INFRASTRUCTURE CLIMATE RISK INFRASTRUCTURE CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT: ASSESSMENT: principles and Applications principles and Applications David Lapp, P.Eng. David Lapp, P.Eng. Manager, Professional Practice, Engineers Canada Manager, Professional Practice, Engineers Canada Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Committee (PIEVC) City of Castlegar, BC City of Castlegar, BC February 4, 2010 February 4, 2010
• There is adaptive capacity because of maintenance & rehabilitation
• Conversely, poor maintenance and lack of rehabilitation contributes to vulnerability
Guiding PrinciplesGuiding Principles
The climate is changingThe climate is changing
Climate change threatens the ability of Climate change threatens the ability of engineers to safely and effectively design engineers to safely and effectively design infrastructure to meet the needs of infrastructure to meet the needs of Canadians Canadians
Calls into question current rules and design Calls into question current rules and design standardsstandards
Design, operation and maintenance practices Design, operation and maintenance practices must adapt must adapt
Climate change engineering vulnerability Climate change engineering vulnerability assessment is one tool to aid in the assessment is one tool to aid in the adaptation processadaptation process
The Past IS NOT the FutureThe Past IS NOT the Future
The Past is the Future
Current Trend
Un-quantifiedRisk
How do Small Changes Lead to How do Small Changes Lead to Catastrophic Failure?????Catastrophic Failure?????
• Design CapacityDesign Capacity• Safety FactorSafety Factor• Impact of age on Impact of age on
structurestructure• Impact of unforeseen Impact of unforeseen
weatheringweathering• Design LoadDesign Load• Change of use over Change of use over
timetime• Severe climate eventSevere climate event
FailureFailure
Some ObservationsSome Observations• A small change can have a dramatic impactA small change can have a dramatic impact
• Design safety margins may not last through the Design safety margins may not last through the full operational life of an infrastructure systemfull operational life of an infrastructure system– Margins may be consumed by day-to-day Margins may be consumed by day-to-day
uses/activitiesuses/activities
• Failure often arises from a combination of eventsFailure often arises from a combination of events– Many of which we do not normally monitorMany of which we do not normally monitor
• Climate change can affect both the load and Climate change can affect both the load and capacity of a structurecapacity of a structure
• Smaller measures can mitigate risk if we act Smaller measures can mitigate risk if we act earlyearly– Changes in maintenance practiceChanges in maintenance practice– Measuring and monitoringMeasuring and monitoring
More ObservationsMore Observations• Vulnerability assessment is predictiveVulnerability assessment is predictive
• We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure modes based on forecast information modes based on forecast information
• But how much confidence do we have in But how much confidence do we have in the prediction?the prediction?
• In order to effectively address the issue In order to effectively address the issue we need to assess:we need to assess:– The likelihood of the event The likelihood of the event – The level of service disruptionThe level of service disruption
• Without this assessment there is Without this assessment there is insufficient context to properly manage insufficient context to properly manage the issuethe issue
⇒ ⇒ = RISK ASSESSMENT= RISK ASSESSMENT
Climate Change Risk Mitigation through Climate Change Risk Mitigation through AdaptationAdaptation
FloodFlood FloodFlood
FloodFlood
Climate ChangeClimate ChangeA
daptation
Adaptatio
n
Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Vulnerability Assessment and Risk MitigationMitigation
FloodFlood FloodFlood
FloodFlood
Climate ChangeClimate ChangeA
daptation
Adaptatio
n
Engineering Vulnerability Assessment
Risk Mitigation
More ObservationsMore Observations• Vulnerability assessment is predictiveVulnerability assessment is predictive
• We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure modes based on forecast information modes based on forecast information
• But how much confidence do we have in But how much confidence do we have in the prediction?the prediction?
• In order to effectively address the issue In order to effectively address the issue we need to assess:we need to assess:– The likelihood of the event The likelihood of the event – The level of service disruptionThe level of service disruption
• Without this assessment there is Without this assessment there is insufficient context to properly manage insufficient context to properly manage the issuethe issue
• Partnership between Engineers Canada and Partnership between Engineers Canada and Natural Resources CanadaNatural Resources Canada
• Oversee a national engineering assessment Oversee a national engineering assessment of the vulnerability of public infrastructure to of the vulnerability of public infrastructure to climate changeclimate change
• Facilitate the development of best Facilitate the development of best engineering practices that adapt to climate engineering practices that adapt to climate change impactschange impacts
• Utilize results to facilitate reviews of Utilize results to facilitate reviews of infrastructure codes and standardsinfrastructure codes and standards
PIEVC MembershipPIEVC Membership
NRCanNRCan Transport CanadaTransport Canada Environment CanadaEnvironment Canada Infrastructure CanadaInfrastructure Canada Public Works and Public Works and
Government Services Government Services CanadaCanada
National Research National Research CouncilCouncil
Alberta Infrastructure Alberta Infrastructure and Transportationand Transportation
The Protocol is a step by The Protocol is a step by step process, derived from step process, derived from standard risk management standard risk management techniques, to assess techniques, to assess impacts of climate change impacts of climate change on infrastructureon infrastructure
and operators to effectively and operators to effectively incorporate climate change incorporate climate change adaptation into design, adaptation into design, development and decision-development and decision-makingmaking
A Five Step ProcessA Five Step Process
Seven Case StudiesSeven Case Studies
ThermosyphonFoundations
Quesnell BridgeEdmonton
VancouverSewerage Area
Portage la Prairie Water Treatment Plant
PlacentiaWater Resources
OttawaBuildings
SudburyRoads & Accessories
• Water resources systems
• Storm & wastewater systems
• Roads & bridges
• Buildings
Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility
Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility
Floods, ice jams, ice build up Control dam structure
Floods, ice jams, ice build up, intense rain
Intake well & pump
Drought Water source
Ice storms, hail, intense rain, tornadoes
Power supply, communications, operations staff
Recommendations• Improve emergency preparedness for extreme events• Improve flood protection• Planned infrastructure improvements to account for climate change
Metro Vancouver: Vancouver Sewerage Area Case Study
Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area
Recommendations• Identify stand by power requirements • Emergency response plan• Determine if additional effort at sewer separation might be required• Further assess flooding potential at wastewater treatment plant
Recommendations• Design drainage system for increased peak rain• Review monitoring / maintenance / operations procedures • Material selection/design (e.g. based on new temperatures ranges)• Perform sensitivity analyses• Review / update climatic data in bridge design code • Assess other bridges that would be sensitive to scour; slope instability; wind; softening foundations / settlement
Recommendations• Historical or culturally valuable buildings may need a longer time horizon • Identify stand by power requirements• Further assessment of buildings located on permafrost
• Progress report on National Engineering Assessment issued in June, 2008 (www.pievc.ca)
• Contribution Agreement with Natural Resources Canada for Phase III of the PIEVC work in place since mid-April 2009
• Any interested parties may use the Protocol at no charge through a license agreement with Engineers Canada – provide results for the national knowledge base
PIEVC: Key Directions – 2009-2011
• Increase number of case studies (regionally and functionally)
• Develop and compile national knowledge base• Update and refine PIEVC Engineering Protocol
– Module for ROM costing of adaptation alternatives, refine terminology, etc.
• Focused information dissemination- practitioners, students, educators- nationally and internationally
• Development and delivery of training workshops
Going forward
Identify critical infrastructure• Human health & safety• Life line structures / transportation
corridors• What damage can we live with / repair
(economics)• Component design life• Incorporate better climate information
into planned works (new & upgrades / maintenance)
Questions Questions
For more information on Engineers For more information on Engineers Canada and PIEVC please contact:Canada and PIEVC please contact:
David Lapp, P.Eng.David Lapp, P.Eng.
Manager, Professional PracticeManager, Professional Practice
Engineers CanadaEngineers Canada
180 Elgin Street, Suite 1100180 Elgin Street, Suite 1100
