GRIP SouthGRIP South

South Region

Second Edition

South Region

Second Edition

Gas Regional Investment Plan

SGRI – 15 November 2013SGRI – 15 November 2013

GRIP SouthGRIP South

Table of content

2

1.Perimeter / objectives2.Content

1. Analysis of the Demand in the South region

2. Supply assets and needs of the Region

3. Infrastructure Project developments in the Region

4. Network Assessments and Analyses

5. Projects answering to needs identified

6. Conclusion

3.Planning

GRIP SouthGRIP South

Perimeter /Objectives3 Countries (FR, SP, PT) and 4 TSOs Main drivers/objectives •Complementing the EU-TYNDP 2013•Feedbacks received: updated information / TYNDP More harmonization (with ENTSOG assistance) More communication/consultation More comprehensive approach on the system

needs and on remedies (projects)

“The strategic concept of the North-South Corridor in Western Europe, that is to better interconnect the Mediterranean area and thus supplies from Africa and the Northern supply Corridor with supplies from Norway and Russia.” (EC, EIP for 2020)

• EU energy policy, “Trans-European energy infrastructure” (17/04/13)

GRIP SouthGRIP South4

GRIP South – DemandANALYSES (2011)

Weight/size of the South Region:18% of EU gas demand

Focus on the Power generation sector:

82%

18%

South Region

Residential &Commercial &Industrial & OthersPower generation

Total gas demand 908.157

95%

5%

France

Total 478.215 GWh

62%

38%Portugal

Total 56.799 GWh

71%

29%

Spain

Total 373.061 GWh

GWh

9%

56%

4%1%

6%

14%

2%

Fossil Fuels9%

South Region: 855.855 GWhHydroNuclearRenewablesLigniteCoalGasOil

24%

25%19%

30%

2%

Fossil Fuels51%

Portugal : 48.423 GWh

9%

78%4%

2%

6%

1%

Fossil Fuels9%

France : 524.947 GWh

12%

21%

21%

3%

12%

29%

2%

Fossil Fuels 46%

Spain : 264.485 GWh

Electricity generation by technology (ENTSO-E)

Growing sector Lost of competitiveness /

coal Differences / countries

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GRIP South – DemandOther analyses & Forecasts

Modulation analysis(Ratio Day/Year in 2011)

Demand forecasts: Updated: yearly volumes, peak days and cold period Analyzed:

- By sectors (power gen.) - Evolution / TYNDP

Residential + Commercial + IndustrialPower Generation

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GRIP South – SupplyOverview

Imports (99%) 48 % LNG (16% at EU level)

Very diversified portfolio (14) but not homogeneous by countries

Word LNG market but currently more attractive prices in Asia

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GRIP South – SupplyNeeds and forecast

Additional Gas Supply (EU)- Non conventional gas EU?- Biogas LT- LNG - Local (by pipe) conventional reserves

Infrastructures: “EU Priority corridors”

Decline of EU gas production

North-South Corridor to better interconnect Portugal, Spain and supplies from Algeria to the Northern supply Corridor with supplies from Norway and Russia.

Proven conventional gas reserves , in 103 TWh

Growth in demand (world, uncertainties on LT for EU)

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GRIP South – Projects

5%

17%

29%

40%

4%5%

Projects in the South RegionLNG - FID

LNG - NON FID

Pipeline including CS - FID

Pipeline including CS - NON FID

Storage Facility - FID

Storage Facility - NON FID

78 infrastructure projects (/302 identified by ENTSOG) :

TRA-N-044

TRA-N-045

TRA-N-046

TRA-F-039

TRA-N-256

TRA-N-047

TRA-N-254

TRA-N-253

TRA-N-255 TRA-N-269

TRA-N-257

TRA-N-043

TRA-F-037

TRA-F-038

TRA-F-250

TRA-F-251

TRA-N-252

LNG-F-210

UGS-F-004

TRA-F-040

TRA-F-040 TRA-N-048

UGS-F-265

UGS-N-002

UGS-N-003

UGS-N-264

TRA-N-258

LNG-N-227 LNG-N-226

LNG-N-225

TRA-N-041

LNG-N-223

UGS-N-204

LNG-N-177* LNG-F-178* LNG-N-179* LNG-N-174*

TRA-F-164*

TRA-N-280* TRA-F-170*

TRA-N-281* TRA-N-168*

TRA-F-181*

TRA-F-171*

TRA-F-173*

TRA-N-159*

TRA-N-278* TRA-N-279* TRA-N-282*

TRA-F-186

TRA-F-169* TRA-F-160*

TRA-F-180*

TRA-F-158*

LNG-N-182*

TRA-F-175* TRA-N-176* TRA-N-161*

LNG-N-153* LNG-N-154* LNG-F-152*

LNG-F-151* LNG-F-150

TRA-F-156 TRA-F-155

TRA-N-167*

TRA-F-157

TRA-N-172* TRA-N-166*

TRA-N-283

TRA-N-284 TRA-N-318

TRA-N-285

TRA-N-320

UGS-F-081

(*) Spanish core network projects postponed until a new planning document is approved by the government according to Spanish Royal

Decree-Law 13/2012. No changes at Cross-border Interconnection Points Capacity

Flow direction

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

SP>PT 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

PT>SP 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

SP>PT 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 134 134

PT>SP 35 35 35 35 35 70 70 70 70 70

SP>PT 0 0 0 0 0 75 75 107 107 142

PT>SP 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 97 97 142

nFID Capacity at existing IPnFID capacity at future IP development

Mangualde (PT) / Zamora (ES) (3rd Spain / Portugal IP)

FID Capacity (GWh/d)

Badajoz (SP) / Campo Maior (PT)

Valença do Minho (PT) / Tuy (SP)1

2

I

Example

Updated (2013) breakdown FID and non FID; projected commissioning

used in the network assessment (/capacities)

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GRIP South – Assessments2017 FID

2017 non-FID

2013

2022 non-FID

2022 FID

DEMAND1-day Average Situation

In-depth analyses of the TYNDP Assessment :- Resilience assessment (severe climatic conditions + supply stress condition)- Supply source dependence- Network adaptability to supply evolution- Capacity for supply source diversification

Including additional studies and sensitivity simulations- Resilience to low LNG delivery- Spread of Algerian/Russian gas through Europe- ...

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GRIP South – Assessments

Additional analyses & information: - Divergence of prices, - IP capacity utilization and subscription- PT: Fulfillment of N-1 criterion- Odourisation

Montoir Fos

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GWh/j

Flux moyen mensuel Capacité technique réduite

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2010 2011 2012 2013

GWh/j

Flux moyen mensuel Capactité technique réduite

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GRIP South – remedy projectsFID projects: Western axis

Open Season (2009/2010) for developments in 2013 & 2015: Long Term commitments enabled infrastructure developmentRemaining Short Term capacities are marketed jointly at common IPs

Larrau : 5,5Gm3/Year (2013)

Biriatou : 2Gm3/Year (2015)

* Data from GRIP 2011-2020 updating the date of commisioning

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GRIP South – remedy projectsNon FID PROJECTS ANSWERING NEEDS IN THE SOUTH REGION

Corridor to better interconnect:-Spain - Portugal -Spain - France -France North - France South-Region South - Rest of Europe

TYNDP 13-22 Code Project*

Length(km)

Diameter(")

Compressor Power(MW)

Project Status

Commisioning Date

TSO/COUNTRY

PT-ES Interconnector Cantanhede Compressor Station

TRA-N-284 12 Non-FID 2019 Q4

PT-ES Interconnector Pipeline Cantanhede-Mangualde

TRA-N-285 67 28 Non-FID 2021 Q4

PT-ES Interconnector Pipeline Spanish Border-Celorico

TRA-N-283 158 28 Non-FID 2017 Q4

Interconnection ES-PT (3rd IP) TRA-N-168 86 28 Non-FID 2017 Q4

CS Zamora power increase TRA-N-159 23 Non-FID 2018 Q4

* for further information about each project, see annex A Ten Year Network Development Plan 2013-2022 Document

RenPortugal

EnagasSpain

Infrastructure

3rd Interconnection Point between Portugal and Spain

1

2

3

4

5

TYNDP 13-22 Code Project*

Length(km)

Diameter(")

Compressor Power(MW)

Project Status

Commisioning Date

TSO/COUNTRY

Iberian-French corridor: Eastern Axis-Midcat Project (CS Martorell)

TRA-N-176 36 Non-FID 2020 Q4

Iberian-French corridor: Eastern Axis-Midcat Project (Pipeline Figueras-French border)

TRA-N-161 30 36 Non-FID 2020 Q4

Iberian-French corridor: Eastern Axis-Midcat Project

Pipeline Spanish Border-Barbaira + CS Barbaira

Iberian-French corridor: Eastern Axis-Midcat Project

Pipeline Lupiac-Barran

CS Monpellier 15/20

CS Saint Martin de Crau 10

* for further information about each project, see annex A Ten Year Network Development Plan 2013-2022 Document

EnagasSpain

TIGFFrance

32 10120 2020

TRA-N-252 28 32 Non-FID 2020

TRA-N-252

TRA-N-256 Non-FID 2020GRTgazFrance

Iberian-French Corridor: Eastern Axis MidCat Project

Infrastructure

Non-FID

6

7

8

9

10

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North - South Gas Corridor in Western Europe Gas Projects of Common Interest (PCI) in the South Region

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Conclusion

South Region TSOs are cooperating to increase market integration (coordinated capacity developments, joint offers and services).

An upper level of market integration needs significant investments

Due to lack of visibility on gas market trends in EU, market players are less keen to commit on long term basis.

The Regulation on “guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure” (347/2013 of 17/04/2013) supports these developments through accelerated permit granting, improved Regulatory treatment and Financial support.

Nevertheless, the role of the natural gas has to be affirmed in the energy policies in order to secure the cost-effectiveness of these investments for the market.

GRIP SouthGRIP South15

ENTSOG TYNDP publication : 21st February 2013 Communication / consultation

o Continuous and extensive consultation for identifying and updating projects and needs

o GRI South meeting(s): IG & SG meetings (5)o ENTSOG WS : 26th November Consultation documento Regulators: “Draft GRIP”o Feedbacks after publication

“Draft GRIP” beginning of Decembero to finalize with last results/verifications o + last feedbacks to introduce

Publication : January/February 2014

Planning

GRIP SouthGRIP South

Thank you for your attention