Date post: | 27-Mar-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | abigail-adams |
View: | 214 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Hans Verkerk, Vladimir Korotkov, Jeannette Meyer, Sergey Zudin, Sergey Lebedev, Marcus Lindner
Impact of wood demand and forest management on forest development
and carbon stocks in Kostroma region, Russia
Introduction
Forests important for controlling CO2 concentration
Russian forests important
•21% of global forest area
•large carbon pool
•carbon sink
•but:• managed unsatisfactorily
• subject to huge changes
Introduction
Aim:
• to explore the effects of different wood demands and
forest management strategies on forest development and
carbon stocks
• to contribute to the development of sustainable forest
management strategies in Russia
Introduction
Research questions
• Demand:• Is the rapid increase in demand sustainable?
• Is it possible to fulfill the demand?
• Management:• What impact does forest management have on the structure
of the forest and on carbon stocks?
Methods
Study area: Chukhlomskoy FMUForested area 226620 haSpecies:
• Scots pine (14%)
• Norway spruce (32%)
• Birch (39%)
• European aspen (14%)
• Other (1%)
Methods
Application of EFISCEN• Forest inventory of 1996
• 24 forest types distinguished
• Data• Volume and increment from forest inventories
• Established BEFs
• Marklund equations + EFIMOD coefficients
• Russian yield tables
• Simulation period: 40 years
Scenarios
Input data
Forestmanagement
Wooddemand
Growth changesdue to climatechange
Forest areachange
Fellingresidues
Europeannational forestinventories
EFISCEN core model:
by region, tree species,site class, ownershipclass
projections of:- stemwood volume- net annual increment- age classes- removals- forest area
Soil submodule:Soil carbon stock andheterotrophic respiration
Whole-treebiomass
Treecarbon
Litte r
Wood productssubmodule:
Carbon stocks andflows in harvestedwood products
Mechanisticmodel
The EFISCEN model framework
The area matrix approach of EFISCEN
Forest types are specified by:
• Region• Owner• Site class• Tree species
INVENTORY DATA:STEMWOOD VOLUME, m3
(from EEFR database)
DRY WOOD BIOMASS, Mg
CARBON IN STEM BIOMASS, Mg
CARBON IN WHOLE TREE BIOMASS, Mg
CARBON TO LITTER, Mg/yr-1
Dry wood density, Mg/m3
Carbon content, %
Biomass turnover by age classes, tree species, region
Biomass expansion factors by age classes, tree species, region
The Carbon Calculation
Methods
Scenarios• 2 species scenarios
• no change in species
• increase of coniferous species
• 5 demand scenarios• constant demand
• increasing demand
• 3 management scenarios• changing share of thinnings in removals
• changing rotation length
Results
Forest structure in 1995
0
10
20
30
40
Age-class
Are
a (
1000
ha
)
European aspen Birch Norway spruce Scots pine
Results of demand scenarios
Forest structure
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0Age class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
0
10
20
30
40
Aspen and others Birch Norway spruce Scots pine
MSD scenario
Average age: 44 years
CP scenario
Average age: 68 years
Results demand scenarios
Forest growth
• Average growing stock
• Average carbon stocks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Years
Gro
win
g s
tock
(m
3/h
a)
MSD CP Pisarenko et al., 2001 Alexeyev and Birdsey, 1998
Scenario 1995 2015 2035ton/ha ton/ha % change ton/ha % change
MSD 50.4 54.9 9 59.3 18CP 50.4 67.6 34 82.1 63RFSOS-I 50.4 65.2 29 - -RFSOS-II 50.4 63.7 27 - -RFSOS-III 50.4 66.2 32 - -
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1996
-200
0
2001
-200
5
2006
-201
0
2011
-201
5
2016
-202
0
2021
-202
5
2026
-203
0
2031
-203
5
Years
Tota
l re
mo
vals
(10
00 m
3/ye
ar)
European aspen Birch Norway spruce Scots pine
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1996
-200
0
2001
-200
5
2006
-201
0
2011
-201
5
2016
-202
0
2021
-202
5
2026
-203
0
2031
-203
5
Years
Tota
l re
mo
vals
(10
00 m
3/ye
ar)
Results demand scenarios
Removals
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Years
Tota
l re
mo
vals
(10
00 m
3/ye
ar)
MSD CP RFSOS-I RFSOS-II RFSOS-III
MSD
CP
Results management scenarios
Forest structureMSD
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age-class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
HIT
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age-class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
LR
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age-class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
SR
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age-class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
0
10
20
30
40
Aspen and others Birch Norway spruce Scots pine
Results management scenarios
Forest growth and average carbon stock
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Years
Net
An
nu
al I
ncr
emen
t (m
3/h
a/ye
ar)
MSD HIT LR SR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Years
Ave
rag
e ca
rbo
n s
tock
(to
n/h
a)MSD HIT LR SR
Increment Carbon
Results management scenarios
Removals
• Total demand could be fulfilled under every scenario
• Increase share of thinnings• in MSD scenario: 24,400 m3/year
• in HIT scenario: 138,000 m3/year
• in LR scenario 194,200-195,800 m3/year
• No change in share of thinnings SR scenario
Discussion
Mortality:
•Low volume of removals + absence of natural mortality in
EFISCEN Accumulation of area in oldest age-
class
Discussion
Forest growth and carbon stocks
• Initial average growing stock: 154 m3/ha
• Initial average carbon stock: 50.4 ton/ha• Estimates are in accordance with literature
• Increase in average growing/carbon stock• Rate MSD scenario in accordance with literature
Discussion
Increasing wood demand
• Demand could be sustained• demand still lower than maximum volume of removal (MSD)
• High share of wood from deciduous species• Industrial use of this wood still limited
Discussion
Forest management
• HIT scenario: huge increase in thinnings possible• Set aside forests for nature conservation
• Silvicultural advantages
• LR: biggest increase in average growing/carbon stock
• SR: rather small effect on average growing/carbon stock
Conclusions
Expected increase in removals is sustainable• More equal distribution of area over age-classes
• Expected increase does not exceed maximum sustainable
cut (MSD scenario)
Expected demand could be fulfilled• High share of deciduous species
Beneficial to:• Increase share of thinnings
• Prolong rotation length