Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013World Water Day: Water

Cooperation

‘Human Capital and Water: Assessing the direct relationship and the impact of urban dimensions’,

By Sylvia Szabo, Social Statistics & Demography, University of Southampton.

Human Capital and Water Assessing the direct relationship and the impact

of urban dimensions

Multi-disciplinary Research Week

Sylvia Szabo, Social Statistics & Demography(S.Szabo@soton.ac.uk)

Motivation

• Malthusian, neo-Malthusian & counter arguments (Ehrlich, Boserup, Simon, Cohen);

• Current state of access to safe drinking water;

• Emerging urban challenges and opportunities;

• Systematic regional, global studies limited

• Reliable household level data available (e.g. DHS).

The global water situation

• The target of halving the proportion of people without SDR was met;

• However challenges remain, in particular in SSA

Urbanization in developing countries• Globally 53% urban; projected to increase to 67% by 2050;

• Megacities, with population of at least 10 million growing rapidly. Currently, 23 megacities; projected to 37 by 2025;

• Urban growth, often uncontrolled and unplanned;

• Serious threats to public health, sanitation and environment

• Inequity and inequality in human development, with increasing migration of the poor

Urbanization impact• Overall urbanisation likely to have positive effect on

access to education and as such it stimulates human capital accumulation;

• However: growth of slums, poor access to water, poor sanitation and greater burden of disease make children more disadvantaged (education and health);

• Rapid urban growth both a challenge and an opportunity, can positively and/or negatively impact the association between human capital and water access.

Research hypothesesH1: There is a positive independent association between human capital and access to improved water sources.

H2: Level of urbanization influences the magnitude and direction of the association between human capital and water access.

H3: The magnitude of the association between human capital and access to water varies depending on countries’ level of development.

Macro-level HC- SDW association (LDCs vs. non-LDCs)

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Afghanistan Angola

Bangladesh

BeninBurkina-Faso

Burundi

Cambodia

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Djibouti

Ethiopia

Gambia

Guinea

Guinea Bissau

Haiti

Lesotho

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

MauritaniaMozambique

Myanmar

Nepal

Niger

Rwanda

Samoa

Sao Tome and Principle

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Sudan

Tanzania

Timor-Leste

Togo

Uganda

Yemen

Zambia

Albania

Algeria

Armenia

AustraliaAustriaBarbadosBelarus Belgium

Belize

Bolivia

Bosnia-Hercegovina

BotswanaBrazil

Bulgaria 

Cameroon

Canada

Cape Verde

Chile

China

Colombia

Congo (Brazzaville)

Costa Rica

Cote d'Ivoire

Croatia

Cuba

Cyprus Czech RepublicDenmark

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

EstoniaFijiFinlandFrance

Gabon

GeorgiaGermany

Ghana

Greece

Guatemala Guyana

Honduras

HungaryIceland

India

Indonesia

Iran

Iraq

IrelandIsraelItaly

Jamaica

Japan

JordanKazakhstan

Kenya

Kuwait

Kyrgyzstan

Laos

LatviaLebanon

Lithuania

LuxembourgMalaysiaMaldives

Malta

Marshall Islands

Mauritius

Mexico Moldova

Mongolia

Montenegro

Morocco

Namibia

Netherlands New Zealand

Nicaragua

Nigeria

Norway

Oman

Pakistan

Palau

Panama

Papua New Guinea

ParaguayPeru

Philippines

PortugalQatarRepublic of Korea

Romania

Russian FederationSerbiaSingapore SlovakiaSlovenia

South Africa

Spain

Sri Lanka

Suriname

Swaziland

SwedenSwitzerland

Syria

Tajikistan

TFYR Macedonia

Thailand

Tonga

Trinidad and TobagoTunisia

Turkey U.S.AUkraineUnited Arab Emirates (UAE)Uruguay

Uzbekistan

Vietnam

Zimbabwe

2040

6080

100

Acc

ess

to im

prov

ed w

ater

sou

rce

2 4 6 8 10 12 14Mean years of schooling

LDC non-LDC

Association between education and access to improved water sources by level of development

Conceptual framework

• Motivated by the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (inspired by works of Amartya Sen & Institute of Development Studies);

- Conceptual factors (vulnerability aspect) affect initial livelihood resources/capital (financial, human, social)

- Available capital Livelihood strategies & mitigating factors Livelihood outcomes

• Complemented by literature/policy sources in the area of world development (FAO, WB, WHO).

Conceptual framework

Data & methods• Database of 35 DHS countries (including 19 LDCs and 16 non-LDCs)

– More than half million cases (households)• Descriptive statistics and multilinear logistic regression

• Key variables:

– Safe/unsafe water (UN classification);– Human capital (mean years of education of hh members in

working ages);– Place of residence (urban/rural);– Contextual urban variables (urban growth, proportion of urban

population, urban population residing in slums).

Does human capital increase the odds to access water?

12

24

68

10P

redi

cted

odd

s

0 5 10 15Household education

Predicted odds of access to improved water source

Urban impact

13

24

68

1012

Pred

icte

d od

ds

rural urban

24

68

10

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Urban growth (%)

24

68

1012

Pred

icte

d od

ds

15 25 35 45 55 65 75

Proportion urban (%)

05

1015

15 25 35 45 55 65 75

Urban population in slums (%)

Predicted odds of access to improved water source by urban dimensions

14

02

46

8

Pre

dict

ed o

dds

rural urban

05

1015

29 39 49 59 69Proportion urban (%)

05

1015

2025

Pre

dict

ed o

dds

2.51.5 2 3 3.5Urban growth (%)

010

2030

exp(

xb()

)

17 27 37 47 57Urban population in slums (%)

Predicted odds of access to improved water sources by urban dimensions (non-LDCs)

02

46

8

Pre

dict

ed o

dds

rural urban

05

1015

13 23 33 43

Proportion urban (%)

24

68

1012

Pre

dict

ed o

dds

2.8 3.2 3.6 4 4.4

Urban growth (%)

02

46

810

38 48 58 68 78

Urban population in slums (%)

Predicted odds of access to improved water sources by urban dimensions (LDCs)

Non-LDCs

LDCs

Conclusions & policy implications (1)• Human capital has a significant positive impact on access

to safe drinking water

– This impact is greater in the LDCs• Urbanisation has a significant mitigating impact on the

association between human capital and water access:

– Differentiated in non-LDCs (positive impact of urban growth and proportion urban)

– Negative in LDCs• HHs with female head of HH are more

likely to have access to SDW, in particular in LDCs.

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Conclusions and policy implications (2)• Investments in human capital are crucial, in particular

in the LDCs;

• Sustained urbanisation and urban planning are indispensable in order for households to benefit from the positive impact of living in towns/cities;

• Overall infrastructure and HHs’ distance to water source is key;

• Gender differentials still exist, greater in LDCs - scale up investments in gender equality;

• Integrated approach & multistakeholder collaboration.

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World Water Day: Water CooperationMultidisciplinary Research Week 2013