Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt

1 I & I NSW, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute2 EH Graham Centre (I&I NSW and CSU)

3 Primary Industries Innovation Centre, UNE

De Li Liu1,2 and Bob Martin3

Managing sowing dates can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the next 2 – 3 decades

Changing varieties, i.e. limiting sowing of winter varieties in the western plains, can help mitigate the impacts of climate change further out (> 2040)

Breeding spring varieties that have slow developmental rates is a general adaptation strategy for climate change

Adaptation strategies – take-home messages

Outline

Background Modelling the impacts of climate change on

wheat flowering in the NSW wheat belt Results Summary and adaptation strategies

Background

Temperature• Is a key impact of climate change• Is one of the main drivers of plant

development Wheat crop development will be affected by

climate change – and already has

Background

Impacts of climate change on wheat development can be expected to vary between wheat genotypes:– Development of winter genotype can be

slower due to unfavourable conditions for vernalisation requirement

– Development of spring genotype can be faster in warmer climate

Impacts of global warming on wheat phenology Early study based on

– Winter wheat sown on 1st May – Spring wheat sown on 20 June

►Results suggested that spring genotype wheat would predominate landscapes in future climate, while winter genotype would not be suitable in some current warming regions

Research questions

What are the impacts of climate change on wheat development when wheat crops are planted on other sowing dates?

Can we optimise sowing dates and/or change wheat varieties as adaptation strategies?

MODELLING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT FLOWERING IN THE NSW WHEAT BELT

March May July

Winter Spring

Genotype Genotype

Current wheat sowing dates in NSW

Modelling experiment design

Sowing daily

Two varieties: – Winter genotype: Wedgetail

– Spring genotype: Cunningham

Sowing dates:– Winter wheat: 15 February – 15 June– Spring wheat: 15 April – 15 August

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

QA

L2000

HM

ercuryM

acKellar

Wollaroi

Tennant

Curraw

ongL

orikeetE

gaWedgetai

VA

RB

Kaputar

Mackay

Rosella

Yitpi

WW

2772W

W30284

Wylah

VA

RE

Spelt73W

W11324

Annuello

SunbrookW

histlerW

allaroiSpelt77V

AR

CSpelt76V

AR

DM

arombi

Fitzroy

SpeltA

rrivatoQ

AL

Bis

WB

238JackieSU

N392A

GB

AH

unterSunbriF

rame

WA

BA

R2344

WA

BA

R2331

VB

9926B

inalongW

AB

AR

2347ShentonY

iptiC

A3104

WA

BA

R2175

Pugsley

WW

4719Q

T7208

WW

4721W

W4263

C25

SunzellStrzeleckiW

AB

AR

2334W

AB

AR

2357W

AB

AR

2354V

AR

AC

ombat

WB

236Y

endaW

W2656

Barham

WB

244SapphireR

AC

1192W

W4320

C718

C643

WW

21570JandaroiB

raewood

Lang

Cunningham

WW

12410W

W21571

H91

SUN

389ASU

N435D

Bellaroi

H46

Carinya

Babbler

Drysdale

Chara

SunstateG

regoryV

enturaW

entworth

Wylie

Bow

erbirdD

iamondbird

Ellison

SunvaleJanzH

45

Ver

nal

izat

ion

ind

uct

ive

day

s

Climate Data and Analytical Tool Climate change scenarios

– I&I NSW’s statistical downscaled (weather generator downscaling approach) GCMs data for

• 24, 20 & 21 GCMs for A1B, A2 & B1• downscaled daily date for 1900-2100• 1062 NSW sites (509 sites in wheat belt used for

this study) CSIRO Mk 3.2 under A2 was used for this study Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Tool (CCAST)

developed by I&I NSW was used to – run wheat penology model with downscaled daily

data – conduct spatial analysis

NSW wheat belt

South-West (Southern plains)

North-East (Northern slopes)

South-East (Southern slopes)

North-West (Northern plains)

Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat in NSW wheat belt

15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug

2030

2050

2090

2070

Current sowing window

Averaged: -20 days

Averaged: -24 days

Averaged: -28 days

Averaged: -24 days

Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat sown on 15 April over NSW four regions

Changes in days to flowering of spring wheat in NSWNorth West

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

12

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

3-M

ay

10

-Ma

y

17

-Ma

y

24

-Ma

y

31

-Ma

y

7-J

un

14

-Ju

n

21

-Ju

n

28

-Ju

n

5-J

ul

12

-Ju

l

19

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

es in

day

s to

flo

wer

ing

2030

2050

2070

2090

North East

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

12

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

3-M

ay

10

-Ma

y

17

-Ma

y

24

-Ma

y

31

-Ma

y

7-J

un

14

-Ju

n

21

-Ju

n

28

-Ju

n

5-J

ul

12

-Ju

l

19

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

es in

day

s to

flo

wer

ing

2030

2050

2070

2090

South West

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

12

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

3-M

ay

10

-Ma

y

17

-Ma

y

24

-Ma

y

31

-Ma

y

7-J

un

14

-Ju

n

21

-Ju

n

28

-Ju

n

5-J

ul

12

-Ju

l

19

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

es in

day

s to

flo

wer

ing

2030

2050

2070

2090

South East

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

01

2-A

pr

19

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

3-M

ay

10

-Ma

y

17

-Ma

y

24

-Ma

y

31

-Ma

y

7-J

un

14

-Ju

n

21

-Ju

n

28

-Ju

n

5-J

ul

12

-Ju

l

19

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

es in

day

s to

flo

wer

ing

2030

2050

2070

2090

7 days shorter

2030

2050

2070

2090

15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun

Changes in days to flowering for winter wheat in the NSW wheat belt

Current sowing window

Changes in days to flowering of winter wheat in NSW

North West

-14-707

142128354249

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Ap

r

8-Ap

r

15-Ap

r

22-Ap

r

29-Ap

r

6-May

13-May

20-May

27-May

3-Ju

n

10-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

es in

day

s to

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

North East

-14

-7

0

7

14

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

es in

day

s to

flo

wer

ing

2030205020702090

South West

-14

-7

0

7

14

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ges

in

days

to f

low

eri

ng

2030205020702090

South East

-14

-7

0

7

14

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ges

in

days

to f

low

eri

ng

2030205020702090

7 days

Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion) , winter genotype

2030

2050

2070

2090

15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun

Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion), winter wheat sown in NSW

North West

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Ap

r

8-Ap

r

15-Ap

r

22-Ap

r

29-Ap

r

6-May

13-May

20-May

27-May

3-Jun

10-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

day

s to

ver

n.

ind

uct

ed

2030205020702090

North East

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

day

s to

ver

n.

ind

uct

ed

2030205020702090

South West

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

day

s to

ver

n.

ind

uct

ed

2030205020702090

South East

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

1051

1-F

eb

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

day

s to

ver

n.

ind

uct

ed

2030205020702090

North West

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

12-A

pr

19-A

pr

26-A

pr

3-M

ay

10-M

ay

17-M

ay

24-M

ay

31-M

ay

7-J

un

14-J

un

21-J

un

28-J

un

5-J

ul

12-J

ul

19-J

ul

26-J

ul

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

16-A

ug

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ge i

n n

o o

f fr

ost

days

at

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

North East

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

12

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

3-M

ay

10

-Ma

y

17

-Ma

y

24

-Ma

y

31

-Ma

y

7-J

un

14

-Ju

n

21

-Ju

n

28

-Ju

n

5-J

ul

12

-Ju

l

19

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

16

-Au

g

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ge i

n n

o o

f fr

ost

days

at

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

South West

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

12

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

3-M

ay

10

-Ma

y

17

-Ma

y

24

-Ma

y

31

-Ma

y

7-J

un

14

-Ju

n

21

-Ju

n

28

-Ju

n

5-J

ul

12

-Ju

l

19

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

16

-Au

gSowing dates

Ch

an

ge i

n n

o o

f fr

ost

days

at

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

South East

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

12

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

3-M

ay

10

-Ma

y

17

-Ma

y

24

-Ma

y

31

-Ma

y

7-J

un

14

-Ju

n

21

-Ju

n

28

-Ju

n

5-J

ul

12

-Ju

l

19

-Ju

l

26

-Ju

l

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

16

-Au

g

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ge i

n n

o o

f fr

ost

days

at

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

Changes in no. of frost days at flowering

Spring wheat

North West

-3

-2

-1

0

1

11-F

eb

18-F

eb

25-F

eb

4-M

ar

11-M

ar

18-M

ar

25-M

ar

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15-A

pr

22-A

pr

29-A

pr

6-M

ay

13-M

ay

20-M

ay

27-M

ay

3-J

un

10-J

un

17-J

un

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ge i

n n

o o

f fr

ost

days

at

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

North East

-3

-2

-1

0

1

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ge i

n n

o o

f fr

ost

days

at

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

South West

-3

-2

-1

0

1

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ge i

n n

o o

f fr

ost

days

at

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

South East

-3

-2

-1

0

1

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

4-M

ar

11

-Ma

r

18

-Ma

r

25

-Ma

r

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

20

-Ma

y

27

-Ma

y

3-J

un

10

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ge i

n n

o o

f fr

ost

days

at

flo

weri

ng

2030205020702090

Winter wheat

Fewer frost days for both genotypes

Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for spring wheat sown in NSW

Increased hot days in later sowing and later years

North West

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

12-Ap

r

19-Ap

r

26-Ap

r

3-May

10-May

17-May

24-May

31-May

7-Jun

14-Jun

21-Jun

28-Jun

5-Jul

12-Jul

19-Jul

26-Jul

2-Au

g

9-Au

g

16-Au

g

Sowing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

flo

wer

ing

2030205020702090

North East

-3-2-1012345

12-Apr

19-Apr

26-Apr

3-May

10-May

17-May

24-May

31-May

7-Jun

14-Jun

21-Jun

28-Jun

5-Jul

12-Jul

19-Jul

26-Jul2-A

ug

9-Aug

16-Aug

Sowing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

flo

wer

ing

2030205020702090

South West

-3-2-1012345

12-Apr

19-Apr

26-Apr

3-May

10-May

17-May

24-May

31-May

7-Jun

14-Jun

21-Jun

28-Jun

5-Jul

12-Jul

19-Jul

26-Jul

2-Aug

9-Aug

16-Aug

Sowing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

flo

wer

ing

2030205020702090

South East

-3-2-1012345

12-Ap

r

19-Ap

r

26-Ap

r

3-May

10-May

17-May

24-May

31-May

7-Jun

14-Jun

21-Jun

28-Jun

5-Jul

12-Jul

19-Jul

26-Jul

2-Au

g

9-Au

g

16-Au

g

Sowing dates

Ch

an

ge

in n

o o

f h

ot

day

s a

t fl

ow

eri

ng

2030205020702090

Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling, spring wheat sowing in NSW

Reduced hot days at grain filling

North West

-3

-2

-1

0

12-Ap

r

19-Ap

r

26-Ap

r

3-May

10-May

17-May

24-May

31-May

7-Jun

14-Jun

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

no

of

ho

t d

ays

at

gra

in f

illin

g 2030205020702090

North East

-3

-2

-1

0

12-Ap

r

19-Ap

r

26-Ap

r

3-May

10-May

17-May

24-May

31-May

7-Jun

14-Jun

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

no

of

ho

t d

ays

at

gra

in f

illi

ng

2030205020702090

South West

-3

-2

-1

0

12-Ap

r

19-Ap

r

26-Ap

r

3-May

10-May

17-May

24-May

31-May

7-Jun

14-Jun

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

no

of

ho

t d

ays

at

gra

in f

illin

g 2030205020702090

South East

-3

-2

-1

0

12-Ap

r

19-Ap

r

26-Ap

r

3-May

10-May

17-May

24-May

31-May

7-Jun

14-Jun

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

no

of

ho

t d

ays

at

gra

in f

illin

g

2030205020702090

North West

-2-101234567

11-Feb

25-Feb

11-Mar

25-Mar

8-Ap

r

22-Ap

r

6-May

20-May

3-Jun

17-Jun

Sow ing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

flo

wer

ing

2030205020702090

North East

-2-101234567

11-Feb

25-Feb

11-Mar

25-Mar

8-Apr

22-Apr

6-May

20-May

3-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

flo

wer

ing

2030205020702090

South West

-2-101234567

11-Feb

25-Feb

11-Mar

25-Mar

8-Apr

22-Apr

6-May

20-May

3-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

flo

wer

ing

2030

20502070

2090

South East

-2-101234567

11-Feb

25-Feb

11-Mar

25-Mar

8-Apr

22-Apr

6-May

20-May

3-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing datesC

hang

e in

no

of h

ot d

ays

at

flow

erin

g

2030205020702090

Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for winter wheat sown in NSW

Increased hot days in later sowing and later years in North west

Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling for winter wheat sown in NSW

North West

-2

0

2

4

6

8

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Ap

r

8-Ap

r

15-Ap

r

22-Ap

r

29-Ap

r

6-May

13-May

20-May

27-May

3-Jun

10-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing dates

Ch

ang

e in

no

of

ho

t d

ays

at

gra

in f

illin

g

2030205020702090

North East

-2

0

2

4

6

8

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Apr

8-Apr

15-Apr

22-Apr

29-Apr

6-May

13-May

20-May

27-May

3-Jun

10-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

gr

ain

fillin

g

2030205020702090

South West

-2

0

2

4

6

8

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Apr

8-Apr

15-Apr

22-Apr

29-Apr

6-May

13-May

20-May

27-May

3-Jun

10-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

gr

ain

fillin

g

2030205020702090

South East

-2

0

2

4

6

8

11-Feb

18-Feb

25-Feb

4-Mar

11-Mar

18-Mar

25-Mar

1-Apr

8-Apr

15-Apr

22-Apr

29-Apr

6-May

13-May

20-May

27-May

3-Jun

10-Jun

17-Jun

Sowing dates

Cha

nge

in n

o of

hot

day

s at

gr

ain

fillin

g

2030205020702090

Increased hot days at grain filling in North west after 2030

y = -0.06x2 + 6.61x + 2013.37

R2 = 1.00

y = -0.03x2 + 5.39x + 2009.76

R2 = 1.00

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

2140

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Critical advanced days

La

st

pla

nta

ble

ye

ar

CDAR = 30-JunCDAR = 31-JulPoly. (CDAR = 31-Jul)Poly. (CDAR = 30-Jun)

y = 0.15x2 + 6.08x + 2011.67

R2 = 1.00

y = 0.09x2 + 5.13x + 2006.80

R2 = 1.00

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

2140

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Critical advanced days

La

st

pla

nta

ble

ye

ar

CDAR = 30-JunCDAR = 31-JulPoly. (CDAR = 31-Jul)Poly. (CDAR = 30-Jun)

y = 0.19x2 + 4.53x + 2016.84

R2 = 1.00

y = $0.14x2 + $3.81x + $2,012.44

R2 = $1.00

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

2140

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Critical advanced days

La

st

pla

nta

ble

ye

ar

CDAR = 30-JunCDAR = 31-JulPoly. (CDAR = 31-Jul)Poly. (CDAR = 30-Jun)

Function of last plant-able year for spring wheat as a function of critical advanced days to flowering and critical date for acceptable risks/yield (CDAR)

North west plains

South east slopes

North east slopes

South west plains

y = 0.07x2 + 6.12x + 2028.79

R2 = 1.00

y = 0.04x2 + 4.81x + 2024.16

R2 = 1.00

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

2140

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Critical advanced days

Last

pla

nta

ble

year

CDAR = 30-JunCDAR = 31-JulPoly. (CDAR = 31-Jul)Poly. (CDAR = 30-Jun)

DTF of spring wheat will be shorter in NSW wheat belt; the earlier the sowing the greater the shortened length

DTF of winter wheat will be shorter in current cold regions (eastern slopes) and longer in current warm regions (western plains)

Frost risk will be lower under projected future climate Spring wheat:

– Heat stress risks increase with late sowing further in the future (>2070); but there will be lower heat stress risks at grain filling due to earlier flowering

Winter wheat:– Heat stress risks increase to critical levels at both flowering

and grain filling stages in some north west regions after 2030

Summary

Managing sowing dates can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the next 2 – 3 decades

Changing varieties, i.e. limiting sowing of winter varieties in the western plains, can help mitigate the impacts of climate change further out (> 2040)

Breeding spring varieties that have slow developmental rates is a general adaptation strategy for climate change

Adaption strategies – take-home messages

Thanks!