GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

Gas Regional Investment Plans

Investment WS – 29th Sep 2011Investment WS – 29th Sep 2011

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

Index

2

1. GRIP South Region: TSOs vision2. Content of the Report: main chapters Bottom up approach: IP cross border projects Top down approach:

o Market characteristicso Security of Supplyo Market integration

3. Conclusions. Next Steps

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

Tool for ensuring business development Tool for ensuring business development

CONVERGENCE and

COHERENCE

CONVERGENCE and

COHERENCE

GRIP South Region: TSOs purpose

GRIPGRIPGRIPGRIP

EIPEIPEIPEIP

TYNDPTYNDP

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

Cooperating since 2006, the added value for this stage, GRIP South Region under ENTSOG umbrella, is:

toto highlight the valuehighlight the value of the of the North-South North-South Corridor in Western Europe and each of Corridor in Western Europe and each of the cross border projectsthe cross border projects included in the included in the

TYNDP,TYNDP, to to achieve the European Energy achieve the European Energy objectives for 2020 and beyondobjectives for 2020 and beyond..

South Region GRIP seen as a regional zoom of South Region GRIP seen as a regional zoom of TYNDP progressing towards the implementation of TYNDP progressing towards the implementation of the Energy European priorities (EIP)the Energy European priorities (EIP)

South Region GRIP seen as a regional zoom of South Region GRIP seen as a regional zoom of TYNDP progressing towards the implementation of TYNDP progressing towards the implementation of the Energy European priorities (EIP)the Energy European priorities (EIP)

GRIP South Region: added value

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

Index

5

1. GRIP South Region: TSOs vision2. Content of the Report: main chapters Bottom up approach: IP cross border projects Top down approach:

o Market characteristicso Security of Supplyo Market integration

3. Conclusions. Next Steps

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region6

Content of the REPORT

Main CHAPTERS

3. CURRENT GAS MARKET IN THE SOUTH REGION. CURRENT GAS MARKET IN THE SOUTH REGION3.1 Regional overview: South Region

4. INTERCONNECTION PROJECTS. INTERCONNECTION PROJECTS5. TEN-YEAR GAS MARKET IN THE SOUTH REGION. TEN-YEAR GAS MARKET IN THE SOUTH REGION6. SECURITY of SUPPLY. SECURITY of SUPPLY7. MARKET INTEGRATION. MARKET INTEGRATION

Main CHAPTERS

3. CURRENT GAS MARKET IN THE SOUTH REGION. CURRENT GAS MARKET IN THE SOUTH REGION3.1 Regional overview: South Region

4. INTERCONNECTION PROJECTS. INTERCONNECTION PROJECTS5. TEN-YEAR GAS MARKET IN THE SOUTH REGION. TEN-YEAR GAS MARKET IN THE SOUTH REGION6. SECURITY of SUPPLY. SECURITY of SUPPLY7. MARKET INTEGRATION. MARKET INTEGRATION

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

Top down approachTop down approachTop down approachTop down approachMethodology of work

7

11

DEMAND SUPPLY SECURITY of SUPPLY MARKET INTEGRATION

DEMAND SUPPLY SECURITY of SUPPLY MARKET INTEGRATION

Bottom up approachBottom up approachBottom up approachBottom up approach22

IBERIAN-FRENCH CORRIDOR Western Axis: FID Eastern Axis: non FID MIBGAS Portugal-Spain IPs: non FID

IBERIAN-FRENCH CORRIDOR Western Axis: FID Eastern Axis: non FID MIBGAS Portugal-Spain IPs: non FID

Convergence of TYNDP &&Convergence of TYNDP && GRIP &&

EIP &

PCI

GRIP &&

EIP &

PCI

Focusing in the criteria proposed by EC to determine Gas Priority Projects: Diversification of sources and routes and counterparts; Increase interconnection level, Increase of market integration Reduction of market concentration

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region8

Bottom up approach: Specific IP cross border projectsSpecific IP cross border projectsThe GRIP South Region is focused on cross-border projects stressing its role creating the internal European market.

TSOs envision the GRIP “integrating and coordinating at regional level the individual developments on infrastructures needed for increasing cross border capacity elaborated by TSOs at national level”.

Provide update on the current cross border IP projects Larrau and Biriatou and Badajoz/Campo Maior and Tuy/Valença do Minho

Specific further analysis on non-FID cross-border projects included in TYNDP: Technical description, functionality,…

MidCat 3rd IP Portugal-Spain

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region9

Top down approach: Market characteristicsMarket characteristics

DEMAND• Gas market composition• Role of gas-fired for power generation• Peak vs. Average: modulation,…

SUPPLY• Share of LNG/NG• Diversification

DEMAND• Gas market composition• Role of gas-fired for power generation• Peak vs. Average: modulation,…

SUPPLY• Share of LNG/NG• Diversification

Convergence of TYNDP &&Convergence of TYNDP && GRIP &&

EIP &

PCI

GRIP &&

EIP &

PCI

LIQUEFACTION SHIPPING LNG TERMINALLNG RouteLNG Route

Source Source of of

Natural gasNatural gasNG routeNG route

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region10

The GRIP South Region includes a resilience network assessment considering the special characteristics of the Region and under specific risk scenarios as the following:

1. LNG Disruption

2. North Africa disruption

3. Algerian disruption (NG & LNG)

4. Low deliverability of UGS facilities.

Top down approach: Security of SupplySecurity of Supply

The modelling of the network: will be done using the ENTSOG tool, and the GLE study “LNG disruption” is taken for granted

The modelling of the network: will be done using the ENTSOG tool, and the GLE study “LNG disruption” is taken for granted LNG Supply Disruption

Scenarios

LNG Supply Disruption

Scenarios

Annual LNG Volumes

Infrastructure’s Technical Capacity

Winter Load FactorWinter Load Factor

Daily Send-out from LNG Terminal

LNGBALANCE

NET

WO

RK

Sim

ulat

ion feedback

LNGLNGBALANCEBALANCE

QUOTAQUOTAper exporting countryper exporting country

NET

WO

RK

Sim

ulat

ion

LACK of LACK of LNGLNG

Daily Send-out from LNG Terminal

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region11

Top down approach: Market integrationMarket integration

The GRIP South Region investigates the contribution of the Iberian-France Corridor to the European internal market focus on:

Interconnect the Mediterranean

Area and the Northern supply

Corridor

The challenge for the following years are:1. a well-meshed network,2. enabling the access to different supply sources,3. facilitating the establishment of diversified suppliers’ portfolios,4. improving its robustness and making it more flexible.

The challenge for the following years are:1. a well-meshed network,2. enabling the access to different supply sources,3. facilitating the establishment of diversified suppliers’ portfolios,4. improving its robustness and making it more flexible.

Evolution of Algerian pipeline gas influenceEvolution of Russian gas influence

““IBERIANIBERIAN--FRENCH CorridorFRENCH Corridor””

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

Index

12

1. GRIP South Region: TSOs vision2. Content of the Report: main chapters Bottom up approach: IP cross border projects Top down approach:

o Market characteristicso Security of Supplyo Market integration

3. Conclusions. Next Steps

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

TSOs challenge: Publication of the document in October-November 2011.

TSOs challenge: Publication of the document in October-November 2011.

13

TSOs in the South Region collaborating since 2006, want to continue their close cooperation promoting interconnection capacity.Investment in gas infrastructures is a key issue in the construction of the European Internal Gas Market, and, in this construction, the TSOs have a vital role to play.

TSOs in the South Region want to use this GRIP to give a clear picture of the different infrastructures projects so far identified, focusing on the interconnection projects, showing the capacity created by development on its.

Conclusions. Next Steps

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

GRIP South RegionGRIP South Region

Gas Regional Investment Plans

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention