Greenskies 2007

Australian airspace

8th BITRE Transport Colloquium

19 June 2008Aviation and

Climate Change

Manager, Strategic Planning

Airservices Australia

Dr Robert Porteous

BITRE 2008

• Aviation Emissions

• Industry outlook • Global• Australia

• Options • Short-term• Medium-term• Long-term• Policy

Aviation and Climate Change

Outline

BITRE 2008

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS

“ One of the most readily visible signs of human presence, is the occurrence of contrails from aircraft in the upper atmosphere. They …. can be seen over virtually all parts of the world as white streaks across the sky. "

Australian astronautDr Andy Thomas.

Contrails over Europe

BITRE 2008

Aviation CO2 Emissions

2 percent of CO2 Emissions

14 percent of Transport CO2 Emissions

Uplift 2- 4 times700 million tonnes per annum

Visible Impact

BITRE 2008

Aviation and Emissions

Phases of Flight

kg CO2 per min:

» Taxi 30» Take-off 400-

500» Cruise 100-

150

Taxi – 30 kg/min

Take-off – 400-500 kg/min

Cruise – 100-150 kg/min

SOx

NOx

CO

Noise

Unburnt hydrocarbons

Particulates

CO2 H2O

NOx

BITRE 2008

Aircraft FuelEfficiency

40% reduction over 20 years

» US – Older fleet» Average aircraft

size steady or decreasing

» Australia – Modern» Average aircraft

size generally increasing

BITRE 2008

Global Industry Outlook

Strong growth:» Growing demand» Greater

passenger numbers

» Vigorous growth of low-cost carriers

» Greater utilisation of secondary airports

BITRE 2008

• Profitability uncertain

• Consolidation • Airlines• Routes

• Credit squeeze• Rising fuel prices• Environment• Congestion• Safety• Skills shortage

Global Industry Outlook

BITRE 2008

» Increased growth» Profits steady » Strong Aussie $» Consolidation» Low cost carriers

» Efficient ATM» Modern fleet» Efficient

technologies

AustralianIndustry Outlook

BITRE 2008

Options for the future

» Short-term» Medium-term» Long-term» Policy options

BITRE 2008

Short-Term Options

» Modernise fleet» Winglets

» Carbon Offsets» Efficient ATM» Air Traffic Flow

Management» Research

» ASPIRE» SESAR

BITRE 2008

Medium-Term Options

» Fleet upgrades» Alt Fuel trials

» Gate-to-Gate» 4D Trajectories» Flexible Use of

Airspace» Collaborative

Decision Making

» Policy – Noise vs Emissions

BITRE 2008

Long-Term Options

» Efficient Operations

» Global Gate-to-Gate

» Regional Upper Air Space

» Alternative fuel and engines

BITRE 2008

Policy Responses

» Incentives for collaboration

» Taxation» Emissions

trading schemes:

– Global not industry

– Research» International

approach

BITRE 2008

The Future

Aviation outlook:

» Cautious optimism

Emissions:

» Some short-term response but look to other industries too

Alternative Fuels:

» A role for Australia?