If TVET is the answer, what is the question?

Richard Curtain27 August 2011

Youth bulge

• Youth 15-24 years as per cent of adult working age population 15-59 years

• How many wage jobs created each year?

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Country 2010 2015 2020

FSM per cent 39.1 37.3 35.7Youth N 25,000 25,000 25,000

Fiji per cent 29.1 27.8 26.7Youth N 158,000 155,000 151,000

Papua New Guinea per cent 33.8 34.2 33.9Youth N 1,305,000 1,511,000 1,698,000

Samoa per cent 34.0 37.7 38.7Youth N 34,000 40,000 43,000

Solomon Islands per cent 35.7 34.4 33.7Youth N 106,000 118,000 133,000

Timor-Leste per cent 41.6 43.4 40.9Youth N 229,000 291,000 321,000

Tonga per cent 33.3 35.6 36.5Youth N 19,000 21,000 23,000

Vanuatu per cent 35.6 34.2 33.0Youth N 48,000 53,000 58,000

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Region, country & survey year

Melanesia Micronesia Polynesia

Solomon Islands 2007

Kiribati 2009

RMI 2007 Nauru 2007 Samoa 2009 Tuvalu 2007

Age yrs Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

15-19 42 30 16 19 16 8 33 26 10 5 57 16

20-24 64 34 33 38 43 18 84 47 43 26 70 46

25-29 74 34 43 50 65 32 83 58 56 26 83 63

Source: Demographic and Health Survey, specified years

 

Employment rate for young people per cent of each male and female age

group

Youth Illiteracy

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  15-29 yrs 15-19 yrs

DHS country Male Female Male Female

Kiribati 2009 3.7* 3.6 5.5 2.6

Nauru 2007 3.7* 1.2 3.8 1.9

RMI 2007 20.8 11.3 21.1 11.5

Samoa 2009 6.9 1.6 8.4 1.2Solomon Islands 2006-07 25.9 32.2 29.3 24.8

Tuvalu 2007 6.7 2.5 12.4 4.2

 

Youth employment strategy

• A more strategic approach is required to help mainstream gender and youth needs in development processes (ADB, 2009, p19)

• ADB's approach to assisting the Pacific 2010-2014

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A youth employment strategy

• needs to address:(1) supply of appropriate skills, (2) creating enough job openings & (3) ways to link job seekers to jobs.

TVET has a major rôle in (1), little to do with (2) and an important part to play in (3).

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Uncertain economic future

• World Bank President 16 Aug 2011: There's no doubt these are some difficult and dangerous times. ...debt in the United States and the Euro zone trauma have unleashed a wave of worries and uncertainty about the global economy. Adding to that are the high and volatile food prices.

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Uncertain economic future

• Uncertainty in global markets likely to continue for the next decade or longer

• Direct impact on food prices

• Near record food prices mean that the poorest people in the developing world are living on the edge, struggling to cope.

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Food prices fluctuating

• Global food prices are at high levels.• Combined with continued volatility,

this puts the poorest people in the developing world at continued risk, World Bank Food Price Watch, 15 August 2011.

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More of the same

• The Food Watch report warns that global food stocks remain low and sudden rises & falls in the prices of sugar, rice and petroleum products are expected in the months ahead.

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Sustainable development

• The global economic crisis has seen the Pacific lose ground in its efforts to reduce poverty. ...an additional 50,000 people will be living below the poverty line in the Pacific Islands in 2010 because of the global economic crisis. Many of the non-poor have also seen their livelihoods deteriorate (ADB, 2009, p 8).

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Sustainable development

• Natural hazards, climate change, and deterioration of the environment pose further development challenges. Declining agricultural productivity as a result of the increasing salinity of soils and drought, and declining fish stocks could pose a risk to food security in the region (ADB, 2009, pp 8-9).

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Sustainable development

• Food security key issue – support for agriculture & fishing to replace imported food

• To lift income generating opportunities requires a number of supporting measures - access to savings, access to credit, financial literacy, mentoring & skills.

• Training is only part of the answer14

Sustainable development

• An integrated set of measures within a country are needed to lower people's vulnerability to food price increases.

• These measures need to include ways to improve commercial agriculture, raise food security, reduce income poverty & lessen the effects of climate change

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For More InformationFor More Information

Richard Curtain richard@curtain-consulting.net.au

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