondebt, as a source of funding would decline for further delays in commencement ofcapex works. We expect GPPL to report Cash flow from Operations (CFO) to thetune of ~Rs 8.7 bn (during CY13-15E), which could take care of almost entire capex.Hence, we do not foresee any requirement for long-term debt from here-on. Eventhough GPPL has raised ECB to the tune of ~Rs 8.0, there would be very minimal

requirement of debt draw-down happening in CY15E.

Capex to get delayed, a boon in disguise

607.9

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2,412.7

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3,299.7

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500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Cash Flow from Operations (Rs mn)


In absence of this capex, GPPL is likely to end CY14E with o/s debt of ~Rs 2.7 bn(indicating debt to equity ratio of 0.2x). On pursuing this capex plan, we do notforesee any major increase in financial leverage, going forward.

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105.588.1

130.3 142.3

466.1

136.5 134.4

169.0 170.4

610.2

165.3

122.7 125.9156.5

570.5

161.0143.0

163.0177.4

644.4

715.2

793.9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Q1CY10 Q2CY10 Q3CY10 Q4CY10 CY10 Q1CY11 Q2CY11 Q3CY11 Q4CY11 CY11 Q1CY12 Q2CY12 Q3CY12 Q4CY12 CY12 Q1CY13 Q2CY13 Q3CY13 Q4CY13E CY13E CY14E CY15E

Forecasts up to CY15E

Income StatementWe expect GPPL to report impressive 25.3% top-line CAGR during CY12-14E, on theback of (1) 12.0% CAGR in Container Terminal Volumes (to ~715,200 TEUs) (2) 11.4%

CAGR in Bulk Volumes (to ~3.7 MTs) and (3) impact of recent increase in tariff rates($ denominated).

Growth in Container volumes is on a lower base, as GPPL had lost business (~1,200TEUs/week) from Maersk in 2012 (replaced large ship with smaller ship). Over thelast few quarters, GPPL has reported new client wins and currently GPPL has businesswith over 10 of the top 15 global shipping companies. At current levels, the companyhas been reporting quarterly Container volume run-rate of ~160,000 TEUs (almostto levels before loss of business from Maersk). With ramp-up in operations from

deal wins in recent months, we are comforted that the current run-rate issustainable. Accordingly, we have modeled 177,400 TEUs for Q4CY13E to arrive atCY13 total of 644,400 TEUs. We expect the growth momentum to continue andaccordingly, have modeled Container volume of 715,200 TEUs and 793,900 TEUs

for CY14E and CY15E, respectively. At CY14E and CY15E, container volumes, theContainer Terminal would be running at ~84% and 93% utilization levels. We expect

Container Terminal capacity addition to contribute to business from CY16E onwards.

Container Volumes (TEUs in '000s)


Q2 and Q3 happen to be the best quarters for Bulk volumes. GPPL reported Bulkvolumes of 0.98 mn tonnes in Q3CY13 (taking the total to 2.58 mn tonnes for9mCY13). For their Bulk business, GPPL Imports/ Exports (1) Coal (yearly 1.5-1.8mn tonnes, for UltraTech, Siddhi Cements and Narmada Cements), (2) Fertilizer(yearly 1 mn tonnes), (3) Minerals (inc. of Bauxite, Limestone, Gypsum with 1-1.5

mn tonnes yearly capacity) and (4) Wheat. Management expected better demandfor Fertilizer and Wheat in Q4CY13 (these 2 to contribute ~80-85% of total bulkvolumes). Higher volumes and better realization from these two categories shouldhelp GPPL cover-up for lower Coal volumes. Accordingly, we have modeled Cargovolumes to be at 0.78 mn tonnes for Q4CY13 (taking CY13E total to 3.36 mn tonnes).

Also, from here-on we expect gradual uptick in Bulk volumes and accordingly havemodeled 11.4% CAGR in volumes during CY12-14E to 3.7 mn tonnes.

Top-line & Bottom-line to report 25.3% &

69.9% CAGR during CY12-14E

8/13/2019 GPPL - Jan 2014

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490

890

1220

760

3360

650

1360

780900

3690

627

873751 760

3011

576

1018 986

786.3

3366.3

3736.6

4110.2

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Q1CY10 Q2CY10 Q3CY10 Q4CY10 CY10 Q1CY11 Q2CY11 Q3CY11 Q4CY11 CY11 Q1CY12 Q2CY12 Q3CY12 Q4CY12 CY12 Q1CY13 Q2CY13 Q3CY13 Q4CY13E CY13E CY14E CY15E

Bulk Volumes (MTs in '000s)


GPPL had switched to dollar denominated tariff system from Aug-2012 onwards.

Prior to that, average blended realizations of the company were at approx. $ 7.1/MT. Post switching to dollar tariff system, realizations shoot-up by 16.9% y/y to$ 8.4/ MT in CY12. Given that the tariff hikes were made in Aug-2013 (in the range

of 7.5-15% for various cargo handling and Infra services), full impact of it would beseen in Q4CY14E and CY14E. Accordingly, we have modeled ~6% and 12% increasein tariff rates for CY13E and CY14E, respectively.

On a whole, we expect GPPL to report strong 25.3% top-line CAGR during CY12-14Eto Rs 5.8 bn.

Y E December (Rs mn) CY2011A CY2012A CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E

Container Volumes (TEUs) 610,200 570,500 644,400 715,200 793,900

Growth % -6.5% 13.0% 11.0% 11.0%

Bulk Volumes (mn tonnes) 3.69 3.01 3.37 3.74 4.11

Growth % -18.4% 11.8% 11.0% 10.0%

Crude (mn tonnes) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8

Growth % na na na 60.0%

Blendid Realization ($/MT) 7.1 8.4 8.8 9.9 10.2

Growth % 16.9% 5.7% 11.9% 3.5%

Net sales 3,661.9 3,715.4 4,588.7 5,830.8 6,732.5Growth % 1.5% 23.5% 27.1% 15.5%

EBITDA 1,520.0 1,373.8 1,930.0 2,526.0 2,921.3

Growth % -9.6% 40.5% 30.9% 15.6%

EBITDA Margin % 41.5% 37.0% 42.1% 43.3% 43.4%

Depreciation 557.8 549.4 570.3 594.0 691.5

Other Income 460.7 599.4 538.1 471.0 451.0

Finance Costs 851.9 684.2 409.2 358.4 390.8

PAT 571.0 739.6 1,488.6 2,044.6 2,290.0

Profit from Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.9 141.8

Adj. PAT 571.0 739.6 1,488.6 2,134.5 2,431.8

Growth% 29.5% 101.3% 43.4% 13.9%

PAT margin % 15.6% 19.9% 32.4% 36.6% 36.1%


8/13/2019 GPPL - Jan 2014

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GPPL pays royalty to Gujarat Maritime Board (GMB) on the basis of cargo handled.Also, after signing the Offshore Services Agreement with APMM (in Apr-12), GPPL

pays fee on cargo handled. Royalty paid to GMB would increase 20% once everythree years, up till the end of concession period. Currently, GPPL pays royalty charges

of 5% for Solid and 10% for liquid products to GMB. Additionally, yearly lease rentof Rs 2.96 mn is paid to GMB (lease rates to increase once every 3 years by 20%).

Also, as per the Offshore Services Agreement with APM Terminals, GPPL pays fee of$0.2 per 16 tonnes on Bulk Cargo volumes and $1 per TEU handled on Container

Terminal business.

Currently royalty, as % of net sales stand at ~3%.

After considering delays in capex execution, we expect GPPL to focus more on

bringing operational efficiencies in to play in CY14E. EBITDA margin expansion trendis likely to continue on the back of higher volumes and realizations, better mix,more of fixed costs at the port being covered. Accordingly, EBITDA margins would

expansion from 37.0% in CY12 to 43.3% in CY14E. In other words, EBITDA of thecompany would report 35.6% CAGR during CY12-14E. In-line with EBITDA marginmovement, PAT margins are also likely to expand. With capex delays, there is a

possibility of existing debt being repaid (thereby interest expenses would decline

y/y to Rs 358.4 mn in CY14E) in CY14E, resulting in some financial leverage. Also,profit from PRCL (its Associate) would add to PAT of the company. Accordingly, we

have modeled PAT margins to expand from 19.9% in CY12 to 36.6% in CY14E. Inother PAT would report 69.9% CAGR during CY12-14E to Rs 2.1 bn.

Balance Sheet & Cash FlowsCapex Funding Update: GPPL has an unlevered Balance Sheet currently, as they

repaid large portion of o/s debt in CY12. We expect GPPL to end CY13E and CY14Ewith o/s debt of Rs 2.8 bn and Rs 2.7 bn (indicating D/E ratio of 0.2x), respectively.Our lower debt level assumption factors in delays in capex spends (we modeled

capex spends to commence from Q4CY14E onwards).

We view this delay in capex to be a boon for the company (from balance sheetstress perspective), as the company would generate Rs 8.7 bn of Free Cash Flowsduring CY13-15E and majority of it could be used towards capex funding. This wouldtranslate to minimal debt requirements and as a result, we expect D/E ratio to be atcomfortable 0.2x levels.

Ports in our view happen to be more of sticky business. Loss of Maersk business inCY12 (till then the company was enjoying a healthy 15 days working capital cycle)prompted company to go ahead and fetch new clients. In order to attract new clients,we sense that company might have followed a bit of lenient working capital cyclemodel (also the D/E ratio is maintained at comfortable level), resulting in WC cycleexpansion (to 25 days in CY13E). With new clients ramping-up business, we expect

the WC cycle to stabilize at current levels.

Y E December (in days) CY2011A CY2012A CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E

Inventory Days 6 11 12 12 12

Debtor Days 32 41 43 36 35

Creditors Days 22 31 30 25 22

Working Capital Days 15 20 25 24 25Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research

Strong Cash Flow generation potential of Rs

8.7 bn during CY12-14E

Working Capital Update:

8/13/2019 GPPL - Jan 2014

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ValuationAt CMP of Rs 62, GPPL is trading at CY13E and CY14E, P/E multiple of 20.3x and14.1x, respectively.

Pipavav Port has been awarded to GPPL on 30 years concession agreement, which

is likely to end on Sep 30, 2028.

In order to arrive at fair value of the port operations, we have used DiscountedCash flow to Equity holders (DCFE) valuation methodology. While using the DCFEmethodology, we have used discounting rate of 11% to value future cash flows to

equity holders. Also, we have added the depreciated replacement value (Portoperations value while handing over the operations) to arrive business value fromport operations of Rs 71/share.

We have valued PRCL, the associate company by assigning 10x to its FY15E EPS to

arrive at per share value of Rs 4/share. We have used Sum-of-the-Parts based (SoTP)based valuation methodology to arrive at CY14E based price target of Rs 75/share.Given that stock is currently trading at 21% discount to its CY14E based price target

of Rs 75/share, we recommend BUY rating on the stock.



Trading at 16.6% discount to CY14E SoTP

based PT of Rs 73

Risks to our estimates Losing business from any of the Shipping lines would be a negative risk to our

estimates.

Government's proposal to regulate tariffs for non-major ports

Sharp Rupee appreciation vs. USD would risk our revenue growth estimates(as ~75% of revenues booked are in USD).

Expansion plans (inc. of Bulk berths) may get prolonged due to delays in gettingthe environmental clearances (despite approval of the recommendation made,actual receipt of the clearance letter has not happened) and other reasons.

Particulars (Rs mn) CY13E CY14E CY15E

PBIT 1,897.8 2,402.9 2,680.8

Add: Depreciation 570.3 594.0 691.5

Less: Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0

Less: Changes in WC (19.6) (89.6) 7.6

Less: Capex (1,190.5) (857.5) (5,647.5)

Cash flow avialable to Eq. & Debt. 1,258.0 2,049.9 (2,267.6)

Less: Interest Expenses (409.2) (358.4) (390.8)

Less: Debt Raised/ (Paid) (400.0) (100.0) 1,691.8

Free Cash flow to Equityholders 448.8 1,591.5 (966.6)

Valuation Val. MethodPV of Cash

Flows

Per Share

Val.Value Per Share- from Operations DFCE Discount Rate- 11% 34,083 71

PRCL (38% stake) P/E FY15E P/E - 10x 2,389 4

Target Price Per Share 75

8/13/2019 GPPL - Jan 2014

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Income statement


Net sales 3,661.9 3,715.4 4,588.7 5,830.8 6,732.5

Growth % 1.5% 23.5% 27.1% 15.5%

Operating Expenses 1,078.2 1,180.7 1,338.8 1,742.1 1,986.0

Employee cost 341.4 360.8 432.0 513.1 623.4

Other Operating Expenses 722.2 800.2 887.9 1,049.5 1,201.7

To ta l O pera tin g E xpe nses 2 ,1 41 .9 2 ,3 41 .6 2 ,6 58 .7 3 ,3 04 .8 3 ,8 11 .2

EBITDA 1,520.0 1,373.8 1,930.0 2,526.0 2,921.3

Growth % -9.6% 40.5% 30.9% 15.7%

EBITDA Margin % 41.5% 37.0% 42.1% 43.3% 43.4%

Depreciation 557.8 549.4 570.3 594.0 691.5

EBIT 1,422.9 1,423.8 1,897.8 2,402.9 2,680.8

EBIT Margin % 38.9% 38.3% 41.4% 41.2% 39.8%

Other Income 460.7 599.4 538.1 471.0 451.0

F inance Costs & Prior Period Adj. 851.9 684.2 409.2 35 8.4 3 90.8

PBT 571.0 739.6 1,488.6 2,044.6 2,290.0

Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Effective tax rate % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

PAT 571.0 739.6 1,488.6 2,044.6 2,290.0

Profit from JV/ associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.9 141.8

Adjusted PAT 571.0 739.6 1,488.6 2,134.5 2,431.9

Growth% 29.5% 101.3% 43.4% 13.9%

PAT margin % 15.6% 19.9% 32.4% 36.6% 36.1%

Balance sheet


Share Capital 4,235.6 4,834.4 4,834.4 4,834.4 4,834.4

Reserves & Surplus 3,694.1 7,283.0 8, 77 1.6 10,906.1 13,338.0

Net Worth 7,929.7 12,117.4 13,606.0 15,740.5 18,172.4

L on g- ter m D eb t & O th . L ia b. 7 ,1 69 .6 3 ,3 67 .9 3 ,1 47 .7 3 ,07 0. 7 4 ,763 .5

Total Liabilities 15,099.2 1 5,485.4 1 6,7 53.7 18,811.2 22,935.9

Gross Block 17,514.8 17,821.4 19,011.9 19,869.4 25,516.9

Ac cum al ated D epre cia ti on 4 ,8 17 .2 5 ,3 59 .7 5 ,9 30 .0 6 ,5 24 .0 7 ,2 15 .5

Net Block 12,697.7 12,461.8 13,082.0 13,345.5 18,301.5

Capital WIP 90.5 1,577.3 297.6 214.4 1,411.9

Investments 830.0 830.0 2,630.0 4,530.0 2,530.0

Current Assets 1,280.4 1,164.7 1,502.5 1,655.7 1,720.9

Inventories 57.0 114.5 153.0 194.4 224.4

Sundry Debtors 323.6 418.1 548.1 583.1 654.5

Cash & Bank Balance 705.3 510.7 676.4 743.3 706.9

Loans & advances 183.1 118.5 120.0 130.0 130.0

Other Current assets 11.4 2.9 5.0 5.0 5.0

Cu rren t L ia bi lit ies & Pro v. 74 3.0 1 ,14 8. 8 1 ,3 38 .4 1, 51 4.4 1 ,6 08 .3

Current Liabilities 667.8 971.6 1,096.2 1,158.1 1,196.9

Provisions 75.2 177.3 242.2 356.3 411.4

Net Current Assets 537.4 15.9 164.1 141.3 112.6

Other Assets 943.7 600.4 580.0 5 80.0 580.0

Total Assets 15,099.2 15,485.4 16,753.7 18,811.2 22,935.9

Cash flow


PBT (bef. Prior period adj.) 57 1.0 73 9.6 1,488.6 2,044.6 2 ,290.0Depreciation 557.8 549.4 570.3 594.0 691.5

Interest Income (123.0) (77.8) (75.0) (61.0) (65.0)

Other Non Cash Charges 837.8 644.3 409.2 358.4 390.8

Changes in Working Capital (1,201.2) 849.2 19.6 89.6 (7.6)

Tax (34.5) (83.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0

C ash F lo w from Operations 6 07 .9 2 ,62 1.3 2 ,4 12 .7 3, 025 .6 3 ,2 99 .7

Capital Expenditure (532.1) (1,751.0) 89.2 (774.3) (6,845.0)

Free Cash Flow 1,139.9 4,372.3 2,323.6 3,799.9 10,144.7

Interest Inc. & (Purch.)/ Sale of Cur. Invest. 521.8 123.2 (1,695.0) (1,726.2) 2,208.0

Cas h f lo w f ro m I nv es tm en ts ( 10.3) ( 1,627. 9) ( 1,605. 8) ( 2,500. 4) ( 4,637. 1)

Equity Capital raised 0.0 3,500.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Proceeds/ (Repayments) of borrowings (1,214.7)(3,721.2) (232.0) (100.0) 1,691.8

Finance Costs (926.4) (667.0) (409.2) (358.4) (390.8)

C as h f lo w f ro m F in an ci ng ( 2, 14 1. 1) ( 88 8. 0) ( 64 1. 2) ( 45 8. 4) 1, 30 1. 0

Net change in cash (1,543.5) 105.4 165.7 66.8 (36.3)

C ash at the beginning of t he year 1 ,9 48 .8 4 05 .3 5 10 .7 6 76 .4 74 3. 3

Cash at the end of the year 405.3 510.7 676.4 743.3 706.9

Key ratios

Y E December CY2011A CY2012A CY2013E CY2014E CY2015E

EPS (Rs) 1.3 1.6 3.1 4.4 5.0Cash EPS (Rs) 2.7 2.9 4.3 5.5 6.2

DPS (Rs) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

BVPS (Rs) 37.4 36.9 37.4 42.0 50.8

ROCE (%) 9.6% 8.3% 10.7% 12.4% 11.9%

ROE (%) 7.2% 6.1% 10.9% 13.0% 12.6%

RoIC (%) 3.6% 4.4% 8.2% 10.1% 9 .3%

Inventory Days 6 11 12 12 12

Debtor Days 32 41 43 36 35

Creditors Days 22 31 30 25 22

Working Capital Days 15 20 25 24 25

PER (x) 46.3x 38.0x 20.3x 14.1x 12.4x

P/BV (x) 1.7x 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 1.2x

EV/EBITDA (x) 21.4x 22.4x 15.8x 11.3x 11.0x

M-Cap/Sales (x) 6.7x 6.8x 6.1x 4.9x 4.3x

Debt/Equity (x) 0.8x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x

Debt/EBITDA (x) 4.4x 2.2x 1.5x 1.1x 1.5x


Financial statements

8/13/2019 GPPL - Jan 2014

15/15



Disclaimer:

The projections and the forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant

uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on whichthe projections are forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of

time. All the projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by authors of this report independently. All the forecasts were not

prepared with a view towards compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles.

This report is for information purpose only and this document / material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or

subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract orcommitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on material contained herein. It is for the general information of the clients of INSPL.

Though disseminated to the clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive this report at the same time. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or

take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of individual clients. Persons who may receive this document should consider andindependently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her / their particular circumstances and if necessary seek professional / financial advice. Any such person

shall be responsible for conducting his / her/ its/ their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating

the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this document. The price and value of the investment referred to in this document / materialand income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit / loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance.

Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subjected to change without

notice. INSPL accepts no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of use of this report.

This report / document has been prepared by INSPL based upon the information available to the public and sources believed to be reliable. Though utmost care has

been taken to ensure its accuracy, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate. INSPL has reviewed this report and, in so far as itincludes current and historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.

Following table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter;

This information is subject to change without any prior notice. INSPL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required

from time to time. Nevertheless, INSPL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide

information in response to specific client queries.

Disclosure of Interest Statement1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock Yes

3. Broking relationship with company covered No

4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered No

IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited

601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007.Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899

e-mail: [email protected]|Website: www.indianivesh.in

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