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1 IF-UTAMA 1 Forecasting Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting by Time Horizon
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Page 1: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

1

IF-UTAMA 1

Forecasting

Sesi 11-12

Dosen Pembina :

Danang Junaedi

IF-UTAMA 2

Introduction

IF-UTAMA 3

Definition

IF-UTAMA 4

Types of Forecasting by Time Horizon

Page 2: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

2

IF-UTAMA 5

Forecasting Approaches

IF-UTAMA 6

Overview of Qualitative Method

IF-UTAMA 7

Overview of Quantitative Method

IF-UTAMA 8

Time Series

Page 3: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

3

IF-UTAMA 9

Time Series Component

IF-UTAMA 10

Overview of Trend Component

IF-UTAMA 11

Overview of Seasonal Component

IF-UTAMA 12

Overview of Cyclical Component

Page 4: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

4

IF-UTAMA 13

Overview of Random Component

IF-UTAMA 14

Time Series Forecasting

IF-UTAMA 15

Stationary Forecasting Model

IF-UTAMA 16

Stationary Forecasting Model

Page 5: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

5

IF-UTAMA 17

Method for Stationary Time Series

IF-UTAMA 18

Method for Stationary Time Series

IF-UTAMA 19

Example

IF-UTAMA 20

Example

Page 6: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 21

Example

IF-UTAMA 22

Example

IF-UTAMA 23

Example

IF-UTAMA 24

Example

Page 7: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

7

IF-UTAMA 25

Method for Stationary Time Series

IF-UTAMA 26

Method for Stationary Time Series

IF-UTAMA 27

Method for Stationary Time Series

IF-UTAMA 28

Method for Stationary Time Series

Page 8: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 29

Example

IF-UTAMA 30

Exponential Smoothing Method Trlationship with Simple Moving Average

IF-UTAMA 31

Example

IF-UTAMA 32

Example

Page 9: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 33

Example

IF-UTAMA 34

Example

IF-UTAMA 35

Performance of Forecasting

Methods

IF-UTAMA 36

Performance of Forecasting Methods

Page 10: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 37

Example

IF-UTAMA 38

Example

IF-UTAMA 39

Linear Trend Time Series

Methods

IF-UTAMA 40

Linear Trend Time Series Methods

Page 11: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 41

Linear Trend Time Series Methods

IF-UTAMA 42

Example

IF-UTAMA 43

Example

IF-UTAMA 44

Linear Trend Time Series Methods

Page 12: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 45

Linear Trend Time Series Methods

IF-UTAMA 46

Example

IF-UTAMA 47

Example

IF-UTAMA 48

Trend, Seasonal and Cyclical

Time Series

Page 13: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 49

General Time Series Models

IF-UTAMA 50

Additive and Multiplicative Model

IF-UTAMA 51

Forecasting with Trend and Seasonal Components

IF-UTAMA 52

Example

Page 14: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 53

Example

IF-UTAMA 54

Example

IF-UTAMA 55

Example

IF-UTAMA 56

Example

Page 15: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 57

Example

IF-UTAMA 58

Example

IF-UTAMA 59

Example

IF-UTAMA 60

Example

Page 16: Sesi 10-11 Forecasting - WordPress.com · 2010. 11. 24. · Sesi 11-12 Dosen Pembina : Danang Junaedi IF-UTAMA 2 Introduction IF-UTAMA 3 Definition IF-UTAMA 4 Types of Forecasting

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IF-UTAMA 61

Example

IF-UTAMA 62

IF-UTAMA 63

Referensi

1.1. Dr. Dr. MouradMourad YKHLEFYKHLEF,2009,,2009,Decision Decision

Support SystemSupport System--ForecastingForecasting, King , King

SaudSaud UniversityUniversity


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