Hotel Performance Across Key European Markets · 2018-05-23 · Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17...

© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

Hotel Performance Across Key European Markets

Natalie Weisz – Research & Analysis Manager

[email protected]

© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Maths & Philosophy

Commercial Analysis

Research & Analysis

Natalie’s Timeline


STR, collecting data since 1985


Our cornerstone


What we do

Occ, ADR, RevPARSupply/DemandRevenueP&L

Existing supplyFuture supplyPipelineCharacteristics

Main KPIsMacro economic inputMicro economic input5 years/6 quarters/18 months

Performance Reports Supply Reports Forecast Reports

Research Studies

WhitepapersEvent ImpactRegional Performance ReviewsAd Hoc studies

AnalysisCompression Day of Week Event ImpactBespoke client reporting


1. Global Overview

2. Europe continues to fly

3. Central & Eastern Europe – positivity all around

4. Russian recovery continues?

5. Sun shining in Euro Med

6. Strong and steady Germany

7. Brexit means..

8. Amsterdam boost

9. Looking ahead

Agenda


Global Overview


MiddleEast

SouthernAfrica

NorthernAfrica

+2.7%

Global RevPAR % Change

USD, Europe in EUR, Constant Currency, Full Year 2017

Europe

Asia

+3.2%

+3.8%

+5.6%

+37.9%

+4.6%

-5.6%

+3.5%

Australia & Oceania

+3.7%

NorthAmerica

CentralAmerica

SouthAmerica


1.9%

1.2%

2.6%

0.8%

5.2%

1.3%

3.3%

1.6%

2.8%

3.3%

4.9%

3.2%

4.0%

7.0%

6.2%

2.5%

North America &Caribbean

Central America South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania

Supply Demand

Significant demand growth across the world

Global Supply & Demand % Change, Full Year 2017


US Concerns…Trumped Up

0%

5%

10%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (F) 2019 (F)

Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change


-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2015 2016 2017

Supply % change

Demand % change

RevPAR % change

Intra-APAC travel continues to drive demand

Asia Pacific – Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, USD, CC, Full Year 2015-2017


Middle East supply growth has outpaced demand for the past 3 yearsUSD, CC, Full Year 2011-2017

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



Significant supply growth is still on the way across the Middle East

Demand will need to grow significantly

105,616 more rooms

by 2020

489 seats on A380 & 4

days Length of Stay

42 more A380s daily in the sky


Dubai has a pipeline of over 60k rooms Dubai supply and pipeline from AM:PM

20172022

Existing Hotel

PipelineHotel


Europe continues to fly


2%2%

4%

6%

2%

5%5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018


Demand outpacing supply for 5 consecutive years

Europe – Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, EUR, CC, Full Year 2012 – 2017, Q1 2018


40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2017 2016 2008

2017 occupancies now almost 10% above previous peakFull Year 2008, 2016 & 2017


Vienna

Madrid

London

Brussels

Europe – RevPAR % Change, LC, Full Year

Dublin

Edinburgh

Paris

Lisbon

Helsinki

St. Petersburg

Moscow

Zurich

Barcelona

Amsterdam

Istanbul

BelgradeBucharest

Kiev

Budapest

BerlinWarsaw

Prague

22

20

19

18

12

10

19

-2 2

8

9

2

4

35

810

8

11

15

Copenhagen

Europe strong across the board in 2017

3

Rome

Athens10

1

2

4

7

# Compression Nights (>90% Occ) ADR Premium

Market 2007 2017 2007 2017

Dublin 27 145 13% 23%

Prague 24 126 21% 19%

Lisbon 27 92 17% 29%

Budapest 27 86 19% 21%

Athens 28 87 17% 14%

Dublin and Prague lead the wayTop 5 growth markets – compression nights – 2007 vs 2017


Market 2007 2017 2007 2017

Brussels 64 37 53% 64%

Rome 42 18 13% 15%

Moscow 42 14 35% 25%

Paris 48 2 14% 42%

Istanbul 50 1 5% 12%

Terror impact drives down performance Bottom 5 growth markets – compression nights – 2007 vs 2017

Hotels have shown increased resilience to terror attacks

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

London Manchester Centre Barcelona Istanbul Brussels Paris Nice Berlin

Recovered: Nice(1), Brussels (2), Istanbul (2)

No Impact: London, Manchester, Barcelona, Berlin

In Recovery: Paris (2+ years later)

RevPAR indexed to month before terror, 12 months rolling, LC


Central & Eastern Europe –positivity all around


Eastern Europe EuphoriaFull Year 2017 RevPAR % Change – Local currency

19

15

11

9

15

4

10

4720

9

7

4

13

-2

3

14

24

4

16

36

1018

5

9

17

8Tallinn

St Petersburg

Nizhny NovgorodYekaterinburg

Novosibirsk

Astana

Almaty

BakuTblisi

Sochi

Voronezh

Kazan

MoscowRiga

Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot Vilnus

Kiev

Bucharest

SofiaBelgrade

Ljubljana

Bratislava

Prague

Budapest

Krakow

Warsaw


Eastern Europe EuphoriaFull Year 2017 RevPAR % Change – Local currency

19

15

11

9

15

4

10

4720

9

7

4

13

-2

3

14

24

4

16

36

1018

5

9

17

8Tallinn

St Petersburg

Nizhny NovgorodYekaterinburg

Novosibirsk

Astana

Almaty

BakuTblisi

Sochi

Voronezh

Kazan

MoscowRiga

Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot Vilnus

Kiev

Bucharest

SofiaBelgrade

Ljubljana

Bratislava

Prague

Budapest

Krakow

Warsaw


Central & Eastern Europe

Central Eastern Europe – Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, Full Year 2007-2017, Q1 2018

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018



Central Eastern Europe – strongest pipeline marketsTop 10 Pipeline Cities – Room count – as at March 2018

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Vilnius

Poznan

Bucharest

Sofia

Saint Petersburg

Gdansk/Gdynia/Sopot

Budapest

Tbilisi

Warsaw

Moscow

ThousandsPipeline


Sun shining in Euro Med


2017 was a fantastic year across the MediterranenFull Year 2017, RevPAR % change - constant currency

Istanbul34

Canary Islands5

Tunis38Greek Islands21

Italian Islands10

Algarve10

Marrakech17

Cairo81

Sharm El Sheikh119

Barcelona 10

Marbella 15

Cote D Azur / Provence0

Eilat1

Tel Aviv3

Lisbon 22Balearic Islands5

Bodrum65

Croatian Coast15


SpainMain KPIs – EUR, Full Year 2017

74.5%Occupancy+0.5%

114.44ADR+7.8%

85.28RevPAR+8.4%


A tale of two halvesDaily Occupancy and ADR % change, April 2017 to March 2018

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Occupancy % ADR %

April May June July August September October November December January February March


2018 ForecastNorth Africa and Mediterranean to see double digit RevPAR growth… Barcelona with flat RevPAR at best

Recovery in Egypt & Turkey New highs in EuroMed Uncertainty in Barcelona


Brexit means…


Growth widespread across the UK in 2017

Liverpool

13

6

4 London

Aberdeen-6

12

1

Edinburgh

Manchester

Belfast

Glasgow

Cardiff

3 Newcastle

4Bristol

8

Leeds0

Birmingham 2

0 Southampton

UK Total: +4.2%London: +4.4%

Regional UK: +3.7%

5 Nottingham

17

5

Oxford6

1 Cambridge

8Blackpool

9Inverness

9Plymouth

Full Year 2017, RevPAR & Change


-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

ADR (£) ADR ($) ADR (EUR)

… driven by Sterling weakness which is now ‘used up’London Exchange Rate Impact, January 2017 – March 2018, GDP vs USD & EUR


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18

Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg

London, January 2017 – March 2018, GBP

As a result occupancies have turned negative and ADR is following


… occupancy likely to be negative in the short to medium termLondon Supply and Demand % Change, 12 month moving average

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Supply Demand

Actual Forecast


Strong and stable Germany


Events drive strong and stable performanceGermany – Rooms supply, demand & RevPAR % Change, EUR, Full Year 2012-2017, Q1 2018

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018



Dortmund and Dusseldorf on topGermany – Pipeline/Existing % – Data from AM:PM, 09 May 2018

Hamburg+ 24%

Berlin+ 10%

Frankfurt am Main+ 18%

Munich+ 20%

Dusseldorf+ 28%

Dortmund+ 38%

Hanover + 14%

Cologne + 9%

Stuttgart + 12%

Dresden+ 9%


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Dusseldorf Munich Hamburg

High supply increase impacts markets differently German Markets – RevPAR % Change, 12 month moving average

Strong demand

Longer to stabilize


Amsterdam boost


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018

Occ % Chg ADR % Chg RevPAR % Chg

Amsterdam on the up in 2017Full Year 2012 – 2017, Q1 2018, Local Currency

€ 117

81%

€144

2017


12.6%

9.9%

1.1%

23.9%

2017 Q1 2018

Transient RevPAR % change Group RevPAR % change

Transient segment thrives in 2017, while 2018 sees boost in groupsAmsterdam – RevPAR by Segment % Change, LC, Full Year 2017, Q1 2018


Amsterdam’s rooms & ancillary revenues on the up in 2017

Revenue Mix

72%

25%

3%

Rooms F&B Other

10%

3%

17%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Rooms F&B Other

RevPAR Growth

Revenues by Departments, EUR


Airport and Surrounding driving the growth Full Year 2017, RevPAR % Chg, Local Currency

Amsterdam

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol

Amsterdam CentreAmsterdam Surrounding

Museums Quarter & Vondelpark

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

AD

R %

Ch

g

Occ % Chg

BehindAhead


Amsterdam on top in ADR growth, yet behind in occupancyKey Netherlands Cities - Full Year 2017, Occ & ADR % Chg, Local Currency

AmsterdamUtrecht

Rotterdam Area

The Hague

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

AD

R %

Ch

g

Occ % Chg


Market 2016 2017 2016 2017

Amsterdam 41 79 23% 22%

Utrecht 53 61 17% 18%

Rotterdam 11 10 -2% 16%

The Hague 28 42 7% 15%

Amsterdam leads in compression nightsCompression Analysis – 2016 vs 2017


Amsterdam’s occupancy to remain positive moving forward Amsterdam Supply and Demand % Change, 12 month moving average

Actual Forecast

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Supply Demand


Looking Ahead


STR’s forecast overview for full year 2018Forecast – February 2018 Edition

Paris Moscow Brussels

London Warsaw Hamburg

Amsterdam Athens Zurich

Recovery Continues

Strong Growth

Supply Challenges


© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

Thank You!

[email protected]

Natalie Weisz

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Hotel Performance Across Key European Markets · 2018-05-23 · Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17...

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