Transport infrastructure challenges ahead

Glen Malam

Statistical Officer – BITRE

BITRE Transport Colloquium

18 – 19 June 2008

Transport infrastructure challenges ahead

• What do we mean by transport infrastructure?• Recent trends• Forecast transport activity• Challenges ahead

Infrastructure Australia Act 2008

Nationally significant infrastructure includes:a) transport infrastructure; and b) energy infrastructure; andc) communications infrastructure; andd) water infrastructure;

Infrastructure Australia Act 2008

Nationally significant infrastructure includes:a) transport infrastructure; and b) energy infrastructure; andc) communications infrastructure; andd) water infrastructure;in which investment or further investment will materiallyimprove national productivity.

Transport infrastructure challenges ahead

• What do we mean by transport infrastructure?• Recent trends• Forecast transport activity• Challenges ahead

Infrastructure construction expenditure – mostly on roads

Source: Engineering Construction Activity, Australia (ABS cat. no. 8762.0)

Transport infrastructure construction expenditure2005-06 prices

Roads and bridges

Railways

Ports and harbours0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07

$ b

illi

on

Infrastructure – public road-related expenditure actual expenditure

Source: Public Road Related Expenditure and Revenue in Australia (BITRE Information Sheet 27)

Public road-related expenditure

current prices

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1985-86 1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04

$ b

illi

on

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Infrastructure – public road-related expenditure road construction price index

Source: Public Road Related Expenditure and Revenue in Australia (BITRE Information Sheet 27)

Public road-related expenditure

current prices

Road construction price index

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1985-86 1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04

$ b

illi

on

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Ind

ex

Infrastructure – public road-related expenditure adjusted for road construction prices

Source: Public Road Related Expenditure and Revenue in Australia (BITRE Information Sheet 27)

Public road-related expenditure2004-05 prices

adjusted by road construction price

index

current prices

Road construction price index

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1985-86 1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04

$ b

illi

on

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Ind

ex

Infrastructure – private sector construction

Source: Engineering Construction Activity, Australia (ABS cat. no. 8762.0)

Infrastructure construction expenditure on roads and bridges

2005-06 prices

private sector for private sector

private sector for public sector

public sector

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07

$ b

illi

on

Transport infrastructure challenges ahead

• What do we mean by transport infrastructure?• Recent trends• Forecast transport activity• Challenges ahead

Domestic non-bulk freight up 80% by 2020

Source: Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia (BTRE Report 112), updated

Non-bulk freight

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Mill

ion

ton

ne

kilo

me

tre

s

Aviation

Shipping

Rail

Road

Forecasts

Domestic bulk freight up almost 60% by 2020

Source: Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia (BTRE Report 112), updated

Bulk freight

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Mill

ion

ton

ne

kilo

me

tre

s

Shipping

Rail

Road

Forecasts

Container port traffic more than double by 2020

Source: Container and Ship Movements Through Australian Ports (BTRE Working Paper 65)

Containerised trade for major ports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Forecasts

Sta

ndard

co

nta

iners

(m

illio

n)

Fremantle

Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

Brisbane

Urban road traffic up 40% by 2020

Source: Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities (BITRE Working Paper 71)

Capital city vehicle traffic

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Kilom

etr

es (

billion)

Motorcycles

Buses

Articulated trucks

Rigid trucks

Light commercials

Cars

Forecasts

Transport infrastructure challenges ahead

• What do we mean by transport infrastructure?• Recent trends• Forecast transport activity• Challenges ahead

Key transport infrastructure questions• Do we currently have enough or is there a deficit?• What infrastructure will be needed in the future and where?• Who should be doing the spending?• How to manage construction industry overload?