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Financial focus Weekly Newsletter InFINeeti ISSUE 5 2013 VOLUME 1 TOP STORIES….…........1 MARKET ACTIVTY .....2 ECONOMICS ....... …... 3 TERM OF THE WEEK ….4 TRADING CALLS ..…….5 A one stop guide to know about all the recent happenings in the finance world TOP STORIES : INDIA MEGA DEAL:HOLCIM TO RAISE STAKE IN AMBUJA TO 61% Swiss cement giant, Holcim has decided to simplify structure of its Indian subsidiar- ies by increasing stake in Ambuja Cements from 50% to 61.39% and Ambuja, in turn will buy Holcim's stake in ACC. Post the deal Ambuja Cements will own 50.01% stake in ACC. In a statement, Holcim said it intends to streamline the ownership structure of its operaons in order to strengthen the exisng plaorm and create value for all stakeholders. The management stated both ACC & Ambuja Cements will remain separate enes post the deal. Financial focus RBI IMPOSES MORE CURBS ON GOLD IMPORTS On Monday, RBI released revised scheme for import of gold. More curbs on gold imports are likely to be announced in the coming days. RBI said at least 20% of the imported gold should be used for export only and should be kept in custom bonded warehouses. 80% of it must be used for enes in the jewellery business. The Apex Bank also said that the new gold import norms will not be applicable for SEZ units, trading houses. All aucons to be held under uniform price method. The new scheme raonalizes import of gold in any form or purity. WHY WARREN BUFFETT, POSCO ARE GIVING UP ON INDIA? Warren Buffe, Wal-Mart Stores, ArcelorMial and Posco are pulling back on invest- ments in India that they had announced with great fanfare. What's scaring foreigners away? A rampant polical dysfuncon that has stopped India's progress cold. The problem is an Indian government that won’t get out of its own way. The long debate over foreign-investment limits says it all. In September 2012, Prime Minister Manmo- han Singh’s government passed a law allowing big retailers to open stores directly in India, yet no one has
Transcript
Page 1: In fi neeti_newsletter_july_week 4

Financial focus Weekly Newsletter

InFINeeti

ISSUE 5 2013 VOLUME 1

TOP STORIES….…........1 MARKET ACTIVTY ….....2

ECONOMICS ....... …... 3

TERM OF THE WEEK ….4 TRADING CALLS ..…….5

A o n e s t o p g u i d e t o k n o w a b o u t a l l t h e r e c e n t h a p p e n i n g s i n t h e f i n a n c e w o r l d

TOP STORIES : INDIA

MEGA DEAL:HOLCIM TO RAISE STAKE IN AMBUJA TO

61%

Swiss cement giant, Holcim has decided to simplify structure of its Indian subsidiar-ies by increasing stake in Ambuja Cements from 50% to 61.39% and Ambuja, in turn will buy Holcim's stake in ACC. Post the deal Ambuja Cements will own 50.01% stake in ACC. In a statement, Holcim said it intends to streamline the ownership structure of its operations in order to strengthen the existing platform and create value for all stakeholders. The management stated both ACC & Ambuja Cements will remain separate entities post the deal.

Financial focus

RBI IMPOSES MORE CURBS ON GOLD IMPORTS

On Monday, RBI released revised scheme for import of gold. More curbs on gold imports are likely to be announced in the coming days. RBI said at least 20% of the imported gold should be used for export only and should be kept in custom bonded warehouses. 80% of it must be used for entities in the jewellery business. The Apex Bank also said that the new gold import norms will not be applicable for SEZ units, trading houses. All auctions to be held under uniform price method. The new scheme rationalizes import of gold in any form or purity.

WHY WARREN BUFFETT, POSCO ARE GIVING UP ON

INDIA?

Warren Buffett, Wal-Mart Stores, ArcelorMittal and Posco are pulling back on invest-ments in India that they had announced with great fanfare. What's scaring foreigners away? A rampant political dysfunction that has stopped India's progress cold. The problem is an Indian government that won’t get out of its own way. The long debate over foreign-investment limits says it all. In September 2012, Prime Minister Manmo-han Singh’s government passed a law allowing big retailers to open stores directly in India, yet no one has

Page 2: In fi neeti_newsletter_july_week 4

Financial focus Weekly Newsletter

InFINeeti

ASIAN-PACIFIC MARKETS CLOSE MIXED, WITH JAPAN

SLIDING

Asian-Pacific markets ended the week mixed as a rising yen sent Japan's Nikkei 225 tumbling 3% on Friday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.1%. China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.5%. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.1%. India's Sensex was down 0.4%.

SENSEX SNAPS 4-WEEK WINNING STREAK; PSU BANKS

DRAG

Sensex fell 56.57 pts. to end at 19748.19, Nifty at 5886.20, as PNB, SBI & BoI fell ahead of RBI policy. Disappointing earnings continued to hurt the market sentiment with the asset quality concerns impacting public sector lenders and reduction in discretionary spending pinching FMCG companies. (Friday— 26th July)

TOP STORIES : WORLD JAPAN STARTING TO WIN FIGHT AGAINST DEFLATION,

DATA SHOW

According to statistics, the Bank of Japan is starting to make progress in its effort to end 20 years of deflation. Consumer prices rose in June at the fastest yearly pace since November 2008. A year-on-year gain in the consumer price index, which doesn't count highly volatile prices for food, was 0.4%. It was the first time consumer prices rose in 14 months. The Tokyo core CPI, seen as a good indicator of what will happen to prices across the country, rose 0.3 percent in July after a 0.2 percent increase in June, in line with market expectations

ARGENTINA CHANGES APPROACH ON FOREIGN OIL IN-

VESTMENT

Rejecting its previously protectionist stance, Argentina is opening the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas field to foreign companies to halt a decline of energy production. Argentina has relaxed regulations to clear the way for a production contract worth $1.24 billion with U.S.-based Chevron. After years of nationalist rhetoric and protec-tionist policies, Argentina is seeking to lure foreign investment to its Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas field in an bid to jumpstart the country's energy sector and reverse a decline in output.

CHINA MANUFACTURING ESTIMATE REVEALS SHARP

DECLINE

A gauge of China's manufacturing activity fell for the third consecutive month in July, reaching an 11-month low. HSBC said its flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Man-agers' Index "deteriorated at the fastest rate for almost a year in July, signaling one of the steepest downturns seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis," including the

sharpest drop in the employment sector in more than four years.

MARKET ACTIVITY

Page 3: In fi neeti_newsletter_july_week 4

Financial focus Weekly Newsletter

InFINeeti

ECONOMICS U.S. AGENCY: WORLD SET TO USE 56% MORE ENER-

GY BY 2040

Driven largely by demand from China, India and other Asian countries, the world's consumption of energy will jump 56% by 2040, the U.S. Energy Infor-mation Administration said. "Rising prosperity in China and India is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand," said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. "This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets."

GM REPLACES TOYOTA AS WORLD'S TOP AU-

TOMAKER

For the first time in six quarters, General Motors has outsold Toyota Motor. GM sold 2.49 million vehicles in the second quarter, compared with Toyota's 2.48 million. GM also has reported Q2 earnings that top analysts' estimates. Toyota’s decline in Japan car sales shows a rare weak spot for a company that’s forecasting its biggest profit in six years and whose stock has gained 54 percent this year

ECB LIKELY IS FINISHED LOWERING RATES, ECON-

OMISTS SAY

A poll of 70 economists indicates that the European Central Bank likely won't reduce interest rates further, but it could take other steps to bolster the economy. "Further ECB measures should concentrate on improving credit conditions in the peripheral *Eurozone+ countries," said Kristian Toedtmann, an economist at DekaBank. "These measures could be targeted at the *asset-backed securities+ market. But it is difficult to say what exactly the ECB could or will do." However, the survey was conducted before another one was released suggesting growth in the Eurozone private sector

DID YOU KNOW?

Reliance Industries Ltd., one of India’s biggest conglomerates earned close to INR 8000 Crores only through its treasury opera-tions in the last fiscal (How many companies will ever reach that turnover?). It has cash reserves amounting to a whopping INR 83,000 Crores. The company’s treasury income accounted for 38% of its annual net profit in Financial Year - 2013

FOREX RESERVES TOUCH LOWEST LEVEL IN 3 YEARS TO REACH BELOW $280 BILLON

Country’s forex reserves fell by almost $1 billion to reach the lowest level in last 3 years. Total forex reserves $279.2 billion for the week ended July 19, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed on July 26th 2013. Last time forex re-serves were at $278.2 billion in the week ended July 2, 2010. Rupee meanwhile ended at a bit stronger on friday to end at Rs 59.04 against the dollar compared

to Thursday’s close of 59.11.

Page 4: In fi neeti_newsletter_july_week 4

Financial focus Weekly Newsletter

InFINeeti

Source : FLIP

Page 5: In fi neeti_newsletter_july_week 4

Financial focus Weekly Newsletter

InFINeeti

Jubilant Foodworks

Period CMP Call Target Stop Loss

1 week 1150 Sell 1076 1200

Avneet’s Call Last week FMCG stocks dragged the NIFTY lower by posting in line

expected results. The stock last week touched 1200 despite the bearish

mood in the market and lost the momentum by Friday. The stock is

already on downtrend with RSI close to 55 and reversal in (12, 26)

MACD is showing signs of weakness in the stock. Also the stock broke

the first Fibonacci support of 1160. With Q1 results coming on Friday,

we expect a short on the stock.

SKS Microfinance Period CMP Call Target Stop Loss

1 week 104 Buy 112 53.50

The stock closed above the 10 day moving average last Friday. By

closing above the 10 day moving average the stock has broke the re-

sistance level and 12 day MACD is showing signs of reversal by al-

most crossing 9 day MACD. With huge volumes last week and strong

Q1 numbers, the stock is expected to touch 112-115 this week.

DrReddy’s Lab Period CMP Call Target Stop Loss

1 week 2290 Buy 2400 -

The stock is making new life time highs for the past month. They have

launched the Alzheimer‟s Drug in US market on Saturday which would

boost its revenue and results expected on Tuesday to be better than the

last quarter. The US market is also expecting a good earnings season

this week. We expect the stock to hit new highs. “The call is high risk

& follows no technical indicator”.

Page 6: In fi neeti_newsletter_july_week 4

Financial focus Weekly Newsletter

InFINeeti

Bhushan’s Call

Dish TV

Period CMP Call Target Stop Loss

1 week 52.50 Sell 48.50 54

Dish TV has posted a net Q1 loss 30.4 cr, though the losses

have been trimmed Y-o-Y, the stock can still see some pres-

sure, owing to stressful margins. An engulfing Bearish pattern

has been formed on the daily candlestick chart, and the downward

momentum can take it to its strong support level of 47-48, and if

it breaks this support, it may slide down further. Going forward it

is a very good buy for long term when it starts realising the reve-

nues earned from digitization, and it starts recovering its invest-

HUL

Period CMP Call Target Stop

Loss

1 week 660 Sell 620 680

HUL has posted a sluggish growth in sales , with volume growth

slowing at 4% from 6% Q-o-Q, and 9% Y-o-Y. The inclusion of

stock in FTSE triggered it to go towards 725 levels, but with con-

sumer demand slowing, the correction in FMCG space can be fore-

seen. The stock has formed a „Three Black Soldiers; Bearish pattern

and it can recede back to its support level at 580. Also in F&O

space there has been strong building in OI on short side, and the

volumes are also higher on the decline. The downward trend will

strengthen after it closes below its 20 DMA at 637.

Yes Bank Period CMP Call Target Stop Loss

1 week 367.50 Buy 380 350

(Technical Call) The downward rally in Yes Bank seem to be

exhausted as all the negative news regarding the recent RBI poli-

cies has been discounted. The results have been quite excellent

with 38% in Net Profit, owing to higher interest income, robust

loan growth and improved margins. It has formed a Hanging

Man pattern on daily candlestick chart, and also RSI and Wil-

liams %R confirming the oversold levels. With market already

forming an opinion of RBI not decreasing of rates on its policy

announcement on 31 July, the downside is limited on this stock

Avneet Bhulania and Bhushan Kanathe are 2nd year students of IIFT (Kolkata campus)

Disclaimer : InFINeeti and IIFT do not take any responsibility regarding the authenticity of above calls. Please consult your financial

advisor before taking any investment decisions

Stock Name Call Target Price

Bajaj Auto Buy 2050

TARGET HIT

BHEL Sell 168

Maruti Suzuki Sell 1390

Vijaya Bank Sell 41

InFINeeti Team

Aakanksha Hajela

Bhushan Kanathe

Kunal Maheshwari

Vaibhav Garg

Md. Umair Ansari

Last Week’s Stock Calls that hit

their target levels


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