Has Idaho Bitten Off More Than It Can Chew?

Climate Change Impacts in the Snake River Basin

Nathan VanRheenen and Richard N. Palmer

Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

-University of Washington-

www.tag.washington.edu

CIG Seminar - May 27, 2004

Politically Incorrect Title:

Future Streamflow Scenarios and System Management in the Face of:

Dwindling fish stocks Thirsty farmers

Demanding energy users Effective lobbyists

Government “solutions” Climate change

Tragically slow decision-making processes

In the beginning …

Colsim, Alan Hamlet Developed to investigate climate change impacts on Columbia River Basin water resources

Fish, Power, Irrigation, M&I Very effective for Col R

main stem

Major Drawback Snake River Basin

inadequately represented Most significant tributary 427 TAF Flow Aug. rule

Our Goal (Palmer, Lettenmaier, VanRheenen, Hamlet)

Develop a well-represented Snake River model of similar scale and usefulness of Colsim

Goals of Research

What are the long-range impacts of climate change on the managed system? Goal: Develop a model that incorporates

current and future operating rules and management strategies

Simulation Model of Snake River Basin (SnakeSim)

How can the potential impacts of climate change be mitigated? Goal: Develop a model that provides the

“best” management strategy for SRB users Optimization Model of SRB (SnakeOpt)

Background – Snake River Basin

Snake River – 1000 miles long 20 major reservoirs 14 MAF storage 17 MAF demands/water rights 700 MW hydropower capacity Brief history

Snake River Basin to Brownlee

Snake River Plain Aquifer

Political Landscape

Many users Many opinions Scientific controversy Established positions Political activism

Political Landscape

No More Ignoring the Obvious – Idaho Sucks Itself Dry – HCN, 2/95

“The department has handed out water rights and groundwater permits as if there’s no tomorrow."

"The fish were there first, but they didn’t fill out the (water rights) forms."

Political Landscape

1995 – BOR agrees to provide 427 TAF/yr for flow augmentation Goal likely to be met 80% of years Irrigation shortages that result

72 TAF in ave years, 335 TAF in dry years 427 TAF goal unmet in last 3 yrs due to

drought

“Flow augmentation is a failed experiment that has been scientifically discredited and should be dropped.” - Water Coalition President, Oct 2003

Political Landscape

Snake River water right moratorium ends, but permits will not be processed – DOE, 7/99

To Breach or Not to Breach – HCN, 2/00 Salmon Plan Calls for Sacrifices, Federal

Remedies Contain Something for All Sides to Criticize – SSR, 7/00

Dredging Plans Stall on the Snake River – HCN, 3/03

Andrus says Dams a Problem, but Breaching is Impractical – SSR, 9/03

Calls for “Dramatically revamping river management policies”

Political Landscape

Advocates file suit to help protect fish

– SSR, 1/17/04 Fish Lobby: “Operation of the bureau's upper

Snake projects has a profound impact on the survival of Snake River salmon, and even affects fish downstream in the Columbia.”

Water Coalition Lobby: “It's an unfortunate reality that they're fixated on trying to secure Idaho water and send it downriver for a failed experiment.”

Political Landscape

Snake River Basin Adjudication May 15, 2004 - ID, BOR reach agreement with

Nez Perce after 10 years of negotiations Agreement

Tribe 50 taf water right for tribal lands, dated 1855 $23M for new sewer and water system $50M trust for land/water acquisition + $7M land

200 taf of Dworshak storage for summer flow aug 427 taf Flow Augmentation Rule nearly “guaranteed”

Snake River Models

SnakeSim

VICHydrology Model

Changes in Mean Temperature and

Precipitation or Bias Corrected Output

from GCMs

Jackson

Palisades

IslandPark

Ririe

Blackfoot

LakeWalcott

AmericanFalls

MilnerCJ Strike

Owyhee

Brownlee

Hell’sCanyon

Dworshak

Anderson

Cascade/Deadwood

Arrowrock/Lucky Peak

Release

Release

Release

Isp2

Henry’sFork Jackson

Release

ReleaseBlackfoot

Ririe

ReleaseReleaseRelease

Release

Release

Release

Release

Release

Anderson

Cascade

DworshakRelease

Release

ShoshoneTwin Falls

HagermanKing Hill

DikeWileyBliss

Upper Salmon A&B

Swan Falls

Owyhee

JSK

Oxbow

Reservoir

Node

Power Plant

Reach

Fish Target

Flood Target

Irrigation District

Delivery

WD01

WD27

WD27-1

WD65

WD63

Release

ISP

PAL

PAL5AMFMIL2

AND

ALP

CDW

CJS2

CJS3

BRN

DWR

DWR3

Clarkston

Legend

WD02

WD01-1

WD01-3

WD01-2

WD01-4

WD01-5

WD01-7

WD01-6

Rir2

Pal3

PAL

WD01-8

WD01-9

Pal2

WD01-10

WD01-11

WD01-12WD01-13WD01-14WD01-15WD01-16

WD01-17

WD63-1

WD63-2

WD63-3

WD02-1WD02-2

Cjs

ALP

Cdw2

WD65-1

WD65-2

Dwr2

Dwr3

Dwr4

Pal5

Pal4

Mil2

Cjs2

Cjs3

SnakeOpt

PNW Climate Change ScenariosDelta T, 2020s

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

J F M A M J J A S O N D

De

gre

es

C

hadCM2

hadCM3

PCM3

ECHAM4

mean

Delta T, 2040s

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

J F M A M J J A S O N D

De

gre

es

C

hadCM2

hadCM3

PCM3

ECHAM4

mean

Precipitation Fraction, 2020s

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Frac

tion

hadCM2

hadCM3

PCM3

ECHAM4

mean

Precipitation Fraction, 2040s

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Fra

ctio

nhadCM2

hadCM3

PCM3

ECHAM4

mean

~ + 1.7 C ~ + 2.5 C

Somewhat wetter winters and perhaps somewhat dryer summers

Snake System Flows – Jackson Lk

Flow at Jackson Lake

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh

ou

sa

nd

ac

re-f

ee

t

base

comp2020

comp2040

Snake System Flows – Milner

Flow at Milner

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

tho

us

an

d a

cre

-fe

et

base

comp2020

comp2040

Snake System Flows – Boise/Payette

Flows into Boise and Payette Rivers

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh

ou

sa

nd

ac

re-f

ee

t

base

comp2020

comp2040

Snake System Flows – Dworshak R.

Flow at Dworshak

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh

ou

sa

nd

ac

re-f

ee

t

base

comp2020

comp2040

Snake System Flows – Clarkston

Flow at Clarkston

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh

ou

sa

nd

ac

re-f

ee

t

base

comp2020

comp2040

Overall Streamflow Trends - comp2020

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%O

ct

De

c

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

Au

g

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oct

De

c

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

Au

g

-60%

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

Oct

De

c

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

Au

g

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Oct

De

c

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

Au

g

SnakeSim Operations Model

SnakeSim Operations Model

Purpose: Measure the projected impacts of climate change on SRB water resources

Considers Major surface water features Accepted management practices/rules System uses

e.g., flood control, irrigation, fish, hydropower Groundwater/Surface water interactions

SnakeSim – Upper Snake Storage

Upper Snake Storage

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh

ou

sa

nd

ac

re-f

ee

t

base

comp2020

comp2040

SnakeSim – Middle Snake Storage

Middle Snake Storage

800

1200

1600

2000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh

ou

sa

nd

ac

re-f

ee

t

base

comp2020

comp2040

SnakeSim – Boise/Payette Storage

Boise/Payette Storage

600

1000

1400

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh

ou

sa

nd

ac

re-f

ee

t

base

comp2020

comp2040

SnakeSim – Dworshak Storage

Dworshak Storage

1800

2200

2600

3000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Septh

ou

sa

nd

ac

re-f

ee

t

base

comp2020

comp2040

SnakeSim – Snake System Storage

Total Snake Storage

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

tho

us

an

d a

cre

-fe

et

base

comp2020

comp2040

Overall Storage Trends - comp2020

% Change in STO - Upper Snake

-15%

-5%

5%

Oct

De

c

Fe

b

Ap

r

Jun

Au

g% Change in STO - Middle Snake

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug

% Change in STO - SRB Storage

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Oct

Dec

Feb Apr

Jun

Aug

SnakeSim – Groundwater Response

Recharge/discharge change as irrigation patterns change

Decreases in irrigation result in decreases in recharge and discharge

BOR estimates SRPA elev decreases 40 feet in next 50 years due to irrig. restrictions

Impacts of mgmt likely far greater than impacts of climate change on gw

Flow at Milner

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

tho

us

an

d a

cre

-fe

et

base

comp2020

comp2040

SRP Aquifer Discharge to Snake River

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Ch

an

ge

fro

m B

as

e C

as

e (

taf)

comp2020

comp2040

Snake River Plain Aquifer

SnakeSim – Implications

Nature of flow shifts due to climate change are significant…

Water quality and fish implications System operations implications Need to investigate impacts on water rights

system and conjunctive uses Managed recharge as a cc mitigation strategy

But, “best” mitigation techniques aren’t known

SnakeOpt

Purpose: Develop a model that provides the “best” management strategy for SRB users

Considers Major surface water features System uses

e.g., flood control, irrigation, fish, hydropower Groundwater impacts 5 Major Irrigation Districts

Economic Objective Function

Jackson

Palisades

IslandPark

Ririe

Blackfoot

LakeWalcott

AmericanFalls

MilnerCJ Strike

Owyhee

Brownlee

Hell’sCanyon

Dworshak

Anderson

Cascade/Deadwood

Arrowrock/Lucky Peak

Release

Release

Release

Isp2

Henry’sFork Jackson

Release

ReleaseBlackfoot

Ririe

ReleaseReleaseRelease

Release

Release

Release

Release

Release

Anderson

Cascade

DworshakRelease

Release

ShoshoneTwin Falls

HagermanKing Hill

DikeWileyBliss

Upper Salmon A&B

Swan Falls

Owyhee

JSK

Oxbow

Reservoir

Node

Power Plant

Reach

Fish Target

Flood Target

Irrigation District

Delivery

WD01

WD27

WD27-1

WD65

WD63

Release

ISP

PAL

PAL5AMFMIL2

AND

ALP

CDW

CJS2

CJS3

BRN

DWR

DWR3

Clarkston

Legend

WD02

WD01-1

WD01-3

WD01-2

WD01-4

WD01-5

WD01-7

WD01-6

Rir2

Pal3

PAL

WD01-8

WD01-9

Pal2

WD01-10

WD01-11

WD01-12WD01-13WD01-14WD01-15WD01-16

WD01-17

WD63-1

WD63-2

WD63-3

WD02-1WD02-2

Cjs

ALP

Cdw2

WD65-1

WD65-2

Dwr2

Dwr3

Dwr4

Pal5

Pal4

Mil2

Cjs2

Cjs3

SnakeOpt - Approach

LP/SLP Decomposition Objective Function

5-year Model Maximize

Z = Flood control benefit+ Environ. benefit+ Farming profit+ Hydropower profit

Subject to Inflows, PET, Precip,

Crop values and costs, Energy demand, Groundwater

Year

Etc.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. n

5-yr Model Optimum

Redefine constraints,Add Value Judgments

1-yr Model Optimum

Redefine constraints

SnakeOpt - Approach

LP/SLP Decomposition

Objective Function 1-year Model

Redefine constraints with 5-year model month 12 conditions

Add value judgments to obj fn components

Year

Etc.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. n

5-yr Model Optimum

Redefine constraints,Add Value Judgments

1-yr Model Optimum

Redefine constraints

SnakeOpt - Approach

2 Applications1. Long-Range Planning

20-40 yrs to planning horizon

Evaluate long-term optimal system operation strategies

2. Annual Planning Given 3-5 year forecast

and predicted ENSO/PDO states

How much water can irrigators, utilities, and fish get in the next year to ensure a sustainable future?

Year

Etc.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. n

5-yr Model Optimum

Redefine constraints,Add Value Judgments

1-yr Model Optimum

Redefine constraints

SnakeOpt – 1st Cut (no hydropower)

427 TAF met

SnakeOpt - Demonstration

No hydropower due to running SLP time No flood control costs/benefits

Loose Flow/Storage constraints No environmental costs/benefits

Min flow target constraints

Integrated SnakeSim/SnakeOpt Framework

Purpose To test optimal management strategies in

the simulated system and evaluate their “true” effectiveness

Approach Perform rigorous sensitivity analysis in

SnakeSim around optimal values to generate tradeoff curves for management

Integrated SnakeSim/SnakeOpt Framework

Preliminary feedback from IDWR as to the general approach and purpose “Potentially of tremendous value” Allow first glimpses into impacts of “shifting

uses” Adaptation of approach to other

regional water suppliers

SRB Modeling Effort - Horizon

End June Complete SnakeOpt and integrated

SnakeSim/SnakeOpt model Mid June

Incorporate 85-year streamflows into SnakeSim and SnakeOpt

Improved ET calculation June, July

Interview ID water users for value judgment data

Meet with IDWR to discuss results, etc.