IDENTIFYING THE ROLE OF CROP IDENTIFYING THE ROLE OF CROP PRODUCTION IN LAND COVER CHANGE IN PRODUCTION IN LAND COVER CHANGE IN

BRAZIL SINCE 1990BRAZIL SINCE 1990

Elizabeth Barona A. Supervisor: Navin Ramankutty – Glenn HymanCommittee: Oliver Coomes – Raja SenguptaGeography Department - McGill University

August 3 - 2007

IntroductionIntroductionThe expanding global market is changing the agricultural The expanding global market is changing the agricultural landscape of Brazillandscape of Brazil

IntroductionIntroduction

Concerns:Concerns:

Potential displacement of small farmersPotential displacement of small farmers Increased pressure to clear additional lands for Increased pressure to clear additional lands for

food production or grazingfood production or grazing Competition for agricultural landCompetition for agricultural land Increasing deforestation ratesIncreasing deforestation rates

Source: (Geller and Goldenberg 2000)(Geller and Goldenberg 2000)

IntroductionIntroductionStudy AreaStudy Area

Brazil’s territoryBrazil’s territory ~ 850~ 850

Potentially cultivatable Potentially cultivatable landland

320320

Cultivated land – all Cultivated land – all cropscrops

6060

Million hectares

Source: ESRI - IBGE

Source: Minister of Agriculture - Brazil

Research QuestionResearch Question

What is the role of different crops in changing land What is the role of different crops in changing land cover in Brazil since 1990?cover in Brazil since 1990?

How have the geographic patterns of crops in Brazil How have the geographic patterns of crops in Brazil changed since 1990?changed since 1990?

Which crops are driving the change and why?Which crops are driving the change and why? In which physiographic context has this expansion In which physiographic context has this expansion

occurred, and which ecosystems are being affected?occurred, and which ecosystems are being affected?

MethodsMethods

Spatial analysis of agricultural census and survey statistics at municipality Spatial analysis of agricultural census and survey statistics at municipality level since 1990.level since 1990.

Analysis of trade data to identify importance of trade versus domestic Analysis of trade data to identify importance of trade versus domestic consumptionconsumption

Joint spatial analysis of crop distribution maps and physiographic data Joint spatial analysis of crop distribution maps and physiographic data (climate, soils, topographic, agro ecological zones, vegetation and (climate, soils, topographic, agro ecological zones, vegetation and infrastructure)infrastructure)

Agricultural Census data Agricultural Census data and national surveysand national surveys Census data 1996Census data 1996 IBGE data from 1990 to IBGE data from 1990 to

presentpresent

Data sourcesData sources

Trade dataTrade data FAOSTAT, USDA, UNICAFAOSTAT, USDA, UNICA

Physiographic dataPhysiographic data IBGE, TRMM, FAOIBGE, TRMM, FAO

Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results

Objective 1Objective 1

Conduct GIS analysis to produce time Conduct GIS analysis to produce time series maps of crop distributionseries maps of crop distribution

Global data of agriculture Global data of agriculture area and production (You and area and production (You and Wood 2006; Leff et al 2004).Wood 2006; Leff et al 2004).

Crop distributionCrop distribution

IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geographic and IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geographic and Statistics) - national surveyStatistics) - national survey

Data ProcessingData Processing

Administrative Units:Administrative Units: 5 Regions5 Regions 27 States27 States 5563 municipalities5563 municipalities

Crop ProductionCrop Production

Brazil - Crop Distribution 1990 - 2005 Brazil - Crop Distribution 1990 - 2005

Source: IBGE

19901990 19951995 20002000

20052005

1990 – 2005

11.3 – 11.5 Million ha

3.94 – 3.91 Million ha

1990 – 2005

4.6 – 3.7 Million ha

1.93 –1.90 Million ha

1990 – 2005

4.2– 5.8 Million ha

11.4 – 22.9 Million ha

Change in Area Change in percent of total crop area

SOYBEAN 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 5SOYBEAN 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 5

SUGARCANE 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 5SUGARCANE 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 5

Change in Area Change in percent of total crop area

Objective 2 - TradeObjective 2 - Trade

Understand the driving factors behind new Understand the driving factors behind new crop expansioncrop expansion

Drivers of crop expansion in Brazil:Drivers of crop expansion in Brazil:

- Financial support from the agro-industry sector- Financial support from the agro-industry sector

- Trade liberalization (i.e waivers, tax, subsidies)- Trade liberalization (i.e waivers, tax, subsidies)

- International agreements (WTO – World Trade - International agreements (WTO – World Trade Organization)Organization)

Soybean Soybean SugarSugar

Increasing global demandIncreasing global demand

Source: UNICA - 2004

Source: Greenpace - 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Th

ou

san

ds

Met

ric

To

nn

es

Export Domestic

Soybean

Source: FAOSTAT-2006

Domestic = Production - ExportDomestic = Production - Export

Soybean ExportsSoybean Exports

Soybean three markets:Soybean three markets:

- Soybean- Soybean

- Soy oil- Soy oil

- Soy meal- Soy meal

Soybean ExportsSoybean Exports

Source: FAOSTAT - 2006

Soybean ExportsSoybean Exports

Source data: FAOSTAT - 2005

Sugarcane Production

Source: Outlook report - 2005

Sugar ExportsSugar Exports

Sugarcane three markets:Sugarcane three markets:

Raw sugar, Refined sugarRaw sugar, Refined sugar

BioethanolBioethanol

SugarSugar 37%37% 63%63%

EthanolEthanol 85%85% 15%15%

SugarcaneSugarcane 61%61% 39%39%

Domestic ExportDomestic Export

Sugarcane 2004 - 2005Sugarcane 2004 - 2005

Source: UNICA - 2005

Sugarcane - ExportsSugarcane - Exports

Source: UNICA-2006

Objective 3Objective 3

Understand the physiographic context and Understand the physiographic context and ecosystem impacts of the crop expansionecosystem impacts of the crop expansion

The next step The next step

Preliminary ConclusionPreliminary Conclusion Expansion of certain crops such as sugar cane and Expansion of certain crops such as sugar cane and

soybean is causing a northward shift (and soybean is causing a northward shift (and sometimes decreases) of other crops.sometimes decreases) of other crops.

Global demand has an important impact on cropland Global demand has an important impact on cropland expansion in Brazil.expansion in Brazil.

Important ecosystems like Amazonia or Atlantic Important ecosystems like Amazonia or Atlantic forest would be affected by cropland expansion forest would be affected by cropland expansion

Continued work on spatial analysis of crop Continued work on spatial analysis of crop distribution and analysis of impactsdistribution and analysis of impacts

Thank you!Thank you!