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http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 77 [email protected] International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 6, Issue 10, Oct 2015, pp. 77-96, Article ID: IJCIET_06_10_007 Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=10 ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316 © IAEME Publication IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON ENVIRONMENT - A REVIEW A. Kalimuthu Country Director, Water for People, New Delhi and Research Scholar, Faculty of Agriculture and Animal husbandry, Gandhigram Rural Institute (Deemed University), Gandhigram, Dindigul, TN, India Dr. T. T. Ranganathan Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Animal husbandry Gandhigram Rural Institute (Deemed University), Gandhigram, Dindigul, TN, India ABSTRACT Earth’s environment is very sensitive and dynamic. Generation of greenhouse gases more than what the nature can bear results in global warming (climate change). A comprehensive review of impact of global warming on the environment is presented. It will be helpful for researchers and planners. Review stresses the urgency to check and control the greenhouse gases emission to save the biosphere in the earth planet. Key words: Global Warming, Climate Change, Environmental Impact Cite this Article: A. Kalimuthu and Dr. T. T. Ranganathan. Impacts of Global Warming on Environment-A Review. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 6(10), 2015, pp. 77-96. http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=10 1. INTRODUCTION Global warming indicates an average increase in the earth’s temperature, which in turn results in climate change. Average temperature of earth is about 59 0 F (15 0 C). During the last century, the average temperature has risen by about 1 0 F. By 2100, it is believed that the temperature rise would be between 2.5 and 10 0 F. Rise in temperature will cause dramatic changes such as rise in sea level, changes in rainfall patterns, wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife and humans. 1.1 Green house gases and green house effect The trapping of energy from the sun by certain gases in atmosphere leading to rise in earth’s temperature is termed as green house effect. Gases such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane act as the trap. These gases absorb and
Transcript
Page 1: Ijciet 06 10_007

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 77 [email protected]

International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Volume 6, Issue 10, Oct 2015, pp. 77-96, Article ID: IJCIET_06_10_007

Available online at

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=10

ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316

© IAEME Publication

IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON

ENVIRONMENT - A REVIEW

A. Kalimuthu

Country Director, Water for People, New Delhi and Research Scholar,

Faculty of Agriculture and Animal husbandry, Gandhigram Rural Institute

(Deemed University), Gandhigram, Dindigul, TN, India

Dr. T. T. Ranganathan

Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Animal husbandry

Gandhigram Rural Institute (Deemed University),

Gandhigram, Dindigul, TN, India

ABSTRACT

Earth’s environment is very sensitive and dynamic. Generation of

greenhouse gases more than what the nature can bear results in global

warming (climate change). A comprehensive review of impact of global

warming on the environment is presented. It will be helpful for researchers

and planners. Review stresses the urgency to check and control the

greenhouse gases emission to save the biosphere in the earth planet.

Key words: Global Warming, Climate Change, Environmental Impact

Cite this Article: A. Kalimuthu and Dr. T. T. Ranganathan. Impacts of Global

Warming on Environment-A Review. International Journal of Civil

Engineering and Technology, 6(10), 2015, pp. 77-96.

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=10

1. INTRODUCTION

Global warming indicates an average increase in the earth’s temperature, which in

turn results in climate change. Average temperature of earth is about 590F (15

0C).

During the last century, the average temperature has risen by about 10F. By 2100, it is

believed that the temperature rise would be between 2.5 and 100F. Rise in temperature

will cause dramatic changes such as rise in sea level, changes in rainfall patterns, wide

range of impacts on plants, wildlife and humans.

1.1 Green house gases and green house effect

The trapping of energy from the sun by certain gases in atmosphere leading to rise in

earth’s temperature is termed as green house effect. Gases such as water vapour,

carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane act as the trap. These gases absorb and

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reflect infra-red waves radiated by earth. By doing so, these gases conserve heat on

the earth crust as in green house.

Greenhouse effect has both advantage and disadvantage like a knife with two

edges. Certain minimum green house effect is required to keep environment suitable

for living. If it does not exist, earth would be cooled, and ice would cover the earth

from pole to pole. But, if it is concentrated, it could make the earth warmer than

usual. Even a little extra warming may cause problems for human, plants and animals.

1.2. Greenhouse gases

In the environment, greenhouse gases occur either i) naturally or ii) from human

activities. The most abundant greenhouse gas is Carbon dioxide and is derived from

the emission from volcanic eruption, respiration of animals, burning and decay of

organic matter such as plants. Photosynthesis by plants and ocean absorb carbon

dioxide. Human activities like burning of fossil fuel, solid wastes, wood and wood

products, driving vehicles and generating electricity increase the release of carbon

dioxide. Deforestation reduced the absorption of carbon dioxide by Photosynthesis.

Human activities have caused release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere much faster

than absorption by natural processes. In 1750, carbon dioxide concentration was 281

molecules per million molecules of air (parts per million, ppm). Today atmospheric

carbon dioxide concentrations are 368 ppm. Increase is 31% (Mariappan, 2014)

Methane traps 20 times more heat than carbon dioxide. It is emitted during the

production and transport of coal, natural gases and oil. It is also emitted from rotting

organic waste in sand fills, by the cows as a by product of digestion. Since 1750, the

amount of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled.

Nitrous oxide traps 300 times more heat than carbon dioxide. Burning fossil fuel

and ploughing farm release nitrous oxide. Since 1750, its level increased by 17%.

Hydrocarbons formed from the manufacture of foams, coolants such as

chlorofluorocarbons used in refrigerators. 1n 2000, scientists discovered a new

greenhouse gas called trifluoromethyl sulpur penta fluoride. It can trap more

effectively than all other greenhouse gases (Mariappan, 2014).

2. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON VARIOUS SECTORS

The impacts of climate change can be classified into six key sectors such as

Agriculture, Health, Water Resource, Forest, Coastal Ecosystem and Biodiversity.

The expected types of issues in each sector are listed in Table 1.

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Table 1 Major Sectors and Climate Change Issues

Impacts due to climate change on Type of Issues

Agriculture

High demand of water for irrigation and

inadequacy

Low crop yield and food security

Water Resource

Fresh water depletion, drought and

unavailability

Water quality deterioration

Increased conflicts for water

Health

Weather related mortality and morbidity

Infectious diseases

Reparatory Illness due to air quality

Forest

Change in forest composition

Shift in geographic range of forests

Forest health and productivity

Coastal System

Erosion of beaches

Inundate coastal lands

Higher cost to protect coastal communities

Biodiversity (Species and Natural

Areas)

Shift in ecological zones

Loss of habitat and species

Source: Presentation made by Mr. Atiq in Plan Asia Meet in Bangkok (2010)

2.1. Agriculture sector

Agriculture is the backbone of majority of the rural households and attached urban

population in developing countries like India. Hence, preparing the agricultural sector

to adapt to the negative effects of climate variabilities may be necessary to ensure

food security for the country and to protect the livelihood of rural households.

Adaptation to climate change is an effective measure at the farm level, which can

reduce climate vulnerability by making rural households and communities better able

to prepare themselves and their farming to changes and variability in climate,

avoiding projected damages and supporting them in dealing with adverse events

(IPCC, 2001).

Agriculture is inherently sensitive to climate conditions and is one of the most

vulnerable sectors to the risks and impact of global climate change (Parry et al.,

1999). The climatic variables (rainfall, temperature, humidity and evapotranspiration)

and seasonal characteristics play a significant role in the regular agricultural activities.

The agricultural sector is vulnerable to climate change physically and economically.

Due to climate change, agricultural supply will be affected, especially relative prices

of agricultural commodities and consequently reallocation of resources within the

agricultural sector, altering the structure of the economies of numerous countries and

the international trade pattern (Deke et al., 2001).

In developing countries, where production is highly rain dependent and climate

variability and change have been and continue to be the principal source of

fluctuations in global food production (Oseniet al., 2011). The agricultural sector has

several links with other sectors. Globally, agriculture sector is the largest user of

water, so any changes in water availability through precipitation, groundwater storage

and changes in evapotranspiration as the Earth’s temperature rises, will have

significant effects on water availability for agriculture activities (Hutchinson et al.,

2013). It will also have effects on the potential start of the crop cycle as well as on

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the length of the crop cycle. In addition, agriculture competes intensely for water

with the tourism, industrial and residential sectors. The availability of water resource

will be the deciding factors, for allocation of water to the agricultural sector and also

the public sector allocation of water based on perceived importance of water to each

sector in the country. The utmost rainfall variability is considered to be an important

cause of drought. The recurrent drought and its severity accelerate to increase the

vulnerability and poverty (Rakibet al., 2014).

The climate change is extremely affecting and altering the distribution, quality of

natural resources and the related livelihoods of the people. Due to change in climate,

the demand for drinking water and for irrigation is increasing and it also increases

competition and conflict among the rural, urban and the industrial users. This may

lead to sustainability crises for requirement of food, fodder and fuel wood. Change in

temperature and rainfall pattern may also alter the distribution of disease vectors

carrying malaria, dengue, diarrhoea, bird flu etc. as well as rodents and other pest

problems (Anita et al., 2012).

More and more, anthropogenic activities are having adverse impacts on the

Earth’s climate (Hutchinson et al., 2013). As a result, all countries are now trying to

take joint actions to define ways to reducing the negative impacts as well as preparing

local communities to adapt in order to cope with, or even benefit from the projected

climate change.

The review of existing climate change related study results indicates that the

effects of climate change will not be uniform across the globe (Gbetibouoet al., 2005).

Developed countries will be less affected by climate change whereas the developing

countries are the most affected from the negative consequences of global warming

and the effects of climate change are predicted to be greater, although they have

contributed relatively little to the cause of global warming.

In the changing climate scenarios, the climate risk assessment to the agricultural

ecosystems holds the key to understand future food security situations. The existing

practices of climate risk assessment are quite broad. There is a greater need for area

and crop specific assessment and these in depth assessments will help to define an

actionable framework for developing adaptation strategies at local levels.

The agricultural land is relatively more fragile and requires replenishment of

nutrients lost through crop production. This loss of nutrients from the topsoil is

compensated through animal residues (Raina et al., 2011). Also, it is evident that the

farmers using improved seeds, fertilizer, mechanization and irrigation in years with

favorable rainfall gain a good agriculture return. The improved adaptation techniques

include improved seeds like hybrid and open pollinated varieties, timely planting,

proper spacing, timely weeding and harvesting. Varying site factors like altitude,

slope direction, temperature, humidity, rainfall, availability of irrigation and distance

from the snowline or plains are the driving force for the diversification of agriculture

into various farming situations (Raina et al., 2011), the adaptation techniques should

take care of all these factors to gain a better result.

The choice of adaptation methods by farmers depends on various social, economic

and environmental factors. The study in the field of climate change coping

mechanism indicate that farmers’ awareness, investment in new heat tolerant

varieties, crop insurance, social awareness and protection programs may be some

important aspects of the adaptation to climate change (Schlenkeret al., 2010). It is

also important to have correct and apt knowledge about the type and extent of

adaptation methods being practiced by farmers and assessing the need for further

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advances in existing adaptation practices. Hence, understanding how farmers perceive

changes in climate and what factors shape their adaptive behavior, especially with

respect to various agro-ecological zones in India will be a great contribution for the

agriculture sector in the country.

2.2. Water Resources

In general, the availability of fresh water in a region (in terms of surface, sub-surface,

ground water and glaciers) is above 1700 cu.m/ capita / annum is considered as

“Satisfactory Level” and the level falls between 1000 to 1700 cu.m/ capita/ annum is

considered as “Stressed Stage” and less than 1000 cu.m/ capita/ annum is considered

as “Water Scarcity Region”. The available data around fresh water in India indicates

that the availability is drastically going down (Figure 1). The data shows that during

1955’s per capita availability of fresh water was around 5277 m3 per annum and in the

year 2000, the available scared resource has come down to 2200 m3 per annum. The

projection is that the availability will go below 1000 m3 per annum per capita in 25

years, it means, India is heading towards water scarcity.

Source: Central Water Commission (2014)

Figure 1 Availability of renewable fresh water in India

Though it is difficult to state the exact percentage, there is a significant

contribution of climate change for the changes in fresh water availability in the

country. Ever increase population growth and improved standard of living demands

high quantum of fresh water for consumption, whereas the fresh water level is keep

going down, this mismatch would result conflicts.

The fresh water demand for Agriculture sector to ensure food security for the

growing population and also demand from the Industrial sector is also further

aggravate the situation. The data on fresh water utilization indicates that nearly 90%

of the available resources are being consumed by Agriculture sector, 6 % by the

Industries and the remaining 4% is by the Domestic sector including for drinking

(Figure 2).

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Source: DDWS (2008)

Figure 2 Fresh water usage in India

There are many research / studies going on in India and aboard around the ground

water depletion, as per the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

Satellites data of NASA, at an average rate of 4 cm a year is being depleted in north-

western India, this works out to be 18 cu.km of water a year. Over a period of 6 years

of study indicates that the depletion was 109 cu.km

The lowering of ground water level force the community/farmers to go for deeper

aquifer to meet their fresh water needs for drinking and agriculture. The farmers

spent a huge sum to find a deep source and while go for deep aquifer, they encounter

many water quality issues as well. Presence of excess chemicals /minerals higher

than the prescribed limit by World Health Organization (WHO) /Government make

the water unfit for drinking and use for agriculture. The WHO data shows that over

exploitation of ground water necessitate to go for deeper aquifers, result a major water

quality issues such as Arsenic, Fluoride etc., over 13 million people in 4 states in

India are at risk due to arsenic contamination and 66 million people in 17 states in

India are at risk due to Fluoride contamination. The table 2 lists various water quality

issues prevailing in India.

Table 2 Water quality issues in India

Water Quality Problem Remarks

Fluoride The population at risk is estimated to be around 66 million

in 17 states

Arsenic The population at risk is estimated to be more than 13 million in 4

states

Iron Around 1.5 lacks habitations spread over 16 states in the country are

found to be affected

Nitrate

Nitrate is emerging as a major problem in the States of

Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Uttar

Pradesh

Brackishness

A major problem in parts of the States of Gujarat,

Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil

Nadu, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh

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2.3. Temperature and Precipitation

The figure 3 indicates that there is considerable increase in the mean temperature,

particularly in the last few decades. There are considerable impacts due to rise in the

mean temperature, especially on the water related aspects. For example, increase in

temperature results more evaporation loss in the water stored in the pond/ tank/

reservoir, thus affects the prolong availability of water for irrigation. Rise in

temperature result demands more water for crop production and also for human

consumption.

Source: AR4, IPCC (2007)

Figure 3 Projected global mean temperature rise

The rise in temperature and precipitation will result in many outbreaks of diseases.

Also, increate in temperature will force the living organism to shift or move and also

extinct. The figure 4 depicts the increase and decrease Annual Mean Temperature

across the country for a period of 60 years from 1951 to 2010.

Source: Indian Meteorological Department (2013)

Figure 4 Annual mean temperature trend in India for 1951 - 2010

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Figures 5 and 6 clearly indicate that the number of hot and rainy days will go up

in various regions globally and it would lead to many issues to the human being. It is

essential to validate these changes in temperature and rainy days projection for local

level to work out an area specific mitigation and coping strategy. There should

detailed strategies to facilitate the vulnerable communities and marginal farmers to

adapt to the changes such as increased number or hot days or number of heavy rainy

days to cope with the change in climate conditions. The 60 years annual rainfall trend

(1951-2010) given the map by IMD indicates that there is an increase and decrease of

rainfall trend across the country and a few locations the trend the very significant at

95%.

Source: AR4, IPCC (2007)

Figure 5 Projected numbers of hot days due to climate change

Figure 6 Projected numbers of rainy days due to climate change

Also, analysis of for the past 100 years average rainfall data of India, especially

three and five years moving average reveals that there is mild shift the quantum of

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rainfall received and in the one decade, the data is almost equal to average annual

rainfall and number of rainy years over the average is reducing compared to the past

(Figure 8). The data from 1916 to 1964 and 1965 to 2000 indicates that number of

rainy year over the national average is reduced in the later segment. It is a clear

indication that there is change in the rainfall patter in India. The same is confirmed

the analysis and annual rainfall trend released by IMD for a period of 60 years from

1951 to 2010.

Source: Indian Meteorological Department (2012)

Figure 7 Average annual rainfall moving average of India

Source: Indian Meteorological Department (2013)

Figure 8 Annual rainfall trend for 1951 - 2010

0

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Rai

nfa

ll in

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100 Years Rainfall and Moving Average Trend

Annual Rainfall Annual Average Rainfall 3 Years Moving Average 5 years moving Average

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2.4. Health

The change in climate threatens health and well-being of human being in multiple

ways, including through more extreme weather events, wildfires and decreased air

quality, diseases transmitted by insects, food and water. Climate change impacts on

human health can be divided into direct and indirect effects. The extreme events such

as droughts, flood, heat waves, wind storms, might case direct health issues and

indirect effects may arise from the disruption of natural systems, causing infectious

disease, malnutrition, food and water borne illness, and increased air pollution.

Increases in heat waves will increase the number of deaths and illnesses occurring

from heat stress, heatstroke, cardiovascular disease and kidney disease. Increases in

temperature and rainfall are expected to contribute to increased outbreaks of cholera,

diarrhoea, salmonella, campylobacter, enteric infections, and rotavirus.

Climate change would aggravate over the next few decades include heat stress,

vector borne diseases (such as malaria, dengue fever and yellow fever); extreme

weather events; air pollution; communicable diseases (such as HIV/AIDS, TB and

cholera) and non-communicable diseases (such as cardio-vascular and respiratory

diseases). Climate change could also have deleterious effects on mental and

occupational health, and its adverse impacts would be worsened by food insecurity,

hunger and malnutrition.

Sea level rise is already putting low-lying coastal populations at risk, and intense

rainfall events are projected to increase with climate change. This increases the risk of

flooding, which can introduce chemicals, pesticides, and heavy metals into water

systems and increase the risk of water-borne disease outbreak. Droughts, which are

expected to become more common, can destroy crops and grazing land, reduce the

quantity and quality of water resources, and increase risk of fire.

As per IPCC report, these impacts of climate change on human health and social

wellbeing are varied and occur through many different pathways. Among the key

risks are:

Death, injury, ill-health or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and island

states

Breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water

supply, and health and emergency services

Higher mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat and

Food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems, particularly for poorer

populations.

Some the above mentioned extreme weather related health issues can be

summarized in table 6.

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Table 6 Diseases projection due to climate change

Floods and storms Drought Fire

Increased or decreased vector (e.g.

mosquito) abundance (e.g. if

breeding sites are washed away).

Increased risk of respiratory and

diarrhoeal diseases.

Drowning

Injuries

Health effects associated with

population displacement.

Impacts on Food supply

Mental Health Impacts

Changes in abundance of

vectors that breeds in dried up

river beds.

Food shortage

Illness

Malnutrition

Increased risk of infections

Death (starvation)

Health impacts associated with

population displacement

Burns and smoke

inhalation

Soil erosion and increased

risks of land slides

Increased mortality and

morbidity

Increased risk of hospital

and emergency

admissions

Source: www.sanbi.org/climatechangefactsheet(2013)

2.5. Forest

Forests play a critical role in maintaining a varied range of delicate relationships with

nature and its ecosystems. Forests are highly sensitive to climate change. Climate is

one of the most important determinants of vegetation patterns globally and thus

climate change can significantly alter the distribution, structure and ecology of

forests. Forest type distribution, carbon stocks or emissions and climate change are

interlinked processes. Impacts on the wellbeing of forests likely to be caused by

climate change will therefore have a dramatic effect. According to the latest

projections by UNEP (2015), changes in climate will mean that by 2050 the world’s

ecosystems, including its all-important forests, will be releasing more carbon than

they are capable of absorbing. Increase in temperatures might force many living

organisms to migrate to cooler areas, while new organisms arrive. Such movements

involve all species, including plants. Various studies have noted that a number of bird,

tree, scrub and herb species have migrated by an average of six kilometres every ten

years, or have sought higher altitudes of between one and four metres (Parmesan et

al.,2003).

The present environmental situation is heavily influenced by climate change and it

could lead to a massive destruction of forests and the extinction of countless species.

For example, modeling focusing on the Amazon region has indicated that 43 per cent

of 193 representative plant species could become non-viable by the year 2095 due to

the fact that changes in climate will have fundamentally altered the composition of

species habitats (UNEP/Miles et al. 2004).

Changes in the growth and regeneration capacity of many tree species can be

possible, even a mild increases of as little as 1°C in mean annual air temperature.

This mild increase in air temperature can significantly alter the function and

composition of forests and also possibly can cause forest cover to disappear

completely. Since the forest is water dependent, either the extreme drought or water

logging will force the forest cover decline. The changes in the temperature and

rainfall might influence the change in soil water availability; as a result tropical

forests existence and survival become an issue. Decreases in soil moisture may

accelerate forest loss in many areas where water availability is already marginal. In

other areas, increasing precipitation may be more than adequate to meet increased

evaporative demand and may even lead to erosion.

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Forests are particularly sensitive to climate change, because the long life-span of

trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes. Adaptation

measures for forestry need to be planned well in advance of expected changes in

growing conditions because the forests regenerated today will have to cope with the

future climate conditions of at least several decades, often even more than 100 years

(Marcus et al.,2008).

2.6. Coastal Area

Worldwide, the human activities are transforming natural ecosystems. Certain

ecosystem types are being lost, while completely new ones are emerging in their place

(Ellis et al., 2008). “Emerging” or “novel” ecosystems have two key characteristics

(Hobbs et al., 2006): (1) they contain new combinations of species, which can change

how the ecosystem functions and (2) they result from human activities but

nevertheless can persist without continued intervention by humans. Novel ecosystems

often differ considerably from either wild or intensively managed systems, for

example in fishery production, shoreline erosion control and maintenance of water

quality.

Gradual changes in environmental conditions such as water temperature do not

necessarily produce gradual responses in the ecosystem - a small change can cross a

“tipping point”, producing a sudden or large shift in the system. Such non-linear

responses to a stressor can occur either because (1) the change pushes a key species

over a threshold in its physiological tolerances or (2) the stressor affects species

differently and disrupts the complex interactions among them. Such complex

relationships in ecosystems mean that a change is often difficult to reverse once it has

occurred. A classic example involves submerged vegetation. Loss of sea grasses due

to nutrient pollution destabilizes the underlying sediment and allows it to be mixed up

into the water column. This suspended sediment in turn reduces light and interferes

with reestablishment of grasses, even if nutrient loading is reduced well below its

original level (Schefferet al.,2001).

The review of IPCC document on Coastal system and low lying areas indicates

that Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms. Annually, about

120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000

people from 1980 to 2000. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level

contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with

considerable local and regional variation due to other factors. Anticipated climate

related changes include:

An accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100 (Fig.1.9)

A further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C. Increases in sea surface

temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching

events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatization

by corals

An intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and

storm surges and

Altered precipitation/run-off and ocean acidification.

Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has

serious implications for the wellbeing of societies dependent on the coastal

ecosystems for goods and services. Increased flooding and the degradation of

freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people,

and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change.

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Source: AR4, IPCC (2007)

Figure 9 Expected global mean sea level raise

As per EPA, one of the most obvious effects of climate change on human made

structures is sea level rise, which causes destruction through erosion and the intrusion

of salt water into the water table. According to the IPCC (2001) and (Church et al.,

2001), it is very likely that warming will contribute significantly to future sea level

rise, through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss of land ice. Human

habitat could be affected significantly, as nearly 20 per cent of the world’s population

lives within 30 km of the sea, and approximately 40 per cent live within 100 km of the

coast (Cohen et al., 1997 and Gommeset al., 1998). As indicated by Nurse et al.

(2001), low-lying coastal regions and islands in particular are the most vulnerable to

rising seas. The problem may be even more severe in the future as coastal populations

worldwide expand. The major effects of a rise in sea level are the loss of land due to

inundation and erosion, increased flooding during storm surges and rainstorms, and

the intrusion of saltwater into aquifers, estuaries and wetlands (Tituset al., 1993).

Coastal ecosystems are of vital socio-economic and ecological importance to humans.

A 1997 study estimated the total value of ecosystem services provided by coastal

marine habitats to be in excess of 14 trillion U.S. dollars per year: over 40% of the

world’s total (Robert et al., (1997). Therefore, understanding the future of coastal

ecosystems has major implications for human society.

2.7. Biodiversity

Biological diversity deals with the degree of nature’s variety in the biosphere.

Biological diversity or biodiversity, encompasses the variety of all life on earth.

Biodiversity manifests itself at three levels: Species diversity which refers to the

numbers and kinds of living organisms. Genetic diversity refers to genetic variation

within species and ecosystem diversity which denotes the variety of habitats,

biological communities and ecological processes (MoE&F, GoI). During the last

century, population growth, market pressures and new technological development in

agriculture have influenced the pattern of agricultural development tending towards

agriculture intensification, (i.e. increasing scales of monoculture production, intensive

mechanical tillage, irrigation and the use of synthetic fertilizer, pest control agents and

a restricted diversity of crop and livestock varieties), often leading to natural

resources degradation. Biodiversity losses can be attributed to the resource demands

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of our rapidly growing human population. In modern times, the human population has

increased from about one billion in 1900 to almost six billion today. Like other living

beings, we use natural resources to survive, but we are far more resourceful and

destructive to other life-forms than any species previously known.

Climate change, on account of a buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

leading to global warming, poses significant threat to biodiversity, ecosystems, and

the goods and services they provide. There are indications that the projected changes

in temperature and CO2 concentration may alter growth, reproduction and host-

pathogen relationships in both plants and animals.

The multiple components of climate change are anticipated to affect all the levels

of biodiversity. A study of 9650 inter specific systems, including pollinators and

parasites, suggested that around 6300 species could disappear following the extinction

of their associated species (Kohet al., 2004). In addition, for many species, the

primary impact of climate change may be mediated through effects on synchrony with

species food and habitat requirements. Climate change has led to phenological shifts

in flowering plants and insect pollinators, causing mismatches between plant and

pollinator populations that lead to the extinctions of both the plant and the pollinator

with expected consequences on the structure of plant–pollinator networks (Rafferty, et

al., 2010).

Review of IPCC report on climate change and biodiversity reveals that at Global

level, the human activities have caused and continue to cause a loss in biodiversity

through land use, soil and water pollution, degradation/desertification, air pollution,

habitat fragmentation, exploitation of species and introduction of non- native species

etc. Increase in land and ocean surface temperature, changes in the spatial and

temporal patterns of precipitation, rise in sea level etc. are affecting the timing of

reproduction of animals and plants, migration of animals, length of growing season,

species distribution and the frequency of pest and disease outbreaks. Also, climate

change is projected to affect individual organisms, population, species distributions,

and ecosystem composition and function both directly and indirectly. Varies climate

related changes will disturb and increase the rate of species loss and create

opportunities for the establishment of new species. The impact of sea level rise on

coastal ecosystem will vary regionally and will depend on the erosion processes from

the sea and depositional processes from the land. Hence, climate change impacts on

the biodiversity are expected to be huge.

3. SUMMARY

It is evident that impacts of climate change are cutting across all major sectors,

especially agriculture, water resource, health, forest, coastal ecosystem and

biodiversity. Also, the review of existing climate change related studies, literature,

future projection, mitigation, adaptive techniques are indicating that the existing facts

and figures are still limited and these learning cannot be applied universally, in order

to plan a realistic adaptive measures to cope with the changing climate, location and

issue based in depth studies are essential. Also, it is very clear that out of all sectors,

agriculture going to be affected very severally, especially preparing small and

marginal farmers to undertake a realistic adaptive measure is very critical in order to

keep them active in the business of agriculture to ensure food security of the global

population.

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Two major ways are there to control global warming.

Carbon sequestration (keeping the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere).

Reduce production of greenhouse gases (Alternate sources of energy).

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