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Simulation

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Dosen Pembina:

Danang Junaedi

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In DSS, simulation refers to a technique for conducting experiments with a computer on a model of a management system.

Major Characteristics of Simulation– Simulation imitates reality and capture its richness– Simulation is a technique for conducting experiments

It can describe and/or predict the characteristics of a given system under different circumstances.

– Simulation is a descriptive not normative tool– Simulation is often used to solve very complex, risky

problems

Simulation

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What is Simulation

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Problem: Siemens Solar Industries (SSI), the world’s largest maker of solar electric

products, suffered continuous problems in poor material flow, unbalanced resource use, bottlenecks in throughput & schedule delays.

Solution: SSI built a cleanroom contamination-control technology.

The simulation provided a virtual laboratory for engineers to experiment with various configurations before the physical systems were constructed.

Results: SSI improved their manufacturing process significantly. The cleanroom facility saved SSI over $75 million/ year.

Case : Simulation Saves Siemens Millions

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Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation

• Slow and costly construction process

• Cannot transfer solutions and inferences to solve other problems

• So easy to sell to managers, may miss analytical solutions

• Software is not so user friendly

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• Set up a model of a real system and conduct repetitive experiments1. Problem Definition2. Construction of the Simulation Model3. Testing and Validating the Model4. Design of the Experiments5. Conducting the Experiments6. Evaluating the Results7. Implementation

Simulation Methodology

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• Probabilistic Simulation– Discrete distributions : systems monitor the

systems each time a change in its state takes place– Continuous distributions : system monitor changes

in a state of system at descret points in time– Probabilistic simulation via Monte Carlo technique – Time Dependent versus Time Independent Simulation– Simulation Software– Visual Simulation– Object-oriented Simulation

Simulation Types

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Simulation Development

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Some Applications of Simulation

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Visual Spreadsheets

• User can visualize models and formulas with influence diagrams

• Not cells--symbolic elements

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Visual Interactive Modeling (VIM) and Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS)

• Visual interactive modeling (VIM)

Also called– Visual interactive problem solving– Visual interactive modeling– Visual interactive simulation

• Use computer graphics to present the impact of different management decisions.

• Can integrate with GIS • Users perform sensitivity analysis• Static or a dynamic (animation) systems

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Generated Image of Traffic at an Intersection from the Orca Visual Simulation Environment (Courtesy Orca

Computer, Inc.)

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Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS)

• Decision makers interact with the simulated model and watch the results over time

• Visual interactive models and DSS – Queueing

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Monte Carlo Simulation

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Monte Carlo Technique

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Step 1. Probability Distribution

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Step 2. Building a Cumulative Probability Distribution

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Step 3. Setting Random Number Interval

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Step 4. Generating Random Numbers

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Step 5. Simulating the Experience

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Simulation of Queuing Problem

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Queuing Problem

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Dist 1. Interval Arrival

Times

Dist 2. Unloading

Times

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Example

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Example-contd : Some Simple Statistic

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Simulation and Inventory Analysis The Basic Model

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Referensi

1. Dr. Mourad YKHLEF,2009,Decision Support System-Simulation, King Saud University

2. Richard K. Min.2002.Information Systems for Management. OUR LADY OF THE LAKE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

3. Insoo Hwang.-. Modeling and Analysis. Department of MIS, Jeonju university

4. Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson.2001. Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems 6th edition. Prentice Hall