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View this email in your browser Your monthly newsletter with predictive analytics insights, tips, and industry news. We hope that you and your loved ones are staying safe and healthy during these unsettling times. While the Covid-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc, big questions loom over the marketplace. We have the knowledge and data that you need to make the right decisions for your business. This month, we're focusing on Electric Vehicles (EV's) including the expanding charging infrastructure, how to deal with consumers' range anxiety, battery reliability, and parts costs. Need a bit of inspiration for your business? Read on to get relevant, data-driven industry insights and then contact us to discuss your business goals. Insight #1: EV's Predicted to Pass ICE Sales by 2030 In a recent report published by Boston Consulting Group, electric vehicle (EV) sales are at 8% globally and expected to account for one-third of sales by 2025. EV sales are also expected to pass Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle sales by 2030. A new forecast for EV's shows explosive growth in new sales, particularly in China. Credit: Bloomberg NEF On January 27, 2020, Automotive News reports that new and traditional automakers have over 100 electric models in the pipeline today and more are emerging. Conclusion: The stage is set for rapidly increasing EV sales and development as countries like the UK have banned petrol and diesel vehicles by the next decade. The automotive industry is therefore tasked with ensuring customers accept, adopt, and even begin to prefer electric vehicles. Insight #2: Addressing EV Consumer Concerns The maximum range (per charge) continues to improve as demand for EV's increases each year. Published estimates on the Tesla Model S indicate the longest range of 370 miles with the next generation Tesla Roadster boasting 620-mile capability. In comparison, the Chevrolet Bolt achieves a range of 259 miles and the 2020 Nissan Leaf reports a range of 226 miles - more than double the range of its 2017 predecessor. Robots at the Tesla factory in Fremont, California assembling electric cars. Credit: Tesla Motors In The News: Just recently, GM announced its all-new modular platform and Ultium batteries destined for all future models and offering a range of 400 miles. These engineering advancements are critical steps in getting consumers over the range-anxiety hump. EV consumer concerns are not limited to range - they want to know "What will the battery cost to replace, and how long will it last?" With potentially high out- of-pocket expenses for high-powered batteries, consumers as well as manufacturers are now considering how they will set up warranty coverage. Conclusion: Overall, the expectation is that future EV's will require fewer repairs. The type of repairs and timing will determine who pays and how much. A Deeper Look: At We Predict, we’ve created the industry’s largest study of predictive and actual service incidents, incorporating tens of millions of vehicles and billions of service events over the past 10 years. We call this study " Deepview" and it’s the first data-driven comparative benchmarking of its kind, providing an eye-opening view of what’s happening with components today and in the future. For each model year, here are the projected repairs service incidents per 1000 vehicles over the first 3 years of use. Credit: Deepview® by WePredict Analysis: The latest Deepview study confirms that all-EVs average lower repairs (811/1000) compared to gas models (841/1000). However, from the table below, you see that the results are still a bit mixed, with some EV’s performing better than average in their segment on repairs over the first three years, while others have more repairs than their competitors. Out of 8 all-electric models in 2019, five of the eight are projected to have fewer repairs overall than the average for the competitive segment. 3 of the 4 European all- electric models are projected to have higher repairs than the segment average *Overall projected service incidents per 1000 vehicles. “Better” corresponds to a lower expected frequency of repairs; “Worse” corresponds to a higher expected frequency of repairs than for the segment average. Credit: Deepview® by WePredict Analysis: Electrical repairs are projected to increase on 2019 models on all models, rising above the 400 per 1000 mark for EVs. All-EV models tend to have higher Electrical repair rates than gas-powered models, experiencing an increase of over 100 repairs per 1000 higher. Within Electrical, Battery repairs are projected to rise 70% on 2019 and 2020 models compared to rates seen on 2014-2018 models. And as models age beyond the first 3 years, battery repairs on EVs increase six-fold by year 10. A look at service incidents for all-EV models versus Gas models. Credit: Deepview® by WePredict Conclusion: With rising electrical and battery repairs, this is important to tackle in order to achieve consumer confidence in EVs. This is especially true for incidents that happen outside of the normal warranty period. Manufacturers, suppliers, and repair facilities need to pay close attention to rising rates and address concerns before they multiply. Having a wider view of field performance through Deepview can enable manufacturers to address these areas in their product development and customer care practices. Insight #3: Increasing Growth for EV Charging With range expanding, the next obstacle for EV adoption is the ability to re- charge. According to a 2016 EV consumer study by McKinsey, charging stations were the 3rd biggest barrier as buyers considered an EV in China, Germany and the U.S. Fast-charging stations for EV's use a high-voltage DC charge (instead of a slow AC charge) to cut vehicle charge times from hours down to as little as 20 minutes. Credit: IHS Automotive Analysis: Increasingly, businesses and public parking lots are offering preferred parking options and prime locations for EV recharging. In the case of businesses, many have free charging facilities for employees, while public lots charge a fee. There are several options under development, from wireless charging along highways to streetlight charging stations for those in apartment buildings with no off-street parking, to separate fast-charging stations. As most individual EVs remain stationary for 8-12 hours at night, home- charging can be the most economical solution due to lower residential rates. But depending on the individual’s typical commute, lifestyle and housing situation, recharging at work or along the way may also be necessary. Conclusion: Many automakers, suppliers and utility companies, recognizing the importance of developing a stable, reliable infrastructure, have invested in charging start-ups and solutions. Currently, time to charge is long compared to gas-powered fill-ups, with several models achieving 80% charge after 45 minutes. Shortening the time to charge along with increasing the charging options will make the EV a more viable option. Get Data Insights For Your Organization Now that you've seen the benefit of our knowledge and data, we would love the opportunity to discuss how Deepview can help your business. Copyright © 2020 We Predict, All rights reserved. Get Your Free Consultation with WePredict
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