Human creativity and
the shale revolution: Will hydrocarbons continue to play a
role in Oklahoma’s future?
Outline Subjects covered in this brief
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Price spikes
and the call
for diversity
Technology
and
innovation
U.S. energy
policy that
allows
creativity
Unstoppable
global
demand So what for
Oklahoma
Global projection of renewables Clearly on the rise (Graph does not include hydroelectric power)
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Renewables share of power generation by region
World Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia S. & Cent. America North America
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2013, pg 37
Past decade gas prices
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Ancient Chinese saying (Not really)
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“ A billion Chinese are not going to continue to ride bikes, so that Americans can have 2 dollar gas!” - Confucius
Gas prices
• Response to price spikes of
‘05-’09
– Calls for increase price
controls
– Conservation mandates
– “Drill baby drill”
– Diversify into
alternatives and
renewables
• Importance of U.S. energy
policy
Spring of 2008
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Crude oil imports/exports
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Global petroleum market
Enter creativity
• Man’s ingenuity sought a solution to the global energy
constraints.
• Man began looking for energy in other places, and to harness the
energy all around, such as solar and wind.
• Man also turned back to oil and gas contained in very tight rock
and started what is now known as the shale revolution.
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U.S. energy policy
“The fracking revolution required more than just favorable geology; it also
took financiers with a tolerance for risk, a property-rights regime that let
landowners claim underground resources, a network of service providers
and delivery infrastructure, and an industry structure characterized by
thousands of entrepreneurs rather than a single national oil company.
Although many countries possess the right rock, none, with the exception
of Canada, boasts an industrial environment as favorable as that of the
United States.”
- Robert D. Blackwell and Meghan L. O’Sullivan “America’s Energy Edge: The Geopolitical Consequences of the Shale Revolution,” (Foreign Affairs,
March/April, 2014) Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs online.
How America is different
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U.S. energy policy Continued
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Hydraulic fracturing a brief history
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• Hydraulic fracturing is a
well-established
technology with a strong
environmental and safety
record
• The technology has been
used to complete more
than 1 million wells over
the past 60 years
Technology’s role: Why the revolution
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Traps vs. shale's
Migrating hydrocarbons
Impermeable
sealing layer Shale
Frack Porous and permeable
reservoir layer
Hydrocarbon Trap
organic rich
source layer
Fracture stimulation 5,000’ – 15,000’ below the surface
Hydraulic fracturing How it’s done
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Shale revolution timeline The accumulation of creativity and tenacity
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1976 – First 3D seismic survey
done by Western & GSI
1984 – Sun-Oil horizontal
drilling
1995 – Continental drills very productive horizontal wells in N.
Dakota
1997 – Mitchell
Energy drills 3 wells in
Barnett Shale using “slick
water” fracture
2001 – Devon Energy buys
Mitchell Energy
2003 – Devon announces
combination of slick-water
frack and horizontal drilling at
AAPG symposium
U.S. shale plays
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World shale plays
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Fuel to electricity generation
In quadrillion BTU’s
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Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook, June 2013, pg 29
A projection to 2040
World electricity demand A projection to 2040 In thousands of terawatt hours
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Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook, June 2013, pg 28
World energy demand A projection to 2040 In quadrillion BTU’s
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2025 2040
OECD World energy demand projection
North America Europe Other OECD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2025 2040
Non OECD World energy demand projection
China India Russia/Caspian Middle East Africa Latin America
Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook, June 2013, pg 49
Total hydrocarbon reserves Oil, coal, gas In Bboe
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-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Unit
ed S
tate
s
Russ
ia
Chin
a
Aust
ralia
Iran
Venuzu
ela
Saudi Ara
bia
Kaza
khst
an
Canada
South
Afr
ica
Qata
r
Iraq
Unit
ed A
rab E
mir
ate
s
Turk
menis
tan
Kuw
ait
Nig
eri
a
Alg
eri
a
Bra
zil
Mexic
o
Angola
Total reserves of hydrocarbons by country
Oil Coal Nat Gas
Top 10 U.S. states 2012 Natural gas production
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0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
TX LA PA OK WY CO NM AR WV UT
Natural Gas Marketed Production, million cu ft
Source: EIA.gov http://www.eia.gov/state/rankings/?sid=US#/series/47
U.S. energy policy
• Nations must have diversification of supply
• Policymakers recognize there is one (global) oil market
• Maintain a security margin and global spare capacity
• Government intervention and controls are not productive
• Build cooperative relations with export nations
• Build cooperative relations with import nations
• Maintain a proactive security framework
• Provide good quality information
• Maintain a technology-driven energy industry
• Commit to research, development and innovation across a broad spectrum of energy options
Source: Yergin, “Energy Security and Markets,” in Energy and Security: Toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy, eds. Jan H Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn (WDaniel ashington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2005), 55-57.
Yergin’s timeless 10 principles
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Thank You