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April 9, 2010 United States: Portfolio Strategy

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 4

1Q 2010 Earnings Calendar (week of April 12, 2010)

Exhibit 1: 1Q 2010 Earnings Calendar

Source: Factset, Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

* - Conviction list.

YTD Mkt Cap 1Q 2010 EPS Consensus 1Q 2010 P/E

Sector Company name Ticker Rating Return ($ bil) GS Consensus Std. Dev. YTD Revisions Yr/Yr Growth (NTM)

Monday, April 12, 2010

Materials Alcoa Inc AA Neutral (8)% $ 15 $ 0.08 $ 0.11 $ 0.05 (46)% 119 % 20.0 x

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Industrials CSX Corp. CSX Sell 10 % $ 21 $ 0.62 $ 0.69 $ 0.05 0 % 11 % 16.4 xFastnal Co. FAST NC 23 7 0.33 0.01 1 0 33.9

Information Technology Intel Corp. INTC Neutral 10 % $ 123 $ 0.37 $ 0.37 $ 0.02 10 % 236 % 13.6 xLinear Technology Corp. LLTC Buy (6) 6 0.37 0.39 0.02 19 56 17.6

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Consumer Discretionary Yum! Brands, Inc YUM Buy 15 % $ 19 $ 0.48 $ 0.52 $ 0.02 (1)% 8 % 16.7 x

Financials JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM Buy* 10 % $ 182 $ 0.70 $ 0.64 $ 0.06 (2)% 60 % 15.0 xIndustrials Grainger (W.W.) Inc. GWW Neutral 18 % $ 7 $ 1.52 $ 1.37 $ 0.06 6 % 10 % 19.1 x

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Financials People's United Financial PBCT Neutral (0)% $ 6 $ 0.08 $ 0.08 $ 0.01 (18)% 0 % 43.3 xProgressive Corp. PGR Buy 9 13 0.36 0.37 0.03 0 (12) 13.6

Health Care Intuitive Surgical ISRG NC 12 % $ 13 $ 1.68 $ 0.15 11 % 133 % 43.8 x

Information Technology Advanced Micro Devices AMD Sell (3)% $ 5 $(0.16) $(0.11) $ 0.08 44 % 83 % NMGoogle Inc. GOOG Buy* (8) 137 6.87 6.56 0.20 3 27 20.8

Materials PPG Industries PPG Neutral 17 % $ 11 $ 0.70 $ 0.64 $ 0.07 21 % 237 % 17.5 x

Friday, April 16, 2010

Consumer Discretionary Gannett Co. GCI NC 20 % $ 4 $ 0.42 $ 0.05 24 % 68 % 8.6 xGenuine Parts GPC Buy* 14 7 0.67 0.61 0.02 3 9 16.1Mattel, Inc. MAT NC 18 9 (0.03) 0.03 29 79 14.4

Financials Bank of America Corp. BAC Buy* 24 % $ 187 $ 0.10 $ 0.09 $ 0.07 35 % (80)% 23.5 xFirst Horizon National FHN Neutral 13 3 (0.10) (0.16) 0.06 (33) 56 NMCharles Schwab SCHW Neutral 2 19 0.11 0.13 0.02 (24) (32) 27.5

Industrials General Electric GE Buy 23 % $ 198 $ 0.13 $ 0.17 $ 0.02 11 % (35)% 18.5 x

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S&P 500 Performance

Exhibit 2: S&P 500 sector performance over the last weekas of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 3: S&P 500 price return and daily trading volume LTMas of April 8, 2010

Source: FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 4: S&P 500 sector performance over time

as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 5: BEST and WORST performing S&P 500 STOCKS BY SECTOR

as of April 8, 2010


(1.1)

(0.9)

(0.0)

0.2

0.5

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.92.4

0.8

(2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Health Care

Consumer Staples

Utilities

Telecom Services

Industrials

S&P 500

Information Tech

Materials

Energy

Cons DiscretionaryFinancials

1-week Total Return (%)

01

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

600700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

8-Apr-08

8-Jun-08

8-Aug-08

8-Oct-08

8-Dec-08

8-Feb-09

8-Apr-09

8-Jun-09

8-Aug-09

8-Oct-09

8-Dec-09

8-Feb-10

8-Apr-10

Sharestraded(billions)S

&P500PriceLevel

S&P 500 daily trading volume (rhs)

S&P 500 daily price level (lhs)

Total Return Percentage Change (%)

1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTD 12-Month

Financials 2 % 8 % 8 % 10 % 15 % 81 %

Industrials 1 7 9 21 14 66

Cons Discretionary 2 6 11 22 13 62

Materials 1 5 0 12 6 55

Consumer Staples (1) 2 5 9 5 32

Energy 1 3 (1) 5 4 29

Information Tech 1 4 2 14 3 52

Health Care (1) 1 1 13 3 35

Utilities (0) 1 (1) 6 (2) 20

Telecom Services 0 5 (2) 6 (3) 9

S&P 500 1 % 4 % 4 % 12 % 7 % 47 %

BEST STOCKS WORST STOCKS

Return (%) Return (%)

Sector Ticker 1-week YTD Ticker 1-week YTD

Cons Discr EK 28 % 82 % JCP (5)% 18 %

Consumer Staples DF 4 (8) ADM (4) (10)

Energy EOG 12 10 MEE (13) 10

Financials RF 11 63 ICE (5) (5)

Health Care KG 3 (1) FRX (11) (13)Industrials R 7 2 IRM (3) 17

Info Tech ADSK 7 22 MWW (6) (9)

Materials IP 9 3 MON (2) (15)

Telecom Services Q 4 31 VZ (2) (6)

Utilities EQT 3 (1) AEP (2) (1)

S&P 500 EK 28 % 82 % MEE (13)% 10 %

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S&P 500 Performance (contd)

Exhibit 6: TOP 10 performing SUB-SECTORS over the last weekas of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 7: BOTTOM 10 performing SUB-SECTORS over the last weekas of April 8, 2010


Exhibit 8: TOP 10 performing S&P 500 STOCKS over the last weekas of April 8, 2010 Exhibit 9: BOTTOM 10 performing S&P 500 STOCKS over the last weekas of April 8, 2010


5

5

5

5

6

6

7

9

1228

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Commercial Printing

Investment Banking & Brokerage

Homefurnishing Retail

Internet Retail

Region al Banks

Paper Products

Trucking

Casinos & Gaming

Motorcycle ManufacturersPhotog raphic Products


(4)

(4)

(2)

(2)

(2)

(2)

(2)

(2)

(2)(2)

(5) (4) (3) (2) (1) 0

Auto Parts & Equip ment

Agricultural Products

Diversified Support Services

Managed Health Care

Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Construction Materials

Electroni c Components

Homebuilding

Soft DrinksProperty & Casualty Insurance


Return (%)

Company Name Ticker Sector 1-week YTD

Eastman Kodak EK Cons Discr 28 82

Harley-Davidson HOG Cons Discr 12 27

EOG Resources EOG Energy 12 10

Wynn Resorts WYNN Cons Discr 11 48

Regions Financial Corp. RF Financials 11 63

American Int'l. Group AIG Financials 10 25

Washington Post WPO Cons Discr 10 12

Zions Bancorp ZION Financials 10 87

Huntington Bancshares HBAN Financials 9 62

International Paper IP Materials 9 3

S&P 500 Average 1 10

Return (%)

Company Name Ticker Sector 1-week YTD

Massey Energy Co. MEE Energy (13) 10

Forest Laboratories FRX Health Care (11) (13)

Tesoro Corp. TSO Energy (8) (2)

Monster Worldwide MWW Info Tech (6) (9)

Penney (J.C.) JCP Cons Discr (5) 18

IntercontinentalExchange Inc. ICE Financials (5) (5)

WellPoint Inc. WLP Health Care (4) 7

D. R. Horton DHI Cons Discr (4) 11

Johnson Controls JCI Cons Discr (4) 18

Aetna Inc. AET Health Care (4) 6

S&P 500 Average 1 10

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Earnings and Sales

Exhibit 10: EARNINGS GROWTH: S&P 500 bottom-up consensus estimatesas of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 11: SALES GROWTH: S&P 500 bottom-up consensus estimatesas of April 8, 2010


Exhibit 12: TOP-DOWN vs. BOTTOM-UP: Goldman Sachs vs. Consensus

as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 13: REVISIONS: S&P 500 consensus EPS revisions

as of April 8, 2010


2010E Earnings Per Share Growth Annual

1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2010E 2011E

Financials 548 256 181 171 232 49

Energy 1492 68 40 42 86 27

Materials 164 107 30 33 68 29

Consumer Discretionary 795 37 15 7 44 18

Information Technology 82 57 36 11 39 14

S&P 500 70 37 29 27 38 21

Utilities 8 9 6 24 11 4

Health Care (4) 4 4 25 7 10Consumer Staples 7 4 4 4 5 10

Industrials (4) (3) 22 4 4 18

Telecom Services (11) (6) 3 12 (1) 10

S&P 500 (ex-Financials) 52 24 18 16 25 16

2010E Sales Per Share Growth Annual

1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 2010E 2011E

Energy 38 33 27 24 30 13

Materials 15 20 7 7 12 7

Information Technology 9 12 9 5 9 7

S&P 500 5 8 7 6 7 7

Health Care 2 3 0 4 2 4

Consumer Staples 1 2 2 3 2 5

Consumer Discretionary (5) 3 3 1 0 6

Industrials (6) (2) 4 2 (1) 5Telecom Services (3) (3) (2) (1) (2) 1

Contribution to EPS Annual earnings growth rates

GS Top-Down EPS Bottom-up GS Top-Down Bottom-Up

2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E

Energy $10 $15 $10 $12 93 % 45 % 86 % 27 %

Materials 2 3 2 3 69 15 68 29

Telecom Services 3 3 2 2 32 1 (1) 10

Consumer Discretionary 5 5 7 8 5 5 44 18

Utilities 3 4 3 4 15 1 11 4

Information Technology 11 12 14 16 7 10 39 14

Industrials 7 8 7 8 6 16 4 18

Health Care 12 13 12 13 10 4 7 10

Consumer Staples 9 9 9 10 4 3 5 10

S&P 500 ex-Financials 63 71 67 77 18 13 25 16

Financials Operating EPS 12 19 12 17 251 54 232 49

S&P 500 Operating EPS $76 $90 $78 $95 33 % 20 % 38 % 21 %

+ Provisions & Writedowns 5 1 NA NA (63) (82) NA NA

S&P 500 EPS ex-P&W 81 91 NA NA 13 13 NA NA

75

76

77

78

79

80

31-Dec

31-Jan

28-Feb

31-Mar

30-Apr

ConsensusBottom-Up

$78

GoldmanSachs

$76

S&P 500 2010E EPS

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Revisions

Exhibit 14: EARNINGS and SALES REVISIONSAggregate dollars % change, as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 15: Stocks with the most POSITIVE and NEGATIVE EPS REVISIONSas of April 8, 2010

Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 16: S&P 500 1-Month Earnings Revisions Sentiment

as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 17: 1-Month Earnings Revision Sentiment by SECTOR

as of April 8, 2010

Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: FirstCall, I/B/E/S, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

EPS REVISIONS SALES REVISIONS1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month

10E 11E 10E 11E 10E 11E 10E 11E

Information Technology 1.1 % 1.2 % 8.9 % 7.7 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 5.8 % 6.4 %

Consumer Discretionary 0.7 0.9 6.7 4.3 (0.2) 0.8 1.4 1.8

Industrials 0.4 0.9 2.8 3.3 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.6

Materials 0.2 (0.3) 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 4.3 2.9

Health Care (0.1) (0.1) (0.6) (0.6) 0.1 (0.1) 1.0 0.8

Telecommunication Services (0.1) 0.0 (4.7) (5.8) 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 (0.2)

Consumer Staples (0.1) (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) 0.2 (0.3) 0.8 1.0

Utilities (0.3) (0.5) (1.7) (2.6) NM NM NM NM

S&P 500 (0.3) (0.1) 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.4

Financials (1.8) (0.8) (2.4) (1.7) NM NM NM NM

Energy (2.6) (2.1) (1.3) (2.3) 1.9 1.1 2.6 (5.7)

POSITIVE EPS REVISIONS NEGATIVE EPS REVISIONS1 month 3 month 1 month 3 month

Ticker Revis. Return Revis. Return Ticker Revis. Return Revis. Return

MU 55 % 10 % 68 % (5)% DFS (27)% 9 % (30)% 3 %

LEN 55 0 69 8 HIG (24) 6 (19) 9

CMA 29 13 65 26 GT (23) (5) (61) (19)

AMD 27 9 70 (0) ETFC (22) 2 (389) (6)

CLF 26 22 100 38 C (20) 26 (61) 25

DHI 18 (7) NM (1) COG (18) (7) (16) (16)

NSM 13 (1) 14 (4) SUN (16) 5 (39) 4

X 11 9 (63) 1 XL (16) (0) (11) 6

ODP 11 5 67 15 APC (14) 3 9 9

WYNN 9 25 24 27 RRC (12) (4) (8) (10)

S&P 500 (0)% 4 % 2 % 4 % (0)% 4 % 2 % 4 %

(30)%

(20)%

(10)%

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

(60)%

(40)%

(20)%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

S&P500Mo

nthly%

Return

1-MonthRe

visionSentiment

1-Month 2010 EPS Revision Sentiment (lhs)[(# pos. revisions - # neg. revisions)/ total revisions]

Price Performance (rhs)

S&P 500

(20)%

(15)%

(10)%

(5)%

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

ConsumerDiscr

Industrials

InfoTech

Materials

S&P500

ConsumerStaples

HealthCare

TelecomS

ervices

Financials

Utilities

Energy

Earnin

gsSentiment

1-Month Earnings Revision Sentiment by Sector[(# pos. revisions - # neg. revisions)/ total revisions]

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Valuation

Exhibit 18: Aggregate valuation metrics for S&P 500 and sectorsbottom-up consensus valuation, as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 19: Standard deviation vs. 10-year history (Z-Score)bottom-up consensus, as of April 8, 2010

Source: Compustat, FirstCall via FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Compustat, FirstCall via FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 20: Historical NTM P/E and LTM P/B values for the S&P 500aggregate bottom-up consensus valuation, as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 21: Top stocks by fastest 2010 earnings growth and lowest NTM P/Eby sector, as of April 8, 2010

Source: Compustat, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Compustat, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

EV/

Sales

EV/

EBITDA

Price/

Book

FCF

Yield

PEG

Ratio

NTM

P/E

S&P 500 1.5x 8.8x 2.5x 6.2 % 1.4x 15.1x

Materials 1.5 10.5 3.0 4.9 1.8 17.9

Industrials 1.9 11.7 3.0 7.1 1.7 17.7

Consumer Discretionary 1.3 8.4 2.9 8.2 1.2 16.9

Financials NM NM 1.4 NM 2.0 16.8

Information Technology 2.3 10.5 4.2 6.3 1.1 15.5

Telecommunication Services 1.8 5.3 1.7 13.3 3.1 14.8

Consumer Staples 1.2 9.2 3.7 6.4 1.6 14.7

Energy 1.0 7.8 2.2 1.2 1.0 13.4

Health Care 1.2 8.2 2.9 7.7 1.3 12.1

Utilities NM 7.0 1.5 2.8 2.8 12.1

EV/

Sales

EV/

EBITDA

Price/

Book

FCF

Yield P/E

PEG

Ratio

Median

Z-Score

S&P 500 (0.8) (0.9) (0.8) (1.3) (0.7) 0.7 (0.8)

Health Care (1.7) (1.6) (1.1) (0.7) (1.7) (0.5) (1.3)

Consumer Staples 1.0 (0.3) (0.7) (0.1) (0.8) (1.1) (0.5)

Telecommunication Services (1.2) (0.8) (0.1) (0.8) (0.1) 1.4 (0.5)

Information Technology 0.1 (0.9) 0.9 (0.0) (1.3) (1.2) (0.4)

Utilities NM (0.5) (0.1) NM 0.1 1.3 (0.0)

Consumer Discretionary 2.3 0.4 2.6 (1.4) (0.2) (0.7) 0.1

Energy (0.3) 1.6 (0.4) 1.3 1.2 (0.5) 0.4Materials 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.8

Industrials 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.7 2.1 2.1 1.3

Financials NM NM (1.0) NM 1.3 2.2 1.3

2.5

012

345

6

1/76 1/79 1/82 1/85 1/88 1/91 1/94 1/97 1/00 1/03 1/06 1/09

LTMP/B(x)

10-yr rolling avg

P/B

15.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1/76 1/79 1/82 1/85 1/88 1/91 1/94 1/97 1/00 1/03 1/06 1/09

NTMP/E(x)

10-yr rolling avg

P/E

GROWTH ALUEFastest EPS Growth (%) Lowest P/E (x)

Sector Ticker 2010E 2011E Ticker NTM Rel to SPX

Cons Discr CBS 88 20 GCI 8.6 0.6

Consumer Staples WFMI 63 13 SVU 8.4 0.6

Energy HES 82 35 CHK 8.3 0.6

Financials HIG 78 38 AIG 8.2 0.5

Health Care ESRX 38 27 FRX 7.7 0.5

Industrials RHI 85 NM PBI 10.3 0.7

Info Tech ALTR 92 7 WDC 6.5 0.4

Materials IP 68 40 FCX 11.0 0.7

Telecom Services FTR 59 1 CTL 11.1 0.7

Utilities PPL 70 (4) PPL 8.2 0.5

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S&P 500 Factor Performance

Exhibit 22: S&P 500 factor return ranking for the week ended April 8, 2010 (a)

(a) Factor return analysis uses S&P 500 companies included in the Goldman Sachs Americas coverage universe with stock prices greater than $5 at the time of publication.

(b) Growth, Value and Profitability analysis is based on Goldman Sachs Investment Profile scores (IP Scores). Growth, value and profitability metrics are indexed based on composites of several methodologies todetermine the stocks percentile ranking within the regions coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as

follows: Growth is a composite of next years estimate over current years estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI,

ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book.

(c) Other metric analysis based on current market prices and data sourced from NASDAQ and NYSE via FactSet.

Source: NASDAQ and NYSE via FactSet, IDC, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Last Week Spread (%) Performance Spread of Top Quintile Less Bottom Quintile (%)

Last Last Five Trading Days Last Last

Growth Metrics(b) Week 2-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr Month Quarter

EPS Growth 1.8 0.0 0.8 0.5 (0.1) 0.6 2.0 3.2

GROWTH 1.1 0.0 0.7 0.4 (0.3) 0.3 1.2 3.1

EBITDA Growth 1.1 (0.1) 0.6 0.6 (0.2) 0.2 1.5 2.3

Sales Growth 0.4 (0.2) 0.5 0.3 (0.3) 0.1 0.7 (0.3)

Value Metrics(b)

EV/FCF 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.9 (0.6) 0.5 0.6 2.8

VALUATION 1.1 (0.5) 0.1 0.8 (0.0) 0.8 2.7 10.1

P/E 1.1 (0.2) 0.3 0.5 (0.2) 0.6 3.3 9.1

P/B 0.9 (0.7) (0.1) (0.1) 0.8 0.9 2.9 9.8

P/div 0.6 (0.1) 0.7 (0.2) 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.9

EV/EBITDA 0.2 (0.7) 0.0 0.6 (0.2) 0.5 2.5 7.6

EV/DACF 0.1 (0.7) (0.2) 0.7 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.4

Profitability Metrics(b)

CROCI (0.1) (0.5) 0.0 (0.6) 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.9

PROFITABILITY (0.4) (0.8) 0.1 (0.8) 1.2 (0.1) (0.6) 1.3

ROCE (0.4) (0.8) 0.3 (0.7) 0.8 (0.1) (0.0) 2.3

ROE (0.7) (0.6) (0.4) (0.9) 1.0 0.3 (0.3) 1.2

Other Metrics(c)

Short Interest Level 1.7 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 (0.3) 3.7 6.3

Equity Capitalization (0.4) 0.0 (0.8) (0.3) 0.3 0.5 (0.8) (1.9)

(1) 0 1 2

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Style and Size

Exhibit 23: Total return by style and size over timeas of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 24: Total return by SECTOR for S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000as of April 8, 2010


Exhibit 25: GROWTH vs. VALUE relative performance over timeRussell 1000 Growth vs. Value, as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 26: LARGE CAP vs. SMALL CAP relative performance over timeS&P 500 vs. Russell, as of April 8, 2010


Total Return Percentage Change (%)1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTD

Large Cap vs. Small Cap

S&P 500 1 4 4 12 7

Russell 2000 2 5 9 16 12

Large vs. Small (bps) (155) (66) (476) (341) (526)

Growth vs. Value

Russell 1000 Growth 0 4 4 13 6

Russell 1000 Value 1 5 5 13 9

Growth vs. Value (bps) (72) (172) (128) 76 (346)

Weight (%) 1-Week (% Return) YTD (% Return)Sector SP500 R2000 SP500 R2000 (bps) SP500 R2000 (bps)

Telecom Services 3 1 0 (0) 36 (3) (2) (87)

Financials 17 21 2 3 (66) 15 15 (50)

Utilities 3 3 (0) 1 (97) (2) 4 (664)

Information Tech 19 18 1 2 (118) 3 9 (604)

Industrials 10 15 1 2 (145) 14 9 535

Cons Discretionary 10 15 2 3 (149) 13 23 (984)

Materials 4 5 1 3 (182) 6 11 (515)

Health Care 12 14 (1) 1 (184) 3 10 (664)

Consumer Staples 11 3 (1) 1 (207) 5 10 (428)

Energy 11 5 1 4 (230) 4 10 (665)

Index 100 100 1 2 (155) 7 12 (526)

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Value outperforming

Growth outperforming85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

S&P 500 outperforming

Russell 2000 outperforming

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Global Equity Market and Mutual Fund Performance

Exhibit 27: GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET performance over the past weekas of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 28: US EQUITY MUTUAL FUND performance vs. benchmarkas of April 8, 2010

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Lipper, Factset, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 29: GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET performance over timeas of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 30: International and other MUTUAL FUND performanceas of April 8, 2010

Source: FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Lipper, FactSet, and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

(3)

(2)

(2)

(1)(1)

0

0

1

1

1

2

1

(3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3

France (CAC 40)

Germany (Dax)

Europe (DJ Stoxx 600)

Spain (IBEX 35)

UK (FTSE 100)

Brazil (Bovespa)

Japan (Nikkei)

U.S. (S&P 500)

Korea (KOSPI)

Australia (ASX 200)

Mexico (Bolsa)

China (MSCI China)

% Weekly price change

Avg. Total Return (%) Stdev No. of AUM

Lipper Indices 1-week YTD 1-Week YTD Funds $ bil

Large-Cap Core Funds 0.7 6.4 0.5 1.7 30 259

Benchmark: S&P 500 0.8 7.0

Out / (Underperformance) (bps) (2) (55)

Large-Cap Growth Funds 0.9 6.1 0.4 1.5 30 254

Benchmark: Russell 1000 Growth 0.5 5.7

Out / (Underperformance) (bps) 41 37

Large-Cap Value Funds 0.8 7.5 0.4 1.5 30 227Benchmark: Russell 1000 Value 1.2 9.2


Small-Cap Core Funds 1.7 10.5 0.5 2.3 29 NA

Benchmark: Russell 2000 2.3 12.2


Price Return (%) USD

1-Week 1-Month 3-Month 2010 YTD 2009

Mexico (Bolsa) 1 7 6 11 52

Korea (KOSPI) 1 5 3 7 62

U.S. (S&P 500) 1 4 4 6 23

Japan (Nikkei) 0 2 3 6 16

Australia (ASX 200) 1 4 1 4 69

Brazil (Bovespa) 0 5 (1) 2 144

China (MSCI China) 2 5 (0) 2 63

UK (FTSE 100) (1) 3 (1) (0) 37

Europe (DJ Stoxx 600) (2) 1 (4) (2) 32

Germany (Dax) (2) 3 (5) (4) 28

France (CAC 40) (3) (0) (8) (6) 26

Spain (IBEX 35) (1) (2) (15) (14) 34

Average (0) 3 (1) 1 49

Avg. Total Return (%) Stdev No. of AUM

Lipper Indices 1-week YTD 1-week YTD Funds $ bil

International Equity

Global Funds (0) 4 0.7 2.4 30 183

International Funds (1) 3 0.4 2.5 30 394

European Funds (1) 1 0.5 2.9 10 19

Emerging Market Funds 1 6 0.3 1.4 29 NA

Real Estate and Natural Resources

Real Estate 2 12 0.5 1.5 30 39

Natural Resource 1 4 0.5 1.7 9 NA

Fixed Income

General U.S. Government Funds Index (0) 1 0.2 0.5 29 NA

A Rated Bond Funds Index 0 2 0.1 1.0 29 NA

BBB Rated Funds Index 0 3 0.1 1.4 30 NA

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Fund Flows

Exhibit 32: Domestic equity mutual fund flows, 4-week moving averageweek ended April 7, 2010

Exhibit 33: Weekly mutual fund flows and assets tracked by AMGWeek ended April 7, 2010; excluding ETFs


Exhibit 34: Average daily TRADING TURNOVER over the last weekby sector, as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 35: Top ten S&P 500 STOCKS by daily average trading turnoveras of April 8, 2010

Daily average turnover = daily avg t rading value / avg market cap (over the past 5 trading days).Daily average turnover = daily avg t rading value / avg market cap (over the past 5 trading days).


(10.0)

(8.0)

(6.0)(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

$billions

Domestic Equities, 4-week moving avg

AMG Weekly Mutual Fund Flows, ex-ETFs ($ billions)

Total AMG Weekly Flows 1-Week Flow Inflow/(Outflow)

Assets 4-Week Avg This week % of Assets (Cons. Weeks)

All Equity 1,745 0.9 1.2 0.1 % 7

U.S. Equity 1,311 0.5 0.6 0.0 2

Int'l Equity 311 0.3 0.5 0.2 1

Global 123 0.0 0.0 0.0 2

Equity Income 79 0.1 0.3 0.4 7

Gold & Nat Res 28 0.1 0.1 0.3 1

Money Market 2,690 (27.3) (14.3) (0.5) (13)

All Bonds 879 3.3 3.5 0.4 56

Govt Treasury 18 0.3 0.0 0.2 26

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.9

0.9

0.0 1.0 2.0

Cons Staples

Utilities

Health Care

Industrials

Telecom Services

S&P 500

Energy

Info Tech

Financials

Cons Discr

Materials

% Daily Avg Trading Turnover

Avg Daily 1-Week

Trading Total

Company Ticker Sector Turnover (%) Return (%)

Massey Energy Co. MEE Energy 28.1 (13)

American Int'l. Group AIG Financials 19.4 10

United States Steel Corp. X Materials 12.0 1

AK Steel AKS Materials 9.7 2Eastman Kodak EK Consumer Discretionary 9.4 28

Tesoro Corp. TSO Energy 6.1 (8)

Micron Technology MU Information Technology 5.1 4

Abercrombie & Fitch ANF Consumer Discretionary 4.7 1

Forest Laboratories FRX Health Care 4.4 (11)

Zions Bancorp ZION Financials 4.4 10

S&P 500 Average 1.3 1

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Risk and Dispersion

Exhibit 36: Goldman Sachs Risk BarometerIndex is number of standard deviations from the average * 100

Exhibit 37: VIX Volatility Indexas of April 8, 2010

Note: Metrics included are implied option volatility (S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100), normalized skew, highyield credit spreads, credit derivative swap spreads, mutual fund net flows, and cash levels.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Exhibit 38: S&P 500 stock and sector average correlationas of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 39: Credit Default Swaps, 5-Year On-the-run Spreadsas of April 8, 2010


(300)

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

Dec-94

Nov-95

Nov-96

Nov-97

Nov-98

Nov-99

Nov-00

Nov-01

Nov-02

Nov-03

Nov-04

Nov-05

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09

Nov-10

Risk Aversion

Increasing

Risk AversionDecreasing

8-Apr-10

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-12

81All time hig h on 20-Nov-08

16

8-Apr-10

0.72

0.37

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Dec-89

Dec-90

Dec-91

Dec-92

Dec-93

Dec-94

Dec-95

Dec-96

Dec-97

Dec-98

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

AverageCorrelation

Average stock correlation

Average sector correlation

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

HighYiel

dCDX(bps)

InvestmentGra

deCDX(bps)

CDX (IG) (lhs)

CDX (HY) (rhs)

A il 9 2010 U i d S P f li S

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Goldman Sachs Recommendations and Forecasts

Exhibit 40: Goldman Sachs Recommended Sector Weightings (a)as of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 41: Goldman Sachs US Economics quarterly GDP forecastsas of April 8, 2010

(a) Sector weightings last rebalanced December 7, 2009.


Exhibit 42: Goldman Sachs COMMODITY and CURRENCY forecastsas of April 8, 2010

Exhibit 43: Goldman Sachs US Economics forecastsas of April 8, 2010


Sector WeightingsTotal Goldman Sachs Current GS GS

Return Recommended S&P 500 Overweight / Alpha

Sectors YTD Sector Weightings Weight Underweight YTD

Information Technology 3 % 19 % 300 bp (11)bp

Energy 4 11 300 (9)

Materials 6 4 200 (2)

Consumer Staples 5 11 0 0

Industrials 14 10 0 0

Financials 15 17 0 0

Telecom Services (3) 3 (100) 9

Consumer Discretionary 13 10 (200) (12)

Utilities (2) 3 (200) 17

Health Care 3 12 (300) 12

S&P 500 7 % 100 % 0 bp 4 bp

Overweight

Neutral

Underweight

2.52.0

1.5 1.5

2.53.0

3.5 3.5

0.0 %

0.5 %

1.0 %

1.5 %

2.0 %

2.5 %

3.0 %

3.5 %

4.0 %

Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4EUSGDP

Growth(qoqannualized%)

2010 2011

Forecasts

units Current 3m 6m 12m

Energy

WTI Crude Oil $/bbl 85.39 92.00 97.00 96.50

NYMEX Nat. Gas $/mmBtu 3.91 5.50 5.50 6.00

RBOB Gasoline $/gal 2.32 2.44 2.50 2.39

MetalsLME Copper $/mt 7892 7850 8045 7825

London Gold $/troy oz 1153 1260 1315 1390

London Silver $/troy oz 17.98 21.00 21.90 23.20

Currencies

Euro / US Dollar EUR/$ 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35

US Dollar / Yen $/ 93.1 92.0 94.0 98.0

Sterling / US Dollar /$ 1.52 1.55 1.61 1.61

% Annual Change2009A 2010E 2011E

Real GDP (2.4)% 2.5% 2.4%

Consumer Spending (0.6) 1.9 1.4

Total Fixed Investment (18.4) (3.5) 4.1

Business Fixed Investment (17.8) (3.5) 2.3

Residential Investment (20.5) (3.7) 10.9

Federal Government Spending 5.2 5.2 4.1Exports of Goods and Services (9.6) 12.2 7.5

Imports of Goods and Services (13.9) 7.9 2.5

Core CPI 1.7 0.8 0.1

Unemployment Rate 9.3 9.8 10.1

Fed Funds Rate 0.1 0.2 0.2

2-year Treasury Rate 0.9 0.9 2.0

10-year Treasury Rate 3.8 3.3 4.0

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April 9 2010 United States: Portfolio Strategy

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Constituents of High Sharpe Ratio Basket

Exhibit 47: High Sharpe Ratio Basketas of April 8, 2010

Source: Compustat, FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

6-Mo Expected 6-Mo Expected

Current Expected Implied Return / Current Expected Implied Return /Rating Price Return Vol Implied Vol Rating Price Return Vol Implied Vol

Consumer Discretionary Industrials

Apollo Group APOL NC $63.00 26 % 38 % 0.67 Iron Mountain Inc. IRM NC $26.52 29 % 24 % 1.23

Kohl's Corp. KSS Buy 56.63 15 25 0.58 Donnelley (R.R.) & Sons RRD NC 22.54 20 27 0.74

Gannett Co. GCI NC 17.79 23 43 0.52 Snap-On Inc. SNA NC 44.58 16 27 0.60

Target Corp. TGT Neutral 55.64 8 23 0.36 Fluor Corp. FLR Neutral 49.74 8 30 0.27

Comcast Corp. CMCSA Not Rated 18.43 6 27 0.21 Equifax Inc. EFX NC 35.60 2 23 0.09

Consumer Staples Information Technology

Wal-Mart Stores WMT Buy $55.38 12 % 17 % 0.72 McAfee Inc. MFE Neutral $39.74 21 % 26 % 0.78Altria Group, Inc. MO Neutral 20.68 10 16 0.63 Compuware Corp. CPWR NC 8.50 21 34 0.61

Molson Coors Brewing Co. TAP Neutral 43.05 12 23 0.53 Intel Corp. INTC Neutral 22.31 15 27 0.56

Kroger Co. KR CS 22.38 10 23 0.44 Hewlett-Packard HPQ Buy 53.63 11 23 0.48

Dean Foods DF Neutral 16.66 8 30 0.25 Yahoo Inc. YHOO Neutral 17.35 10 27 0.36

Coca-Cola Enterprises CCE Not Rated 28.03 (5) 20 (0.27) Novell Inc. NOVL NC 5.86 8 31 0.25

Xerox Corp. XRX NC 10.42 6 31 0.18

Energy MEMC Electronic Material WFR NC 15.64 6 46 0.13

Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK Neutral $24.11 43 % 36 % 1.19 Electronic Arts ERTS CS 19.19 (3) 35 (0.07)

Southwestern Energy SWN Buy* 40.74 39 39 1.00

Range Resources Corp RRC NC 48.33 33 36 0.93 MaterialsHalliburton Co. HAL Buy* 31.66 30 34 0.89 Pactiv Corp. PTV Buy $25.69 21 % 28 % 0.74

El Paso Corp. EP Neutral 11.43 25 33 0.76 Owens-Illinois Inc OI Buy 37.59 6 34 0.18

XTO Energy XTO Neutral 47.75 10 19 0.53

Telecommunication Services

Financials AT & T Inc. T Buy $26.02 13 % 19 % 0.70

Chubb Corp. CB Neutral $51.67 15 % 20 % 0.77 MetroPCS Communication PCS Neutral 7.40 8 49 0.17

State Street Corp. STT Neutral 46.38 20 30 0.68

JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM Buy* 45.76 16 27 0.58 Utilities

Marsh & McLennan MMC Neutral 24.21 9 21 0.43 AES Corp. AES NC $11.28 54 % 39 % 1.37

NASDAQ OMX Group NDAQ Buy* 21.71 11 28 0.38 Allegheny Energy AYE Not Rated 23.02 11 20 0.57Allstate Corp. ALL Sell 33.10 6 23 0.28

Northern Trust Corp. NTRS Neutral 57.82 3 24 0.12

Health Care

Gilead Sciences GILD Neutral $45.82 21 % 25 % 0.83

Baxter Internat ional Inc . BAX Neutral 57.70 15 20 0.75

Cephalon Inc CEPH Buy 66.78 16 27 0.58

Tenet Healthcare Corp. THC Buy* 5.95 24 48 0.51

Amgen AMGN Buy 60.52 13 27 0.49 Basket Median 13 % 27 % 0.55

Boston Scientific BSX Sell* 6.98 13 45 0.30 S&P 500 Median 7 % 28 % 0.26


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Recent US Portfolio Strategy

Please contact your Goldman Sachs salesperson for access to additional research or if you wish to be added to the US Portfolio

Strategy research distribution list.

Exhibit 48: Recent research from US Portfolio Strategy

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Latest Market Research Publication Date

US Thematic Views: GARP Update April 1, 2010

US Sector Views: Global vs. Domestic tug-of-war within the US equity market March 25, 2010

US Portfolio Strategy: Using Sharpe Ratios to enhance fund returns March 19, 2010

US Equity Views: 4Q Earnings preview: Earnings rise, sales trough, margins expand January 19, 2010US Portfolio Strategy 2010 Outlook: Cyclical start; defensive finish December 7, 2009

Franchise Research Publication Date

Global Dividend Swap Monitor: Updating our bottom-up dividend forecasts following the results season April 1, 2010

Global Portfolio Strategy: Macro Conference - Asia 2010: Takeaways February 12, 2010

Global Portfolio Strategy: The New BRICS Nifty 50 - EM and DM Baskets November 4, 2009

Periodical Research Description Frequency Timing / Recent ReleaseHedge Fund Trend Monitor Analysis of hedge fund holdings and positioning Quarterly February 22, 2010

S&P 500 Beige Book Qualitative assessment of S&P 500 quarterly earnings reports Quarterly February 5, 2010

Strategy Baskets Overview of US Portfolio Strategy thematic baskets Quarterly August 19, 2009

US Monthly Chartbook Monthly report on where to invest in the S&P 500 Monthly April 6, 2010

US Weekly Kickstart Five minute guide to the US equity market Weekly Friday PM

Where to Invest Now Marketing presentation highlighting recent research and best trade ideas Monthly March 5, 2010

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