1© OECD/NEA 2011
1. IEA/NEA Nuclear Technology Roadmap 20152. NEA/NDD Programmes of Work 2013-20163. R&I Roadmapping: Cooperation with SNETP
Nuclear Development Division
OECD Nuclear Energy Agency
M Deffrennes
SNETP General Assembly – Brussels – 17 March 2015
© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2015
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEA Flagship Publication, Energy Technology Perspectives
6°C Scenario - business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate measures
2°C Scenario - CO2 emissions halved by 2050 through CO2 - price and strong policies
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2014
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Power generation 41% Industry 19%Transport 19% Buildings 13%Other transformation 8%
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Technologies
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% CCS 14%End-use fuel switching 9% Renewables 30%Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% Nuclear 7%
© OECD/IEA 2015
Nuclear since 2010, update of early roadmap
Fukushima Daiichi accident (March 2011)
Impact on energy policies & public acceptance
Safety evaluations and upgrades
Aftermath of financial crisis (2007-2008) and economic crisis
Uranium market depreciation
Shale gas revolution in the US (and US coal prices)
Cost overruns and delays in some FOAK Gen III projects
Lower than anticipated costs for onshore wind and solar PV technologies
© OECD/IEA 2015
Objectives of the roadmap update
Provide an overview of nuclear energy today, and areas of potential growth (regional analysis)
Identify key technological milestones and innovations that can help support ambitious growth in nuclear energy
Identify barriers to nuclear development
Recommendations to policy-makers on how to reach milestones & address barriers
Case studies developed with experts to support recommendations
© OECD/IEA 2015
Nuclear in the 2C Scenario (2DS)
930 GW by 2050 (down from 1200 GW in 2010 RM)
17% share electricity (down from 24% in 2010 RM)
But still a formidable challenge (multiply current capacity by 2.3 in 35 years)
(All capacities are gross capacities)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Nuclear capacity additions
In 2014, 3 construction starts, 5 GW connected! (<< 12 GW/year needed this decade)
Nuclear is not on track to meet 2DS targets
© OECD/IEA 2015
Emissions reduction in the power sector in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2015
Nuclear investment requirements in 2DS, 2012-2050
© OECD/IEA 2015
Financing
Government support key – long term strategy & policy stability (importance of technologically-neutral policies)
Role of export credit agencies, part equity financing
Refinancing strategies once construction completed
Financing in liberalised markets challenging: Cooperative model (Mankala), BOO, CfD,…
Importance of de-risking nuclear projects: “Build on time & to budget”
Long term power purchase agreements
Importance of international nuclear liability conventions, clarify costs of nuclear accidents
© OECD/IEA 2015
Roadmap actions and milestones
© OECD/IEA 2015
Reactor technology evolution
© OECD/IEA 2015
Reactor technology evolution
Safety upgrades & Long Term Operation of existing fleet
Continuous evolution of Gen III/III+ designs:
Small Modular Reactors
Operational aspects
Generation IV (Fast Neutron Reactors)
Cogeneration / non-electric applications
© OECD/IEA 2015
Reactor technology
© OECD/IEA 2015
Key actions for the next 10 years
Offer same level playing field to all low C technologies (electricity markets) - LTO and new built + R&I
Industry to build on time and to budget, FOAK NOAK
Enhance standardisation, harmonise C&S and regulatory requirements
Continue to share information & experience (among regulators, operators, R&D) to improve safety
Public acceptance must be strengthened (post-F; fact-based information)
Develop long-term strategy for radwaste management
© OECD/IEA 2015
DOWNLOAD THE ROADMAP AND ANNEX AT:
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONTACT:
IEA - [email protected]
NEA – [email protected]
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/technology-roadmap-nuclear-energy.html
http://www.oecd-nea.org/pub/techroadmap/
17© OECD/NEA 2011
NEA NDD POWStrategies and Policy Analyses for Nuclear Development
2015-2016
5.1 Innovations in Water-cooled Reactor Technologies
5.2 Support to Other Parts of the OECD and Other Programmes
5.3 Advice to Policy Makers
5.4 Issues and Implications of Extended Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel
5.5 Non-energy Applications of Nuclear
5.6 Nuclear Research and Development in NEA Countries
5.7 Lessons learned from Stakeholders Involvement in Nuclear Projects
18© OECD/NEA 2011
5.6 Nuclear Research and Development in NEA Countries
1. Background
Decreasing Fission R&D budgets in OECD MCs. Mixing FI and FU = negative
impact in the global support for nuclear fission R&D within the global energy R&D.
Need for clarification (actual database not reliable enough).
2. Objectives
Survey to estimate evolution of type, scope and funding for fission R&D over time.
Govt funding + industry (if possible).
Need for developing clear definitions.
Survey will be prepared and send via official channels.
Possibility to make this a continuous updating process for inclusion in the BB.
Extract information to define fission R&D priorities – Roadmapping for NEA MCs
19© OECD/NEA 2011
5.6 Nuclear Research and Development in NEA Countries
3. Work Plan
Phase 1: collection and analysis of data
Survey sent for June 2015 (possible High Level Advisor Panel to be set up),
Replies September/October, Analysis end of 2015
Phase 2: roadmapping for Fission R&D at OECD level
2016 in close cooperation with MCs
4. Collaboration
IEA and EC
SNETP (NUGENIA ESNII NC2I)/IGDTP
20© OECD/NEA 2011
NEA NDD POWEconomics and Data for Nuclear Development
2015-2016
4.1 Uranium: Resources, Production and Demand
4.2 Projected Costs of Generating Electricity NEW BUILT – 2015 Update
4.3 OECD Nuclear Energy Data
4.4 On the Role and Economics of Nuclear Cogeneration in a Low Carbon Energy
Future
4.5 Dealing with System Costs in Decarbonising Electricity Systems: Policy Options
4.6 The Full Costs of Electricity Provision
21© OECD/NEA 2011
THANK YOU !
22© OECD/NEA 2011
BACK UP SLIDES
23© OECD/NEA 2011
IEA/NEA NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Backup Slides
© OECD/IEA 2015
Nuclear fuel cycle
Uranium supply – more than adequate to meet high demand up to 2035 (Red Book)
Potential for laser enrichment to reduce costs
Accident Tolerant Fuel still decades away
Deep Geological Disposal – recommended strategy for managing HLW, what ever the route (once-through or recycling). “Wait and See” not an option
Extended storage needed, but NOT alternative to DGD
Optimising waste management
Importance of “fuel services” to support development
© OECD/IEA 2015
Nuclear fuel cycle
© OECD/IEA 2015
Decommissioning Perceived as an unresolved issue (~ waste)
Issue of costs – and adequate funding
Importance with respect to public acceptance
Technology exists, and can be further developed to reduce decommissioning costs
Also, newer designs take decommissioning into account
© OECD/IEA 2015
Safety and regulation
R&D: Severe accidents, assessment methodologies (PSA) Improved understanding, reduced conservatisms
Enhanced safety requirements (impact LTO prospects?)
Regulation: Importance of strong & independent regulation stressed
Concern of ‘over regulation’ of nuclear industry (multiplication of regulatory requirements) more coordination/harmonisation of requirements for more efficient regulation
Safety culture needs to be enforced across the whole of the nuclear sector and at all level of staff
Importance of peer-reviews (regulators, operators)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Training-capacity building Perceived as one of the key barriers:
In nuclear countries: retirement of a significant share of current workforce in coming decades & in newcomer countries
Many initiatives to identify needed skills, HR requirements –and set up E&T schemes
Role of R&D to attract and train researchers/engineers
Public acceptance Remains a key issue
Particularly sensitive in non-OECD / newcomer countries
Need to provide adequate communication / targeted factual information on risks & benefits
29© OECD/NEA 2011
NEA NDD WORK PROGRAMME 2013-2014
Backup Slides
30© OECD/NEA 2011
NEA NDD POW Economics and Data for Nuclear Development
2013-2014
4.1 Social and Economic Impacts of Nuclear Power
4.2 Uranium: Resources, Production and Demand RED BOOK
4.3 Projected Costs of Generating Electricity – 2014 update (Postponed 2015)
4.4 OECD Nuclear Energy Data BROWN BOOK
4.5 On the Role and Economics of Nuclear Cogen in a Low Carbon Energy Future
4.6 Costs of Nuclear Accidents, Liability Issues and their Impact on Electricity Costs
4.7 Costs of Decommissioning
31© OECD/NEA 2011
NEA NDD POW Strategies and Policy Analyses for Nuclear Development
2013-2014
5.1 Impacts of Fukushima on Nuclear Development Policies
5.2 Climate Change: Assessment of the Vulnerability of Nuclear Power Plants
and Cost of Adaptation
5.3 Review of Nuclear New Build in Relation to Project Structure, Supply Chain
and Financing
5.4 Market Study of SMRs
5.5 Advice to Policy Makers
5.6 Support to Other Parts of the OECD
