200
www.icis.com 1 ICIS Committee Sessions at APIC 2019
www.icis.com 1
ICIS Committee Sessions at APIC 2019
www.icis.com 2
The Petrochemical Intermediates Conundrum
Amber Liu, Head of Asia Petchem Analytics
ICIS Product & Analytics
APIC 2019, Taipei
www.icis.com 3www.icis.com 3
Global olefin supply and demand review
China ongoing project development across Ethylene & Propylene value chains
India developments
AGENDA
www.icis.com 4
Global olefin supply & demand review
www.icis.com 5
Global Ethylene Supply & Demand
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
Ethylene consumption in 2018 is estimated at 161 million
tonnes
Asia accounts for around 40% of global supply and
consumption
-
10
20
30
40
50
NORTHAMERICA
SOUTH &CENTRALAMERICA
EUROPE FORMERUSSR
AFRICA MIDDLEEAST
NORTHEAST ASIA
ASIA ANDPACIFIC
Ethylene Production and Consumption by Region 2018
Production Consumption
LDPE, 12%
LLDPE, 20%
HDPE, 28%
ETHYLENE OXIDE, 15%
EDC, 10%
ETHYLBENZENE, 6%
Ethylene Consumption by Derivatives 2018
LDPE LLDPE HDPE
ETHYLENE OXIDE EDC ETHYLBENZENE
ACETALDEHYDE ETHANOL VINYL ACETATE M.
EVA COPOLYMERS LINEAR OLEFINS EPDM
BUTENE-1 ETHYL ACETATE PROPYLENE
METHYL METHACRYLATES ETHYLENE MISCELLANEOUS
www.icis.com 6Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
Olefin industry, primarily ethylene,
entering a period of capacity
investment
This follows from recent years of
increasing global operating rates,
which peaked around 2017
Despite steady demand growth, there
are increasing concerns of
oversupplies of ethylene
Ethylene Supply & Demand: Ethylene demand is projected to be robust, industry is currently in a period of investment in olefin capacity
www.icis.com 7Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database“OTHERS” includes South & Central Americas, FUSSR & Africa
Ethylene Supply & Demand: Splitting out developments by region shows “waves” of investments
www.icis.com 8
Global Propylene Supply & Demand
Propylene consumption in 2018 is estimated at 109.0
million tonnes
Asia accounted for around 55% of global propylene
consumption in 2018Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
NORTHAMERICA
SOUTH &CENTRALAMERICA
EUROPE FORMERUSSR
AFRICA MIDDLEEAST
NORTHEAST ASIA
ASIA ANDPACIFIC
Propylene Production and Consumption by Region 2018
Production Consumption
POLYPROPYLENE, 67%
ACRYLONITRILE, 6%
ISOPROPANOL, 1%
BUTYRALDEHYDE, 6%
PROPYLENE OXIDE, 7%
Propylene Consumption by Derivatives 2018
POLYPROPYLENE ACRYLONITRILE
CUMENE ISOPROPANOL
BUTYRALDEHYDE PROPYLENE OXIDE
OLIGOMERS ACRYLIC ACID
EPDM 1,4-BUTANEDIOL
PROPYLENE MISCELLANEOUS
www.icis.com 9Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database“OTHERS” includes South & Central Americas, FUSSR & Africa
Propylene Supply & Demand: Propylene operating rates also forecast to dip through same period; investments centred on Asia
www.icis.com 10
China ongoing project development across Ethylene & Propylene value chains
www.icis.com 11
China Ethylene Derivatives Demand Outlook:
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Most China C2 derivatives poised for demand growth rates over 3% except LDPE at 2.8%. EVA has the highest
demand growth at 15.6% among all C2 derivatives followed by EPDM at 9.3%, HDPE at 6.3% and MEG at 4.8%.
SM
HDPE
LLDPE
LDPE
EVA
VAM EPDM0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%
China's C2 Derivatives Demand and Growth
DEMAND CAGR (2018-2024)
Ch
ina's
dem
an
d in
2024 (
'000 t
on
nes)
PVC
MEG
SM
HDPELLDPE
LDPEEVA
VAM EPDM0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%
China's C2 Derivatives Demand and Growth
DEMAND CAGR (2018-2024)
Ch
ina's
dem
an
d in
2024 (
'000 t
on
nes)
www.icis.com 12Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Olefin Developments in China: Large focus on increasing ethylene capacities to enable increasing self sufficiency with CAGR at over 11% during 2018-2024
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
MM
TPA
China Ethylene Capacity by Route
Steam-cracking CTO MTO Olefins-conversion Other
www.icis.com 13
China Propylene Derivatives Demand Outlook:
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Most China C3 derivatives keep a moderate demand growth rates at 4-6%. Phenol has the highest demand
growth among all C3 derivatives at 7%. Demand growth for PP, Polyols and PO is at 5-5.6% and 2-EH, NBA, AA
downstream & IBA at 4-4.6%.
BUTYRALDEHYDEPET POL
PO PhenolACN2-EH NBA
AA
SAP
IPA IBA0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
China's C3 Derivatives Demand and Growth
DEMAND CAGR (2018-2024)
Ch
ina's
dem
an
d in
2024 (
'000 t
on
nes)PP
BUTYRALDEHYDE
PET POL
PO
Phenol
ACN 2-EH
NBA
AA
SAPIPA
IBA
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
China's C3 Derivatives Demand and Growth
DEMAND CAGR (2018-2024)
Ch
ina's
dem
an
d in
2024 (
'000 t
on
nes)
www.icis.com 14Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
Propylene Production Routes: Steam-cracking a key route for new propylene capacities, on-purpose propylene additions also continue
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
MM
TPA
China Propylene Capacity by Route
Steam-cracking Refinery-gas Propane CTO MTO Olefins-conversion Metathesis Other
www.icis.com 15
Projects considered firm, totalling nearly 13 million tonnes from crackers of additional ethylene capacity between 2019
and 2023
Total ethylene capacity ex-steam-cracking in China in 2018 was 25.3 million tonnes, with 2.0 million tonnes being
between 2012 and 2017
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Olefin Developments in China: Increased self sufficiency to be achieved through steam-cracking, largely naphtha based
www.icis.com 16Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Olefin Developments in China: Increased self sufficiency to be achieved through steam-cracking, largely naphtha based
Company Location Propylene (kt/a) Feedstock Derivatives S/u date
Sinopec Zhongke Ref & PC Zhanjiang, Guangdong 430 Naphtha 350kt PP 1Q20
Zhejiang PC (Phase 1) Zhoushan, Zhejiang 700 Naphtha 450kt PP, 250kt Acetone, 400kt Phenol, 260kt ACN 4Q19
Hengli PC Dalian, Liaoning 550Naphtha, ethane,
butane450kt PP 1H20
Wanhua Chemical Yantai, Shandong 400 LPG 300kt PP, 300kt PO 2H20
Sinopec Sabic Tianjin PC Tianjin 150 Naphtha, ethane 3Q20
Sinochem Quanzhou PC Quanzhou, Fujian 500 Naphtha 350kt PP, 260 ACN, 200PO 4Q20
Liaoning Bora PC Panjin, Liaoning 600 Naphtha 400kt PP 2020
Sinopec-SK Wuhan PC Wuhan, Hubei 150 Naphtha 300kt PP 2020
Fujian Gulei PC Zhangzhou, Fujian 490 Naphtha 350kt PP, 200kt PO 1H21
Shenghong Ref & Chem Jiangsu, Lianyungang 650 Naphtha 270kt ACN, 180kt AA ester, 240kt SAP 2022
Petrochina/PDVSA Jieyang, Guangdong 600 Naphtha 600kt PP, 130kt ACN 2023
Sinopec Hainan PC Yangpu, Hainan 500 Naphtha 250kt PP End-2023
Huajin Aramco PC Panjin, Liaoning 700 Naphtha300kt PP, 190kt Acetone, 310kt Phenol, 260kt
ACN, 200kt PO2024
www.icis.com 17
Majority of projects speculative, units highlighted in proceeding
25% import tariffs have significant effect on economics
Olefin Developments in China: New focus on ethane cracking
CompanyEthane
supplierEthylene (kt/a) Derivatives Comments
Dalian Huikun - 2000 Application submitted to CDRC, undergoing basic engineering design work
Eversun Holdings AEC 1500 900kt PE Framework agreement with AEC
Ganergy Group AEC 2000 Framework agreement with AEC, MoU signed with KBR
Guangxi Investment - 1000 300kt LLDPE, 300kt HDPE Approval process ongoing
Nanshan Group AEC 2000 Fully integrated to PE & MEG Framework agreement with AEC, application submitted to CRDC
Qingdao Hengyuan Chemical AEC 1500 Framework agreement with AEC, undergoing feasibility study
Satellite PetrochemicalOrbit
(ETP & Satellite)2500 (2x1250)
500kt LLDPE,
500kt EG, 500kt styrene
Construction began end-2018
Due on-stream 2021 and 2023
Signed ethane supply deal with ETP
SP Chemical INEOS 650320kt styrene, 320kt EDC, 500kt
VCM
Due on-stream 2019
Ethane/LPG feedstock
Long term ethane supply deal involves construction of VLEC
Tianjin Bohua - 1000 Timeline 5yrs+
Yutime Petroleum - 2600 Timeline 5yrs+
Petrochina Tarim Oilfield Domestic 600 2x300 kt HDPE/ LLDPE swing Expected on-stream 2023
Ningbo Huatai Wealthy Polymer Domestic 600200kt LLDPE, 200kt HDPE, 400 kt
PP, 300kt styrene
Under construction, start-up due 2020
Feedstock ethane 27%, propane 73%
Feed source is refinery gas and merchant propane
www.icis.com 18Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Olefin Developments in China:CTO projects come back after a strict environmental protection approval. Few MTO would be on-line regarding
relatively poor economy.
Most CTO/MTO units are integrated with polyolefins.
Company Location Technology Start-up year Ethylene (kt/a) Ethylene derivatives Propylene (kt/a)Propylene
derivatives
ZHONG AN UNITED COAL CHEMICAL CO HUAINAN,ANHUI CTO Jul, 2019 350 350kt LLDPE 350 350kt PP
QINGHAI DAMEI COAL INDUSTRY XINING,QINGHAI CTO Sep, 2019 300 300kt LLDPE 300 400kt PP
NINGXIA BAOFENG ENERGY YINCHUAN,NINGXIA CTO H2, 2019 300 300kt LLDPE 300 300kt PP
SHANXI COKING COAL GROUP HONGDONG,SHANXI CTO 2020 300 300kt LLDPE 300 300kt PP
SHAANXI YANCHANG COAL YULIN EN. AND
CH.JINGBIAN,SHAANXI CTO 2021 300 150kt EVA, 150kt LDPE 300 300kt PP
SHENHUA BAOTOU COAL CHEM. INDUSTRY BAOTOU,INNER MONGOLIA CTO 2021 300 350kt LLDPE 300 400kt PP
SINOPEC GUIZHOU ZHIJIN ZHIJIN,GUIZHOU CTO 2021 300 300kt LLDPE 300 400kt PP
HEILONGJIANG LONGTAI COAL CHEMICAL SHUANGYASHAN,HEILONGJIANG CTO 2021 280 200kt LLDPE, 100kt EVA 320 300kt PP
PINGLIANG HUAHONG HUIJIN COAL
CHEMICALPINGLIANG,GANSU CTO 2022 350 200kt LLDPE 350 300kt PP
QINGHAI MINING CO GOLMUD,QINGHAI CTO 2022 300 300 400kt PP
JIUTAI ENERGY GROUP ORDOS CITY,INNER MONGOLIA MTO May, 2019 250 250kt LLDPE 350 350kt PP
NANJING CHENGZHI CLEAN ENERGY NANJING,JIANGSU MTO July, 2019 240 360
JILIN CONNELL CHEMICAL JILIN,JILIN MTO H2, 2019 135 165
LIAOCHENG MEIWU NEW MATERIALS
TECHCORPLIAOCHENG,SHANDONG MTO H2, 2019 120 170
TIANJIN BOHAI CHEM. GROUP TIANJIN,TIANJIN MTO 2020 300 300kt LLDPE, 450kt SM 300 300kt PP
DAQING LIANYI PETROCHEMICAL DAQING,HEILONGJIANGOlefins
conversion/FCC2020 400 400kt LLDPE 350 350kt PP
www.icis.com 19Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Olefin Developments in China: Enthusiasm for PDH obviously dropped from 2018 with narrowed margin on higher feedstock cost.
Company Location Feedstock Start-up year Propylene (kt/a) Propylene derivatives
DONGGUAN GRAND RESOURCE SCIENCE AND TECH DONGGUAN,GUANGZHOU Propane Aug, 2019 600 PP
FUJIAN MEIDE PC FUZHOU,FUJIAN Propane end 2019 660 PP
HENGLI PC CHANGXING ISLAND,LIAONING Propane 2019 450 integrated with crackers
ZHEJIANG SATELL. ENERGY CO. LTD. PINGHU,ZHEJIANG Propane 2019 450 PP
ZHEJIANG PETROCHEMICAL ZHOUSHAN,ZHEJIANG Propane H1, 2020 600 integrated with crackers
ORIENTAL ENERGY NINGBO,ZHEJIANG Propane 2020 660 PP
JINNENG SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY QINGDAO,SHANDONG Propane 2021 900 PP, ACN
www.icis.com 20
Import Dependency
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Import dependency for C2 derivatives (except PVC) expected to around 29.8 million tonnes in 2024, slightly up
from 28.0 million tonnes in 2018.
LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE and MEG are expected to remain import dependent at over 40%
52%
41%
48%
57%
1%
28%
56%56%
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
LDPE LLDPE HDPE MEG PVC SM EVA EPDM
China's C2 Derivatives import dependecy (2018)
Domestic Import % import dependecy
Vo
lum
e (
'100
0 to
nnes
)
48%
40%43%
51%
-10%
11%
27%42%
-4000
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
24000
28000
LDPE LLDPE HDPE MEG PVC SM EVA EPDM
China's C2 Derivatives import dependecy (2024)
Domestic Import % import dependecy
Vo
lum
e (
'100
0 to
nnes
)
www.icis.com 21
Import Dependency
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Import dependency for most C3 derivatives expected to around 4.3 million tonnes in 2024, continuously down from
6.2 million tonnes in 2018.
SAP and IBA are expected to remain import dependent at around 40%
7%
6%18%
0%
-4%
39%
-2%
37%7% 16% 7%
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
China's C3 Derivatives import dependecy (2024)
Domestic Import % import dependecy
Vo
lum
e (
'10
00
to
nn
es)
16%
16%2%
0%
-10%
34%1%
45%9% 11% 16%
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
China's C3 Derivatives import dependecy (2018)
Domestic Import % import dependecy
Vo
lum
e (
'10
00
to
nn
es)
www.icis.com 22
India development
www.icis.com 23
India Ethylene Derivatives Demand Outlook
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
All C2 derivatives poised for demand growth rates over 5% except VAM. EVA has the highest demand among all
C2 derivatives followed by LLDPE HDPE and PVC. Other derivatives like Styrene, LLDPE and MEG also offer
moderate demand volumes and stable growth outlook.
PVC
LLDPE
HDPE
MEG
SM
LDPE
EVAVAM EPDM
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
India's C2 Derivatives Demand and Growth
DEMAND CAGR (2018-2024)
Ind
ia's
dem
an
d in
2024 (
'000 t
on
nes)
www.icis.com 24Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Polypropylene clearly stands out amongst C3 derivatives dwarfing demand for other derivatives. However, other C3
derivatives like Acrylic Acid Esters, SAP and Oxo-Alcohols (NBA and 2-EH) exhibit moderate demand volumes and
stable growth rates in excess of 7%.
India Propylene Derivatives Demand Outlook:
PHENOL
PET POLAA ESTER
BUTYRALDEHYDEACN NBA
POIPA
2-EH
IBA SAP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
India's C3 Derivatives Demand and Growth
DEMAND CAGR (2018-2024)
Ind
ia's
dem
an
d in
2024 (
'000 t
on
nes)PP
PHENOL
PET POL
AA ESTER
BUTYRALDEHYDE
ACN
NBAPO
IPA
2-EH
IBA
SAP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
India's C3 Derivatives Demand and Growth
DEMAND CAGR (2018-2024)
Ind
ia's
dem
an
d in
2024 (
'000 t
on
nes)
www.icis.com 25
Majority of propylene being paired with new investments in PP
Indian Olefin Developments: Significant growth in propylene coming through refinery linked investments
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
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www.icis.com 26
India Ongoing Investments- Ethylene & C2 Derivatives
Majority of firm investments in C2 derivatives are towards PE with 2.37 million tons of Ethylene capacity additions by
2024
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Company Location Technology Ethylene (kt/a) Start-up Year Derivatives
IOCL PANIPAT Steam-cracking +90 2021 MEG
HMEL PHULOKHARI Steam-Cracking/Refinery Gas 1200 2021 HDPE/LLDPE/LinearOlefins/Butene-1
IOCL PARADEEP Refinery Gas 200 2022 MEG
BPCL COCHIN Refinery Gas 75 2023 MEG
HPCL PACHPADRA Steam-Cracking/Refinery Gas 897 2023/2024 HDPE/LLDPE/Butene-1
RRPL RATNAGIRI Steam-Cracking >5000 LLDPE/HDPE/LDPE/MEG/PVC/Butene-1/EPDM
Nayara VADINAR Steam-Cracking 900 HDPE/LLDPE/LDPE/EVA
Kakinada AVNAGARAM Steam-Cracking 1000 HDPE/LLDPE/Butene-1
HALDIA HALDIA Steam-Cracking 770 (+70) HDPE/Butene-1
www.icis.com 27
India Ongoing Investments- Propylene & C3 Derivatives
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Around 2.5 MT of Propylene capacity additions by 2024, majority of investments are towards PP. Phenol/Acetone, Polyols
are some other firm investments, however India is expected to remain import dependent for all C3 derivatives
Company Location Route Propylene (kt/a) Start-up Year Derivatives
IOCL KOYALI FCC 400 2023 PP
IOCL PANIPAT Steam-cracking +40 2021
IOCL PARADEEP FCC 700 2019 PP
HPCL PACHPADRA Steam-cracking/FCC 965 2023/2024 PP
HMEL PHULO KHARI SteamCracker/FCC 750 2021 PP
BPCL MUMBAI FCC 450 2023 PP
www.icis.com 28
Import Dependency
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Import dependency for C2 derivatives expected to be around 5.2 million tonnes in 2024 from under 4 million tonnes
in 2018. Most derivatives are expected to have import dependency at 23-41%.
Styrene and EPDM are expected to remain almost entirely import dependent.
22%
5%
12%
19%
57%
100%
100% 100%0
2000
4000
6000
LDPE LLDPE HDPE MEG PVC SM EVA EPDM
India's C2 Derivatives import dependecy (2018)
Domestic Import % import dependecy
Volu
me (
'1000 t
on
nes)
41%
34%23%
35%
54%
100%
73%100%
0
2000
4000
6000
LDPE LLDPE HDPE MEG PVC SM EVA EPDM
India's C2 Derivatives import dependecy (2024)
Domestic Import % import dependecy
Volu
me (
'1000 t
on
nes)
www.icis.com 29
Import Dependency
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
Import dependency for C3 derivatives expected to exceed 3 million tonnes by 2024 from 1.4 million tonnes in 2018.
Import dependency for most derivatives is over ~60%, with exception of Phenol, Isopropanol and NBA. EPDM and SAP
are entirely dependent on imports.
3%
100% 64% 0% 98% 0%78%
96% 56% 71%68%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
India's C3 Derivatives import dependecy (2018)
Domestic Import % import dependecy
Vo
lum
e (
'10
00
to
nn
es)
28%
32% 17% 0% 26% 5%51% 82% 8% 43%
6%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
India's C3 Derivatives import dependecy (2024)
Domestic Import % import dependecy
Vo
lum
e (
'10
00
to
nn
es)
www.icis.com 30
Conclusions
Demand growth for olefins remains relatively strong, which is a key reason we are continuing to see investment decisions being made
In a period of capacity investment and expect to see reduced operating rates over next few years – likely to be pressures on older, non-integrated/standalone steam crackers
Olefin demand continues to be centred around Asia, with capacity investments following; increased self-sufficiency for a number of governments is a key driver
Ethane crackers attract investment in China regarding high import dependency on ethylene derivatives but which would depend on the negotiation between China and US
China ethylene derivatives would still rely on import to some extent but propylene derivatives would mostly reach self-sufficient and must export to other regions
Sheer dominance of PE & PP investments in India cannot be denied
www.icis.com 31
Polymer Business Strategies in the Era of Low Profitability: Adaptability is the Key
17 May 2019
Felita Widjaja
Senior Editor
ICIS Editorial
APIC 2019 – Taipei, Taiwan
www.icis.com 32www.icis.com 32
Agenda
Demand-supply imbalance amid global expansions
Geo-political developments becoming more important
Rising environmental concerns to shift market patterns
Impact and outlook 2019: Adaptability is key
www.icis.com 33
Demand-supply imbalance amid global expansions
www.icis.com 34
Global PE expansion 2017-2020
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 35
US shale gas projects boost PE expansions
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS
Additional US ethylene capacity from 2017 through 2019 = 10.5m tonnes/yearAdditional US PE capacity from 2017 through 2019 = 6.5m tonnes/year
www.icis.com 36
Concentrated PE PP expansions in SE Asia and Korea
Source：ICISAdditional PE & PP capacity from 2017 through 2019 = 3.1m tonnes/year
www.icis.com 37
China PE PP expansions – inching towards PP self sufficiency
Source：ICISPE & PP expansion expected in 2019 = 5.4m tonnes and 3.8m tonnes/year respectively
www.icis.com 38
Geo-political developments becoming more important
www.icis.com 39
A look back on escalating US-China trade tensions
$34bn
$34bn
25% tariffs
$16bn
$16bn
6 July 2018 23 August
$200bn
$60bn
10% tariffs, 25% by January
24 September
$267bn Pending
Includes $8.8bn worth of chemicals and polymers
5% & 10% tariffs
24 February 2019
Trump extends 1
March tariff deadline
To be continued..2 December
90-day trucetill 1 March
90-day truce China temporarily lower
tariffs on US autos
3rd round of tariffs
2nd round of tariffs
1st round of tariffs
October - November January-February
Trade talks resume
Trade talks resume
$110bn
Product Current Tariff (%)
Total China imports in 2017 (million tonnes)
Estimated share of US materialon China imports in 2017
LDPE 6.5 2.4 7%
HDPE 31.5 6.4 5%
LLDPE 31.5 3.3 5%
PP 31.5 4.7 3% Total US Tariffs: $250bn
Total Chinese Tariffs: $110bnSource: ICIS Supply and demand database
Tariffs increase to
25% on 10 May
5 May 2019
$325bn Pending
www.icis.com 40
Tariff impact on US and China Trade
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Round 2 (Aug 2018) Round 3 (Sep 2018)
Exports under tariff based on 2017 trade flows
US exports impacted China exports impacted
$ millions
$2.0bn $2.2bn
$8.8bn
$13.2bn
Source: American Chemistry Council, US International Trade Commission
Impact on China’s finished plastic exports to US
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
$ millions
Round 2 Round 3
The US imported $39bn of finished plastics products from global sources in 2017
China’s combined total of $7bn made up around 30% of total US imports of the particular products but merely 18% of total imports
$1.4bn
$5.6bn
An estimated 2.6m tonnes of annual Chinese plastic products demand might be lost as a result of these tariffs
67% of this demand is for products made from polyolefins
www.icis.com 41
Reduced PE exports from the US to China; others filled the gap
Source: ICIS Supply and demand database
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
LLDPE imports to China 2016-2018 (tonnes)
SINGAPORE SAUDI ARABIA THAILAND UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
SOUTH KOREA UNITED STATES IRAN QATAR
INDIA OTHERS
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
HDPE imports to China 2016-2018 (tonnes)
SAUDI ARABIA IRAN UNITED ARAB EMIRATESSOUTH KOREA THAILAND TAIWAN, PROVINCE OF CHINAUNITED STATES KUWAIT QATAROTHERS
www.icis.com 42
US PE exports diverted away from China to SE Asia
69,749
28,424
60,496147,989
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jul 2018 * Oct 2018 *
US polyethylene exports –Jul vs Oct 2018 (%)
NORTH AMERICA SOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA EUROPE
EASTERN EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST
CHINA REST OF ASIA
(41,325)
38,035
16,160
14,757
10,299
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Changes in US PE exports to Asia* –Jul vs Oct 2018
CHINA VIETNAM MALAYSIA SINGAPORE INDONESIA
Source: ICIS Supply and demand database(*) Volumes in tonnes
www.icis.com 43
The Chinese government’s response so far
Increase in export tax refund rates for plastics and plastic products, tied to VAT rate, to 16% on 1 November 2018 (13% as of 1 April 2019)
Increase competitiveness of Chinese polyolefin exports
Reduce the value-added tax (VAT) for the manufacturing sector effective 1 April 2019
Increase margin for local plastic manufacturers
Product Export Rebate
LDPE 16 13% (as of April)
HDPE 16 13% (as of April)
LLDPE 16 13% (as of April)
Product Export Rebate
PP homopolymers 16% 13% (as of April)
PP copolymers 9% (no change)
Other PP grades 13% (no change)
Import price Import cost* on 16% VAT
Import cost* on 13% VAT
Selling price in yuan-based import market
Margin* on 16% VAT
Margin* on 13% VAT
$1,000 CNY8,489 CNY8,273 CNY8,600 CNY111 CNY327
* The yuan-denominated import cost takes into account an exchange rate of CNY6.75 to $1; a 6.5% import duty and assumed port fees of CNY150/tonne; while margin is computed as selling price less import cost.
Source: China Finance Department
www.icis.com 44
Iran sanctions – Effect on China imports likely limited
0.00
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00
300,000.00
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Iranian PE import volume in China
LDPE LLDPE HDPE
Grade 2017 2018 Growth (%)
LDPE 604,802 584,880 -3.3
LLDPE 165,429 214,876 29.9
HDPE 1,197,220 1,085,344 -9.3
Total 1,967,451 1,885,100 -4.2
US sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemical products were re-imposed on 5 November but China will likely continue to import a significant PE volume from Iran
Knee-jerk reaction after sanctions were re-imposed
Iranian PE import volume to China (‘000 tonnes)
Source: ICIS Supply and demand database
www.icis.com 45
Rising environmental concerns to shift market patterns
www.icis.com 46
China's ban on scrap imports trigger recycling movements
In January 2018, China introduced a ban on plastic wasteimports amid stricter environmental controls
Recycled materials import volume reduced by almost 100%
Small-operation Chinese plastics recyclers relocated to southeast Asia
Recycled resins not a big part of manufacturing process across Asia
2017 2018
HDPE LLDPE PP HDPE LLDPE PP
Asia 4.4 4.0 1.5 4.1 3.8 1.5
Europe 6.2 8.3 3.5 6.6 9 3.7
North America 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.3 4.2Source: ICIS Supply and demand database
Global scenario: % volume of production using recycled resins
Supply
• Collection/sorting infrastructures remain an issue for other polymers beside PET
• Chemical recycling a long term solution
• Destinations of plastic waste volumes shifting across the globe yet to settle
Demand
• Demand expected to grow, driven by legislation in some markets
• Difficult to estimate the growth rate
• Initiatives by some industry players and brand owners to affect demand
• Non-recyclable polymers to be hardest hit
Recycling supply demand dynamics
www.icis.com 47Copyright © 2015 ICIS – Private & Confidential
Drivers for recovery and recycling of plastics
Economics• Lower cost replacement for virgin feedstock
Regulation
• Legislation is more relevant to more mature European region
• Other forms of regulations: bans, taxes, restrictions
Pledges
• Commitments made by brands to use recycled content, switch to recyclable materials or stop the use of certain materials
• Formation of movements such as Alliance to End Plastic Waste and New Plastics Economy
Sustainability
• Conscious move towards circular economy, following focus on greenhouse gases and carbon footprint
www.icis.com 48Copyright © 2015 ICIS – Private & Confidential
Spotlight on plastic waste – focus on cleanup and elimination
Alliance to End Plastic Waste (AEPW)
Includes nearly 30 companies across the value chain
Initial funding commitment of $1bn, goal of $1.5bn over 5 years
To advance solutions to eliminate plastic waste in the environment, especially in the ocean
New Plastics Economy
Eliminate all problematic and unnecessary plastic items
Innovate to ensure plastics are reusable
Circulate all plastic items within the economy and out of the environment
Investment in mechanical, chemical recycling technologies, infrastructure
Capture plastic waste before it reaches the ocean
Cost of doing business
www.icis.com 49Copyright © 2015 ICIS – Private & Confidential
World Economic Forum in Davos – Globalization 4.0
A new phase of globalization driven by shifts in technology, geopolitics, and social and environmental needs
11 companies announced that they will work towards using 100 percent reusable, recyclable or compostable packaging by 2025 or earlier
The 11 companies are responsible for an estimated six million metric tonnes of plastic packaging each year
Shift from Linear to Circular Economy
Resources from the ground
Take Products to useMakeDiscard once we are done
Waste
Keep products and materials in
use
Regenerate natural systems
Design out waste and pollution
VS
Linear economy
Circular Economy
Ellen MacArthur FoundationWorks in Education & Training, Business & Government,
Insight & Analysis, Systemic Initiatives and Communications to accelerate the transition to a circular economy
www.icis.com 50Copyright © 2015 ICIS – Private & Confidential
Not all plastics can be recycled, contamination an issue
Some plastic products are difficult to recycle and can only be recycled a limited number of times
Sorting plastics products for recycling is a huge chore, contamination a problem
Recycling schemes vary between countries and regions
(ABS, PC, PA)
Pricing Data
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www.icis.com 51
Impact and outlook 2019: Adaptability is key
www.icis.com 52
-1.7%-1.3%
1.8%
-3.6%
2.0%
0.5%
-1.9%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
04-May-2018 08-Jun-2018 13-Jul-2018 17-Aug-2018 21-Sep-2018 26-Oct-2018 30-Nov-2018 11-Jan-2019 15-Feb-2019 22-Mar-2019 26-Apr-2019
Asia LLDPE price May 2018 – April 2019 ($/Tonne) Week on week % change CFR China CFR SE Asia (dutiable)
Asia LLDPE prices under pressure on weaker sentiment after tariffs
US tariffs on Chinese exports announced in mid-June
US cargoes directed to other regions outside of China. Chinese prices find some stability in Q3
Sharp depreciation of Chinese yuan weighs heavily on import market
Prices stabilize but might remain under pressure on ample supply and lower demand following additional US tariffs
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 53
Asia HDPE prices largely supported, might waver under thin demand
-2.6%
0.8%
-2.2%
-5.4%
2.6%
1.4%
-1.1%
1.8%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
04-May-2018 08-Jun-2018 13-Jul-2018 17-Aug-2018 21-Sep-2018 26-Oct-2018 30-Nov-2018 11-Jan-2019 15-Feb-2019 22-Mar-2019 26-Apr-2019
Asia HDPE price May 2018 – April 2019 ($/Tonne) Week on week % change CFR China CFR SE Asia (dutiable)
Prices might be pressured by ample local inventories and weaker downstream demand
US tariffs on Chinese exports announced in mid-June Fears of US-China trade war and
local currencies depreciation add to bearish sentiment
Prices plunged in late 2018 on increased supply and availability of competitively priced cargoes
Source: ICIS
Tight supply expectation supported prices – shipment delays
www.icis.com 54
Asia PP hit by spot Indian cargoes but recovered on tighter supply
0.6%
-1.2%
-3.8%
-9.9%
4.0%
1.4% 1.4%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
04-May-2018 08-Jun-2018 13-Jul-2018 17-Aug-2018 21-Sep-2018 26-Oct-2018 30-Nov-2018 11-Jan-2019 15-Feb-2019 22-Mar-2019 26-Apr-2019
Asia PP Flat yarn price May 2018 – Apr 2019 ($/Tonne) Week on week % change CFR China CFR SE Asia (dutiable)
Chinese import prices slumped in Q3 amid spike in exports from India, as suppliers there seek to clear on-hand cargoes.
Start up of new PP plant and expansions in SE Asia lengthen regional supply
US tariffs on Chinese exports announced in mid-June
Prices supported by tight supply –unexpected turnarounds in Q1; uptrend might continue in Q2
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 55
Effect on gap between dutiable and non-dutiable prices
1000.0
1050.0
1100.0
1150.0
1200.0
1250.0
1300.0
06
-Jan
-20
17
10
-Feb
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
26-
May
-20
17
30
-Ju
n-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Sep
-20
17
13
-Oct
-20
17
17
-No
v-2
01
7
22
-Dec
-20
17
02
-Feb
-20
18
09
-Mar
-20
18
13
-Ap
r-2
01
8
18-
May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
31
-Au
g-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
25
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
SEA dutiable and non-dutiable LLDPE prices Jan 2017-Apr 2019
Dutiable LLDPE Non-Dutiable LLDPE
1000.0
1050.0
1100.0
1150.0
1200.0
1250.0
1300.0
1350.0
06
-Jan
-20
17
10
-Feb
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
26
-May
-20
17
30
-Ju
n-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Sep
-20
17
13
-Oct
-20
17
17
-No
v-2
01
7
22
-Dec
-20
17
02
-Feb
-20
18
09
-Mar
-20
18
13
-Ap
r-2
01
8
18
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
31
-Au
g-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
25
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
SEA dutiable and non-dutiable PP Flat Yarn prices Jan 2017-Apr 2019
Dutiable PP Yarn Non-dutiable PP Yarn
For LLDPE, price gap widened from early 2018 up to more than $100/tonne
$135As of 3 May: $5
As of 3 May: $40
$55
For PP flat yarn, price gap narrowed from early 2018 to consistently below $50/tonne
www.icis.com 56
Evolving PE trade flows as US producers redirect cargoes
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Data
www.icis.com 57
Limited shift in global PP trade flow
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Data
http://www.shangwuppt.com/
www.icis.com 58
Outlook for the polyolefins market for rest of 2019
• Bulk of new PE and PP capacities expected to come on-stream in later part of 2019• US PE startups threatens oversupply in H2 2019, more US PE could flow to SE Asia should
US-China trade war persist • Expected steady increase in China’s PP export volumes to SE Asia
• Sustainability and plastic waste are key issues in 2019 and beyond – global efforts • Upstream crude and monomer cost prices affect regional operating rates• Volatile exchange rates against a backdrop of an uncertain global macroeconomic outlook
Demand
Supply
Other factors
• Demand and general trade to slow as Eid holiday approaches in June • Some uptick expected in Q3, ahead of the year-end close• Imports dampened by relatively competitive domestic prices
• Reduction in VAT and increased export tax rebate could support Chinese demand• Slower economic growth: 5-6% growth expected for PE; 6-7% for PP • PE PP Resin demand might decline as China plastic exports to US hit by 25% tarrifs
Rest of Asia
China
www.icis.com 59
www.icis.com 60
China vs SE Asia Styrenics Capacity InvestmentTwo scenarios
Asian Petrochemical Industry Conference
May 2019, Taipei
Rhian O’Connor
Senior Analyst, ICIS Consulting & Analytics
www.icis.com 61
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China styrenics background
What is the macroeconomic background driving move to SE Asia?
Is downstream manufacturing moving?
SCENARIO 1 – Styrenics investment continues in China
SCENARIO 2 – Companies invest aggressively in SE Asia
What about styrenics recycling?
Agenda
www.icis.com 63
China styrenics background
www.icis.com 64
China styrenics background
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Styrenics capacity China
ABS EXPANDABLE PS POLYSTYRENE
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 65
China styrenics background
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
Electricals35%
Packaging20%
Construction14%
Automotive9%
Consumer6%
Other16%
NE Asia styrene demand by application, 2018
www.icis.com 66
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mill
ion
un
its
Yearly production of electricals in China
Refrigerator Washing Machine TV Air conditioners
China styrenics background
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
RefrigeratorsWashing Machines
TVsAir conditioners
CAGR 2000-17 10.7% 9.3% 9.1% 14.4%
Growth 2017 -6.5% -4.7% 18.2% 14.7%
www.icis.com 67
China styrenics background
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bal
ance
-M
illio
n t
on
nes
Cap
acit
y -
Mill
ion
to
nn
esStyrene capacity China
Styrene Net balance of styrene (RHS)
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 68
Macroeconomic background
www.icis.com 69
China - challenges
Why has China slowed its investment growth?
1) Pollution and growing focus on quality of life
2) Poor credit and need for quality growth
3) Trade wars and trade restrictions
4) Slowing global economy – lower demand for exports
5) Ageing population
6) Wage inflation
www.icis.com 70
China - challenges
Pollution, credit, trade wars
All covered at length in John Richardson’s opening presentation
Government walking a tight line between stimulating growth and other policy factors
Pollution worsens quality of life
Debt increases future systemic risks
Both force industry reorganisation and efficiency gains
Trade wars requires political concessions – but how many are possible?
www.icis.com 71
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Global Manufacturing PMIs
US Eurozone China
China - challenges
Slowing global economy
NOTE: Figures through April 2019, US = ISM, Eurozone = IHS Markit, China = Caixin
Expansion
Contraction
www.icis.com 72
China - challenges
Slowing global economy
Specific issues
Rising crude prices leading to inflation
Emerging markets currency weakness
Trade war concerns
Eurozone – Brexit and other political upheaval
US – fear of credit tightening
Japan – consumption tax hike
Global automotive industry weakness – new emissions standards
www.icis.com 73
China - challenges
Slowing global economy
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
No
of
un
its
ind
exed
(Ja
n 1
8=1
00
)
Chinese exports of electricals and electronics
Air conditioners Tablets Refrigerators Mobile phones
www.icis.com 74
China - challenges
Ageing population
China at risk of being old before it is rich
www.icis.com 75
China - challenges
Ageing population
Growth implications – low growth population leads to lower growth in consumption
Further demand implications – older people consume less
Cost implications – lower working population ups wage costs
No change since end of one-child policy
2018 – 10.94 per thousand - lowest in history of People’s Republic
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www.icis.com 76
China - challenges
Growing wages
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Malaysia China Thailand Indonesia Vietnam India
$/m
on
thAverage income (2017)
Source: World Data. Uses Atlas method of adjusting last official data
www.icis.com 77
China - challenges
Is one-belt, one-road the solution?
www.icis.com 78
China - challenges
Is one-belt, one-road the solution?
Shifting lower-value manufacturing to neighbouring, poorer countries
Getting hold of cheap and plentiful supplies of oil and gas
Building agriculture and resources links
Developing consumer markets
BUT – kick-back now with some countries disliking terms
Sri Lanka and Kenya handed assets back to China as part of debt resettlement
African nations complain all infrastructure work goes to Chinese companies
Pakistan plans to renegotiate terms
www.icis.com 79
Is downstream manufacturing moving?
www.icis.com 80
Is downstream manufacturing moving?
Pressures lead to some businesses moving overseas
Depends on complexity of production process
Labour intensive businesses moved first
Polluting businesses pushed abroad
China trying to encourage hi-tech industry to stay
www.icis.com 81
Is downstream manufacturing moving?
Example – Footwear to Vietnam
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Adidas production of footwear by country
China Vietnam Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nike production of footwear by country
China Vietnam Other
Source: Company filings
www.icis.com 82
Is downstream manufacturing moving?
Other industries
Other hi-tech industries also moving
Electronics
Samsung (South Korea) largest foreign investor in Vietnam (quarter of counties export revenue)
Pegatron Corp (Taipei) (maker of iPhones) starts operating in Indonesia
Jabil Circuit (St Petersburg) prepared to move out of China. Cites Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, E Europe or Mexico
Pharmaceuticals
Sanofi invests $75m in Vietnamese facilities
www.icis.com 83
Is downstream manufacturing moving?
Risks to SE Asia
Costs are rising here too
Ageing population
Could Cambodia and Laos be future winners?
www.icis.com 84
Is downstream manufacturing moving?
Risks to SE Asia
Historically manufacturing here not always smooth
e.g. Autos still only 10% of China volume
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tho
usa
nd
un
its
Production volume of passenger cars SE Asia
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Philippines
www.icis.com 85
Is downstream manufacturing moving?
Risks to SE Asia
Still a long way behind China and unlikely to ever catch up
www.icis.com 86
ONE – Styrenics investment in China
www.icis.com 87
ONE – Styrenics investment in China
What would drive this?
Chinese investment in manufacturing in China
Multinationals working in partnership with Chinese firms
Export freedom to US etc.
Lower costs
Lower controls on pollution, credit
www.icis.com 88
ONE – Styrenics investment in China
Planned capacity in China
Some near-term capacity increases for styrene derivatives
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2019 2020 2021
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es/y
ear
New styrenics derivatives capacity in China
ABS EPS PS SBR SBL
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 89
ONE – Styrenics investment in China
Planned capacity in China
And lots of “projects” waiting in the wings
EPS profitability?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es/y
ear
Potential styrenics projects in China
ABS EPS PS SBR SBL
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 90
ONE – Styrenics investment in China
Impact of new PS and ABS capacity on China balance
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
Thousand tonnes ABS PS
Capacity under construction 250 610
Potential future construction 2050 760
Total consumption 2018 5200 3420
Incremental consumption 2018-2022 1120 240
Current net imports 2018 1934 1407
www.icis.com 91
ONE – Styrenics investment in China
What about styrene itself?
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
Styrene: one of four key products Chinese government pushing to make self-sufficient
We believe China will still be an importer
New plants slow to start, often technical issues
Smaller, older plants likely to close /run slow
Economic and environmental reasons
www.icis.com 92
ONE – Styrenics investment in China
What about styrene itself?
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
(25)
-
25
50
75
100
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Op
erat
ing
rate
%
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Chinese styrene balance
Capacity Production - Consumption Operating rate (RHS)
www.icis.com 93
TWO – Styrenics investment in SE Asia
www.icis.com 94
TWO – Styrenics investment in SE Asia
Regional presence in styrenics limited to date
2.1m tonnes of styrene capacity = 23% China’s capacity
Old capacity – av. age of styrene unit = 21 years
Small capacity – av. size of styrene unit = 310,000 kta
Singapore and Thailand historic hubs
Smaller and fragmented businesses in Malaysia and Indonesia
www.icis.com 95
TWO – Styrenics investment in SE Asia
Regional presence in styrenics limited to date
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
INDONESIA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
Styrene capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
INDONESIA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
Downstream styrenics capacity
ABS EXPANDABLE PS POLYSTYRENE SB LATICES SBR (Includes SBCs)
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 96
TWO – Styrenics investment in SE Asia
Future plans also limited
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
INDONESIA MALAYSIA SINGAPORE THAILAND
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es/y
ear
Upcoming new plants
ABS ABS project Polystyrene SBR/SBC
www.icis.com 97
TWO – Styrenics investment in SE Asia
Future plans also limited
Lotte ABS investment in Indonesia
Took over two inefficient old sites – will modernise and expand
Plan to build a whole new world scale unit (300kta)
Talk of “post-China” strategy
Now talk of world scale unit not going ahead (April 2019)
Are talking to other companies planning on investing in ASEAN as well as India but these are far off plans
Logistics constraints are challenging
www.icis.com 98
TWO – Styrenics investment in SE Asia
Major issue is feedstock availability
-
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
Benzene capacity
China SE Asia
-
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
Ethylene capacity
China SE Asia
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 99
A quick look at recycling
www.icis.com 100
A quick look at recycling
More movement of PS to China from SE Asia
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
Chinese imports of polystyrene
TAIWAN HONG KONG SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE
JAPAN MALAYSIA OTHER SE ASIA OTHER
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18
Ton
nes
China imports of PS scrap
NE ASIA REST OF ASIA NORTH AMERICA OTHER
Supply, demand and price trends at a glanceICIS price forecast reports provide a clear view of prices and supply and demand trends for the next 12 months. Packed with vital information, reports include everything you need to assess where the market is heading and the impact or opportunity that presents for your business.
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Use ICIS price forecast reports to understand where the market is heading and identify the risks and the opportunities for your business. What are the major demand developments for your product?
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Whether you are planning how much you will be spending in the short-to-medium, or even long term, use the price forecast reports to help assess future prices for your product. What will the price of your product be in six months’ time?
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To find out more visit: www.icis.com/explore/enquire-about-icis-price-forecast-reports-and-forecast-windows
Price Forecast Window
ICIS Price Forecast Reports
Price forecast reports currently available
AsiaPolypropylene
PolyethyleneBenzene
Methanol
Styrenics
Europe USA Global
http://www.icis.com/explore/enquire-about-icis-price-forecast-reports-and-forecast-windows/?channel=chemicals&commodity=chemicals&cmpid=ILC|CHEM|CHCCH-2019-GLOBAL-SGC-apic-postevent-PDFpromo&sfid=7012X000001aiPP
www.icis.com 101
A quick look at recycling
Increased PS recycling in Malaysia but for how long?
Source: ICIS Petrochemicals Supply and Demand Database
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18
Ton
nes
PS scrap export destinations
China Hong Kong Malaysia Vietnam Taiwan Thailand Others
Malaysia now major centre for PS recycling
Indonesia and other SE Asia locations much smaller
BUT Malaysia now cutting down
Closing illegal recycling plants
Ports turning away cargoes
www.icis.com 102
Conclusion
In the medium-term more investment in styrenics and particularly in styrene will come in China
The speed and volume of this will depend on politics and economics
Over the next five years styrenics investment in SE Asia should remain muted
After this time investment will depend on
• Feedstock availability
• How much downstream manufacturing has moved
• How many barriers to entry there are e.g. infrastructure, taxes
• What the relative cost structure is
www.icis.com 103
Will China be the New Game Change in the Global Butadiene Market?
Taipei, May 2019
Helen Yan
Senior Editor, ICIS Editorial
www.icis.com 104www.icis.com 104
US-China Trade War – China Auto Sales Down
Asia Demand for BD and Synthetic Rubber Weakens
Shift in Market Dynamics – China BD Supply Lengthens
China a Game Changer – To Export BD from 2020
EU-Asia Arbitrage Trade to Decline
Agenda
www.icis.com 105
Escalating US-China trade tension
$34bn
$34bn
25% tariffs
$16bn
$16bn
6 July 23 August
8 August
$200bn
$60bn
10% tariffs, 25% by January
24 September
$267bn Pending
Includes $8.8bn worth of chemicals and polymers
5% & 10% tariffs
24 February 2019
Trump extends 1
March tariff deadline
2 December
90-day truceuntil 1 March
90-day truce China temporarily lowers
tariffs on US autos
14 December
Total US tariffs
applied to China
Total Chinese tariffs
applied to US
$250bn
$110bn
3rd round of tariffs
2nd round of tariffs
1st round of tariffs
October - November January-February
Trade talks resume Trade talks resume
www.icis.com 106
China automobile production growth rate declines in 2018
Source: CAAM
www.icis.com 107
Source: CAAM
2018 sales –first decline in 28 yrs
Total Jan-Mar 2019 sales –down 11.3% Y-o-Y
China vehicle sales decline in 2018, Q1 2019
Q1 2019 sales down 11.3% Y-o-Y
www.icis.com 108
China’s BD imports decline by 17% Y-o-Y in 2018
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China BD Imports 2017-2019
2017 2018 2019
unit:tonne
2017: 360 KT
2018: 301 KT
H1 2018 – 191 KT
H2 2018 – 110 KT
Chinese demand drops in H2 2018 amid US-China trade war tensions
Feb 2019 BD imports at 29KT, down 44% Y-o-Y
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
www.icis.com 109
China BD Imports By Country of Origin 2017/18 Northeast Asia
South Korea, Taiwan
Southeast Asia
Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore
Deep-sea
Netherlands, Germany
Brazil, Iran
South Asia
India
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
www.icis.com 110
BD Import Price vs Chinese Domestic BD Price
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 111
Chinese Domestic BD vs Import BD On Parity Basis
China domestic BD supply tightened in Q4 2018
Shanghai Secco shut 180 kta BD plant in Sept for maintenance
Restart of Shanghai Secco delayed till Dec 2018
Prolonged shutdown boosted Chinese domestic BD prices
US dollar BD import prices cheaper on import parity basis
www.icis.com 112
South Korea’s BD exports decline in 2018
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
South Korea BD Exports 2017-2019
2017 2018 2019
2017: 157 KT
2018: 149 KT
Source: KITA
www.icis.com 113
South Korea’s BD Imports Decline in Q1 2019
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
South Korea BD Imports 2017-2019
2017 2018 2019
2017: 424 KT
2018: 419 KT
Source: KITA
www.icis.com 114
Demand Weakens for Downstream PBR and SBR in China
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
PBR SBR
Source: Industry
www.icis.com 115
BD vs PBR Price Trend
www.icis.com 116
Downstream Spread - Butadiene and PBR Asia
Spread of $500-600/tonne to break even
Margins for PBR eroded end of 2018
BD dips in March 2019, spread widens
April 2019, BD dips below $1000 CFR
www.icis.com 117
BD vs SBR Price Trend
www.icis.com 118
Downstream Spread - Butadiene and SBR Asia
SBR spot declines from Sep 2018
SBR flat-to-soft in Q4 2018
Natural rubber cheaper in 2018
Demand for SBR slows down
Auto industry sluggish in China
www.icis.com 119
Demand for SBR weakens due to cheaper NR in 2018
Source: ICIS Analytics
www.icis.com 120
Key drivers of BD price trend in 2019
Demand
- Chinese vehicle production and sales to slow
- Asia’s manufacturing industry to contract
- Global economy to slow in 2019 – World Bank
Supply
- Asia to add more than half a million tonnes of BD in 2020
- China’s new plants to add 370,000 tonnes/year by 2020
- Malaysia’s RAPID to start up 180,000 tonnes/year plant in 2020
www.icis.com 121
Asia manufacturing PMI continues to weaken in early 2019
Multi-year lows in major Asian exporting countries
China – Feb official at 49.2 – lowest since Feb 2016; third straight month in a row
South Korea – 44-month low at 47.2 –fourth straight month of decline
Taiwan – three-and-a-half year low at 46.3 – fifth straight month of decline
www.icis.com 122
April manufacturing PMI lower for China and Taiwan
China - official PMI at 50.1 – down from 50.5 in March
China – Caixin’s PMI at 50.2 – down from 50.8 in March
Taiwan – down for eighth straight month at 48.2
South Korea – six-month high at 50.2
www.icis.com 123
China’s economy slows, lower GDP target for 2019
GDP growth target for 2019 – 6.0-6.5%
GDP growth in 2018 at 6.6% – lowest in 28 years
Value added tax (VAT) on manufacturing
VAT April cut to 13%, down 3%
www.icis.com 124
Geopolitics the biggest trade disrupter in energy markets–IEA
Early May – US-China trade war tensions escalate
US threat to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% on Chinese imports
Slower economic growth – the second biggest risk
Supply and demand – not the biggest risk
www.icis.com 125
Global economy to slow in 2019 – World Bank
Revised in January 2019
2019 - 2.9%
2018 - 3.0%
June 2018 projections
2019 - 3.0%
2018 - 3.1%
Supply and Demand DatabaseSingle searchable source of historical data on
global petrochemical and energy markets
✔ Historical and forecast data (1978-2040)
✔ Over 100 petrochemical products
✔ Over 12,000 refinery units
✔ Over 18,500 petrochemical plants
✔ Import, export and consumption volumes
✔ Plant capacity, production and operating status
✔ Upcoming plants, including speculative and announced projects
✔ Data breakdown by country, region, product or product family
✔ GDP, population, and consumer price index by country
More than just data, the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain, including refineries. Data is derived by ICIS’s team of Consultants using a ‘bottom-up’ approach – reconciling demand with supply, production, local capacity and net trade. Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption.
Request a one-to-one demo now. [email protected]/supplydemanddata
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www.icis.com 126
China to add 10% BD capacity by 2020
Total domestic nameplate capacity:
2018 – 3.87m tonnes
2020 – 4.24m tonnes (additional 370,000 tonnes)
China BD capacity additions in 2020 (tonne/year)
Company Location Technology Capacity Start-up schedule
Jiutai Energy Inner Mongolia CTO^/dehydrogenation 70,000 March 2019
Nanjing Chengzhi New Energy
Jiangsu MTO^/deyhydrogenation 100,000 Mid-2019
Zhejiang Petrochemical (Phase 1)
Zhejiang Naphtha cracker 200,000 H1 2020
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
www.icis.com 127
Current trade flow to change – China self-sufficient, West-East arbitrage to slow
www.icis.com 128www.icis.com 128
China a Game Changer
China To Export BD from 2020
EU-Asia Arbitrage Trade to Decline
Near-Term BD Outlook
Asia BD Trade Flow to Change from 2020
www.icis.com 129
Is Rationalisation the Only Way to Sustainability in the Phenol market?
A look at demand-supply, spreads and downstream sectors
Angeline Soh
Markets Editor
www.icis.com 130www.icis.com 130
Case studies of rationalisation
Demand across Asian countries
Capacities and upcoming plants
Spreads from phenol and downstream
Agenda
www.icis.com 131
Definitions
Rationalisation- to make a company more effective, usually by combining or stopping particular activities
Idling- facility remains, but unused
Permanent shutdown- plant ceases to exist
Sustainability - meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs- based on economic, environmental and social pillars –also known informally as profits, planet and people
www.icis.com 132
Case Studies
www.icis.com 133
1. Mitsui Chemicals
Chiba-based
250 kta
Shut end-September 2014
Unprofitable due to lower domestic demand and lower import prices
New plants in China
Japanese imports to China from 17% in 2014 to 3% in 2018
www.icis.com 134
1. Mitsui Chemicals
End-Sep SD – prices and spread continue to lower
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 135
2. Kumho P&B, Line 1
Yeosu-based
30 kta
Idled early 2009, later scrapped
www.icis.com 136
2. Kumho P&B, Line 1
Immediate improvement in prices after the line was idled; the spread still remained narrow until 2010.
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 137
3. Kumho P&B, Line 2
Yeosu-based
130 kta
Idled in June 2016
Market sources – to reduce impact of capacity expansion from lines 3 and 4
More capacity added smaller line was idled, but bigger lines were built
Mixed prices, lower spread
www.icis.com 138
3. Kumho P&B, Line 2
End- June idling – prices, spread mixed
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 139
4. Shell
Based in Deer Park, Texas
Older line
240 kta; 40% of plant’s capacity
Idled in January 2018 due to stagnant economic growth, less consumption, increased derivatives from Asia
www.icis.com 140
4. Shell
End-Jan idling – prices mixed but spread soared
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 141
Why did US export Phenol to China?
1990s – US capacities increased due to high demand for derivative PC from the consumer electronic sectors like DVD
2000s – DVD demand waned but other segments like construction supported phenol
Towards 2010s – Asia’s capacities increased; feedstock benzene cost advantage. Asia PC, epoxy resins sold to US and eroded phenol demand. US run rates kept high due to acetone commitments export discounted phenol to Asia
www.icis.com 142
Global trade flow
www.icis.com 143Source: ICIS Supply and Demand DatabaseSource: ICIS Demand and Supply Database
www.icis.com 144
Demand in Asian countries
www.icis.com 145
1886 18931958
2229
2426
2705
557 558 583643 672 677
850906 928
980 983 9849741082 1059 1107
1123 1150
256 269 288 305318 331
179 160120
176 176 176
336 336 348 353 353 354
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
China demand surges ahead (kta)
CHINA JAPAN SOUTH KOREA TAIWAN INDIA SINGAPORE THAILAND
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 146
China domestic production vs imports (kt)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Largely self-sufficient; imports doubled
Domestic Imports
www.icis.com 147
Capacities
www.icis.com 148
Capacities in Asia and the Middle East (kta)
COMPANY SITE CAP
SINOPEC
YANSHAN
COMPANY BEIJING 185
CEPSA QUIMICA
(SHANGHAI) CO CAOJING 250
SINOPEC MITSUI
CHEMICALS CAOJING 250
SINOPEC
SHANGHAI
GAOQIAO CO CAOJING 135
CHANG CHUN PC CHANGSHU 300
SINOPEC SABIC
TIANJIN PC DAGANG 220
SHANDONG
LIHUAYI GROUP DONGYING 220
BLUESTAR
HARBIN
PETROCHEMICAL HARBIN 75
COMPANY SITE CAP
CNOOC AND SHELL
PC HUIZHOU 220
HUIZHOU ZHONGXIN
CHEMICAL HUIZHOU 183
PETROCHINA JILIN
PC JILIN 94
FORMOSA PLASTICS
CORP NINGBO 300
SHIYOU CHEMICAL
YANGZHOU YANGZHOU 220
CHANG CHUN
PLASTICS KAOHSIUNG 300
TAIWAN PROSPERITY
CHEM KAOHSIUNG 360
FORMOSA
CHEMICALS AND
FIBERS MAI LIAO 440
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 149
Upcoming Capacities 2019-2020
www.icis.com 150
Gail India’s new 108 kta start-up is not confirmed.
Region Producer Phenol Acetone BPACyclohe
xanone
Phenolic
ResinsStart-up
Shandong Lihuayi 220 130 120 2020
ZhejiangZhejiang
Petrochemical400 250 230 2019-2020
Zhejiang
Formosa
Chemicals
Industries
(Ningbo)
100 60Q2/Q3
2020
JiangsuChang Chun
(Changshu)135 Q2 2019
Shanghai Covestro 200 2019-2020
TianjinSinopec SABIC
Tianjin240 2020
Jiangsu CPDC China 150 April 2019
Guangdong
Jinan
Shengquan 50 Q2 2019
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database, market
in kta
www.icis.com 151
Risk of over-supply
The additions in 2019-2020 will push China’s nameplate capacity to more than 3.3m tonnes/year
Demand is less than 3m tonnes/year
Fewer imports required in India as Deepak Phenolics started up
Over-supply will risk poor margins; rationalisation in the long-run
www.icis.com 152
Operating Rates in China
www.icis.com 153
97
73 7279
8596
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Run rates (%) higher than optimal for break-even
Source: ICIS Consulting, market
Up to Q1
www.icis.com 154
Import Supply – US volumes to China dwindle
www.icis.com 155
13%
1%
7%
17%
32%
15%
5%
10%
25%
27%20%
23% 1%
4%
US imports: 2014 at only 13%, soars to 25% in 2015
www.icis.com 156
26%
1%
15%
14%
25%
7%
12%
26%
9%
4%
10%
31%
2%3%
15%
US imports: 2016, 2017 above 25%
www.icis.com 157
US imports: 2018 cut – ADD probe, trade war with China
US – biggest exporter to China in 2016
Continued to contribute more than 25% in 2017
Fell from first place, as importers lost interest after talks emerged that an ADD probe would take place against them
Demand was further curbed, as the trade war between China and the US led to a 10% import tariff
www.icis.com 158
18%
1%
17%
3%41%
3%3%
14%
US EU Saudi Japan S Korea Taiwan Singapore Thailand
Source: ICIS Consulting
US imports: 2018 falls below 20%
www.icis.com 159
India closer to self-sufficiency
www.icis.com 160
Capacities in India
Company Location Capacity (kta)
Hindustan Organic
Chemicals Ltd (HOCL)
Kochi, Kerala 42
SI Group Navi Mumbai,
Maharashtra
36
Deepak Phenolics Dahej, Gujerat 200
Total 278
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
www.icis.com 161
India’s imports volumes fall
Source: ICIS Supply and Demand Database
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
August September October November December January
Import volumes lower YoY after Deepak Phenolics started
2017 2018 2019
Less than 50kta import demand
www.icis.com 162
India’s import prices fall after local production stabilises
Source: ICIS
www.icis.com 163
Spread – Benzene and Phenol
www.icis.com 164
Spread at historical high
Source: ICIS
Supply curbed- No US volumes since Q4 2018 due to ADD probe, trade war between China and US- Turnarounds within Asia
www.icis.com 165
Spread – Downstream
www.icis.com 166
Dwindling spread for downstream
Source: ICIS
Phenol-BPA spread BPA-PC spread
www.icis.com 167
Profits… People and Planet?
www.icis.com 168
Consumption by Downstream in China5
69
0
55
2
65
70
0
59
1
0
68
5
67
55
062
1
0
81
9
68
45
0
64
2
35
10
32
70
45
0
67
9
17
5
10
50
72
45
0
71
5
30
0
11
66
74
45
0
PHENOLIC RESINS CAPROLACTAM BISPHENOL A ALKYPHENOL MISCELLANEOUS
BPA BIGGEST, CAPRO FASTEST
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: ICIS Consulting
www.icis.com 169
Opportunities – rising consumption
Fashion
Caprolactam
The global adaptive clothing market reached $278.2bn in 2018 and may increase to $325.8bn in 2022, according to Coresight Research
Pharmaceuticals
Vaccines, medicine for sore throat and stomachache
The global pharmaceuticals market was worth $934.8bn in 2017 and will reach $1.17tr in 2021, growing at 5.8%, according to The Business Research Company
www.icis.com 170
Threats – falling consumption
Phenol
X Usage in shower gels and shampoo: linked to early puberty in girls –aggression/inferiority; body size
BPA
X Linked to cancer, heart disease, infertility
banned in baby products like milk bottles and pacifiers, in US, the EU, Canada, China
Polycarbonate
X Shift away from single-use plastics, move towards environmental consciousness
www.icis.com 171
Threats – falling consumption
Taiwan
- 2019 – no plastic straws for in-store F&B use
- 2030 – ban on all plastic bags, disposable utensils, and disposable beverage cups
China
- 2018 – banned plastic waste imports
Increased recycling capacities
India
- Nearly 20 states banned plastic bags
www.icis.com 172
Conclusion
www.icis.com 173
Rationalisation is NOT the only way to sustainability
Profits
- Spread – upstream and downstream
- Demand – expansion of phenol consumption and downstream; integration
- Supply – monitor capacity expansion, operating rates
People
- Widen the benefits of usage, limit the harms
- Workers lose jobs
Planet
- Work hand-in-hand for push towards environmental consciousness
www.icis.com 174
Asian PX market outlook – from the angle of the PET value chain cycle
Jenny Yi
Senior Analyst
www.icis.com 175www.icis.com 175
Agenda
PET value chain cycle review
PET value chain outlook
Scenario analysis
Free competition in Asia’s PET industry
ADDs imposed on PX by China
www.icis.com 176
PET value chain cycle review
www.icis.com 177Copyright © 2015 ICIS – Private & Confidential
North America
Middle East
Europe
China
Asia (exclChina)
The global PET value chain is dominated by Asia, especially China
PET
PTA
PX
South and CentralAmerica
Africa
Former USSR
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
PX PTA PET
23% 56% 60%
PX PTA PET
53% 29% 22%
www.icis.com 178Copyright © 2015 ICIS – Private & Confidential
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
Asia PET Capacity (2000-2018)
China PET Capacity Asia (excl China) PET Capacity
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Asia PTA Capacity (2000-2018)
China PTA Capacity Asia (excl China) PTA Capacity
Source: ICIS Supply & Demand Database
China owned 66% of Asian PTA capacity
in 2018.
PTA CAGR (2000-2018).
China : 18.5%
Asia (excl China) : 2.3%
China owned 73% of Asian PET c
