In memory of Jill Nakawatase

Beating the standard for heat, Seattle style By Eric Sorensen Seattle Times staff reporter

Seventy degrees and no relief in sight!

The city with a national reputation for drizzly dreariness notched a record yesterday — 50 consecutive days with a high temperature of 70 or warmer.

Europe buckling under heat wave

By Sebastian Rotella Los Angeles Times

MADRID, Spain — Summer vacation felt more like an inferno than an idyll in Europe yesterday as a heat wave stoked wildfires across the south and spiked record-high temperatures as far north as Britain.

Record-breaking summer may be harbinger of planet warming up CRAIG BROWN

It was a month that brought the hottest temperatures in the UK since records began, but also forest fires across Europe, a surge in heat-related deaths and even an appeal from the Pope to "grant the thirsty earth the coolness of rain".

In the news...

"I’ve had some briefings recently, and I’m becoming more convinced that the science proves there’s global warming" (Washington Times, May 21, 1999).

Climate Change Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Jisao 1999

How might forests respond?

From Zolbrod and Peterson (1999)

Olympic Mountains, WA

Spatial and temporal variability in tree growth-climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

Past dendroecological studies

• Altitudinal gradient

• Single species

• Influence of mesoclimate

Ettl and Peterson (1995)

Olympic Peninsula

Study design

• Multiple species, size classes

• Complete altitudinal gradient

• Wide array of aspects

• Different climatic regimes

• Temporal variability

Study site

Washington

Study questions

• What are the spatial and temporal patterns of growth variability?

• Is climate a driving factor of observed growth variability?

• Which climatic variables limit tree growth?• How might growth respond to future

climate?

Methods

Data collection

Core processing

Chronology development

Descriptive statistics

Factor analysis

Climate-growth correlations

Methods: Data collection

Hoh River watershed

Dungeness River watershed

Methods: Core processing

• Mounted and sanded

• Crossdated using skeleton plots

• Verified with COFECHA

• Ringwidths measured

• Quality control

Chronology development

Descriptive statistics

Factor analysis

Climate-growth correlations

Data collection

Core processing

Methods: Chronology development

• Ring widths diameter increments D t-1 = [Dt – (Bs * Dt)] – Rt

1 –Bs

• Diameter increment basal area increment BAI = π * (Dt/2)2 – π * (Dt-1/2)2

• Standardization

Factor analysis

Climate-growth correlations

Data collection

Core processing

Descriptive statistics

Chronology development

Methods: Chronology development

Dungeness-003

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

Stan

dard

ized

gr

owth

inde

x.

Hoh-003

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

Sta

ndar

dize

d

grow

th in

dex.

Methods: Descriptive statistics

• Mean BAI

• Intra/intersite correlation

• Mean sensitivity

• Common variance

• Slope

• Autoregressive model order

Factor analysis

Climate-growth correlations

Data collection

Core processing

Chronology development

Descriptive statistics

Methods: Factor analysisClimate-growth

correlations

Data collection

Core processing

Chronology development

Descriptive statistics

Factor analysis

Factor 1 scores

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

Factor 2 scores

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Methods: Factor analysis

Periods 1925-1946, 1947-1976, and 1977-2000 analyzed

Climate-growth correlations

Data collection

Core processing

Chronology development

Descriptive statistics

Factor analysis

Methods: Climate-growth correlations

Climate Data:• Divisional temperature and precipitation data

– Annual (Oct-Sept) and seasonal (June-Sept and Oct-May)

• Spring snowpack depth• Pacific Decadal Oscillation• PDSI• All variables lagged 1 and 2 years

Data collection

Core processing

Chronology development

Descriptive statistics

Factor analysis

Climate-growth correlations

• Pearson correlation coefficients:– Factor scores and individual site chronologies

• Correlations significant:– Coefficient (α<0.05)– Consistent among similar sites

Methods: Climate-growth correlations

Data collection

Core processing

Chronology development

Descriptive statistics

Factor analysis

Climate-growth correlations

Results

• Descriptive statistics

• Factor analysis

• Climate correlations

Results: Descriptive statistics

Dungeness watershed site distribution

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Ele

vatio

n (m

).

North

East

South

West

Results: Descriptive statistics

Hoh watershed site distribution

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

Ele

vatio

n (m

).

NorthEast

SouthWest

Results: Descriptive statistics# of Trees/ Cores/ Mean BAI Mean Common Intrasite Mean

Watershed sites site site (m2ha-1yr-1) sensitivity variance correlation slope

Dungeness 37 29 10 0.45 ± 0.21 0.21 ± 0.04 0.44 ± .10 0.45 ± 0.12 0.005

Hoh 34 20 10 0.46 ± 0.27 0.28 ± 0.05 0.37 ± .07 0.48 ± 0.14 -0.003

Mean BAI vs. elevation

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

0 500 1000 1500 2000Elevation (m)

Mea

n B

AI (

m2 ha

-1yr

-1)

Results: Descriptive statisticsIntersite correlation

Dungeness watershed

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Low elevation

High elevation

Mid elevation

Hoh watershed

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Low elevationMid elevation

High elevation

Ave

rage

cor

rela

tion

coef

f ici

ent

Results: Factor analysisFactor 1

-3

-1

1

3

Factor 2

-3

-1

1

3

Factor 3

-4

-2

0

2

Stan

dard

ized

gro

wth

inde

x

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Results: Factor analysis

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400Factor 1

Facto

r 2

Hoh high

Hoh mid

Hoh low

Dungeness high

Dungeness low

Dungeness mid

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500

Factor 2

Fact

or 3

Hoh low

Hoh mid

Hoh high Dungeness low Dungeness high

Dungeness mid

• Temporal stability • Spatial coherence

Results: Climate correlations

Factor 1

• Positive: PDSI, summer precipitation, winter temperature

Factor 1 scoresPDSI

Factor 1 and PDSI

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Standardized growth index

Results: Climate correlationsFactor 2

• Positive: summer temperature, previous year snowpack, previous year precipitation

• Negative: annual and winter precipitation, spring snowpack, PDSI

Factor 2 and winter precipitation

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Standardized growth index

Factor 2 scoresWinter precipitation

Results: Climate correlationsFactor 3

• No relationship with interannual climatic variability

• Negative: PDO and summer temperature at alternate time step

Factor 3 and PDO

-2

-1

0

1

2

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Standardized growth index

Factor 3 scoresPDO

Results: Site-climate correlations• Dungeness River watershed

Summer precipitation

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4Summer temperature

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Previous year summer precipitation

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4Previous year summer temperature

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

Cor

rela

tion

coe

ffic

ient

Increasing elevation

Results: Site-climate correlations• Dungeness River watershed

PDSI

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Spring snowpack

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3Winter temperature

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

Increasing elevation

Cor

rela

tion

coe

ffic

ient

Results: Site-climate correlations• Hoh River watershed

Winter precipitation

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

Spring snowpack

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

PDSI

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

Cor

rela

tion

coe

ffic

ient

Increasing elevation

Results: Site-climate correlations• Hoh River watershed

Summer temperature

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4Previous year winter precipitation

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Previous year spring snowpack

-0.2

-0.10

0.10.2

0.30.4

0.5

Cor

rela

tion

coe

ffic

ient

Increasing elevation

Discussion

• Growth-limiting factors

• Response to future climatic scenarios

• Spatial scale

• Future applications

Discussion: Growth-limiting factors Dungeness watershed

Summer precipitation Previous year summer precipitation PDSI Previous year summer temperature

Previous year summer precipitation Summer temperature Previous year summer temperature

Summer soil moisture deficit

Discussion: Growth-limiting factors Dungeness watershed

Spring snowpack Winter

temperature

Decreased spring runoff = less summer moisture ???

Earlier growing season with more favorable growing conditions

Discussion: Growth-limiting factorsHigh elevation Hoh watershed

Annual, winter precipitation PDSI

Spring snowpack Annual, summer temperature

Winter and spring snowpack

Growing season length

Discussion: Growth-limiting factors High elevation Hoh watershed

Previous year precipitation Previous year snowpack Previous year PDSI

Stan

dard

ized

inde

x

• Low to mid snowpack/ precipitation years follow high snowpack/precipitation years

• Years with heavy snow = short growing season - Accumulation of carbohydrate reserves

Winter precipitation

0.6

1

1.4

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Discussion: Growth-limiting factors Low elevation Hoh watershed

Picea sitchensis/Tsuga heterophylla

PDO and summer temperature

Summer soil moisture (Low-frequency)

Variable not considered (solar radiation)

Response to future climatic scenarios

By the 2050’s...

+5.3 F

+5%-33%

temperature precipitation snowdepth

Response to future climate scenarios: Dungeness watershed

Summer temperature

Summer precipitation

Productivity

Summer temperature Productivity

Summer temperature

Summer precipitationProductivity

?

)

Response to future climate scenarios: Hoh watershed

snowdepth

temperature

Productivity

summer temperature Productivity

Insensitive to climatic variability

Minimal change

Variation at multiple spatial scales

High High

Low Low

Altitudinal gradient

Growing season length

Summer moisture deficit

Climatic regimeWet, maritime Dry, continental

W NE

InsensitiveSummer

precipitation

Snowpackdepth

Summer temperature

Future applications

• Modeling• Dendroecological studies

Fine-scale spatial variability

Future applications• Resource managers

1) Sensitive areas

2) Management strategies

Timber productivity

• Planting tolerant species• Mixed species stands• Genotypes• Maintain healthy stands

Non-park lands

Carbon storage

• Structural retention• Longer rotations• Protecting of mature forests

National park lands

Biodiversity

• Connectivity• Well-distributed populations• Reserves• Genotypes

• Protecting mature forests

Carbon storage

Summary: forest resources and climate

Regional-scale studiesMountain hemlock, subalpine fir (complete)Douglas-fir (ongoing)

Subregional-scale studiesOlympic Mountains – All forest types (complete)North Cascade Range - All forest types (complete) - Paleoecology (complete) - Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine (nearly complete)

ModelingOlympic Mountains (complete)CLIMET transect (ongoing)

FireNorth Cascades paleo fire (complete)Washington (some complete, some ongoing)Western U.S. (some complete, some ongoing)

Update on CIG Forest Resources

CIG accomplishments• Lots of content added to CIG web site• New fact sheets• Jeremy Littell dissertation work on Douglas-fir

growth• Forthcoming Gedalof et al. publications

Program accomplishments• 5-year grant from USGS – Western Mountain

Initiative (http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/wmi)

• Recent and forthcoming publications• Upcoming Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium

THANK YOU!