Industrial policy Belgrade Feb 2011 - pks.rs za saradnju sa EU/Industrial policy... · Toute...

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Industrial policyBelgrade Feb 2011

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The reality of evolution : morphogenesis of productsGilbert Simondon, Konrad Lorenz

Evolution of the automobile, by Raymond Loewy

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Industrial revolution1750-1980 in Europe

Steel, cement Combustion

Taylorism

Microbiology

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Cognitive revolution1980-2180

Polymers Electricity

Optronics

Bio-ecology

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Internet penetration 2010world 28,7%

Fr 68,9Sp 62,6It 51,7Fi 85,3 D 79,1UK 82,5Port 48,1Swe 92,5Isl 97,6Nl 88,6Be 77,8Ir 65,8Dk 86,1

India 6,9Pakistan 10,4Kazakhstan 34,3Indonesia 12,3Thaïland 26,3China 31,6Vietnam 27,1Singapour 77,8Malaisia 64,6Taiwan 70,1Japan 78,2Hong-Kong 68,8Korea 81,1

Venezuela 34,2Mexico 27,2Brazil 37,8Peru 27,0Argentina 64,4Chile 50,0

Canada 77,7USA 77,3

Algeria 13,6Egypt 21,2South Africa 10,8Tunisia 34,0Morocco 33,0

Source : internetworldstats.com

15 years from now, more than 75% on the whole planet. Polycultural Internet. Beware of telecom operators !

Se 55,9Sk 74,3Sv 64,8Bo 31,2Ro 35,5Po 58,4Cz 65,5 Ru 42,8Gr 43,2Hu 61,8Cr 50Mn 44,1Ma 51Li 59,3Es 75,1La 67,8Al 43,5

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A large and growing number of products, especially in the high-tech area, consist of many different components that are manufactured in various parts of the world…

Trade in intermediates accounts for the largest part of overall trade, with an average share of about 50% of both imports and exports… The shift towards more knowledge-intensive sectors in the EU has led to an increasing role of imported intermediates.

Large supply chains

Clusters can be particularly helpful in linking research and commercial applications.

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BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have become more important for EU exports and imports. They increased their share in EU-27 imports by 5 percentage points during the last decade. Gains of market shares can in general be related to relative price changes or increased product quality.

most countries are both exporters and importers of intermediates, which blurs the common perception of certain countries being predominantly outsourcing or target countries.

Internationalisation

creative industries are among the fastest growing sectors in the EU

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Detailed information from a leading European mobile phoneproducer on supply chains shows that Europe captures 55%of a particular phone’s total value added. The phone wasassembled both in Europe and China. When it wasassembled and sold in Europe, the European shareaccounted for 68%. But even when it was assembled inChina and sold on the US market, Europe still captured asmuch as 51% of the value. This shows that the finalassembly, though important, represents only a fraction ofthe overall value added of a high-tech product like a mobilephone. The value is largely detached from the physicalflows of goods within the supply chain. The major parts ofthe value are attributed to design, R&D, brand, marketingand distribution, and management of these activities.

Opportunities

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The time barrier

We are not living in an information society, but in a« disinformation society »

Classical economics assumed that actors were perfectly informed lucid and watchful. The basic assumption being false, the theory is not valid any more

Desorientation is everywhere :hyperchoice, cognitive overlaod…

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The automotive industry has one of the highest shares of parts and components trade. During the recent recession its exports and imports registered the biggest falls, of some 45% compared to before the crisis. Such disruptions to international supply chains might have resulted from changes in the sourcing strategies of multinational corporations, such as shifting to domestic suppliers.

Vulnerability

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Instability since 1985 :176 crises (Stiglitz)MexicoIndonesia ThaïlandKorea and JapanRussiaArgentina…New technologiesSubprime…

What is doing the merchant ruling classSince it has unshared power :

Bubbles !!

Will the next bubble be green ?

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Mesopotamia, -3000 : markets -> city statesPhenicians…. Hanseatic league… still markets19th century : industrial manpower20th century : services -> 50% world population in cities

Why do we have cities ?

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Urban population 2005

Asia51%

Europe16%

Africa10%

North America10%

Latin America13%

Migration to cities

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Mesopotamia, -3000 : markets -> city statesPhenicians…. Hanseatic league… still markets19th century : industrial manpower20th century : services -> 50% world population in cities

Why do we have cities ?

21st century : research, teaching, culture

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Sophia Antipolis : dans une pinède de 2 400 ha

1 300 entreprises du monde entier30 000 emplois en recherchedans les TIC, les Sciences de la vie,l'énergie, la gestion de l'eau, les risques, le développement durable.

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QuickTime™ et undécompresseur

sont requis pour visionner cette image.

Nancy-Brabois technopolis:

* 500 hectares* 285 firms* 15 000 employments* 17 000 students,

*7 engineer schools* 2500 researchers.

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Paris-Saclay project Nov 2008In 2020 : 47 000 students17 000 public researchers (10 % national), 20 000 private researchers (10 % national), plus 35 000 newcomers (students included)

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GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION: GRENOBLE - FRANCE

MINATEC IDEAsLaboratory ®

MINATEC

http://www.ideas-laboratory.com/

http://www.ideas-laboratory.com/

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There ‘s Plenty of Room at the Bottom

Richard Feynman American Society meeting, California Institute of Technology December 1959

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Medical Application:Scanner Parallel

Nanotube based

X-ray tubes

Nanotube based

X-ray detectors

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ATOMIC FORCE MICROSCOPE

- images of very small devices

- and displacement of very small devices

A fine extremity moves a carbon fiber

Nanotube

Very fine point

The point is loweredAnd pushes the nanotube

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Quantum corral (Iron on copper)

Rectangular corral (Iron on copper)Stadium corral (Iron on copper)

Image museum IBM

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http://www.aerospace-valley.com/



# 94 000 emplois# 1 300 établissements# 8 500 emplois dans la recherche# 1er pôle français d’enseignement supérieur

Leader mondial sur le marché :- des avions civils de plus de 100 places- de l’aviation d’affaires haut de gamme- des turbines à gaz de petite et moyenne puissance pour hélicoptères- des trains d’atterrissage- des batteries d’aéronefs

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Climate change

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Rains and droughts

Business as usual IPCC scenario

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Bedzed (UK), Freiburg (D)

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Demography : simulation 1.8 child/woman tendency

Inversion of the age pyramid

maximum then decline

Europe+CEI+Amérique

du nord

Amérique du sud

Chine+Japon+Océanie

Inde+Asie sud

est+moyen orient

Afrique

Océans, Espace

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

10000000

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200

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World population

Men Women

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Europe

Men Women

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Africa

Men Women

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- the inventor (provides the concept)- the entrepreneur (takes in charge)- the facilitator (wipes out difficulties)- the godfather (protects the germ)- the information gatekeeper

Five roles in the innovation process:

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http://2100.orghttp://gaudin.org

Thanks for your attentionMerci de votre attention

Thierry Gaudin

http://2100.org/

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The evolution of human species

is worrying

A challenge to reason

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Whenever youstudy or not,there is no futurefor you…

Rich and poor poeple at 100 meters from each others

Critical times are coming

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Globalisation=insecurity

-> search for autonomy

Global currencies (€,$…)

And complementary currencies :

Lets, Sel, WIR, Saber, buckeroo...

Example : Argentina

The response of the poor

http://www.selidaire.org

http://www.selidaire.org/

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Resilience (F) Efficiency (A)

(Diversity + Interconnections) (Streamlined)

Sustainability Optimum

0%

100%

Window of

Viability

© B. Lietaer

Systemic innovation in money

Dedicated complementary currenciesFor ISO 21000 implementation ?

http://lietaer.com

http://www.slcotesdarmor.fr/associations/monnaies-alternatives/

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Evaluation of industrial policies for the cognitive civilization ?

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The Enablers capture the main drivers of innovation performance external to the firm andit differentiates between 3 innovation dimensions. The Human resources dimension includes3 indicators and measures the availability of a high-skilled and educated workforce. Thenew Open, excellent and attractive research systems dimension includes 3 indicators andmeasures the international competitiveness of the science base. The Finance and supportdimension includes 2 indicators and measures the availability of finance for innovationprojects and the support of governments for research and innovation activities.

Firm activities capture the innovation efforts at the level of the firm and it differentiatesbetween 3 innovation dimensions. The Firm investments dimension includes 2 indicators ofboth R&D and non-R&D investments that firms make in order to generate innovations. TheLinkages & entrepreneurship dimension includes 3 indicators and measures entrepreneurialefforts and collaboration efforts among innovating firms and also with the public sector.The Intellectual assets dimension captures different forms of Intellectual Property Rights(IPR) generated as a throughput in the innovation process.

Outputs capture the effects of firms innovation activities and it differentiates between 2innovation dimensions. The Innovators dimension includes 3 indicators and measures thenumber of firms that have introduced innovations onto or within their organisations,covering both technological and non- technological innovations and the presence of high-growth firms. The indicator on innovative high-growth firms corresponds to the newEU2020 headline indicator, which will be completed within the next two years. TheEconomic effects dimension includes 5 indicators and captures the economic success ofinnovation in employment, exports and sales due to innovation activities.

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Great programs

Obstacles reductionTechnical culture

Innovation policy http://6CP.net

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Technical culture :

Access to information (Internet & telecom)

Clusters and technopolis (Universities of technology)

Special attention to medium level skills

Design policy and training

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Maison passive à Darmstadt







thermographiePrincipes

Echangeurs

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Maison passive selon le site ekopedia

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liège

Fibre textile (Emmaüs)Chanvre

Cellulose

Diversité des matériaux

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Le futur ou le passé ?

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Le relai à 1 Km

La parabole et l’antenne émettricesur la mairie

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Le wi-fi de Vaour (Tarn) dès 2004 :

248 habitants15 abonnés

Le pont wi-fi

Chez RobinLa boîte deRicoré ->

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Obstacles to innovation :

Openness to new competitors

Regulations/deregulation

Public procurements rules (SBA)

Assessment from the individual entrepreneur

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Département de l’Ain:Très Haut Débit, exemples des enjeux

Pour l’activité locale :

Tous les services internet des entreprises du

département pourront être hébergés dans le

département ;

Toutes les données des entreprises de l’Ain

pourront être sauvegardées dans le

département ;

Salle d’hébergement au CERN

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Pour les administrations :

Toutes les mairies et tous les EPCI de l’Ain pourront signer électroniquement leurs

documents administratifs et les échanger électroniquement avec les autres

collectivités et administrations

L’accueil en vidéoconférence pourra être généralisé.

Très Haut Débit : exemples des enjeux

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Pour les administrations :

Sans oublier la généralisation du SIG pour l’administration des ressources et

du territoire, avec mises à jours automatisées depuis le SIEA ;


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Pour les habitants :

Toute personne de l’Ain pourra faire du télétravail avec vidéoconférence Haute-

Définition à partir de son domicile ou de sa commune ;


Les bureaux partagés du téléspace de Villard-de-Lans

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Radio et TNT Haute Définition convergent sur le réseau;


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La télévision sur mesure :


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Ils partagent leurs connaissances et savoirs


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Great Programs

Fitness to 21st century needs

Inducing new skills for contractors

Cooperation & competition international

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Evaluate the great programs for the

cognitive civilization ?

64Shrinking cities

DetroitGlasgowLeipzig…

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Rebuilt another way : Bedzed

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Masdar, cité futuriste écologique

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Global water interconnection in India46 rivers connected by 30 canals: 10000Km

Great public works

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Mediterranean desalination plants (>1000m3/day)

Great public works

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Crane Airships

Innovation : hydrogen plane (website EADS)

Innovation : the compressed air hybrid car (MDI)

QuickTime™ et undécompresseur TIFF (non compressé)


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“Palm Jumeirah” artificial island“World project” - 300 Islands - 2B$Nakheel, Dubai, 2001 - 2007

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Ocean citiesAnd other

floating structures

Great public works

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Biosphere II

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Techno-Nature

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http://2100.orghttp://gaudin.org

Thanks for your attentionMerci de votre attention

Thierry Gaudin

http://2100.org/

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Planetary garden

To take care of Nature, mankind will have to live in Nature

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http://ec.europa.eu/researh/innovation-union

Promoting excellence in education and skills developmentDelivering the European Research AreaFocusing EU funding instruments on Innovation Union prioritiesPromoting the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) as a model of innovation governance in EuropeEnhancing access to finance for innovative companiesCreating a single innovation marketPromoting openness and capitalising on Europe's creative potentialSpreading the benefits of innovation across the UnionIncreasing social benefitsPooling forces to achieve breakthroughs: European Innovation Partnerships

Leveraging our policies externallyReforming research and innovation systemsMeasuring Progress

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A new visionThe « struggle for life » vision is a marginal part of life, the natural looping. Since 800 MYears, The core essence of life is made of cooperation: symbiosis of cells, organs, individuals, organisations and species.This cooperation, made of information exchanges, recognition and aknowledgement processes is « the rise of consciousness »Facing the limits of the planet, the persistence of the strugglefor life vision would lead to « collapse » (Jared Diamond)The evolution of consciousness needs a great step forward.Some scientists have already moved that waySome politicians are trying to promote itSome firms are building a new « green lobby » (see ISO 21000)

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Declining :DominationConquestPerformance

Rising :EmpathyIndividuationResilience

The values

De WaalSimondonCyrulnik

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Foresight for 21st century

From Homo Coca-colensis

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Village autonomy and free softwaretowards a human-friendly capitalism ?

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Internet dans dix ans ?

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Le relai à 1 Km

La parabole et l’antenne émettricesur la mairie

V

Le wi-fi de Vaour (Tarn) dès 2004 :

248 habitants15 abonnés

Le pont wi-fi

Chez RobinLa boîte deRicoré ->

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Les technopoles

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sont requis pour v isionner cette image.





Sophia Antipolis est une technopole située dans une pinède de 2 400 hectares sur la commune de Valbonne Sophia Antipolis, à côté d'Antibes entre Nice et Cannes

1 300 entreprises du monde entier et près de 30 000 emplois directs en recherche scientifique de pointe dans le domaine des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC),des multimédias, sciences de la vie (médecine et biochimie),l'énergie, la gestion de l'eau, des risques, du développement durable.

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Great programs

Obstacles reductionTechnical culture

Innovation policy http://6CP.net

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European competitiveness report, Oct 2010

GROWING IMBALANCES AND EUROPEAN INDUSTRY

TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS AND EU MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAINS

FOREIGN CORPORATE R&D AND INNOVATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

EUROPEAN COMPETITIVENESS IN KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS OF THE CREATIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE EU

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Charles et Robert: l’hydrogène

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Les produits dérivés

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La baladeuse 1903

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MEMS

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Il faut imaginer le nanotube comme une molécule

avec ses mouvements de vibration propres

Vibrations d’un nanotube de carbone mono-paroi

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Xénon sur du nickel monocristallin (Xenon on nickel 110)

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Mirage quantique

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