HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Holiday Spend
Analysis 2017 Full Season Recap
Information and Analytics
January 2018
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Executive Summary – Full Season Update
Overall growth for the 2017 Full Holiday Shopping Season was the
strongest of the last 4 years, at 6.2%
Retail growth was 5.4%, more than 28% ahead of last year’s retail
growth of 3.6%
Retail eCommerce sales growth continues to out-pace brick and
mortar growth, ending at 10.4% vs.4.0% for Brick & Mortar.
eCommerce overall sales growth slowed in General Merchandise for
the Full Season, suggesting that Brick & Mortar activity still dominates
as consumers draw closer to Christmas.
Specialty Retailer was the only Retail category to show any
significant increase in eCommerce sales growth over 2016.
For the Full Season, eCommerce average ticket exceed brick and
mortar average ticket across all Retail categories, except in
Electronics and Appliances, where in-store average ticket is 37%
higher than eCommerce.
Houston won the Holiday Season, with 10.9% overall spending
growth, no doubt aided by aggressive hurricane recovery. The most
growth was seen in Building Materials (31%) and Furniture (22%)
Southwest and New England Regions had the strongest US growth
for Full Season, while Mid-Atlantic had the weakest performance.
Los Angeles (4.0%), San Francisco (4.1%) and Seattle (6.1%) drove
retail sales growth for the West region, while Houston (15.7%),
Phoenix (4.8%), and San Antonio (1.0%) drove the Southwest region
growth for Full Season.
Among the largest metro areas in the US, the highest Retail average
ticket growth (brick & mortar) for Full Season was in Houston at
8.0%, driven by Building Materials/DIY; Columbus, OH had the lowest
average ticket growth at -0.9%, driven by Department Stores.
Total US Level Observations State & MSA Level Observations
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Spending Growth: Pre-Holiday, Thanksgiving + Black Friday, Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, MidSeason, Full Season
We saw an impressive pickup in 2017 across pre-holiday, TH+BF, Cyber Monday, and a strong holiday season finish
Total Spend
YoY Growth
4.9%
2.8% 3.4%
5.7% 5.2%
10.6%
7.8%
11.9%
7.9% 7.5%
5.6%
11.3%
2.7% 2.7%
3.7%
9.2%
1.8%
4.7%
6.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Pre-Holiday TH + BF TH to CM MIDSEASON Full Season
Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations. Pre-Holiday defined as the approximate 3-week period, starting November 1 and continuing through to the day before Thanksgiving.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
The 2017 Full Holiday Shopping Season was the strongest of the last 4 years.
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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3.4%
1.7% 1.6%
5.9%
3.5%
9.4% 9.0% 9.3%
5.3%
6.3% 5.8%
8.0%
1.8% 2.4%
2.0%
6.6%
3.2% 3.3% 3.6%
5.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Pre-Holiday TH + BF TH to CM MIDSEASON Full Season
Spending Growth: Pre-Holiday, Thanksgiving + Black Friday, Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, MidSeason, Full Season
We saw an impressive pickup in 2017 across pre-holiday, TH+BF, Cyber Monday, and continuing through the Full Season
Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations. Pre-Holiday defined as the approximate 3-week period, starting November 1 and continuing through to the day before Thanksgiving.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
Retail Spend
YoY Growth
2017 Full Season Holiday Growth out-paced 2016 Full Season Growth by 28%.
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Transactions, Average Ticket and Sales: Full Season Holiday Spending eCommerce spending appears to be trickling down to include more everyday items
Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
Retail Sector – Transactions, Average Ticket and Sales Trends
YoY Growth
2.0%
12.8%
3.6% 1.9%
-2.1%
1.7%
4.0%
10.4%
5.4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Full Season 2017Brick & Mortar
Full Season 2017eCommerce
Full Season 2017Total
Transactions Average Ticket Sales• The season ended with a healthy
overall retail growth rate of 5.4%.
• eCommerce transactions grew at
a pace more than 6x faster than
brick & mortar for the full season.
• The slower growth in average
ticket size at eCommerce
suggests that consumers are
replenishing lower-priced
everyday items with higher
frequency, along with holiday
shopping.
Key Takeaways
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Total Spend Growth by Category: Full Season Electronics & Appliances was the strongest growth category throughout the holiday season
Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
Growth Breakdown by Retail Category
8.3% 6.9%
6.1%
2.8% 2.8% 2.4%
-0.6%
Electronics &Appliances
Building Materials& DIY
SpecialtyRetailers
Furniture &Home Furnishings
Clothing &Accessories
GeneralMerchandise
Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books/Music
YoY Growth
Total Retail 5.4%
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Average Ticket Size by Category: Full Season Building Materials/DIY remained the strongest average ticket growth versus all other retail industries, most of
which remained flat
Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
5.0%
1.4%
0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
-0.4%
BuildingMaterials/DIY
Clothing &Accessories
SpecialtyRetailers
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Electronics &Appliances
GeneralMerchandise
Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books/Music
Ticket Growth by Retail Category
YoY Growth
Total Retail 1.7%
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Average Ticket Size by Category: Full Season Electronics and Appliance stores’ higher average ticket in Brick and Mortar stores suggests that shoppers still
prefer to ‘test the merchandise’ before buying
Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
$84.11 $79.04
$219.40
$37.53
$56.70
$152.44
$80.63
$192.65
$113.17
$263.61
$100.58 $107.29
$96.58 $89.39
BuildingMaterials/DIY
Clothing &Accessories
Furniture/Home Furnishings
GeneralMerchandise
SpecialtyRetailers
Electronics &Appliances
Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books/Music
Brick & Mortar
eCommerce
Average Ticket Size by Retail Category
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Total Spending by Channel: Full Season eCommerce ended up at 29% of total sales
Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
Brick & Mortar vs. eCommerce
75% 76% 73% 74% 71% 72% 70% 71%
25% 24% 27% 26% 29% 28% 30% 29%
2016TH+BF
2016TH to CM
2016MIDSEASON
2016FULL SEASON
2017TH+BF
2017TH to CM
2017MIDSEASON
2017FULL SEASON
Brick & Mortar eCommerce
Percent of Spending by Channel
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Spend Growth by Category: Full Season
Note: Figures exclude gasoline stations.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
Brick & Mortar vs. eCommerce – Selected Categories
YoY Growth
Brick & Mortar eCommerce Total
2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
Building Materials & DIY 9.8% 6.1% 17.0% 12.9% 10.7% 6.9%
Clothing & Accessories -0.8% 2.1% 5.4% 6.0% 0.1% 2.8%
Electronics & Appliances 7.1% 7.9% 13.2% 10.6% 8.5% 8.3%
Furniture & Home Furnishings 0.5% 0.6% 7.8% 8.3% 2.2% 2.8%
General Merchandise -2.8% 2.2% 29.0% 6.5% -0.3% 2.4%
Specialty Retailers 2.1% 4.4% 8.0% 10.7% 3.3% 6.1%
Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books/Music -6.9% -1.1% 19.0% 3.1% -0.7% -0.6%
Total Retail 0.1% 5.4% 9.0% 11.0% 2.0% 5.4%
Notable acceleration Notable deceleration
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Regional
Spending
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Regional Retail Sales Growth: Full Season The Southwest led all regions, perhaps a halo effect of hurricane recovery
Note: Brick & Mortar only. Figures exclude gasoline stations.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
Total Retail Growth
4.0% (2017)
1.6% (2016)
5.0% (2017)
1.4% (2016)
4.0% (2017)
0.9% (2016)
5.7% (2017)
-0.6% (2016)
4.2% (2017)
4.8% (2016)
5.5% (2017)
0.9% (2016)
0.7% (2017)
0.4% (2016)
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Top MSA Retail Sales Growth: Full Season Among the largest US cities, Houston and Miami lead in brick & mortar retail sales growth
Note: Brick & Mortar only. Figures exclude gasoline stations.
Source: First Data aggregated data.
Total Retail Growth
4.0% (2017)
1.6% (2016)
Ttl Midwest: 5.0%
Chicago: -0.4%
Minneapolis: 2.4%
Ttl South: 4.0%
Atlanta: 2.9%
Miami: 7.5% Ttl Southwest: 5.7%
Houston: 15.7%
Dallas: 0.4%
Ttl West: 4.2%
LA: 4.0%
SF: 4.1%
Ttl New England: 5.5%
Boston: 5.3%
Providence: 6.5%
Ttl Mid Atlantic: 0.7%
New York: 2.6%
Philadelphia: 3.7%
Washington DC: 1.0%
HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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HOLIDAY SPEND ANALYSIS | JANUARY 2018 | ©FIRST DATA CORPORATION. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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Methodology
All data is proprietary transaction data from First Data’s systems
Our analysis includes all card-based forms of payment and is based
on actual, same-store sales activity
We have selected 1.3MM merchants’ POS activity as a
representative sample:
― 1.1MM Brick & Mortar
― 200K eCommerce
Selection criteria included all merchants with 13 months of consecutive
activity since October 2016
Additional filtering parameters were applied to exclude merchants
disproportionately impacted by non-economic activities (i.e. natural
disaster)
All growth rates reflect a year-over-year basis
Pre-Holiday dates include 11/02–11/23/2016 (prior year) and
11/01–11/22/2017 (current year)
Thanksgiving and Black Friday comparisons covered 11/24–11/25/2016
(prior year) and 11/23–11/24/2017 (current year)
Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday comparisons covered 11/24-11/28/2016
(prior year) and 11/23-11/27/2017 (current year)
MidSeason comparisons covered 10/28-12/18/2017 (current year) and
10/29-12/19/2016 (prior year)
Full Season comparisons covered 10/28-01/01/2018 (current year) and
10/29-01/02/2017 (prior year)