Implications of Climate Change for Sustainable Implications of Climate Change for Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment

Professor Anthony Clayton

The implications of climate change for developmentThe implications of climate change for development

Professor Anthony Clayton, University of the West IndiesProfessor Anthony Clayton, University of the West Indies

UWI Faculty of Social Science UWI Faculty of Social Science June 2007June 2007

CO² and temperature riseCO² and temperature rise• Carbon emissions have raised global temperatures by 0.5°C.Carbon emissions have raised global temperatures by 0.5°C.• With BAU, there is >75% chance that global temperatures With BAU, there is >75% chance that global temperatures

will rise by 2-3°C over the next 50 years. There is a 50% will rise by 2-3°C over the next 50 years. There is a 50% chance that global temperatures could rise by 5°C.chance that global temperatures could rise by 5°C.

Environmental impactEnvironmental impact• Melting glaciers will increase flood risk, then drought.Melting glaciers will increase flood risk, then drought.• Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa.Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa.• Rising sea levels could displace 200 million people.Rising sea levels could displace 200 million people.• Up to 40% of species could become extinct.Up to 40% of species could become extinct.• There will be more frequent extreme weather patterns.There will be more frequent extreme weather patterns.

Report written by Sir Nicholas Stern for the UK government, published 30th October 2006

A Stern warning (part 2)A Stern warning (part 2)

Economic impactEconomic impact• A rise of A rise of 2-3°C2-3°C could reduce global GDP by 3%. could reduce global GDP by 3%.• A rise of 5A rise of 5°C°C could cost up to 10% of global GDP. The could cost up to 10% of global GDP. The

poorest countries would lose disproportionately more.poorest countries would lose disproportionately more.• Worst case scenario; the global economy could shrink Worst case scenario; the global economy could shrink

by 20% - permanently.by 20% - permanently.Cost of remedial actionCost of remedial action• Controlling this risk would require stabilizing emissions Controlling this risk would require stabilizing emissions

within the next 20 years then reducing by 1-3% pa. within the next 20 years then reducing by 1-3% pa. The transition to a low-carbon economy would cost 1% The transition to a low-carbon economy would cost 1% of GDP, mostly one-off expenditure (e.g. investment in of GDP, mostly one-off expenditure (e.g. investment in low-carbon technologies).low-carbon technologies).

Conclusion:Conclusion:• A one-off investment of $1 could avert a permanent A one-off investment of $1 could avert a permanent

reduction in annual income of $5-20.reduction in annual income of $5-20.

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2002 2030

OECDDeveloping

Share of world primary energy Share of world primary energy demanddemandShare of world primary energy Share of world primary energy demanddemand

Percent

Source: IEA

Changing problems, moving Changing problems, moving targets..targets..Changing problems, moving Changing problems, moving targets..targets..

China: now largest consumer of coal, 2China: now largest consumer of coal, 2ndnd largest consumer of largest consumer of oil, emits almost as much COoil, emits almost as much CO² as all 25 EU states combined.² as all 25 EU states combined.

Earth's temperature is dangerously high - Earth's temperature is dangerously high - NASANASA

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Researchers at Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies said Researchers at Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies said that Earth's temperature was now reaching its highest level in a that Earth's temperature was now reaching its highest level in a million years. Dr James Hansen, who led the study, said further million years. Dr James Hansen, who led the study, said further global warming of just 1°C could lead to big changes to the global warming of just 1°C could lead to big changes to the planet. “If warming is kept less than that, effects of global planet. “If warming is kept less than that, effects of global warming may be relatively manageable,” he said. “But if further warming may be relatively manageable,” he said. “But if further global warming reaches 2° or 3°C, the Earth may become a global warming reaches 2° or 3°C, the Earth may become a different planet [to] the one we know now. The last time it was different planet [to] the one we know now. The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about 3m years ago, when that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about 3m years ago, when sea level was about 25 meters (80 feet) higher than today.”sea level was about 25 meters (80 feet) higher than today.”

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The study showed that there was already a threat of more The study showed that there was already a threat of more extreme weather like the strong El Niños in 1983 and 1998, extreme weather like the strong El Niños in 1983 and 1998, when many countries around the world had devastating floods when many countries around the world had devastating floods and tornadoes.and tornadoes.

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Adapted from Hilary Osborne Tuesday September 26 2006 The Guardian

Hurricane Katrina, 2005, S E of New Orleans

The dispossessed.The dispossessed.

Flooding in Bangladesh

Methane Methane releaserelease

There are naturally-occurring greenhouse gases, mostly There are naturally-occurring greenhouse gases, mostly methane, trapped in cold sediments and Arctic methane, trapped in cold sediments and Arctic tundra.tundra.

There is ~400 gigatons of methane currently trapped in There is ~400 gigatons of methane currently trapped in frozen arctic tundra. If the temperature gets too high, frozen arctic tundra. If the temperature gets too high, and the tundra defrosts, this methane will be and the tundra defrosts, this methane will be released. Methane is >20 times more efficient than released. Methane is >20 times more efficient than CO² as a greenhouse gas, so this could cause CO² as a greenhouse gas, so this could cause ‘runaway’ climate change.‘runaway’ climate change.

- potential - potential disaster?disaster?

Western Siberia in 2005...thawed for the first time in 11,000 years…

Is this a solvable problem?

Previous environmental treaties have had partial success:

The Montreal Protocol, which limits CFC emissions.

The Basle Convention, which controls trans-boundary shipments of hazardous waste.

But these are relatively solvable problems compared to energy use; carbon emissions derive from the use of our primary energy sources.

Kyoto – redundant before Kyoto – redundant before ratifiedratified

• The US, the largest source of carbon emissions, has not The US, the largest source of carbon emissions, has not ratified the protocol, partly because it imposes no limits ratified the protocol, partly because it imposes no limits on the gases produced by developing countries.on the gases produced by developing countries.

• China, which is now the world’s biggest consumer of coal China, which is now the world’s biggest consumer of coal and second biggest consumer of oil, emits almost as and second biggest consumer of oil, emits almost as much carbon as the 25 members of the EU combined, much carbon as the 25 members of the EU combined, and will shortly overtake them to become the world’s and will shortly overtake them to become the world’s second largest source of carbon emissions, is exempt.second largest source of carbon emissions, is exempt.

• As a result of these non-ratifications and exemptions, UN As a result of these non-ratifications and exemptions, UN projections indicate that the treaty will reduce the projections indicate that the treaty will reduce the currently projected rise in average surface temperature currently projected rise in average surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8°C by 2100 by just 0.1%.of 1.4 to 5.8°C by 2100 by just 0.1%.

So how do we fix this?

Surging demandSurging demand

• Transport still only accounts for 14% global Transport still only accounts for 14% global emissions, less than power generation and land-use.emissions, less than power generation and land-use.

• However, air travel is the most However, air travel is the most rapidly-growingrapidly-growing source of carbon emissions. Air traffic has expanded source of carbon emissions. Air traffic has expanded at ~250% of average economic growth rates since at ~250% of average economic growth rates since 1959, driven by falling prices & growing demand.1959, driven by falling prices & growing demand.

• The world fleet now comprises ~16,000 commercial The world fleet now comprises ~16,000 commercial jet aircraft. These generate >600m tonnes of COjet aircraft. These generate >600m tonnes of CO²² per year – almost as much COper year – almost as much CO²² as Africa. as Africa.

• The growth in the demand for transport is one of the The growth in the demand for transport is one of the more difficult problems in slowing climate change.more difficult problems in slowing climate change.

So – can science and technology save the planet?

‘‘Free’ power?Free’ power?

The Severn estuary, between England and Wales, has an The Severn estuary, between England and Wales, has an enormous tidal range of 8 metres. The UK is enormous tidal range of 8 metres. The UK is considering a 10-mile long barrage across the estuary, considering a 10-mile long barrage across the estuary, enclosing 185 square miles of water.enclosing 185 square miles of water.

The power output would be 8,640 MW during flow, or The power output would be 8,640 MW during flow, or 2000 MW average power. This would provide 17 TWh 2000 MW average power. This would provide 17 TWh of power per year (about 6% of UK consumption), of power per year (about 6% of UK consumption), equivalent to about 18 million tons of coal or 3 nuclear equivalent to about 18 million tons of coal or 3 nuclear reactors. reactors.

Construction cost would be £12 billion, running costs Construction cost would be £12 billion, running costs about £70 million/year, estimated lifespan 200 years.about £70 million/year, estimated lifespan 200 years.

The proposed Severn barrageThe proposed Severn barrage

1 Ultraviolet sunlight passes through glass skin of cell 2 Light is captured in glass coated with nano-crystalline film 3 Nano-coating properties enable the glass to conduct electricity, which is used to separate the water into oxygen and hydrogen 4 Hydrogen gas is stored for later use as a power source

The solar-powered hydrogen station

The garage roof provides the The garage roof provides the fuelfuel

With a 10%-efficient cell, a seven square metre array would generate enough hydrogen to power a Mercedes A class car for 11,000 miles a year [in LA sunlight conditions] without having to go to a filling station.

The solar potentialThe solar potential

Projections suggest that by 2012-2015, large Projections suggest that by 2012-2015, large hydrogen cell farms (square miles of arrays in hydrogen cell farms (square miles of arrays in deserts) could produce hydrogen, untaxed, at deserts) could produce hydrogen, untaxed, at $1.80 to $3 a kilo, about a third of the price of $1.80 to $3 a kilo, about a third of the price of the same amount of power produced from the same amount of power produced from untaxed gasoline.untaxed gasoline.

The UK Government (2006) Code for Sustainable Homes

• The new code introduced a 6-point rating for new houses, with the target of making all new houses 100% more efficient by 2016. A Level 3 house requires no heating; the heat from appliances and the occupants is sufficient. A Level 6 house requires no energy inputs at all; it is a zero-energy, zero-carbon house.

• Prefabrication allows houses to be made almost airtight, eliminating heat gain or loss. Heat-sensor controlled air vents regulate temperature and airflow. Interior wall and ceiling panels absorb and release heat, reducing the need for air conditioning or heating. There are PVs and solar thermal panels, roof-mounted wind turbines, smart metering, biomass boilers utilizing wood pellets and the household’s own combustible waste, rainwater harvesting and grey water recycling.

1. Wind catcher for summer ventilation2. Solar thermal and PV panels on roof3. Thick wall insulation 4. Biomass boiler (wood pellets and household waste)

The UK’s first zero emission house

The solar arrays

India• A UNIDO project in India is building a model village of 100 energy-

efficient homes, average cost US$3,500 each, including PV power. The innovative use of local materials made the construction cost 30-50% cheaper than conventional buildings; for example:

• The use of wood fibre/hemp stalk mixed with cement to form building-blocks. One hectare of land can produce enough fibre for a house, so part of Jamaica’s farmland could supply a new construction industry.

• Straw bale walls - the straw is threshed, fireproofed, baled in wire and laid in courses on a concrete foundation, pinned together with rebar and rendered with limecrete. This gives good insulation & sound-absorbing qualities and is structurally sound to ~24 feet, enough for a 2 storey house.

• The application of a layer of external render of mixed hemp stalk and limecrete, coated on brick buildings to form an insulating layer.

• The use of unfired mud brick (adobe) and rammed earth to form walls. Some projects have used old tyres, filled with rammed earth, pinned together with vertical rebar, pointed with rammed earth and rendered with limecrete.

Biofuels

• Generation 1: cane/corn derived ethanol.

• Generation 2: cellulosic ethanol.

• Generation 3: synthetic genomics

Man-made microbe 'to create endless biofuel' Daily Telegraph 08/06/2007

• A scientist is poised to create the world's first man-made species, a synthetic microbe that could lead to an endless supply of biofuel. Craig Venter, an American who cracked the human genome in 2000, is applying for worldwide patents for Mycoplasma laboratorium, based on functionalised synthetic DNA.

• It is part of an effort to create designer bugs to manufacture hydrogen and biofuels, as well as absorb carbon dioxide and other harmful greenhouse gases. In theory, by adding DNA, the bacterium could be instructed to produce plastics, drugs or fuels.

• Mr Venter claims that the microbe could be the key to cheap energy production. The patent application specifically claims an organism that can make either hydrogen or ethanol for industrial fuels.

BP joins genetic pioneer for researchDaily Telegraph 14/06/2007

• BP has signed a development deal with Synthetic Genomics, a US company run by Craig Venter. As part of the agreement, BP has also made an equity investment in Synthetic Genomics, which is close to creating the first synthetic genetic codes, or genomes.

• In the first phase of the BP/Synthetic Genomics program, the research will focus on gaining a better understanding of microbial communities in various hydrocarbon formations such as oil, natural gas, coal and shale. Synthetic Genomics will use its expertise in reading the genetic codes of organisms, and growing them in the lab. Once the basic science research phases are complete, BP and Synthetic Genomics will jointly commercialize any discoveries, which could include microbes that can make fuel.

• "Through our research collaboration with BP, we will achieve a better understanding of the hydrocarbon bioconversion process which we are confident will yield substantial cleaner energy sources,“ said Dr Venter.

So – can we save ourselves?

Answer: potentially, yes…..with luck…

Thank you !Thank you !