Office of Coast Survey
Improving NOAA’s Capacity to Address Improving NOAA’s Capacity to Address Coastal Inundation EventsCoastal Inundation Events
Jesse C. Feyen, Ph.D.Jesse C. Feyen, Ph.D.Storm Surge Roadmap Portfolio ManagerStorm Surge Roadmap Portfolio Manager
Acting Deputy Chief, Coast Survey Development LaboratoryActing Deputy Chief, Coast Survey Development LaboratoryNational Ocean ServiceNational Ocean Service
Office of Coast Survey
NOAA’s Storm Surge Roadmap
• Plan for improving models, products and services– Addresses tropical and extratropical cyclones
• Cross-NOAA team of experts– NWS, NOS, and OAR experts in meteorology,
oceanography, observing, modeling, social science, …
Bottom line: comprehensive NOAA strategy to holistically address needs and establish a coordinated response
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Office of Coast Survey
Storm Surge Roadmap Vision
Highly accurate, relevant, and timely information
CLEARLY COMMUNICATEDwhich results in reductions in loss of life and
ensures communities are resilient
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Office of Coast Survey
Roadmap GoalsCustomers Ask:• Who will get flooded?• How much?• When?• What will the impacts
be?
Roadmap Goals:1. Accurately predict and assess
storm water levels– Total Water Level (TWL)
2. Intuitively describe inundation as flooding above ground level
3. Communicate actionable information
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• National Water Level Observational Network (NWLON)
– tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/nwlon.html
• Ingested by NWS into AWIPS and accessible via publicly available web services
– http://opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ioos-dif-sos/
• Preliminary data delivered to NWS for post-stormreports within days of a tropical cyclone
NOS Water Level Observations
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• Highlights real-time water level
and meteorological observations
at coastal locations affected by a
tropical cyclone
• Updated 4 times daily, following
NWS public advisories for tropical
cyclones impacting the U.S. coast
NOS Storm QuickLook
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook.shtml
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National Ocean Service working with the National Hurricane
Center (NHC) to alleviate confusion regarding tidal datums
• Inundation occurs when storm tide levels
reach normally dry ground, and NHC
forecasts describe flooding above ground
• Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) is
being used to approximate where
inundation could begin
• Storm Quicklook and NOS web services
include water level data relative to
MHHW
Clarifying Water Levels and Datums
Office of Coast Survey
Advancing Storm Surge Model Guidance
• NOS & NWS are building total water level models– Working to combine effects of storm surge, tides,
waves, and rivers into operational surge models
• Accelerating transition of research to operations– Partnering with researchers on new prediction
capabilities– Developing new operational models
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Office of Coast Survey
Upgrading Operational SLOSH Model: Tides
• NOS’ tide model coupled to NWS’ surge model• Added to operational probabilistic SLOSH guidance PSurge
– Utilizes hundreds of individual SLOSH tracks per forecast
Surge + Tides = SLOSH+Tides Surge + Tides = SLOSH+Tides
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Office of Coast Survey
• Extratropical Surge+Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) running in Atlantic• First operational surge model to
include tide signal
• Delivers surge, tide, and combined water level
• Output produced 4 times per day
• Being installed in AWIPS• Pacific version in development
Extratropical Surge and Tide Prediction
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml
http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/estofs/prod
http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/
Office of Coast Survey
ESTOFS Water Level Fields
EC2001 grid (NetCDF) NDFD 2.5 km CONUS grid (GRIB2)
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