Industry Outlook Presentation December 2011

8/2/2019 Industry Outlook Presentation December 2011

1/17

To represent, lead and serve the airline industry

The outlook for airtransport marketsand the industryDecember 2011www.iata.org/economics
http://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economics


2/17

Airline cash flows down by Q3 but not bad

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

% r

e v e n u e s

EBITDA as % revenues, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bloomberg

USairlines

Q3

Asia-Pacificairlines

Europeanairlines
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3/17

Asset utilization underpinned profitability

Passenger load factor and aircraft utilization, seasonally adjusted

Source: IATA

73%

74%75%

76%77%

78%

79%

80%

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Single aisle aircraftutilization

Passenger load factor

A v e r a g e

d a

i l y h o u r s

f l o w n

% A

S K

s
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4/17

Fall of cargo: utilization hard to sustain

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

270

290

310

330

350370

390

410

430

450

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

F T K s p e r m o n

t h , b

i l l i o n

R P K s p e r m o n

t h ,

b i l l i o n

Total air travel and air freight volumes, seasonally adjusted

FTKs

RPKs

Source: IATA
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5/17

Fragile EU foundation to air travel strength

Segment flow data, % growth year to September

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

TransAtlantic Within Europe Europe-Asia TransPacific Within Asia

Freight Passengers

Sources: IATA
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6/17

International trade has stopped growing

-25

-20-15

-10

-50

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011

% c

h a n g e o v e r y e a r

Premium passengers and world trade growth

Sources: IATA, CPB Netherlands

International trade in goods

Premium passenger numbers
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7/17

Business confidence has slumped

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2008 2009 2010 2011

Air freight and purchasing managers confidence (advanced 2 months)

Sources: IATA, Haver

Growth in purchasingmanagers confidence

Growth in air freight
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8/17

EU austerity budget measures increase

0

0.2

0.40.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

EU US OECD

2010 2011 2012

Change in non-interest Government deficit as a % of GDP
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9/17

Airlines: slow or no growth markets in 2012

Growth in global air travel (RPK) and air freight (FTK)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Air travelgrowth(right scale)

Air freightgrowth

Source: IATA
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10/17

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

40

50

6070

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% ch

an

g ev

er s u s pr evi o

u s y e a

r

U S $ p e r b a r r e

l

Oil price(left scale)

Industrialproductiongrowth(right scale)

Supply squeeze keeps fuel price relatively high

Brent oil price and world industrial production growth

Source: OECD
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11/17

Airline profits forecast to fall further in 2012

Source: IATA

-30-25-20

-15-10-5

0510

1520

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1 F

2 0 1 2 F

U S $ b i l l i on %

r e v e n u e s

Global commercial airline profitability

Net posttax losses(right scale)

EBIT margin(left scale)
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12/17

European airlines hit hardest in 2012

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

EuropeNorth

AmericaAsia

PacificMiddleEast

LatinAmerica Africa

% o

f r e v e n u e

Net post -tax profits as a % of revenues

2010 2011F 2012F

Source: IATA
http://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economicshttp://www.iata.org/economics


13/17

Eurozone is still not out of trouble

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2008 2009 2010 2011

Italy

Spain

France

UK

Sweden

10-year Government bond spreads over Germany, % points
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14/17

Eurozone will need additional financingBudget deficits and refinancing needs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Italy & Spain Greece EFSF 'rescue fund'

Refinancingneed 2011

Budgetdeficit2011

b i l l i o n

Sources: Bloomberg
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15/17

OECDs assessment of the downside risk

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Eurozone US China World

The OECD's assessment of the downside risk to GDP

2011

2012 central forecast

2012 OECD scenario
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16/17

Little chance of other markets

escaping EU crisis

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

I n d e x e d

t o e q u a

l 1 0 0 i n 2 0 0 4

Passenger flows by major route area

Pacific

N. Atlantic

Within AsiaWithin Europe

Europe-Asia

9-11dot.com bust SARS

Greatrecession

Volcanic

ash cloud
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17/17Source: IATA

-30-25-20

-15-10-5

0510

1520

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1 F

2 0 1 2 F

U S $ b i l l i on %

r e v e

n u e s

Global commercial airline profitability

Net post

tax losses(right scale)

EBIT margin(left scale)

OECD scenario would push

airlines back into loss

Bankingcrisis

scenario

Centralforecast
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Industry Outlook Presentation December 2011

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