Growth, Commodities, and Trumpian Uncertainty: What’s next...

Growth, Commodities, and Trumpian Uncertainty: What’s next for the economy?

Minerals North Conference

Houston, BC

April 27, 2018

BC Mining Sector Quick Facts

$5.3 B

Metallic Mineral Exports to International Markets• 12% of total goods exports• + 60% since 2008

2.9%Share of B.C. GDP

• Resource Extraction• Related Manufacturing

33.9kAverage LFS Employment (2016/17)

• Mining extraction• Related Manufacturing• 1.4% of total BC Employment

Topics

• Global Economic State

• Commodity Market Trends

• Canadian Outlook

• B.C. and Northern growth prospects

Purchasing Managers index points to growth

-2-101234567

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Services

Manufacturing

0 = no change from prior month

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Mar. 2018

Markit Purchasing Managers’ Indexes

Mostly synchronous upswings; Europe leads

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2015 2016 2017 2018

Euro area

US

Japan

China

0 = no change from prior month

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Mar. 2018

Markit Purchasing Managers’ Indexes

Global growth acceleration expected, strongest pace in a decade

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

World Advanced Emerging and Developing

Source: IMF April 2018 World Economic Outlook Latest: 2017

Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product (%)

Global growth acceleration expected, strongest pace in a decade

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

World Advanced Emerging and Developing

Source: IMF April 2018 World Economic Outlook Latest: 2017

Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product (%)

012345

2016 2018 2020

Leading indicators point to steady growth, upturn in some markets

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01

China

OECD -EuropeUS

Japan

UK

100 = LT average

Source: OECD. Latest: Feb. 2018

OECD Leading Economic Indicator

Declining yields; recent increase

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Latest

U.S.

Canada

Germany

Japan

Per cent change

Source: IMF, Bank of Canada, FRED St. Louis Fed. Note: Annual averages. Latest: Week of Mar. 9, 2018

Government 10-Year Bond Yields: Selected Economies

Domestic demand; mainstay of U.S. economy

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17

Real Final Salesto DomesticPurchasers

Real GDP

Per cent change at annual rate

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Latest: Q4-17

U.S. Economic Growth

Declining unemployment rate; wages rising faster

Per cent of labour force

Unemployment Rate: U.S.

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Hourly Median Wage Rate: U.S.

Source: U.S. BLS. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Feb-18 Source: FRB Atlanta. Latest: Jan-18

Per cent change, y/y

3

4

5

6

7


No recession near term

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17

Per cent

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Latest: Dec-17

U.S. Leading Economic Indicator

Fed rate increases: 3 in 2018; 3 in 2019

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

10-yBondFed funds

10-yBond FFed fundsFForecast

Per cent

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, WSJ Feb. 2018 forecast. Note: Actuals are monthly averages. F = Forecast

U.S. 10y T-Bond Yield and Fed Funds Rate

Commodity prices move with economic cycle

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

Energy

Agr

met mins

precious metals

Global GDP (R )

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Latest: 2017

Price Index, % change % change

Key commodity and mining prices jump

020406080

100120


Crude - WTI

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000


Copper$/mt

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


Aluminum$/dmtu

Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjustedLatest: Feb-18

USD/barrel

020406080

100120


Coal$/mt, Aus FOB

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

World Bank Forecast

Metals Price Index, USD basis

Source: World Bank Outlook, Central 1. Note: USD Latest: Feb/18

Metal prices reflect global economic cycles and supply

Financial Crisis

Production/supply glutChina growth fears

Peak China growth

Source: IMF, World Bank, Central 1.

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

WorldChina

GDP Growth (%), 2017 – 2020 estimate/forecast

Steady China growth, unlikely to drive commodity price surge

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015

China ROW

Steel production (latest 2015)

Commodity Price RisksUpside• Stronger growth than expected, higher industrial production

(undersupply)• Geo-political issues and flight to safety• Re-inflation trade, interest rate, oil

Downside• Weaker trade globally due to protectionist measures• U.S.- China trade rift deepen

Oh Canada

Canada growth surge from oil-recession rebound to slow

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Actual

Forecast

Per cent change in real GDP

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union. .

Canada Economic Growth

Domestic demand main growth driver

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Q4-2014 Q4-2015 Q4-2016 Q4-2017

Imports,inventoriesExports

Final DomesticDemandGDP

Percentage points

Source: Statistics Canada.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth: Canada

Broadly based domestic growth drivers in 2017

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q4-2014 Q4-2015 Q4-2016 Q4-2017

Government

Business investment

Residential investment

Percentage points

Source: Statistics Canada.

Contributions to Real Final Domestic Demand Growth: Canada

Economy at full capacity

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

Q1-07 Q1-09 Q1-11 Q1-13 Q1-15 Q1-17

Output gap(right)Real GDP

PotentialGDP

Chained 2007 dollars – trillions Chained 2007 dollars - billions

Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada. Latest: Q4-17

Actual and Potential GDP: Canada

Interest rates on the rise

United States, %

Government benchmark yields

Source: Bloomberg, Central 1 Credit Union. Note: seasonally adjusted. Latest: March 23, 2018

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1-1-14 12-17-14 12-2-15 11-16-16 11-1-17

US 10 yr US 2 Year

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1-1-14 12-17-14 12-2-15 11-16-16 11-1-17

CAN 10 Yr CAN 2 Year

Canada, %

Higher interest rates ahead

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q1 2004 Q1 2007 Q1 2010 Q1 2013 Q1 2016 Q1-2019

Goc 10y

Target

GoC 10y

Target

Forecast

Per cent

Source: Bank of Canada, Central 1 Credit Union. Latest actual: Q4 2017. Forecast Q1 2018 to Q4 2020.

Bank of Canada Target and 10y GoC Bond Yield

CAD forecast to track near 80 cents

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

01-01-14 12-24-14 12-16-15 12-07-16 11-29-17

Daily USD/CAD

Source: Bloomberg, Central 1 Credit Union. Latest: 04/13/2018

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2010

Outlook

NAFTA Risks• Round eight of negotiations in April; political time crunch looms• Steel and Aluminum tariff exemptions expire May 1st

• (A) Modernization (tweaks) or (B) U.S. Rebalancing • (B)Contentious items – rules of origin, dispute settlement, supply

management, procurement, sunset clause• Some movement on Rules of Origin for auto content is positive• NO DEAL?

• Shift to WTO MFN tariffs: U.S.A. 3.5%, Canada 4.2%, Mexico 7.1%• Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989 returns

• Economic impact estimates on Canada:• Real GDP -0.5% to 2023, employment -25k to -50k, investment -0.9%,

CPI -0.3%• Negative for autos, fossil fuels, petrochemicals, business services, metal

products, M&E, food, and others• Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick

Other Trump effects• China- U.S trade relations

• Global steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines

• Tariffs on $50B of Chinese goods as retribution for unfair technology practices

• Trump proposing another $100B• China response of tariffs on $3 billion due

to steel, $50B warning • Deepening trade war could slow global

trade and growth

• Geo-political – North Korea, Syria

B.C. Forecast Summary

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Real GDP, % Change 3.5 3.5 4.3 3.0 2.3 3.3Nominal GDP, % Change 4.0 4.8 6.7 5.2 4.8 5.8Employment, % Change 1.2 3.2 3.7 2.2 1.4 1.6Unemployment Rate, (%) 6.2 6.0 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.0Population, % Change 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1Housing Starts (000s) 31.4 41.8 43.5 40.5 39.5 40.5Retail Sales, % Change 6.9 7.4 9.6 5.1 5.3 6.0Personal Income, % Change 6.0 4.7 5.8 6.3 5.3 6.0Net Operating Surplus Corporations, % Change -1.9 9.8 8.2 3.9 3.4 2.2Consumer Price Index, % Change 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.1

British Columbia: High growth past four years

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Real GDP

Employment

Per cent

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union. Note: 2017 real GDP is estimate, 2018-2020 Forecast.

Real GDP and Employment Growth

Hiring surges, labour market tightens up

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

1

2

3

4

2010 2012 2014 2016

Emp Ch (L) Unemp Rate (R )

Source: Statistics Canada

B.C. Labour Market Indicators (%)

90

95

100

105

110

115

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

B.C. Rest of Canada

Indexed Employment, s.a. (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

BC AB SK MB ON QC Atl

Employee Compensation Growth

Retail sales exceptionally strong

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Vancouver CMA Rest of BC


Retail Sales Growth (%) B.C. retail growth by segment

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Total Furn &Furnishing

MV andParts

Gas Excl MVand Gas

Exports surge, prices and shipments contribute

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

% change Dollar Exports


International Goods Exports $ (billions) Per CentSelect Goods Exports Sales ($mil) % change

2016 2017 2016 2017

Total of all merchandise 38,776 43,705 9.2 12.7

Food 1,642 1,601 6.2 -2.5

Energy 7,573 11,013 29.1 45.4

Raw metals/minerals 2,962 2,997 -10.8 1.2

Metal and non-metallic

mineral products 3,431 4,115 33.3 19.9

Forestry 13,783 14,257 5.7 3.4

Industrial machinery,

equipment and part 1,830 1,830 -3.9 0

Electronic and electrical

equipment and parts

[C18] 1,511 1,675 1.3 10.8

Consumer goods 3,591 3,914 8.6 9

Non-residential investment weak in 2017 but on rise

-20 -10 0

Industrial

Commercial

Institutional andgovernmental

Total non-residential

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union.

2017 Real Growth (%)

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Current $ 2007 $

Non-Residential Building Investment ($ millions)

Growth profile transitions from consumer to investment led

-12-8-4048

121620

HouseholdConsumption

Government Res Inv Non-Res Inv GovInvestment

2016

2017

2018

2019

Per cent change year-over-year

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union


-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

British Columbia

Lower Mainland--Southwest

Vancouver Island andCoast

Thompson--Okanagan

Kootenay

Cariboo

Northeast

North Coast & Nechako

20172016

Northern labour markets comparably weak but improvingEmployment Growth

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

British Columbia

Lower Mainland--Southwest

Vancouver Island andCoast

Thompson--Okanagan

Kootenay

Cariboo

Northeast

North Coast & Nechako

20172016

Unemployment Rate

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Public administration

Other services (except public administration)

Accommodation and food services

Information, culture and recreation

Health care and social assistance

Educational services

Business, building and other support services

Professional, scientific and technical services

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale and retail trade

Manufacturing

Construction

Utilities

Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas

Agriculture

Rural Areas

CMAs & CAs

Industry Composition: B.C. CMAs and & CAs and Rural Areas

Source: Statistics Canada. Note: As of 2017.

Sources: Mining BC, Canadian Mining & Energy

Prior capital investment lifts resource output, new investment weak

Source: : Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union 2017 is an estimate

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

All Industries

Forestry

Oil and Gas Mining

Other Mining

Support activities for oil,gas, and other mining

Indexed BC GDP: 2010 = 100

Mining employment down since 2013, mild bounce in 2017

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Mining and quarrying (except oil and gas)

Support activities for mining, and oil and gas extraction


Payroll CountsCare and Maintenance due to low prices• Endako• Huckleberry (since Aug 2016)

Oil and gas jumps, forestry employment rising but below peak

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017


Oil and gas mining payroll counts Forestry sector payroll counts

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

BC Industry Outlook (GDP % Change)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

B.C. 3.1 3.7 4.3 3.0 2.3

Forestry 3.3 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -3.0

Oil and Gas 5.2 13.8 0.5 3.8 3.2

Other Mining -4.3 -0.2 6.5 4.5 0.3

Manufacturing 2.3 5.8 6.2 2.9 1.3

Wood Products 3.5 5.7 -0.7 -1.1 -2.4

Pulp and Paper -1.6 -5.5 6.6 -0.2 1.0

Primary Metals 0.4 80.9 13.7 2.7 1.2

Source: Central 1 Credit Union March 2018 B.C Economic Outlook

Economic growth outlook has positives and negatives

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual, 2018 expectations

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018e

Mining (L) Support (Mining/OG) (L) Oil and Gas (R )

$ (millions) $ (millions)

Resource capital investment spending remains sluggish, support activity declines

Turn in commodity prices lifts exploration activity

Source:Bank of Canada, B.C. Ministry of Energy and Mines Central 1 Credit Union. Latest: 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015Mineral Exploration Metals and Mineral Price Index (R )

$ millions Index 2007=100

Source: World Bank Outlook, Central 1. Note: USD Latest: Feb/18

Natural Gas (USD/mmbtu)

Coal prices bump higher, natural gas steady but low

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Nat Gas (US) Japan LNG

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Coking Coal AUS, USD /tonne

Sources: BC Ministry of Advanced Education, Skills and Training, Central 1 Credit Union

Major Project Inventory, proposed dominated by LNGAggregate Northern B.C. Major Projects - Q3 ($ million)

Complete Under Construction ProposedTotal 277 13,897 214,575Liquified Natural Gas 108,750Petro Chemical Manufacturing 36,000LNG-NG Pipeline 235 22,900Crude Pipeline 18,000Mining 251 17,181Utilities 9,384 5,867Oil & Gas Extraction 1,900 1,380Resort 800Commercial/Industrial 452Health and Social Assistance 365Port and Harbour Facilities 265Transportation & Warehousing 277 502 201Wood Products Manufacturing 60Educational Services 89 44Accommodation 40Arts/Entertainment/Recreation 21 16Manufacturing 15Airport Operations 15Port and Harbour Facilities 70Natural Gas Processing 930Retail 500

87% of proposed projects related to LNG and energy

Proposed Mining Projects

ProjectEstimated Cost EA Stage Municipality

Cons Jobs

Op Jobs Start

Completion

Aley Niobium Project Niobium 700Pre-application Mackenzie Region 1400 350Turnagain Nickel Project Expansion Nickel 1300 Dease Lake AreaBerg Copper-Molybdenum-Silver Mine Moly/Copper HoustonGiscome Quarry and Lime Project Lime 130Certified Prince George 60 20

Red Mountain Underground Gold Project Gold 76Pre-application Stewart 105 98Blackwater Gold Project Gold 1800Review Vanderhoof 2600 500

Bonanza Ledge Mine Gold 60 Quesnel 90Spring 2018

Bronson Slope Copper/Gold/Silver/Molybdenum Mine

Copper/Gold/Silver 175Withdrawn Stewart region

GJ Kinaskan Lake Copper-Gold Project Copper/Gold Iskut

Kerr - Sulphurets - Mitchell (KSM) Gold/Copper Copper/Gold 5300Certified Stewart 1800 5002019 2023Spanish Mountain Copper-Gold Mines Copper/Gold 756Pre-application Williams Lake 2500 285

Schaft Creek Porphyry Copper-Gold Mine Copper/Gold 2900Withdrawn Iskut 2100 700

Kemess Underground Copper-Gold Mine Copper 524Certified Chetwynd 1127 240Lorraine-Jayjay Copper Mine Copper 100 Fort St JamesMurray River Coal Project Coal 400Certified Tumbler Ridge

Groundhog Project Anthracite Coal Mine Coal 600 Smithers AreaSukunka Coal Mine Project Coal 444Review Tumbler RidgeCarbon Creek Mine Coal 301Pre-application Hudson HopeGething Coal Project Coal 1360Pre-application Hudson Hope 400

Belcourt/ Saxon Coal Mines Coal 100 Tumbler Ridge 2018 2019

Hermann Coal Mine Coal 55Certified Tumbler Ridge 100

Source: World Bank, Bloomberg, Bank of Canada Central 1. Note: USD Latest: Feb/2018

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bank of Canada Forestry Index, Jan/13=100

Wood product pricing shoots higher, prices up 30% y/y

Forestry sector growth flat in recent years, 2017 no different

Source: : BC Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resources, Central 1 Credit Union

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

ProductionInternational ExportsNorth Timber Harvest

Per Cent

Forestry capacity utilization high, mills operating at high level


50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Forestry and Logging Wood Product Manufacturing

Canada: Capacity Utilization (%)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Housing starts still climbing in U.S., Canada peaks

Source: BC Ministry of Energy and Mines, Central 1 Credit Union

000s units 000s units

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: 2017

North Coast Nechako

Deviation in population growth estimate depends on method

36.038.040.042.044.046.0

2011 2013 2015 2017

Persons (000s) Persons (000s)

55.5

56.0

56.5

57.0

57.5

2011 2013 2015 2017

Cariboo Northeast

66.067.068.069.070.071.0

2011 2013 2015 2017

Persons (000s) Persons (000s)

155.5156.0156.5157.0157.5158.0

2011 2013 2015 2017

0

100

200

300

0

500

1,000

1,500

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

North Coast

Source: Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: 2017

Nechako

Cariboo Northeast

Home sales and median home values

050100150200250

0

200

400

600

800

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

0

100

200

300

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

2000 2004 2008 2012 20160

100

200

300

400

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Resale Transactions (L) $ Detached Home Value $000s (R )

0

50

100

150

200

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Cariboo

Source: Landcor, BC Stats, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: 2017

Northeast

North Coast Nechako

New home construction trends stable

0

50

100

150

200

0

100

200

300

400

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

0102030405060

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015051015202530

05

1015202530

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Units Units

Units Units

$ M $ M

$ M $ M

New home sales (L) Residential permit volume (R )

0

50

100

150

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Cariboo

Source: BC Stats, Central 1 Credit Union Latest: 2017

Northeast

North Coast Nechako

Non-residential building permits range-bound

0

50

100

150

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

0100200300400500600

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 20150

102030405060

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

$ mill ions $ mill ions

$ mill ions $ mill ions

Mill rebuildRio Tinto Alcan

Site C employment statistics, direct employment

Source: BC Hydro

Economic OutlookIndicator 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f

North Coast/Nechako Development Region

Employment Growth (% ch.) 7.9 -0.2 1.0 2.0 0.5

Unemployment Rate (%) 7.0 7.7 5.8 6.0 5.9

Cariboo

Employment Growth (% ch.) -6.9 -0.8 2.9 0.4 1.0


Northeast

Employment Growth (% ch.) 4.2 -2.5 -1.5 -1.0 1.0


Indicator 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f

North Coast Housing Market

Resale Transactions (Units) 713 627 660 700 725

% change -23.5 -12.1 5.3 6.0 4.0

Median Price ($) 240,000 240,000 240,500 242,000 245,000

% change 11.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2

Nechako Housing Market


% change 25.7 -20.6 18.6 3.3 -3.0

Median Price ($) 181,500 189,250 210,000 215,000 218,000

% change -1.9 4.3 11.0 2.4 1.4

Cariboo Housing Market

Resale Transactions (Units) 2,406 2,554 2,847 2,900 2850

% change 0.9 6.1 11.5 1.9 -1.8

Median Price ($) 221,380 227,000 239,000 250,000 255,000

% change 3.2 2.5 5.3 4.6 2.0

Northeast Housing Market


% change -22.9 -43.3 30.0 6.5 4.9

Median Price ($) 300,000 271,500 280,000 275,000 283,000

% change 0.8 -9.5 3.1 -1.8 2.9

Questions?

Reach out any time to [email protected]

Labour market trends: Cariboo

75

80

85

90

95


Labour Force

62646668707274


Participation RatePer cent of pop.15+.

456789

10


Unemployment RatePer cent of labour force

Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Feb-18

Persons – 000s

70

75

80

85

90


EmploymentPersons – 000s

Labour market trends: North Coast & Nechako

38404244464850


Labour Force

55

60

65

70

75



02468

1012



Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjustedLatest: Feb-18

Persons – 000s

3234363840424446



Labour market trends: Northeast

34363840424446


Labour Force

62

67

72

77

82



02468

1012



Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Feb-18

Persons – 000s

35363738394041



Population Component – Persons (000s)

Component Approach Yields Different Picture

North Coast Nechako

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17

Source: Statistics Canada, Central 1 Credit Union (note: intercensal estimate) Latest: 2016

Cariboo Northeast

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17

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Growth, Commodities, and Trumpian Uncertainty: What’s next...

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