57
CHAPTER 3 LECTURE OUTLINE Population Human Geography by Malinowski & Kaplan Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-1
CHAPTER 3 LECTURE OUTLINE
Population
Human Geography by Malinowski & Kaplan
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-1
Chapter 3 Modules
• 3A Population Growth in the Past • 3B World Population Today: The Americas • 3C World Population Today: Europe and Africa • 3D World Population Today: Asia and Oceania • 3E The Basic Demographic Equation and Fertility • 3F Mortality and Population Change • 3G The Demographic Transition Model • 3H Population Profiles • 3I Population Change in the Future • 3J Population Planning
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-2
3A: Population Growth in the Past
• Neolithic Revolution
• Domestication of livestock and agriculture
• Began about 12,000 years ago
• Slow but steady growth from 10,000 BCE until 1750
• Decline during plagues of the 1300s
• Industrial Revolution
• Mid-18th century
3-3 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display.
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-4
Figure 3A.1 World Population Growth
3I: Population Change in the Future 1
• Thomas Malthus
– 1798, An Essay on the Principle of Population
– Believed that food production would not keep up with population growth
• Neo-Malthusians
– Modern theorists who believe in Malthus’ notion that population growth will lead to global crisis
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-5
How Malthus’s theory works
• Food Supply increases arithmetically
• 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12
• People increase exponentially (or geometrically)
• 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-6
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-7
Figure 3I.1 Malthus’ View of Population Growth
The Reverend Thomas Malthus—
1766- 1834
• Industrial England
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-8
Charles Dickens's A Christmas Carol 1843
• “If they would rather die, . . . they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population.”
• Scrooge
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-9
'Man,' said the Ghost of Christmas Present, `… forbear that wicked cant until you have discovered What the surplus is, and Where it is. … It may be, that in the sight of Heaven, you are more worthless and less fit to live than millions like this poor man's child.
3I: Population Change in the Future 2
• Ester Boserup
– Argued that population growth stimulates societies to innovate and produce more food.
• Marxists
– Argue that food is poorly distributed
• Implosionists vs. Explosionists
– Implosionists believe lack of population will be a problem because jobs will be unfilled
– Explosionists are more Malthusian
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-10
Green Revolution 50s-70s
• Norman Borlaug– new varieties of wheat, rice, scientific farming methods—Nobel Peace Prize 1970
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-11
3J: Population Planning
• Can be controversial
– “Comstock Law”, 1873
– Resistance from some religious groups
• Modern focus is on cultural attitudes, contraceptives, better recordkeeping & technology, and improving the status of women
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-12
China’s One-Child Policy
• Began in late 1970s
• Restricts number of births for most couples
• Strictest in urban areas
• Weakest in rural, minority regions
• Boys preferred, girls sometimes aborted or given for adoption
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-13
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-14
Figure 3J.2 Total Fertility Rate in China
Density • Arithmetic Density
• Calculated by dividing a country’s population by its total land area. • Such as people/km2
• Physiologic Density
• Calculated by dividing a country’s population by its area of arable land. • people/km2 of
farmland
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-15
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-16
Figure 3B.1 Population in the Americas
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-17
Figure 3C.1 Population in Eurasia & Africa
3E: The Demographic Equation
3-18 Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display.
Future population = current population + births – deaths
+ immigrants – emigrants
How many children possible per woman? 20?
• 16--Average age of menarche (first menstrual period) in 19th century
• 18– able to carry a child to term
• Usually two years between children (with breast feeding)
• After 35, fertility drops
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display.
3E: Fertility
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
– # of children born per year per 1000 people in a population
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
– The # of children a woman can expect to have in her lifetime given current fertility rates
• Replacement Level of Fertility
– A TFR of 2.1-2.3
– Also called “zero population growth”
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-20
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-21
Figure 3E.1 Crude Birth Rates
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-22
Figure 3E.2 Total Fertility Rates
3F: Mortality
• Crude Death Rate (CDR)
– Number of deaths per year in a population per 1,000 people
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
– (The number of infants who die before age 1 /by all births) x 1000
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-23
Life expectancy= how many years will the average person live?
• ALWAYS ASK
– from when?
– If the life expectancy is 35, and starts from birth, then there is a high infant mortality rate.
• Three score years and ten
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-24
When do people die?
• 0-7 infants
• 16-25
– Women in childbirth
– Men in war, accidents
• 50s middle age diseases—heart disease, cancer, diabetes
• 70s old age-- pneumonia
2-25
Factors in population growth
• Density Dependent– infectious Disease
• Density independent – weather
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-26
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-27
Figure 3A.2 The Black Death in Europe
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-28
Figure 3A.3 Life Expectancies, 2010
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-29
Figure 3F.1 Crude Mortality Rates
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-30
Figure 3F.3 Infant Mortality Rates
3F: Natural Population Change
• Rate of Natural Increase as a % (RNI%)
– RNI = (crude birth rate – crude death rate) / 10
– Does NOT account for migration
• Rate of Population Growth
– Includes migration
• Doubling Time
– Doubling Time = 70 years / RNI%
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-31
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-32
Figure 3F.5 Rates of Natural Increase
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-33
Figure 3G.1 Demographic Transition Model
3G: Demographic Transition Model
– A model of demographic change based on Europe’s population in the 18th-20th centuries.
– Argues that, as a country modernizes, its fertility and mortality rates drop, but not at the same time.
– Because death rates drop before birth rates, population increase will occur.
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-34
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-35
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 3-36
Figure 3H.1 Population Profiles: Shows the # or % of a
population that is a particular age (or age range)
Demographic transition model
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-37
Thank you to Ms. Lina Trullinger
• Teacher at Bryan Station High School
• Lexington, Kentucky, United States
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-38
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-39
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-40
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-41
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-42
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-43
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-44
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-45
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-46
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-47
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-48
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-49
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-50
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-51
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-52
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-53
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-54
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-55
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-56
Copyright © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display. 2-57
