Impacts of Changing Climate in the Northeast on Manure Storages

Peter Wright, State Conservation EngineerNRCS Syracuse NY

Jessica Rennells, ClimatologistArthur DeGaetano, Director

Northeast Regional Climate CenterCurt Gooch, PRO-Dairy

Cornell University

Storage Issues

• Management• Design• Climate Change

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Ideal Management• Sized correctly based on CNMP• Emptied according to plan• Solids controlled• Drainage area controlled• Manure production stays same

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Actual Management• Sized based on affordability• May not be emptied according to

plan• Solids build up (or pump out

limited)• Drainage area increased• Manure production increases

– More cows– More production

007-23

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Design Adaptations

• Extra months of storage• 2 x the 24 hr.- 25 yr. storm• 10% production increase

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Impacts of Climate Change?

• Severe storms

• More total precipitation

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Results: Albany, New York

TP-40 NRCC

Rainfall Data 4.5 in 3.71 in

Rainfall Distribution

Type

Type II WinTR-20

Runoff Volume10Yr-24-hr

53.26 cfs 34.54 cfs

Runoff Volume 2.292 in 1.656 in

Distribution Differences:Site specificStorm specific

Dependent on:

Time of Concentration

Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation

• Observed linear 20th century (1901-2006) precipitation trends for North America. Data source: University of Delaware, Matsuura and Willmott 2009.

Projected percent change in seasonal precipitation for 2070-2099(compared to the period 1901-1960) under an emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (A2). Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. Wet regions tend to become wetter while dry regions become drier. In general, the northern part of the U.S. is projected to see more winter and spring precipitation, while the Southwest is projected to experience less precipitation in the spring. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP3; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) (note: to be redone with base period 1971-2000)

Winter 2080 MultiModel

Winter 2040 MultiModel

Projected changes in duration of dry spells (consecutive number of days with less than 2 mm of precipitation) across the United States projected for the high emissions scenario by the end of the 21st Century Data Source: CMIP-3. century.

Table 10C–1 Adjusted approximate mean monthly free water surface evaporation for selected stationsStation name - —————————————— Percent of annual —————————

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSacramento, CA 2 3 6 8 12 15 16 15 11 7 3 2

Aurora Res Fin, NY 13 15 17 14 10 7

Wooster Exp Sta, OH 9 13 15 15 14 10 7

Source: Adapted from Evaporation Atlas for the Contiguous 48 United States, NOAA Technical Report NWS 33, Table 3-Adjusted mean monthlyClass A pan evaporation for selected stations, 1956-70.

WETS Station : DECORAH, 192110Start yr. - 1961 End yr. - 1990Temperature: 30 years used out of 30 requested in this analysisPrecipitation: 30 years used out of 30 requested in this analysis

| Temperature | Precipitation3 yrs in 10 will have

Month | avg | avg | avg | avg less than more than|daily|daily| | | max | min | (in.) (in.) (in.)

January | 23.7| 5.3 | 14.5| 0.74 0.37 0.96February | 29.6| 10.7| 20.1 0.82 0.44 1.07March | 42.0| 23.6| 32.8| 1.89 1.28 2.42 April | 58.2| 36.3| 47.2| 3.42 2.36 4.45 May |70.8| 47.7| 59.2| 3.82 2.96 4.96June | 79.7| 56.7| 68.2| 4.20 2.80 5.46 July | 83.7| 61.4| 72.6| 3.99 2.75 5.19 August | 81.5| 59.0| 70.3| 4.03 2.55 5.23September | 72.7| 50.7| 61.7| 3.93 2.07 5.11 October | 61.0| 39.9| 50.5| 2.27 1.37 2.95 November | 43.8| 27.0| 35.4| 1.68 0.89 2.18 December | 28.3| 12.1| 20.2| 1.21 0.78 1.57Yearly : Average | 56.3| 35.9| 46.1

Total 32.01 28.58 41.55

Precipitation Ithaca NYLong term recordAnnual, 6 months and 8 months winter precipitation increasing

Precipitation Ithaca NYPrior to 1950Annual Increasing6 months and 8 months winter precipitation little change

Precipitation Ithaca NY1950-1980Annual increasing6 months winter decreasing slightly8 months winter increasing slightly

Precipitation Ithaca NYRecent PeriodAnnual Precipitation IncreasingWinter Precipitation Increasing

Changes Ithaca Structure

– Assumptions 500 milkers, 100 dry, 1,500 gallons wash water, 1,200 lbs. sawdust bedding Slide 42

Months Storage

PrecipitationInches

Slope Precipitation Volume ft3

Storage difference

Cost difference

6 Months 14.7 Average

0 8,318

6 Months 19 90% 0 8,816 498 $981

8 Months 21.3 Average

0 12,350

8 Months 28 90% 0 19,019 6,669 $13,138

Changes Jefferson Structure

– Assumptions 500 milkers, 100 dry, 1,500 gallons wash water, 1,200 lbs. sawdust bedding Slide 43

Months Storage

PrecipitationInches

Slope Precipitation Volume ft3

Storage difference

Cost difference

6 Months 19.6 Average

0 10,944

6 Months 27 90% 0 13,463 2,519 $4,962

8 Months 26.5 Average

0 20,651

8 Months 37 90% 0 27,452 6,801 $13,398

Changes Ithaca Earthen Storage

– Assumptions 500 milkers, 100 dry, 1,500 gallons wash water, 1,200 lbs. sawdust bedding Slide 44

Months Storage

PrecipitationInches

Slope Precipitation Volume ft3

Storage difference

Cost difference

6 Months 14.7 Average

2.5 19,332

6 Months 19 90% 2.5 20,586 1,254 $351

8 Months 21.3 Average

2.5 29,840

8 Months 28 90% 2.5 42,858 13,018 $3,645

Jefferson Earthen Storage

– Assumptions 500 milkers, 100 dry, 1,500 gallons wash water, 1,200 lbs. sawdust bedding Slide 45

Months Storage

PrecipitationInches

Slope Precipitation Volume ft3

Storage difference

Cost difference

6 Months 19.6 Average

2.5 26,009

6 Months 27 90% 2.5 32,790 6,781 $1,899

8 Months 26.5 Average

2.5 46,962

8 Months 37 90% 2.5 65,782 18,820 $5,270

Conclusions

• Climate Changing• Manure storage in Northeast need

to change• NRCS should help farms with risk

management• Storage size and Cost will increase• Consider Storage Cover

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QUESTIONS?

Pete Wright peter.wright@ny.usda.gov

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