HURRICANE DECISION HURRICANE DECISION MAKINGMAKING

PRESENTED PRESENTED BY:BY: LARRY LARRY GISPERTGISPERT

A MONTAGE OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE GEORGES

FROM 18 - 28 OF SEP. 1998

A MONTAGE OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE GEORGES

FROM 18 - 28 OF SEP. 1998

THE AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON

HAS...

THE AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON

HAS...

1010 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICHNAMED STORMS, OF WHICH

66 WILL BE HURRICANES WILL BE HURRICANES

22 WILL BE MAJOR HURRICANESWILL BE MAJOR HURRICANES

Dr. Gray’s Predictionsstorms – hurricanes - majors

Dr. Gray’s Predictionsstorms – hurricanes - majors

1998 9 – 6 – 4 1999 14 – 9 – 4 2000 11 – 7 - 3 2001 12 – 7 – 2 2002 11 – 6 – 2 2003 14 – 8 - 3

1998 14 – 10 – 41998 14 – 10 – 4 1999 12 – 8 - 51999 12 – 8 - 5 2000 14 – 8 - 32000 14 – 8 - 3 2001 15 – 9 – 42001 15 – 9 – 4 2002 12 – 4 – 22002 12 – 4 – 2 2003 16 – 7 - 32003 16 – 7 - 3

Predicted ActualActual

1995-1999MOST ACTIVE FIVE YEARS IN HISTORY

1995-1999MOST ACTIVE FIVE YEARS IN HISTORY

65 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH65 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH

41 WERE HURRICANES 41 WERE HURRICANES

21 WERE MAJOR HURRICANES21 WERE MAJOR HURRICANES

REMEMBER, LARRY SAYS….REMEMBER, LARRY SAYS….

REGARDLESS OF HOW MANY REGARDLESS OF HOW MANY STORMS ARE PREDICTED FOR STORMS ARE PREDICTED FOR THE YEAR…..IT ONLY TAKES THE YEAR…..IT ONLY TAKES

ONE TO RUIN YOUR WHOLE ONE TO RUIN YOUR WHOLE DAYDAY

PROBABILITY OF A STORM COMING TO TAMPA BAY

PROBABILITY OF A STORM COMING TO TAMPA BAY

TROPICAL STORM 1 - IN - 10TROPICAL STORM 1 - IN - 10

HURRICANE 1 - IN - 17HURRICANE 1 - IN - 17

MAJOR HURRICANE 1 - IN - 25MAJOR HURRICANE 1 - IN - 25

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALESAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE

CATEGORY WINDSPEED

SURGEHEIGHTS

DAMAGE

1 74-95 7’ MINOR

2 96-110 13’ MODERATE

3 111-130 18’ MAJOR

4 131-155 22’ SEVERE

5 155+ 28’ CAT.

HURRICANE POPULATION AT RISK (2000 figures)

HURRICANE POPULATION AT RISK (2000 figures)

County 1 2 3 4 5HILLS. 173,628 234,762 288,911 336,712 366,769

MAN. 99,090 115,692 128,213 142,825 159,497

PASCO 136,757 156,027 200,000 245,136 274,288

PINE. 238,601 340,794 450,732 539,937 627,702

TOTAL 648,076 847,275 1,067,856 1,264,610 1,428,256

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY

EVACUATION ZONES

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY

EVACUATION ZONES

Yea!right

LARRY

YOUR TYPICAL LOCAL

EMERGENCY MANAGER

THE EMERGENCY MANAGER’S PLIGHT

THE EMERGENCY MANAGER’S PLIGHT

IF HE DOES EVERYTHING RIGHT IF HE DOES EVERYTHING RIGHT AND RECOMMENDS EVACUATION AND RECOMMENDS EVACUATION

WHEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES CALL WHEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES CALL

FOR IT….FOR IT…. 4 4 OUT OF OUT OF 55 TIMES THE TIMES THE STORM WILL TURN AND GO STORM WILL TURN AND GO

ELSEWHERE…....ELSEWHERE…....

EYE OF STORM IS 24 HRS. , BUT 39 MPH WINDS ARE 12 HRS. AWAY FROM TAMPA

EYE OF STORM IS 24 HRS. , BUT 39 MPH WINDS ARE 12 HRS. AWAY FROM TAMPA

NHC NORMAL TRACK ERROR

72 HRS. + or - 360 MILES

48 HRS. + or - 220 MILES

36 HRS. + or - 160 MILES

24 HRS. + or - 100 MILES

12 HRS. + or - 50 MILES

NHC NORMAL TRACK ERROR

72 HRS. + or - 360 MILES

48 HRS. + or - 220 MILES

36 HRS. + or - 160 MILES

24 HRS. + or - 100 MILES

12 HRS. + or - 50 MILES

EYEEYE

39 MPH WINDS

39 MPH WINDS

DURING HURRICANE GEORGESDURING HURRICANE GEORGES

OF THE 162,480 PEOPLE IN OF THE 162,480 PEOPLE IN HILLSBOROUGH WHO WERE HILLSBOROUGH WHO WERE

SUPPOSED TO EVACUATE, ONLY SUPPOSED TO EVACUATE, ONLY ABOUT 57,000 ACTUALLY DID….ABOUT 57,000 ACTUALLY DID….

REMEMBER, WE EVACUATE FOR SURGE

NOT WIND

REMEMBER, WE EVACUATE FOR SURGE

NOT WIND

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS MOBILE HOMES, WHO RULE IS MOBILE HOMES, WHO

MUST ALWAYS EVACUATEMUST ALWAYS EVACUATE

Courtney Campbell Causeway,

east end looking westward

New Office building on

Boyscout & Westshore

Dillard’s at Westshore Mall

Marriott Waterside

Downtown Tampa

Tampa General Hospital

on Davis Islands

MONTE CARLO TOWERSBAYSHORE BLVD.

Vencor Hospital

Interbay area

Downtown Tampa looking southward

from the Cass Street Bridge

Marathon Oil Terminals on

Palmetto Beach

FACTORS WE CONSIDER WHEN MAKING AN EVACUATION

DECISION

FACTORS WE CONSIDER WHEN MAKING AN EVACUATION

DECISION

TIME OF DAY FOR EVACUATION...TIME OF DAY FOR EVACUATION... SIZE AND TRACK OF STORM PROJECTED SIZE AND TRACK OF STORM PROJECTED

AT LANDFALL...AT LANDFALL... TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF

TROPICAL/GALE FORCE WINDS (39MPH)...TROPICAL/GALE FORCE WINDS (39MPH)... WHEN BEST TO CLOSE AREA SCHOOLS?WHEN BEST TO CLOSE AREA SCHOOLS? ANY SPECIAL EVENTS GOING ON...ANY SPECIAL EVENTS GOING ON... CONDITION OF ROADWAY NETWORK…CONDITION OF ROADWAY NETWORK…

IF YOU MUST EVACUATEIF YOU MUST EVACUATE

DO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLEDO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE GO TO THE HOME OF FRIENDS OR FAMILY GO TO THE HOME OF FRIENDS OR FAMILY

WHO LIVE IN A NON-EVACUATION ZONE.WHO LIVE IN A NON-EVACUATION ZONE. GO TO HOTEL, MOTEL.GO TO HOTEL, MOTEL. AS A LAST RESORT GO TO PUBLIC AS A LAST RESORT GO TO PUBLIC

SHELTERS OR LEAVE THE REGION.SHELTERS OR LEAVE THE REGION. REMEMBER MONEY, PAPERS, ID, MEDICINE REMEMBER MONEY, PAPERS, ID, MEDICINE

AND ARRANGE FOR PET CARE.AND ARRANGE FOR PET CARE.

IF YOU DON’T HAVE TO EVACUATE

IF YOU DON’T HAVE TO EVACUATE

STAY HOME AND PROTECT YOUR STAY HOME AND PROTECT YOUR WINDOWS AND OTHER OPENINGS.WINDOWS AND OTHER OPENINGS.

OFFER YOUR HOME TO SOME FAMILY OFFER YOUR HOME TO SOME FAMILY THAT MUST EVACUATE.THAT MUST EVACUATE.

GET PLENTY OF SUPPLIES….WATER, GET PLENTY OF SUPPLIES….WATER, FOOD, MEDICINE, BATTERIES, RADIO.FOOD, MEDICINE, BATTERIES, RADIO.

IDENTIFY YOUR SAFE-ROOM FOR THE IDENTIFY YOUR SAFE-ROOM FOR THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR

OWN SAFETY

TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR

OWN SAFETY

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HAS HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HAS NEARLY A MILLION PEOPLE LIVING NEARLY A MILLION PEOPLE LIVING HERE AND CLOSE TO 400,000 MAY HERE AND CLOSE TO 400,000 MAY

HAVE TO EVACUATEHAVE TO EVACUATE

NO ONE IS EXEMPT FROM A MANDATORY EVACUATION

ORDER

NO ONE IS EXEMPT FROM A MANDATORY EVACUATION

ORDER

BE SMART, BE SAFE, OBEY THE BE SMART, BE SAFE, OBEY THE LAW AND EVACUATE WHEN LAW AND EVACUATE WHEN

ORDERED TO DO SO. ORDERED TO DO SO. EVACUATION IS EVACUATION IS YOUR YOUR

RESPONSIBILITYRESPONSIBILITY

DISASTER RECOVERY PRIORITIES

DISASTER RECOVERY PRIORITIES

SEARCH AND RESCUE FOR VICTIMS...SEARCH AND RESCUE FOR VICTIMS... RESTORATION OF CRITICAL RESTORATION OF CRITICAL

SERVICES/FACILITIES...SERVICES/FACILITIES... DEBRIS MANAGEMENT...DEBRIS MANAGEMENT... PROVISION OF BASIC NEEDS TO PROVISION OF BASIC NEEDS TO

POPULATION...POPULATION... VICTIM/INSURANCE CO. INTERFACE...VICTIM/INSURANCE CO. INTERFACE...

ECONOMIC IMPACT TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION FROM A

WORST-CASE STORM

ECONOMIC IMPACT TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION FROM A

WORST-CASE STORM

$42.5 BILLION OF $42.5 BILLION OF INFRASTRUCTURE/CONTENTS LOSS……INFRASTRUCTURE/CONTENTS LOSS……

DOES NOT INCLUDE AN UNSPECIFIED DOES NOT INCLUDE AN UNSPECIFIED AMOUNT OF LOSS DUE TO LOST JOBS, AMOUNT OF LOSS DUE TO LOST JOBS,

TOURISM, ETC…… TOURISM, ETC……

TBRPC STUDY…..1992TBRPC STUDY…..1992

REMEMBER, THE SAGE OF DISASTERS PREACHES…..REMEMBER, THE SAGE OF DISASTERS PREACHES…..

IF YOU FAIL TO PLAN………IF YOU FAIL TO PLAN………

THEN YOU HAD BETTER PLAN TO THEN YOU HAD BETTER PLAN TO FAIL…..FAIL…..

THANK YOU VERY MUCHTHANK YOU VERY MUCH

IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE SPEAKING IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE SPEAKING WITH YOU REMEMBER ALWAYS WITH YOU REMEMBER ALWAYS

THINK THINK

“ “SUNSHINE”SUNSHINE”