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Imagine that the number of students in our AP HuG Class has doubled list the effects of this both positive and negative Would you like to have more fewer or the same number of students in the class as now
Questions
1 What services are easier to provide for an area of high population density
2 What qualities are desirable about areas of lower population density
3 If population continues to grow locally what is the impact on population density
Human Geography
Unit II Population
Population Geographybull Distribution of World Populationbull Population Statisticsbull Population Pyramidsbull Demographic Transition Theorybull Population Control bull Overpopulation
(Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)
Population
bull Demography The study of the Characteristics of human population ndash Demographers look statistically at
how people are distributed spatially by age gender occupation fertility health etc
bull The distribution of the worlds population is in one word ldquounevenrdquo
A little information about world Population
bull 80 of pop Lives within 500 Mi of an ocean
bull World inhabitants live on only 10 of the land
bull 90 of pop Lives North of the Equator
bull 65 lives between 20degN and 60 deg N latitude
Population Concentrations
bull 23 countries = 75 of world population (172)
bull 10 Countries have pops Greater than 100M
bull China India United States Indonesia Brazil
Questions
1 What services are easier to provide for an area of high population density
2 What qualities are desirable about areas of lower population density
3 If population continues to grow locally what is the impact on population density
Human Geography
Unit II Population
Population Geographybull Distribution of World Populationbull Population Statisticsbull Population Pyramidsbull Demographic Transition Theorybull Population Control bull Overpopulation
(Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)
Population
bull Demography The study of the Characteristics of human population ndash Demographers look statistically at
how people are distributed spatially by age gender occupation fertility health etc
bull The distribution of the worlds population is in one word ldquounevenrdquo
A little information about world Population
bull 80 of pop Lives within 500 Mi of an ocean
bull World inhabitants live on only 10 of the land
bull 90 of pop Lives North of the Equator
bull 65 lives between 20degN and 60 deg N latitude
Population Concentrations
bull 23 countries = 75 of world population (172)
bull 10 Countries have pops Greater than 100M
bull China India United States Indonesia Brazil
Human Geography
Unit II Population
Population Geographybull Distribution of World Populationbull Population Statisticsbull Population Pyramidsbull Demographic Transition Theorybull Population Control bull Overpopulation
(Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)
Population
bull Demography The study of the Characteristics of human population ndash Demographers look statistically at
how people are distributed spatially by age gender occupation fertility health etc
bull The distribution of the worlds population is in one word ldquounevenrdquo
A little information about world Population
bull 80 of pop Lives within 500 Mi of an ocean
bull World inhabitants live on only 10 of the land
bull 90 of pop Lives North of the Equator
bull 65 lives between 20degN and 60 deg N latitude
Population Concentrations
bull 23 countries = 75 of world population (172)
bull 10 Countries have pops Greater than 100M
bull China India United States Indonesia Brazil
Population Geographybull Distribution of World Populationbull Population Statisticsbull Population Pyramidsbull Demographic Transition Theorybull Population Control bull Overpopulation
(Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)
Population
bull Demography The study of the Characteristics of human population ndash Demographers look statistically at
how people are distributed spatially by age gender occupation fertility health etc
bull The distribution of the worlds population is in one word ldquounevenrdquo
A little information about world Population
bull 80 of pop Lives within 500 Mi of an ocean
bull World inhabitants live on only 10 of the land
bull 90 of pop Lives North of the Equator
bull 65 lives between 20degN and 60 deg N latitude
Population Concentrations
bull 23 countries = 75 of world population (172)
bull 10 Countries have pops Greater than 100M
bull China India United States Indonesia Brazil
Population
bull Demography The study of the Characteristics of human population ndash Demographers look statistically at
how people are distributed spatially by age gender occupation fertility health etc
bull The distribution of the worlds population is in one word ldquounevenrdquo
A little information about world Population
bull 80 of pop Lives within 500 Mi of an ocean
bull World inhabitants live on only 10 of the land
bull 90 of pop Lives North of the Equator
bull 65 lives between 20degN and 60 deg N latitude
Population Concentrations
bull 23 countries = 75 of world population (172)
bull 10 Countries have pops Greater than 100M
bull China India United States Indonesia Brazil
A little information about world Population
bull 80 of pop Lives within 500 Mi of an ocean
bull World inhabitants live on only 10 of the land
bull 90 of pop Lives North of the Equator
bull 65 lives between 20degN and 60 deg N latitude
Population Concentrations
bull 23 countries = 75 of world population (172)
bull 10 Countries have pops Greater than 100M
bull China India United States Indonesia Brazil
Population Concentrations
bull 23 countries = 75 of world population (172)
bull 10 Countries have pops Greater than 100M
bull China India United States Indonesia Brazil
World and Country Population Totals
Distribution and Structure 34 of people live on 5 of earths surface
Total 66 billion on planet as of 2007World Clock
Five most populous regions and countriesREGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION
bull East Asia 15 billion China 1254 billion
bull South Asia 12 billion India 986 millionbull Europe 750 million US 274 millionbull SE Asia 500 million Indonesia 206 millionbull East N Am 120 million Brazil 168 million
Factors that Shape Distribution
bull Accessibility bull Topographybull Soil Fertility bull Climate
bull Weather bull Water bull Political
History bull Economic
History
Ecumene
Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 BC - AD 1900
Ecumene or portion of the earthrsquos surface that has permanent human settlement has expanded to cover most of the earthrsquos land area
Population Density
bull Density numerical measure of the relationship between the number of people and some other unit of interest (typically space)
Population Density
bull 2 Main Types of Densities ndashCrudeArithmetic ndashPhysiological
Arithmetic Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of land area US = 76mi2 NYC=1000000mi2 Australia = 7mi2
Physiological Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land
CrudeArithmetic Density
bull Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called pop Density)
Limitationsbull Assumes Uniformitybull One dimensional bull Tells little about opportunities or
obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land
Assumes Uniformity
Example New York State bull 407731 People Per Sq Mile
(6th)bull Remove NY City Population
of 8 Million bull And area of NYC 368 sq mibull Density = 24019 People
Per Sq Mile
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Factors that Shape Distribution
bull Accessibility bull Topographybull Soil Fertility bull Climate
bull Weather bull Water bull Political
History bull Economic
History
Ecumene
Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 BC - AD 1900
Ecumene or portion of the earthrsquos surface that has permanent human settlement has expanded to cover most of the earthrsquos land area
Population Density
bull Density numerical measure of the relationship between the number of people and some other unit of interest (typically space)
Population Density
bull 2 Main Types of Densities ndashCrudeArithmetic ndashPhysiological
Arithmetic Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of land area US = 76mi2 NYC=1000000mi2 Australia = 7mi2
Physiological Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land
CrudeArithmetic Density
bull Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called pop Density)
Limitationsbull Assumes Uniformitybull One dimensional bull Tells little about opportunities or
obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land
Assumes Uniformity
Example New York State bull 407731 People Per Sq Mile
(6th)bull Remove NY City Population
of 8 Million bull And area of NYC 368 sq mibull Density = 24019 People
Per Sq Mile
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Ecumene
Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 BC - AD 1900
Ecumene or portion of the earthrsquos surface that has permanent human settlement has expanded to cover most of the earthrsquos land area
Population Density
bull Density numerical measure of the relationship between the number of people and some other unit of interest (typically space)
Population Density
bull 2 Main Types of Densities ndashCrudeArithmetic ndashPhysiological
Arithmetic Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of land area US = 76mi2 NYC=1000000mi2 Australia = 7mi2
Physiological Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land
CrudeArithmetic Density
bull Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called pop Density)
Limitationsbull Assumes Uniformitybull One dimensional bull Tells little about opportunities or
obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land
Assumes Uniformity
Example New York State bull 407731 People Per Sq Mile
(6th)bull Remove NY City Population
of 8 Million bull And area of NYC 368 sq mibull Density = 24019 People
Per Sq Mile
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Density
bull Density numerical measure of the relationship between the number of people and some other unit of interest (typically space)
Population Density
bull 2 Main Types of Densities ndashCrudeArithmetic ndashPhysiological
Arithmetic Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of land area US = 76mi2 NYC=1000000mi2 Australia = 7mi2
Physiological Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land
CrudeArithmetic Density
bull Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called pop Density)
Limitationsbull Assumes Uniformitybull One dimensional bull Tells little about opportunities or
obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land
Assumes Uniformity
Example New York State bull 407731 People Per Sq Mile
(6th)bull Remove NY City Population
of 8 Million bull And area of NYC 368 sq mibull Density = 24019 People
Per Sq Mile
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Density
bull 2 Main Types of Densities ndashCrudeArithmetic ndashPhysiological
Arithmetic Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of land area US = 76mi2 NYC=1000000mi2 Australia = 7mi2
Physiological Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land
CrudeArithmetic Density
bull Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called pop Density)
Limitationsbull Assumes Uniformitybull One dimensional bull Tells little about opportunities or
obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land
Assumes Uniformity
Example New York State bull 407731 People Per Sq Mile
(6th)bull Remove NY City Population
of 8 Million bull And area of NYC 368 sq mibull Density = 24019 People
Per Sq Mile
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Arithmetic Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of land area US = 76mi2 NYC=1000000mi2 Australia = 7mi2
Physiological Density ndash the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land
CrudeArithmetic Density
bull Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called pop Density)
Limitationsbull Assumes Uniformitybull One dimensional bull Tells little about opportunities or
obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land
Assumes Uniformity
Example New York State bull 407731 People Per Sq Mile
(6th)bull Remove NY City Population
of 8 Million bull And area of NYC 368 sq mibull Density = 24019 People
Per Sq Mile
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
CrudeArithmetic Density
bull Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called pop Density)
Limitationsbull Assumes Uniformitybull One dimensional bull Tells little about opportunities or
obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land
Assumes Uniformity
Example New York State bull 407731 People Per Sq Mile
(6th)bull Remove NY City Population
of 8 Million bull And area of NYC 368 sq mibull Density = 24019 People
Per Sq Mile
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Assumes Uniformity
Example New York State bull 407731 People Per Sq Mile
(6th)bull Remove NY City Population
of 8 Million bull And area of NYC 368 sq mibull Density = 24019 People
Per Sq Mile
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Density of Georgia
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Physiological Density
bull Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
bull Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
bull Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
bull Reflects the ldquoburden of dependencyrdquo or ldquocarrying capacityrdquo
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
bull United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
bull Egypt = 9073 people per sq Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than CrudeArithmetic Density
Physiological Density
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Answer bull Physiological gives us a better
picture of the populations strain on the countryrsquos resources
EXAMPLEUnited States Crude Density = 78 per sq mi Physiological = 404 per sq mi Egypt Crude Density = 185 per sq mi Physiological = 9073 per sq mi
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Density ndash Egypt
bullAll but 5 of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
bullIt is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Growth
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
GrowthIn order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors
- Fertility and Mortality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Measuring Population
bull GeographersDemographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Measuring Population
ndashCrude Birth Rate (CBR)ndashCrude Death Rate (CDR)ndashNatural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Natural means excluding migration
bull Crude means looking at society as a whole
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Crude Birth Rate
bull Total number of live births in a year for every 1000 people alive ndashCBR of 20 means that for every 1000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
ndashCBR for United States 2005 = 141
CBR = number of live births divide population x 1000
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Crude Death Rate
bull Total number of deaths in a year for every 1000 people
bull CDR for United States 2005 = 82
CDR = number of deaths divide population x 1000
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
bull Computed CBR ndash CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1000 to ( per 100)
bull CBR = 20 CDR = 5 bull 20 ndash 5 = 15 per 1000 or 15
(15divide1000 x100)
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Natural Increase
bull World NIR for the 1st Half of the 20th Century = 13ndashPeaked at 22 in 1963ndashDeclined sharply during the past decade
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Natural Increase
bull 80 Million people are added to the pop annually
bull High of 87 in 1989bull Small change in the NIR are
very dramatic because the affects such a large base (64B)
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Rates of Natural Increase
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Demographic Equations
Growth Rate () = (Birth Rate ndash Death Rate) +ndash Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase ()
Population Doubling Time (yrs) = 72 Rate of Natural Increase
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Fertility bull Total fertility rate (TFR) average
number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
bull TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
bull World TFR is around 3ndashSub Saharan Africa gt6ndashEurope lt2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of childrenFertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1000
total population of females age 15-44 at mid-point of time period
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
21 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan Italy) to around 7 (Niger Mali) The US rate is 2
England amp Wales
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Total Fertility Rate
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
New Influences on Birth Rates
bull Family planning programsbull Contraceptive technologybull Role of mass media
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Mortality
bull Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual of deaths of infants under one year of age compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1000 number of live births during time period
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Infant Mortality Rate ndash the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone Afghanistan) The US rate is just over 6 High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek ldquoinsurancerdquo for the loss of children
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Mortality
bull Exceeds 100 in some LDCrsquos ndashW Europe lt 5
bull Generally a reflection of a countryrsquos healthcare systemndashW Europe lt 5
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
World Death Ratesbull Infectious diseases
ndash HIVAIDSndash SARS
bull Degenerative diseasesndash Obesityndash Tobacco use
bull Epidemiological transitionndash Communicable diseasespathogens in less
developed countriesndash Degenerative diseases in more developed
countries (obesity heart disease diabetes cancer)
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Adults and Children Living with HIVAIDS mid-2006
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Epidemiologic Transitionbull Stages 1 and 2
ndash Infectious and parasitic disease
ndash ldquonatural checksrdquo according to Malthus
bull Stages 3 and 4ndash Degenerative and human
created diseasendash Increase in chronic
disorders associated with aging (heart attack etc)
bull Possible Stage 5ndash Reemergence of infectious
and parasitic disease
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Life Expectancy
bull Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
bull W Europe = late 70rsquosbull Sub Saharan Africa = Late
30rsquos
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Life Expectancy
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Doubling Timebull How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in sizebull Doubling time assumes the population willgrow at a given annual ratebull Approximated by dividing the annual rateof population into 70
World = 50US = 35MDC = 550LDC = 40Honduras = 22Denmark = 700Russia = never
Example Bangladesh 70RNI =gt 70209 = 335 years
Bangladesh with a population of 1443 million people in 2005 will have approximately 2886million people in 2038 if the population continues to grow at current rates
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Model that shows changes in natural increase fertility and mortality rates
bull A process with several stages
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Demographic Transition Modelwwwprborgpdf04transitionsinWorldPoppdf
The demographic transition consists of four stages which move from high birth and death rates to
declines first in death rates then in birth rates and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates
Population growth is most rapid in the second stage
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
The Demographic Transition Model
bull Every country in the world is in one of the stages
bull The process has a beginning middle and end
bull Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
The Demographic Transition
bull The Demographic Transitionndash 1 Low growth ndash 3 Moderate
growthndash 2 High growth ndash 4 Low growth
bull Population pyramidsndash Age distributionndash Sex ratio
bull Countries in different stages of demographic transition
bull Demographic transition and world population growth
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Demographic Transition Modelbull Stage one
ndash Crude birthdeath rate highndash Fragile population
bull Stage twondash Lower death ratesndash Infant mortality ratendash Natural increase high
bull Stage threendash Indicative of richer developed countriesndash Higher standards of livingeducation
bull Stage Fourndash CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =ndash ZPG= Zero Pop Growth ndash Most Northern and Western Euro countries
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
bull CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
bull Population remained unchanged (around 500000)
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Between 800 BC and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 1 Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
bull Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
bull No Country is currently in Stage 1
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Human Numbers Through Time AD 0
bull 2000 years agoat the dawn of the first millennium AD the worlds population was around 300 million people
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Human Numbers Through Time AD 1000
bull 1000 years laterthe population had risen by as little as 10 million And well into the second millennium it grew less than 01 percent each year The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300smdashstruck down by the Black Plague But beginning in the late 18th century the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from 05 to 5
bull Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
bull In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
bull Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life bettereasier)
bull 1800 in Europe and N America
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 2 High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
bull 1950 in Africa Asia and Latin America
bull Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDCrsquos
bull LDCrsquos were given ldquoDeath Controlrdquo
bull Edward Jenner 1796 Smallpox vaccine
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Human Numbers Through Time 1800
bull 800 years laterthe population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia 21 percent in a prospering Europe and less than 1 percent in North America
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 3 Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
bull Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
bull CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
bull Pop Still grows ndash just at a modest rate bull Europe and North America Enter 1st
Half 20th Century bull Asia Latin America in recent years
Africa ndash Not yet
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer
childrenbull Parents understand the decline in
mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming
jobsbull In urban areas children are not
economic assetsbull Urban homes are smaller
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 4 Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
bull CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
bull Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
bull Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 21 = ZPG
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Source Population Reference Bureau and United Nations World Population Projections to 2100 (1998)
Demographic Transition Model
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Why such a low Fertility Rate in StagePhase 4
bull Women in Stage 4 work bull Childcare is needed in order to workbull Birth control bull Upscale Activities
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
StagePhase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)bull Negative Natural Increase bull High Death Rates poor pollution
controls during communist control bull Low Birth Rates
ndash ldquoFamily Planningrdquo remains from communism
ndash In Russia women average 35 abortions ndash Pessimism about the future
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
To Reviewhellip
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
bull Pre-industrialbull CBR and CDR high
and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters
bull Population is a constant and young pop
Stage One
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Stage Twobull Death rates
drophellip improvements in food supply sanitation etc
bull Birth rates do not drophellip causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Stage Threebull Birth rates fall
ndash Access to contraception
ndash Increase in wagesndash Urbanizationndash Move away from
subsistence agriculture
ndash Education of women
bull Population growth begins to level off
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Stage Fourbull Low birth AND low
deathbull Birth rates may drop
below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth
bull Large group born during stage 2 ageshellip creates a burden on the smaller working population
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Soooohellipbull A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
bull Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are highhellip in Stage 4 they are low
bull Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
The Demographic Transition in England
bull Now Stage 4bull Historically
ndash Stage 1 ndash Low growth until 1750
ndash Stage 2 ndash High growth 1750-1880
ndash Stage 3 ndash Moderate growth 1880-early 1970rsquos
ndash Stage 4 ndash Early 1970rsquos-present Long time below the 21 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Problems with the Demographic Transition
Model
bull based on European experience assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
bull many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
bull on the other hand some countries ldquostuckrdquo in stage 2 or stage 3
bull it is not an exact science
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Rememberhellip Demographic Transition is not only
dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out
migration
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
If we are in Stage 4 then why is world population increasing at such a rapid rate
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull Second Half of the 20th Century population increase rapidly because few countries were in Stage 1 or 4
bull Today no country is in Stage 1 and few are in Stage 4
bull Most countries are Stage 23 and very few of those are close to hitting 4 anytime soon
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
Stage 4 is caused by 2 ldquobreaksrdquo1 Sudden Drop in the Crude Death
Rate2 Sudden Drop in the Crude Birth
Rate
bull N America and Europe created their first break by creating the Industrial Revolution
bull Therefore society had gradually moved to that point both socially and economically
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Demographic Transition and World Population Growth
bull However the first break was artificially implanted into many other countries
bull The Regions of Africa Parts of East Asiaand others were given the ability to lower their Crude Death Rate
bull This caused a massive change in population without the change in societal structure that came in Europe and North America that would eventually cause the Drop in the Crude Birth Rate
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Causes for drop in Crude Birth Rate
Change in Social Customsbull People choose to have fewer childrenbull Parents understand the decline in mortality ratesbull More service jobs less farming jobsbull In urban areas children are not economic assetsbull Urban homes are smallerbull Women workbull Birth Control
Does it Seem like these Changes in Social Customs are occurring in the countries that are currently in Stage 2
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Answer
bull Only Europe and Parts of North America are in Stage 4
bull Other areas with already large population centers are in Stage 2 or Stage 3
bull The problem lies in how to ldquoforcerdquo or ldquoshockrdquo those areas into Stage 4
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM - Create a poster illustrating your stage - Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage at least 4 in your own words - You will present your posters to the class
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
- Next create your own flashcard of the DTM - A labeled illustration should go on the front and an explanation should go on the back - When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+ I will laminate it for you you can study and use this for the rest of the year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bir
th amp
Dea
th r
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Sweden 1740 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
DR
BR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bir
th amp
Dea
th R
ates
Birth and Death Rates for Mexico 1900 - 2000
Birth Rate Death Rate
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
bull How do the crude birth rate amp the fertility rate differ
bull Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world
Warm-Up 920
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Warm-Up 920bull What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a populationrsquos age and gender composition
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Pyramids amp
the Demographic Transition Model
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population in Demographic Transition
bull A countryrsquos stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
bull The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways
bull of population in Each Age Groupbull Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Pyramid (AgeSex Pyramid)
bull Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects such as birth or deaths
bull Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Characteristics of Population Pyramids
bull Males = left side of the vertical axis bull Females = right side of the vertical
axis bull Age = order sequentially with
youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
bull Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Pyramid Developed Countries
bull A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of ldquoolder peoplerdquo
bull Smaller of young people
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Pyramid Developing Countries
bull A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
bull Large number of young people and a smaller older population
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Rapid Growth in Cape VerdeCape Verde which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950 is experiencing rapid population growth Its population history reflects the
impacts of famines and out-migration
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Moderate Growth in ChileChile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Age Distribution
bull Dependency Ratio number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people in their productive years
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Sex Ratio
bull Sex Ratio number of males per hundred females
bull In general more males are born than females
bull Males have higher death rates
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
3 age groupings
bull 0-14 = Dependentsbull 15-64 = Workersbull 64+ = Dependents bull Stage 2 Countries = 11 bull Stage 4 Countries = 12
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Sex Ratio
bull Europe and North America = 95100
bull Rest of World = 102100
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Developing Countries
bull Have large of young people ndashwhere males generally outnumber females
bull Lower of older people ndash where females are typically more numerous
bull High immigration = more males
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population Shift
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
An Aging World
Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for
1 The US housing market
2 Social security and pension funds
3 Public financing of colleges and universities
4 Global migration flows
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Power of the Pyramidsbull You will be given data for several countries as well as a
template for graphing the databull The figures on the data sheet represent the population
(in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country In order to construct the countryrsquos pyramid you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group
Cohort divideTotal population = x 100 = Ex 10635000divide301140000 = 035 or 35
bull Complete the calculations for each cohort recording your percentages on the data sheet
bull Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries
bull Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids When you are complete analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together based on the graphs each of each group member created
Be ready to go over your answers as a class
If you finish early work on yourhellipDTM flashcard vocabulary reading guides etchellip
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
OVERPOPULATION
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Overpopulationbull When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Thomas Malthus bull An Essay on the
Principle of Population (1798)
bull Earthrsquos population was growing much more rapidly than the Earthrsquos food supply
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted
bull population would outrun food supply
bull decrease in food per person
Assumptionsbull Populations grow
exponentiallybull Food supply grows
arithmeticallybull Food shortages and
chaos inevitable
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4
Population
Food
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Reasonhellip bull Population increases
geometrically bull Food Supply increases
arithmetically
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population J-Curve
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Reasoninghellip bull Made Prediction following Englandrsquos entrance into stage 2 of DT
bull Moral restraint needed to lower CBR or something needs to increase the CDR
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Neo-Malthusians
bull Problem of overpopulation will be even worse than Malthus predicted
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
2 Main Reasons
bull Malthus failed to anticipate how many LDCrsquos would reach stage 2
bull Overpopulation outstrips more than just food production
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Pop
ula
tion a
nd
Reso
urc
e C
onsu
mp
tion
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Technology Energy Consumption and Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase inbull individual energy use over time 3000 kcalperson - 300000 kcalperson
bull the power of technology to change the environment think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb
bull The scope and severity of environmental impacts
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Population and the EnvironmentI = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problemsbull Global Warming
bull Habitat Loss Endangered Species
bull Resource Depletion
bull Food Shortages Not globally but regionally
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Criticism of Malthus
bull Assumed world resources are fixed rather than expanding
bull Increased pop could create more resources
bull Marxist argument that there are plenty of resources only an unequal distribution
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
(1743 ndash 1794)
bull predicted that innovation resulting increased wealth and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
bull believed that society was perfectible
Jean Antoine Condorcet
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
Malthus and Reality
bull Last half-century has not supported Malthusrsquo s theory
bull Food production amp effects of globalization
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
bull Cultural and societal changes moved societies into stages 3 and 4 quicker
bull Consistent drop in the NIR bull Caused by a drop in the CBRndashEconomic Development ndashContraceptives
Malthus and Reality
