Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 1 09

© 2008 Lane BaileyGarageHomesUSA.com

Gwinnett County Real Gwinnett County Real Estate Market ReportEstate Market Report

JanuaryJanuaryNovember-December 2008November-December 2008


November Numbers - UpdatedNovember Numbers - Updated

• 1444 New Listings1444 New Listings

• 376 Sold Listings376 Sold Listings

• 466 Listings Pending466 Listings Pending

• Average 87 Days on Market Average 87 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


November Numbers - UpdatedNovember Numbers - Updated

*Listings Pending may have closed in *Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in November, may have closed in December, may close in some other December, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.IS overlap with Sold Listings.


December Numbers - PreliminaryDecember Numbers - Preliminary

• 1280 New Listings1280 New Listings

• 317 Sold Listings317 Sold Listings

• 515 Listings Pending515 Listings Pending

• Average 89 Days on Market Average 89 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


December Numbers - PreliminaryDecember Numbers - Preliminary

*While all of these numbers are subject *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 400 closed revision. I am estimating 400 closed sales for December.sales for December.


Days on Market (DoM)Days on Market (DoM)

DoM

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

7-Jan

7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr

7-May

7-Jun

7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan

8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr

8-May

8-Jun

8-Jul 8-Aug

8-Sep

8-Oct

8-Nov

8-Dec

Date

Days


ConclusionsConclusions

• Final for November is 87. Final for November is 87.

• I was looking for the low 80s… preliminary I was looking for the low 80s… preliminary was 93 days. 87 wasn’t great, but not badwas 93 days. 87 wasn’t great, but not bad

• For December, preliminary is 89. For December, preliminary is 89.

• I would really like to see numbers stay I would really like to see numbers stay under 90 through January.under 90 through January.


New, Pending & Sold ListingsNew, Pending & Sold Listings

New, Pending, Sold

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

6-Nov

7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr

7-May

7-Jun

7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan

8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr

8-May

8-Jun

8-Jul 8-Aug

8-Sep

8-Oct

8-Nov

8-Dec

9-Jan

Date

Vo

lum

e

New Pending Sold



• I wanted to see listings for Dec come in I wanted to see listings for Dec come in under 1300,we’re at 1280 so far. under 1300,we’re at 1280 so far.

• For November I wanted to be under 1600, For November I wanted to be under 1600, and came in at 1444. Getting rid of stale and came in at 1444. Getting rid of stale inventory is a key factor.inventory is a key factor.

• I’m surprised by the increase in Pendings.I’m surprised by the increase in Pendings.

• I’m disappointed by Nov final Sales.I’m disappointed by Nov final Sales.


November Absorption RatesNovember Absorption Rates

8521 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 8521 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

• 12 month average: 14.2 months inventory12 month average: 14.2 months inventory




Dec. Absorption RatesDec. Absorption Rates

7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Oct., and sales County at the end of Oct., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.






• Nov. final numbers showed sales down 36% Nov. final numbers showed sales down 36% from 2007. Also important, more than 33% of from 2007. Also important, more than 33% of the Pendings from Oct. failed to close. the Pendings from Oct. failed to close.

• December preliminary numbers show a December preliminary numbers show a continued seasonal weakening. Overall, they continued seasonal weakening. Overall, they may not be too bad. We’ll have to see…may not be too bad. We’ll have to see…

• There is still a long way to go. 6 months of There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.you slice it we are 2-3 times that.


New/Sold RatioNew/Sold Ratio

This ratio compares new listings This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.determining a pricing strategy.



• In Nov., 26% as many homes sold as In Nov., 26% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 4 means that on average, for each 4 homes that were put up for sale, 1 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold. I thought we would get to 30%.sold. I thought we would get to 30%.

• In Dec., early numbers point to 25% In Dec., early numbers point to 25% (1:4), but I expect to see that upgrade (1:4), but I expect to see that upgrade to 30% for the final numbers. to 30% for the final numbers.



New/Sold Ratio

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Date

% V

alu

e


ConclusionConclusion

• The weakness of the N/S% shows The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.to Buyers.

• This number tops around 67%This number tops around 67%

• Anything under 33% is very weak.Anything under 33% is very weak.

• I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.for Dec. and a fizzle for January.


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

• Nov. - $204,644 Down 9.1% from Nov. - $204,644 Down 9.1% from November 2007November 2007

• Dec. - $215,090 Down 1.1% from Dec. - $215,090 Down 1.1% from December 2007December 2007

• The Sept. numbers showed an average The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back.it has bounced back.


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

Average prices may be volatile, Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular of homes priced in particular ranges.ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.except in the broadest sense.


List Price/Sales Price RatioList Price/Sales Price Ratio• November – 93.74%November – 93.74%• December – 92.68%December – 92.68%• Over the last few years Sale Prices Over the last few years Sale Prices

generally held between 97% and 98.5% generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08.June ’08.

• Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.”“Seller Capitulation.”


ConclusionConclusion

• List/Sale Price % gives an List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. indication of Buyer strength.

• It also shows whether Sellers are It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.being realistic with pricing.

• The indications are also very The indications are also very general.general.


Overall Conclusion

• I’m actually surprised a little by December I’m actually surprised a little by December Pendings. They came in higher than I expected.Pendings. They came in higher than I expected.

• Right now my big concern is “Pendings Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago.what it was just a few months ago.

• Last year I was calling for a 2Last year I was calling for a 2ndnd Quarter recovery Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom.bottom.


Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions

• September being up in sales was important, but September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was a weak month last year.not conclusive. It was a weak month last year.

• I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring.that until next spring.

• There are some great deals, and there are some There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.dogs. The key is finding the right deals.

• Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.sell without a strategy.


Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions

• I think that we will see some weakness in I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.

• I really want to see more of the Pending I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table. Sales make it to the closing table.

• March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season. area market. Spring is the strong season.

• I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here.we can see it from here.

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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 1 09

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