ICIS Energy Forum - s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com · The key trends Ed Cox Editor, Global LNG, ICIS...

wwwiciscom 1

ICIS Energy Forum Crude Oil LNG and Gas Markets

wwwiciscom 2

Global Oil Market TrendsOctober 2018

Sophie Udubasceanu

Global Crude Oil Editor

wwwiciscom 3wwwiciscom 3

ICIS World Crude Report

Volatility in the oil futures market

OPEC and its output-curbing deal

Crude flows and arbitrage spreads

Crude inventories and production

China and the global oil demand growth

Oil Market Outlook

Agenda

wwwiciscom 4

ICIS WORLD CRUDE REPORT

A daily report published in three updates

Price Data on Physical and Futures markets

Futures market commentary

Key Indicators (graphic details of oil markets)

Oil Market Drivers (Review amp Outlook)

Editorial features and analysis

Regional sections North Sea West Africa

Mediterranean CIS Asia Pacific Arab Gulf US

ICIS is the only provider of data that feeds into the

ICE Brent index the settlement for the London ICE exchange

wwwiciscom 5

Key crude grades around the world

wwwiciscom 6

What drives the oil price

Disruptions or the

perception of disruptions

Supply amp Demand

Possible impact

on supply and demand

Geopolitical factors

Production quotas

OPEC

Inverted

correlation

US Dollar

Buyers attract

more buyers

Sentiment

wwwiciscom 7

Volatility in the oil market

Brent $8498

WTI $753

Dubai $8395

$40bbl

$45bbl

$50bbl

$55bbl

$60bbl

$65bbl

$70bbl

$75bbl

$80bbl

$85bbl

Front Month Crude Oil Benchmarks on 01-Oct-2018

Brent $8498 WTI $753 Dubai $8395

Source ICE NYMEX Dubai

wwwiciscom 8

Recent key drivers for the futures market

1

2

3

4

5

OPECrsquos oil output

curbing deal starts in

2017

US sanctions

against Iran loom

Production weakens in

Venezuela and Libya

Libyan

production

resumes

US-China trade war fuels

lower demand concerns 6

Market to focus on

US-China tensions

wwwiciscom 9

OPEC amp non-OPEC deal cut output by 18m bblday

Source OPECRussian Energy Ministry

OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance

August 18 Compliance

Algeria 005 99 98Angola 008 123 121Ecuador 003 98 98

Equatorial Guinea 013 NA

NA

Gabon 001 97 97Iran -009 111 107Iraq 021 96 94Kuwait 013 97 97Qatar 003 101 100Saudi Arabia 049 94 96UAE 014 98 97

Venezuela 01 139 143

Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18in

th

ou

san

d b

bl

day

Russias oil production

Crude Oil ProductionOPEC memberExempt July 18

ProductionAugust 18 Production

Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10

OPEC vs US supply and demand growth

-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25

Supply 2016 Supply 2017 Supply 2018 Demand 2016 Demand 2017 Demand 2018

OPEC Crude amp NGL Non OPEC Crude NGL Biofuels refinery gains OECD Oil Demand non OECD Oil Demand

m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11

OPEC CRUDE OIL FLOWS

wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl

Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18

Crude arbitrage spreads 07-Sep-2018Brent-Dubai EFS M1 WTI to Brent spread

Key crude arbitrage spreads

US sellers retreat as spread narrows

Brent-WTI spread starts to widen =gt US bbl head to EuropeAsia

Rising EFS prevents trading opportunities to the east

Tighter spread increases Asian buying interest

wwwiciscom 13

OECD commercial crude oil inventories declining

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

OECD crude stocks Forecast 5-year average

wwwiciscom 14

US oil inventories and domestic output

9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18

in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl

US Crude stocks US Crude production

wwwiciscom 15

Chinese inventories following suit

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18

in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16

China and the global oil demand

Is one of the largest oil

consumer and a key

importer Oil remains outside of the dispute

US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand

growth closely linked to

Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17

Slower growth in China

countered by higher demand

expectations from India

Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports

China demand growth forecast in 2018

Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18

Lorem IpsumDonec non velit euismod nisi fermentum

facilisis In nec dui ipsum

US sanctions against Tehran ndash due to weigh

heavily on Iranian oil exports

US-China trade dispute ndash new tariffs will

heighten energy demand concerns

Looming US mid-term elections

OPEC and non-OPEC oil production ndash Saudi

Arabia and Russian production increases

Market developments to follow

wwwiciscom 19

Thank you for listening

Sophie Udubasceanu

Global Crude Oil EditorSophieudubasceanuiciscom

Questions

wwwiciscom 20

Global LNG marketsThe key trends

Ed Cox

Editor Global LNG ICIS

London October 2018


Winter LNG floor and ceiling prices are high

China has balanced the market ndash and production delays

US LNG more obvious from next year

Qatar and Shell set tone for mid 2020s supply push

Key messages

wwwiciscom

Production growth expected to rebound in 2019 after weak 2018

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn

esProduction by region 2018-2020 (ICIS Supply Forecast)

Asia-Pacific North America Middle East Africa South America Europe

2018 LNG production growth up 8 in 2018 to 316m tonnes 2019 - up 12 2020 - up 10

wwwiciscom

Long build times and delays persist

-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year

Plant average construction performance by build year 2004-2018

Construction time (years) Cumulative schedule change (years)

wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB

tuKey front-month market prices

ICIS East Asia Index ICIS Brent crude ICIS TTF

LNG pricing a firmer phase

wwwiciscom

Oil European gas support Asian spot LNG

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19

$M

MB

tu

Key month ahead oil and gas prices

Oil price parity Japan LNG contract price ICIS East Asia Index

TTF US FOB LNG contract US FOB LNG contract plus 25

Sept 2018 vs Sept 2017

TTF +52Spot Asia LNG +41

Brent + 40Henry Hub +03

wwwiciscom

Winter demand drivers

Chinarsquos gas conversion continues but import terminals stacked

Japan South Korearsquos sensitivity to nuclear plant restarts

New demand India Pakistan and Bangladesh

Europe ndash expensive but is it enough

Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom

China and the UK are LNG demand opposites

bull Japan contract balance peaks in 2019

bull Pakistan long-term approach

bull UK not attractive

-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000

China S Korea India Pakistan France Turkey Japan UAE Egypt UK

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Global LNG the big demand swingsLast 12-month demand change vs 3-year average

wwwiciscom

Asiarsquos price premium to Northwest Europe impacts LNG flows

53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep

Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu

Strong correlation between spread and reloads

Tonnes of LNG reloaded from UK Belgium Netherlands France

Tonnes of LNG delivered to UK Belgium Netherlands France

East Asia premium to Northwest Europe LNG $MMBtu

wwwiciscom

Qatarrsquos European LNG supply share falls

2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018

Three largest European LNG suppliers by market shareJanuary to September

Algeria Nigeria Qatar

US LNG supply share into Europe

2017 ndash 42018 ndash 2

European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

Competition from US LNG sellers to intensify

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB

tu) US LNG costs vs Asian long-term contracts

US liquefaction to Asia (SRMC) US liquefaction to Asia (LRMC) Japanese legacy contract

Recent East Asia LTC (2017) Recent South Asia LTC (20178)

Sellers reportedly offering constants under $2MMBtu

wwwiciscom

Where are we in the cycle

Momentum building for export projects

Life returns to long-term LNG contracts

Growing role of intermediaries

Global LNG the key trends

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s

Average contract length (source ICIS LNG Edge)

wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox

Editor Global LNGEdCoxiciscom

Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36

Short-term LNG markets analysis amp outlook

Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda

Introduction Short-term market trends

bull Short-term market growth remains gradual

bull Pricing and tenors - Commodification or hybridity

bull Role of tenders churn and

bull China and Korea stimulate EAsia buying resurgence

bull Supply-side delays contribute to market tightness

Short-term markets in 2018

bull Challenge to replace Argentina and Egypt demand

bull Prospects for short-term market growth as a whole

Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38

Short-term market trends

bull Short-term sales growth has increased in absolute terms but stagnated as of totalMarket scale

bull Tenders favoured outside traditional markets

bull Asian buyers show new appetite for short and mid-term contracts

Procurement methods

bull Churn of cargoes increasing but a fraction of traded US and European gas hubs

bull Financial market still 10 size of physical

Liquidity Commodification

bull Sell-side still highly concentrated

bull Traders providing liquidity or acting as risk managers for the majors

Market structure

wwwiciscom 39

Short-term share remains under one-third

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)

Global short-term transactions as of total - H1 2015-H1 2018 (ICIS)

Short-term sales short-term of total

Growth of short-term market has been capped by existing firm long-term contracts and recommitment of flexible volumes to term as spot discount erodes

wwwiciscom 40

Global short-term markets highly varied

Market Principal buyers Procurement method

East Asia JERA Kansai Kyushu (Japan)KOGAS independents (South Korea) CPC (Taiwan POC) Petrochina CNOOC (China)

-High credit-rating experienced buyers generally favouring bilateral deals leveraging term relationships-Japanese buyers gradually retreating from spot market as delayed long-term contract supply -KOGAS uses tenders incremental purchases to mitigate nuclear woes-Chinese majors active in spot market but signs of new term appetite-CPC favours oil-indexed string deals but also buys spot in summer peak

South and SE Asia Indian utilities PSO (Pakistan) PTT (Thailand) Petrobangla(Bangladesh)

-Indian buyers price sensitive Generally purchase at a discount to East Asia spot but have range of price benchmarks in ST deals Have used mixture of bilateral deals and buy tenders to supplement term-PTT has favoured spot buy tenders alongside term supply-PSO and Petrobangla so far reliant on term contracts

Americas Petrobras (Brazil) ENARSA (Argentina)CFE (Mexico)

-ENARSA large-scale counter-seasonal tenders at Brent or Henry Hub indexed pricing-Petrobras uses portfolio of short-term flexible deals when Brazil needs to bridge hydroelectric deficit -CFE tenders on different price bases in Atlantic and Pacific

Southern Europe BOTAS (Turkey)Spanish utilities

-BOTAS active through combination of Brent-indexed strings and spot-Spanish utilities have participated in spot market to meet renewables shortfalls or to backfill diversions to Asia competing with EAsia prices

Middle East and North Africa

EGAS (Egypt) DUSUP (Dubai) KPC (Kuwait) NEPCO (Jordan)

-NEPCO DUSUP and EGAS favoured oil-indexed multi-year tenders supplemented by spot cargoes

wwwiciscom 41

Asian buyers seeking hybrid tenors and pricing

1 Reduction in average long-term contract length

Buyers pushing for shorter and more flexible gas-indexed contracts Has reduced average contract length

2 Changing buyer profiles ndash declining credit quality

Traditional A-rated buyers in Asia (outside China) are either well or over-contracted from LTCs Demand growth largely centred on emerging buyers in SouthSouth East Asia and MENA that have weaker credit ratings

3 The growth of the lsquoportfoliorsquo intermediary

Current market oversupply and declining buyer credit quality has facilitated growth of LNG lsquointermediariesrsquo ndash eg commodity traders Trafigura Vitol Gunvor in LNG contracting Helping to erode direct contracting of LNG between producers and end suppliers

Source JERA

4 Growing LNG buyer influence Growing negotiating power of LNG buyers will likely force greater market risk and contracting concessions onto producers More price diversity in LNG contracting (eg JERArsquos stated LTC contracting strategy)

wwwiciscom 42

Consolidation means sellers retain market power

Estimate of 2017 global short-term sales (selected participants)

Shell QatargasRasGas Cheniere TotalENGIE BP Others

sales recorded by final transaction only

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44

Prices rise in band between TTF floor and crude ceiling

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018

EAX vs key prices Jan 2017-Sep 2018 (ICIS)

Spot LNG - EAX Index Month +1 Closing value ICIS Brent Month +1 Closing value

TTF Price Assessment Month +1 Bid-offer range Japan import Month +1 Calculation

wwwiciscom 45

Resurgent spot demand erodes discount to term

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn

esEast Asia all short-term procurement (LNG Edge)

Spot Short and mid-term contract Average spot price Average MTC|STC price Average LTC price

wwwiciscom 46

China and Korea underpin rise in ST buying

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn

esE Asia short-term LNG purchases by country (ICIS)

Japan China South Korea Taiwan

wwwiciscom 47

Chinarsquos policy-driven spot surge drove winter market

bull In May-July 2017 NDRC announced measures to drive gas to 10 of primary energy demand by

2020 including lower citygate prices transmission tariff cuts and lower VAT on imports

bull 2018 imports to July up 55 year-on-year at 28m tonnes

bull PetroChina commits to extra 34mtpa from Qatargas

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020

Primary Energy Mix Target of Chinarsquos 13th Five Yr Plan (2015-2020)

Coal Oil Gas Renewables (inc hydro)

wwwiciscom 48

Nuclear outages send South Korea back into short-term market

-Nuclear generation fell seven percentage points year-on-year in H12018 to 30 of the generation mix with gas-fired generation responding-Longer inspections and new plant delays have contributed to shortfall

wwwiciscom 49

India spot buying drives Q2 2018 import record

000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

India imports by sales basis Q1 2015 to Q2 2018 (ICIS)

LTC delivery MTC|STC delivery Spot delivery LTC average MTC|STC average Spot average

wwwiciscom 50

Global competition for short-term volumes robust for now

0

1

2

3

4

5

Argentina Brazil Mexico Egypt Jordan Kuwait UAE Turkey Spain Italy

Americas MENA Europe

Selected Rest of World short-term purchases 2017-18 (ICIS)

Jan-Aug 2017 Jan-Aug 2018

-Egypt remains in market despite domestic production growth-Domestic and pipeline yet to drive Argentina Brazil and Mexico out of market-Turkey short-term LNG imports have defied economic and policy pressures

wwwiciscom 51

Supply and demand events drive price formation

0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018

EAX vs market events Jan 2017-Sep 2018

Spot LNG - EAX Index Month +1 Closing value

Eight-month delay at Ichthys

EGAS issues 9-cargo tender

Sabah-Sarawak pipeline outage

PNG LNG outage

KOGAS issues winter tender at 14-16 Brent

NDRC outlines plans to increase gas usage

CNOOC issues winter cargo tender

wwwiciscom 52

Start-ups delays have tightened market

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Start-up performance to date vs1 Jan 2017 expectation


Expected start-up performancein winter 1819 now vs 1 Jan

2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Start-up performance vs previous assumptions

Cameron Cove Point Elba Freeport Ichthys

Prelude Wheatstone Yamal Net change

wwwiciscom 53

Other supply-side developments in 2018Area Production trend

Outages

-Unplanned outages have greater impact than 2017-Malaysia LNG production expected to fall gt4m tonnes in 2018 due to Sabah-Sarawak pipeline outage-PNG LNG outage removed a further 12m tonnes of anticipated production

Gas-constrained producer performance

-Arzew and Skikda produced 14m tonnes less in January-August 2018 than equivalent 2017 period-Bontang year-to-date production has remained stable on 2017 levels outperforming Pertamina guidance-Trinidad upstream work has partially restored performance

Outperformerspartially compensate

-Gorgon has overcome early technical issues to hit capacity-Time to plateau at Yamal Cove Point and Wheatstone 2 have exceeded typical ramp-up performance-Oman LNG has hit plateau levels in summer months utilising Khazzanproduction

wwwiciscom 54

Short-term markets outlook 2019-2020

wwwiciscom 55

Withdrawing markets to leave gap in 2019

wwwiciscom 56

China and South Asia offer growth potential

bull Japanrsquos spot market role to be curtailed by Ichthys and nuclear restarts

bull Korea and Taiwan demand buoyed by policy but dependent on nuclear performance

Japan Korea and Taiwan

bull Procurement growth may switch to term as importers achieve policy clarity

bull Tariffs on US imports being mitigated by physical LNG swaps for now

China

bull India to raise capacity by 14mtpa with three new terminals

bull Pakistan and Bangladesh expected to raise imports to mitigate domestic shortages

South Asia

wwwiciscom 57

New supply to exert influence on winter 201920

0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth

Expected production from LNG facilities in development as at September 2018 (ICIS LNG Supply Forecast)

Cameron Corpus Christi Elba Island Freeport Ichthys LNG Prelude

Excludes new trains at existing facilities eg Sabine Pass and Yamal

wwwiciscom 58

Strong policy support andor established gas usage the keys to growth

Country Consistent policy support for gas in energy mix

Declining 5-year gas production

Absolute 5-year growth to 2017(m tonnes)

Average annual five-year growth rate 2017

Thailand Yes Yes 28 352

China Yes No 235 224

United Arab Emirates

Yes No 14 222

Portugal No NA 11 167

Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57

Highest growth import countries with a five-year history and recorded demand growth of more than 1m tonnes (ICIS)

wwwiciscom 59

Prospective growth markets have historic gas role

Country Consistent policy supportfor gas in energy mix


Gas consumption (2017 bcm)

Gas share in generation mix

Sovereign credit rating

IndonesiaYes Yes 392 29 BBB-

Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-

PakistanYes Yes 407 23 B

Selected recent and prospective LNG import countries

Source BP Fitch IEA government agencies

wwwiciscom 60

bull More than 75mtpa of LNG supply contracts are set to expire 2018-2023

bull Buyers likely to replace with short and mid-term contracts with lower volumes

0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia

Portfolio Supplier (no desination)

Contracts of 5+ years duration due to expire by region 2018-23

2018-2020 2021-23Source ICIS LNG Edge

Expiring contracts allow space for short-term market growth

wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63

ICIS Energy ForumEuropean gas market review and outlook

Tom Marzec-Manser

Editor European Spot Gas Markets


Prices ndash 2018 v 2017

Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies

LNG ripples and Norway

Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda

wwwiciscom 65Copyright copy 2015 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential


2018 so far

lsquoBeast from the Eastrsquo leads Day-ahead to all time high of euro85MWh on 1 March 2018

TTF Winter expires almost euro10MWh ndash or 56 ndash higher year on year

During summer the average WinterDay-ahead spread was half of what it was a year earlier

Impact on storage injections despite low starting inventories

Q4 rsquo18Q1 lsquo19 spread tightened to almost parity

Increased risk that with not enough gas in stock volatility during winterrsquos delivery will rise



Storage landscape

Netherlands like Germany not back to last yearrsquos levels

Italy the next largest market fine given storage obligation as are CEE tanks

Rough in Britain now gone ndash NBP seasonal spreads no longer driving storage market

German storage capacity is 237bcm which is 27 of the European total


Interconnector ndash Britainrsquos proxy store

20-year capacity rights have now ended

IUK selling capacity implicitly to allow shippers to lock-in moving spreads rather than wait for static explicit allocation process

Implicit bookings so far show storage profiling

Basic explicit DA cost is 4pth (approx euro15MWh) so forward spreads already blow out between NBP and Zee to ensure GB S-o-S

Expect prompt prices volatility in times of stress

wwwiciscom 70Copyright copy 2015 ICIS ndash Private amp ConfidentialSource IUK - Data as of 11018



Groningen productions cap continues to tighten

TTF traded volumes in Q1 lsquo18 hit record high on the back of major curve repositioning in response to tightening production cap

Ever widening Groningen gap is increasing the EUrsquos import demand which currently is mainly being filled by Russian supplies

GY lsquo18 cap 194bcm only 600mcm lower than current GY lsquo17 output


Dutch gas fundamentals going forward

Similar caps for GY lsquo18 and GY lsquo17 suggest similar production profile

Winter swing absence again drives likelihood of winter volatility

Ultimately Groningen gap will need filling

Russia via Nord Stream 2 most likely outcomehellip


Tightening caps to 2020 of 12bcm to partially muted by

L- to H-gas switching in NW Europe

Improved Small Fields output

More blending

Bid-ladder payments - proposed



Russian supplies to Europe

Nord Stream and Yamal pipe operate as baseload

In Q3 lsquo18 Gazprom ships 474bcm to Europe up 23 y-o-y

Year-to-date supplies at 1437bcm up 29 y-o-y

Gazprom aiming for 200bcm record

Gazprom Export electronic auction volumes minimal

Notional LTC price suggests widening discount to TTF

Implies higher off-take of Russian contract gas


Europe fails to ride the LNG wave

Yamal operations start up but have mainly delivered beyond NW Europe

US cargoes similarly deliver largely away from EUrsquos liquid hubs

South America and Asia ndash China in particular ndashabsorb much of the supply


Norway hardly in a position to compete

Export pipeline capacity constrained in winter

New production largely replacing depleting fields

But Aasta Hansteen production to begin this autumn

Polarled (70mcmd) to Nyhamna and onward to NBP

Baltic Pipe (2022) could divert some spot volumes away from NW Europe


Gazpromrsquos future routes to market

Plans to build Nord Stream 2 (55bcma) and TurkStream (315bcma) remain on course and due to be operational by October 2019

Equates to 237mcmd of available extra capacity

GASPOOL far curve churn rising

Ukrainersquos average load in last two years has been 254mcmd

Suggests only 62bcma needed to continue to flow this way if both new pipes advance

Rising EU import demand driven by Groningen and fuel switching would increase this

Title transfer at Baumgarten etc still key for many buyers of Russian volume


The Russian pincer

EU started mediation talks between Russia and Ukraine in early July

Brussels likely to seek a minimum guaranteed transit from Gazprom on Ukraine

South Stream Light not likely in the next year or so

Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip

Spot prices during Winter likely to be volatile as stocks not in healthy state

Increased short-term buying during delivery rather than taking receipt of gas bought forward

Russian LTC-TTF spread puts Gazprom volumes in the money

Global LNG demand to continue to limit cargoes into Europe

NBP-TTF spreads to become more pronounced

Outright prices to remain high due to wider energy complex



hellipfurther ahead

As Groningen caps become tighter expect TTF to become more expensive

BBL still has 20mcmday of LT booking - bidirectional from autumn 2019

Through to end of 2019 ndash SONATRACH contract changes ndash shorter in lengthmore price responsive

Flows over Med into Italy likely to be more volatile

As Nord Stream 2 moves closer to reality expect GASPOOL to become cheaper

Also for GASPOOL volumes to increase

End of transit agreement between Gazprom and Ukraine to alter flows through EU

Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream now just a year away

wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser


+44 (0) 20 7911 1964tommarzec-mansericiscom

Follow me on Twitter tmarzecmanser and on and LinkedInSource ENTSOG

wwwiciscom 85

European gas market liquidity and hub development

Ben Samuel

Deputy editor of European Spot Gas Markets


Northwest Europe TTF and NBP market trends

Hub mergers and potential growth areas

Future opportunities Romanian example

Agenda

wwwiciscom 87

Northwest Europe TTF and NBP gas market trends

wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89

OTC gas churn ratios 2011-2018

wwwiciscom 90

ICIS tradability index

wwwiciscom 91

Latest tradability index Q2 2018

wwwiciscom 92

TTF catching up but NBP exchange trade remains higher

wwwiciscom 93

Europersquos benchmarks looking ahead

NBP expected to remain an important and liquid market but substantial growth in volumes unlikely

Uncertainty over Brexit makes predictions difficult although significant change to Britainrsquos gas market structure not expected following exit from EU

Further TTF growth expected with market changes elsewhere leading to more liquidity

Exchange trade still not as developed in the Dutch market with room for further expansion

wwwiciscom 94

Hub mergers and growth areas

wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals

Less prone to price spikes

TRS

Reliant on north-south link

One LNG terminal

Prone to price spikes

Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger

Single French gas price

Abolition of north-south link

Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform

Auction system for winter lsquo18

Increased capacity reservations

wwwiciscom 98

French merger ndash a boost from the power sector

Safety concerns at ageing plants

Public sentiment turning against nuclear

Regional contagion

CCGT use up in short term

wwwiciscom 99

French merger outcomes

Combined market smaller than Belgium

Single PEG hub unlikely to challenge the majors

Some growth likely particularly with new cross-border opportunities with Spanish PVB

Market size likely to remain limited long-term

wwwiciscom 100

In the longer term German hub merger expected 2021

Largest demand in the EU ndash90bcmyear

Nord Stream 2 online by end of decade ndash 55bcmyear increase in import capacity

Export demand to reach 112bcmyear by 2023 (assuming flat consumption in neighbouring countries) although Nord Stream covers most of this

Coalnuclear closures set to boost demand

wwwiciscom 101

Power sector gas demand to peak in 2023 based on moderate coal phase out

More than 200bcm domesticexport demand

New renewable capacity planned to offset coalnuclear closures

Gas demand profile likely to be more volatile particularly after 2030

Some liquidity growth likely

wwwiciscom 102

German merger likely outcomes

Role as regional price-setter to increase

Merged market to become central European benchmark with NCG arguably already in that role

Traded volumes still likely to lag TTF and probably the NBP

TTF expected to remain primary venue for hedging

wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104

Romanian production potential

Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm

majority of untapped

in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105

EU network code on balancing

Ten countries opt to

implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for

countries on interim

measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106

State of the market and recent developments

All trade happening through exchanges mainly the Bucharest Stock Exchange

Bespoke contracts tend to dominate with no churn

Market dominated by companies with a domestic presence

October 2018 ndash introduction of daily balancing and virtual trading point

wwwiciscom 107

Embracing EU rules in Spain

EU balancing rules introduced

wwwiciscom 108

Hindrances to Romanian development

Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you

Ben SamuelDeputy Editor ESGMbensamueliciscomTel 0044 207 911 1726Eikon benSamueliciscomhttpwwwiciscom

wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 2

Global Oil Market TrendsOctober 2018

Sophie Udubasceanu

Global Crude Oil Editor








Oil Market Outlook

Agenda

wwwiciscom 4












wwwiciscom 5


wwwiciscom 6


Disruptions or the


Supply amp Demand

Possible impact



Production quotas

OPEC

Inverted

correlation

US Dollar

Buyers attract

more buyers

Sentiment

wwwiciscom 7


Brent $8498

WTI $753

Dubai $8395

$40bbl

$45bbl

$50bbl

$55bbl

$60bbl

$65bbl

$70bbl

$75bbl

$80bbl

$85bbl




wwwiciscom 8


1

2

3

4

5



2017

US sanctions

against Iran loom


Venezuela and Libya

Libyan

production

resumes



Market to focus on

US-China tensions

wwwiciscom 9



OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance




NA



Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400


th

ou

san

d b

bl

day




Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110








Oil Market Outlook

Agenda

wwwiciscom 4












wwwiciscom 5


wwwiciscom 6


Disruptions or the


Supply amp Demand

Possible impact



Production quotas

OPEC

Inverted

correlation

US Dollar

Buyers attract

more buyers

Sentiment

wwwiciscom 7


Brent $8498

WTI $753

Dubai $8395

$40bbl

$45bbl

$50bbl

$55bbl

$60bbl

$65bbl

$70bbl

$75bbl

$80bbl

$85bbl




wwwiciscom 8


1

2

3

4

5



2017

US sanctions

against Iran loom


Venezuela and Libya

Libyan

production

resumes



Market to focus on

US-China tensions

wwwiciscom 9



OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance




NA



Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400


th

ou

san

d b

bl

day




Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 4












wwwiciscom 5


wwwiciscom 6


Disruptions or the


Supply amp Demand

Possible impact



Production quotas

OPEC

Inverted

correlation

US Dollar

Buyers attract

more buyers

Sentiment

wwwiciscom 7


Brent $8498

WTI $753

Dubai $8395

$40bbl

$45bbl

$50bbl

$55bbl

$60bbl

$65bbl

$70bbl

$75bbl

$80bbl

$85bbl




wwwiciscom 8


1

2

3

4

5



2017

US sanctions

against Iran loom


Venezuela and Libya

Libyan

production

resumes



Market to focus on

US-China tensions

wwwiciscom 9



OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance




NA



Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400


th

ou

san

d b

bl

day




Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 5


wwwiciscom 6


Disruptions or the


Supply amp Demand

Possible impact



Production quotas

OPEC

Inverted

correlation

US Dollar

Buyers attract

more buyers

Sentiment

wwwiciscom 7


Brent $8498

WTI $753

Dubai $8395

$40bbl

$45bbl

$50bbl

$55bbl

$60bbl

$65bbl

$70bbl

$75bbl

$80bbl

$85bbl




wwwiciscom 8


1

2

3

4

5



2017

US sanctions

against Iran loom


Venezuela and Libya

Libyan

production

resumes



Market to focus on

US-China tensions

wwwiciscom 9



OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance




NA



Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400


th

ou

san

d b

bl

day




Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 6


Disruptions or the


Supply amp Demand

Possible impact



Production quotas

OPEC

Inverted

correlation

US Dollar

Buyers attract

more buyers

Sentiment

wwwiciscom 7


Brent $8498

WTI $753

Dubai $8395

$40bbl

$45bbl

$50bbl

$55bbl

$60bbl

$65bbl

$70bbl

$75bbl

$80bbl

$85bbl




wwwiciscom 8


1

2

3

4

5



2017

US sanctions

against Iran loom


Venezuela and Libya

Libyan

production

resumes



Market to focus on

US-China tensions

wwwiciscom 9



OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance




NA



Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400


th

ou

san

d b

bl

day




Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 7


Brent $8498

WTI $753

Dubai $8395

$40bbl

$45bbl

$50bbl

$55bbl

$60bbl

$65bbl

$70bbl

$75bbl

$80bbl

$85bbl




wwwiciscom 8


1

2

3

4

5



2017

US sanctions

against Iran loom


Venezuela and Libya

Libyan

production

resumes



Market to focus on

US-China tensions

wwwiciscom 9



OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance




NA



Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400


th

ou

san

d b

bl

day




Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 8


1

2

3

4

5



2017

US sanctions

against Iran loom


Venezuela and Libya

Libyan

production

resumes



Market to focus on

US-China tensions

wwwiciscom 9



OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance




NA



Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400


th

ou

san

d b

bl

day




Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 9



OPEC member

Pledged cut

July 18 Compliance




NA



Total OPEC 118 1048 1042 10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400


th

ou

san

d b

bl

day




Libya Yes 065 092

Nigeria Yes 182 18

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 10


-1

-05

0

05

1

15

2

25



m bblday

Source IEAICIS

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 11


wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 12

$334

-$942

-$14bbl

-$12bbl

-$10bbl

-$8bbl

-$6bbl

-$4bbl

-$2bbl

$0bbl

$2bbl

$4bbl

$6bbl








wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 13


2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200


wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 14


9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


in t

ho

usa

nd

bb

ld

ay

in m

illio

n b

bl


wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 15


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


in m

illio

n t

on

nes

Crude oil stocks

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 16



consumer and a key


US-CHINA trade war

Buys 2m bblday of

Iranian oil

Global oil demand


Chinese economy

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 17




Asian Oil Demand

27 46 77

Rising but growth

expected to be

down year on year

Chinese Oil Demand

Peaked in April at

96m bblday

Chinese Oil Imports


Source IEA CNPC

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 18











wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 19


Sophie Udubasceanu


Questions

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 20


Ed Cox


London October 2018






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110






Key messages

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom


00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Mill

ion

to

nn




wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom


-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 todate

Ave

rage

cu

mu

lati

ve d

elay

(ye

ars)

Pla

nt

real

ised

co

nst

ruct

ion

tim

e (y

ears

)

Plant start-up year



wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom

0000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

16

-01

-20

12

13

-03

-20

12

09

-05

-20

12

05

-07

-20

12

03

-09

-20

12

30

-10

-20

12

31

-12

-20

12

27

-02

-20

13

25

-04

-20

13

21

-06

-20

13

19

-08

-20

13

15

-10

-20

13

11

-12

-20

13

10

-02

-20

14

08

-04

-20

14

04

-06

-20

14

31

-07

-20

14

26

-09

-20

14

24

-11

-20

14

22

-01

-20

15

20

-03

-20

15

18

-05

-20

15

14

-07

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

05

-11

-20

15

05

-01

-20

16

02

-03

-20

16

28

-04

-20

16

24

-06

-20

16

22

-08

-20

16

18

-10

-20

16

14

-12

-20

16

13

-02

-20

17

11

-04

-20

17

07

-06

-20

17

03

-08

-20

17

29

-09

-20

17

27

-11

-20

17

25

-01

-20

18

23

-03

-20

18

21

-05

-20

18

17

-07

-20

18

12

-09

-20

18

$M

MB




wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


$M

MB

tu







wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom






Asia

Americas

Europe

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom





-500

-

500

1000

1500

2000


Mill

ion

to

nn

es


wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom


53

Annual fall in UK

LNG supply

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

35

4

45


Tonn

es o

f LN

G

$M

MB

tu





wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom


2326 21

181315

19 19

51

45

38 37

2015 2016 2017 2018





European LNG share

US Russia

2017 4 0

2018 2 5

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12O

ct-1

8

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Feb

-21

Ap

r-2

1

Jun

-21

Au

g-2

1

Oct

-21

Dec

-21

Feb

-22

Ap

r-2

2

Jun

-22

Au

g-2

2

Oct

-22

Dec

-22

Feb

-23

Ap

r-2

3

Jun

-23

Au

g-2

3

Pri

ce (

$M

MB





wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom






0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

s


wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 35

Contact us

Ed Cox


Twitter ICISLNG

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 36


Simon Ellis

LNG Analyst

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 37

Agenda










Outlook to 2020

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 38





Procurement methods






Market structure

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 39


24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018

Sho

rt-t

erm

o

f to

tal

Sale

s b

asis

of

fin

al s

ale

(mill

ion

to

nn

es)




wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 40














wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 41








Source JERA


wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 42





wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 44


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018




wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 45


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Rea

lised

pri

ce $

MM

Btu

mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 46


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Mill

ion

to

nn



wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 47






0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020



wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 48



wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 49


000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018E

Q22018E

Del

iver

ed p

rice

$M

MB

tu

Mill

ion

to

nn

es



wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 50


0

1

2

3

4

5






wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 51


0000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

03-01-2017 28-03-2017 20-06-2017 12-09-2017 05-12-2017 01-03-2018 24-05-2018 16-08-2018






PNG LNG outage




wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 52


-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4




2017 expectation


2018 expectation

Mill

ion

to

nn

es




wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 53


Outages






wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 54


wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 55


wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 56







China



South Asia

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 57


0

1

2

3

4

5O

ct-1

8

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

mill

ion

to

nn

es L

NG

per

mo

nth




wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 58









Yes No 14 222


Kuwait Yes No 13 14

Turkey No NA 20 85

India Yes Yes 63 84

Taiwan Yes NA 40 57


wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 59








Bangladesh

Yes No 266 72 BB-

Philippines

Yes No 38 24 BBB-

Vietnam

TBC No 95 21 BB-




wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 60



0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Other East Asia

Middle East

NW Europe

Mediterranean

Americas

South Asia





wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 61

Thank youhellip

Simonellisiciscom

Simon Ellis

+44 207 911 1953

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 62

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 63


Tom Marzec-Manser




Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110



Storage backlash

The new IUK

Groningen gap

Gazprom supplies


Russian pipe dreams

Outlook

Agenda



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110



2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110


2018 so far









Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110



Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110


Storage landscape





























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

























More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110


















More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

















More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110
















More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110











More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110





More blending


































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110
































The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110























The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110


















The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110











The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110


The Russian pincer




Source ENTSOG

25-28mcmd

Approx14mcmd

54mcmd


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110


This winterhellip









hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110



hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110


hellipfurther ahead









wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 84

Thank you

Tom Marzec-Manser




wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 85


Ben Samuel






Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110





Agenda

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 87


wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 88

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 89


wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 90


wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 91


wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 92


wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 93






wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 94


wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 95

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 96

French merger

PEG Nord

Well-connected

2 LNG terminals


TRS


One LNG terminal


Limited trade

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 97

French merger



Grid reinforcement

Capacity increase

Storage reform



wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 98




Regional contagion


wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 99






wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 100






wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 101






wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 102






wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 103


wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 104


Proven gas reserves

above 700bcm


in the Black Sea

Production

around 1011bcm

per year

Black Sea Oil amp

Gas to add

1bcmyear

OMVExxonMobil

to produce

6bcmyear

Output to reach

18-20bcmyear

2018 2020 20201 2025

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 105



implement network

code on balancing

EU Third Energy

Package comes into

force

2011 2016

2015 2019

Five more member

states join

Final deadline for


measures to deliver

balancing code

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 106






wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 107



wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 108


Taxes on domestic

productionLack of

transparency

Cumbersome export

process

Lack of

standardised

contractsreference

prices

Questionable

political will

Obligation to offer

volumes for trade

domestically

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 109

Thank you


wwwiciscom 110

wwwiciscom 110

Date post:	24-Sep-2019
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ICIS Energy Forum - s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com · The key trends Ed Cox Editor, Global LNG, ICIS...

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