India’s Energy Efficiency Potential

Transatlantic Energy Efficiency WorkshopUC Berkeley

Jayant SathayeLeader, International Energy Studies Group

Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley, CA

11 February 2011

India Primary Energy Consumption(1.15 billion population)

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

0

5

10

15

20

25

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

gas

Oil

Biomass

coal

EJ

Net Imports (% of Primary Energy Consumption)

1977 1987 1997 2007

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Coal Oil

Gas Elec

Chronic Electricity Shortages

Shedule (MW)

Net Exch. (MW)

-55 -31 10413 1076 11456 1942 13431 48.72-55 -27 9928 1055 11562 1811 12794 48.7839 67 10032 1061 12044 1708 12801 48.7886 118 9897 1420 12374 1660 12977 48.89

110 144 9634 1822 12415 1635 13091 48.9463 94 9803 1759 12854 1684 13246 48.95-9 16 9480 2564 13513 1761 13805 49.14-9 11 8887 3487 13781 1769 14143 49.269 8 8769 3646 14006 1770 14185 49.09

-9 9 9205 3649 13655 1768 14622 49.14-9 9 9794 3719 12384 1772 15285 49.27-9 8 9745 4036 12783 1799 15580 49.12-9 13 9471 4535 13183 1790 15796 49.19

FREQ. (HZs)

TPCL MSEDCL Catered Demand

(MW)

Load Shed. (MW)

MSEDCL Demand

(MW)

TPCL+REL

Demand (MW)

State Demand (MW)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MW

Hour

Maharashtra State April 28th, 2008

Electricity Shortage

Demand Met

S

29% peak shortage

National Scale: Peak Power Deficit – 12%; Electricity Deficit – 8%

CO2 Emissions of Selected Countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

GDP per ca (PPP, $2000)

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

pe

r ca

pita

(tC

O 2)

USA

Australia

UKSouth Africa

RussiaNetherlands

Mexico

India Brazil

China

France

Germany

Greece

Italy

JapanKorea

2006 Carbon Intensity: (kg CO2 per 2000 US$)

Japan: 0.24UK: 0.32India: 1.78USA: 0.51China: 2.68

India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) – 2008

INDIA -- NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (NAPCC) – 2008

• National Solar Mission (NSM)—Grid Parity

—To achieve volume production at a scale which leads to cost

reduction and rapid diffusion and deployment of solar

technologies across the country

• National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency—Scale Up— Provides mandate for market-based mechanisms to promote

energy efficiency— Industry, buildings, and power supply: Financing for each

End-use Applications

Competing technologies – • Lighting – Kerosene lamps• Cooking – Wood, coal, etc.• Water-heating – Electricity, LPG, etc.

Source: IIT Madras

Efficiency Scenario with No Shortage: Selected Efficiency Options

Sector Energy Efficiency

Options

Investment ($/kW)

Lifetime (years)

Daily Use

(hours/day)

Peak Load Coincidence

Factor

Savings (kW)

Res. CFLs 50 2.7 4.025% 75%

Res. T-5 FTLs** 125 2.5 4.025% 50%

Res. Refrigerators 850 10 8.0100% @33%

load factor30%

Res. Fans 534 10 8.025% 10%

Comm. T-5 FTLs 125 1.3 7.975% 50%

Ind. Motors 275 15 5.825% 5%

Agri.Water Pumping 195 15 4.5

25% 30%

Muni.Public Water Pumping 171 15 6.9

50% 10%

Muni. T-5 FTLs 125 1.3 7.750% 50%

BAU Scenario 1: Invest in supply capacity, but shortage continues

EE Scenario 2: Invest in efficiency, eliminate shortage by 2016 – plus bonus …

BAU Scenario EE Scenario

2017 6% Deficit 5% Surplus

Capex (2009-2017) Rs. 390 thousand crores

Rs. 380 thousand crores (incl. efficiency options)

Efficiency Options Lighting, fans, refrigerators, motors, agricultural and municipal water pumping

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pea

k L

oad

(M

W)

SEE Scenario

Actual and Projected Peak Demand

Actual and Projected Peak Supply Capacity

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pea

k L

aod

(M

W)

BAU Scenario:

Actual and Projected Peak Demand

Actual and Projected Peak Supply Capacity

Removal of Electricity

Shortage to Consumers (358 TWh

Removal of Electricity Shortage

to Producers (246 TWh)

Low Electricity Intensity

of Productive Sectors

Cumulative

Benefit: ~ $500 B

2009-2017 Cumulative Benefit

GDPGDP Cumulative

Benefit: Rs.2.4 million crores

Excluding > 50% of producers that have generator sets and inverters.

Macroeconomic “bonus” from efficiency: Rs.2.4 million crores ($500 billion) growth from improved productivity

Plus ….

• Carbon reduction bonus:312 million metric tonnes CO2

reduced (cumulative) 2009-2020

• Reduced import of coal and natural gas – Rs. 42.3 thousand crores

(US $9 billion)

BEE Schemes for Promoting Energy Efficiency in India – 2007-2012

Sharing what works:National, State and City MOUs —

USDOE-India Ministries of Power,

New and Renewable Energy, and Urban Development

California Energy Commission

California Public Utility Commission

Berkeley Lab

PG&E – Utility

Maharashtra State Regulators

Delhi State Regulators

Forum of Regulators (FOR- National)

Bureau of Energy Efficiency

Ahmedabad, Gujarat, Pune, Nainital, Pantnagar, Bangalore, etc.

15

• State-level DSM programs

• US ~20 states; India ~ 5 states

• Multi-state (RMSDP) or national DSM programs

• Under implementation in India

• International and global programs – SEAD

• India, US, Australia, Japan, Korea, UK, ++

Demand Side Management (DSM) Programs

Progress So Far …• $25 Million: India’s first utility-scale efficiency program in

Maharashtra; April 2008

• $10 Million: Delhi’s first efficiency program; June 2009

• Assisting Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) and Forum of Regulators (FOR) to implement multi-state DSM and efficiency programs

Television Savings Potential

Commercially Available Super Efficient Refrigerators

Commercially Available Super Efficient Fans

Next: West Bengal, Karnataka, Punjab, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh…National… International

Berkeley India Joint Leadership on Energy and Environment (BIJLEE)

• Data center efficiency

• Water arsenic removal

• Cookstoves

• India - Infosys partnership

• Research Institute for Sustainable Energy (RISE) – Molecular Foundry

• India -- Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and Chatterjee Group Partnership

TechnologyDevelopment

Science & Engineering

Research

Policy &Market

Transformation

• DSM Programs

• Efficiency labeling

• Buildings energy use

• Climate and forestry analysis

Initiated on October 3, 2008 by Director Chu and Chancellor Birgeneau

NSM : PROPOSED ROAD MAP

Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff CERC Norms

RE – Technologies India Needs Examples

• Gasification of agricultural waste to generate both fuel gas and electricity to village grid.

• Higher ambient temperatures in India adversely affect thin film PV performance. Need performance characterization studies for India, (e.g., Rajasthan’s desert regions)

• Land transportation of large wind turbine blades over roads and bridges is an issue.

• Need low wind speed turbine R&D • Water availability central solar thermal -- Need for R&D

on desalinization technology • Combined water heating and PV