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IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency INPRO Scenario Analysis and Nuclear Energy System Assessment (NESA) 14 th INPRO Dialogue Forum Jon R. Phillips INPRO Section June 2017
IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
INPRO Scenario Analysis and Nuclear Energy System Assessment (NESA)
14th INPRO Dialogue Forum
Jon R. PhillipsINPRO Section
June 2017
IAEA
Nuclear Energy System (NES) Strategic Planning: 3 linked Parts
2
National Energy Planning:How does nuclear energy fit into the national energy mix?
Nuclear Energy System Assessment (NESA):
INPRO Methodology of sustainability assessment
What are the gaps?
Nuclear Energy System (NES) modelling and the ‘GAINS Framework’: How do we get there from here?
IAEA 3
Modelling NES Development and Progress Toward Sustainability: The GAINS Framework
• The collaborative project GAINS was initiated by MS as a part of INPRO project
• The objective was to develop a common framework for modelling global, regional and national NES to support sustainable development
• The purpose of a GAINS scenario modelling is to facilitate understanding of long-term outcomes in different potential NES architectures – to achieve sustainable NES growth while minimizing financial, environmental, and political risks
• Comparative analysis of key indicators from various scenarios can inform strategic NES planning and decision making
IAEA
INPRO Scenario Modelling & Analysis Tools
Framework for scenario modelling and analysis (GAINS, MESSAGE-NES) is derived from certain high level INPRO Methodology topics:
Areas for scenario analysis are evaluated through material stock and flow simulations treating facilities as “lumped capacity” models that communicate materials, equipment and value through system links
Major areas of analysis include:- resource availability- associated power capacity curves for nuclear reactor models involved- production, radioactivity and radiotoxicity of waste- demand and distribution in fuel cycle services- estimates of costs / required investment flows- limited non-proliferation and security considerations- trade effects
Important sustainability areas including safety cannot be adequately addressed in scenario analysis since they involve specific design details of facilities and equipment that cannot be treated in a lumped capacity model.
4
IAEA
SYNERGIES: Scenario Analysis Applied to Specific Case Studies
• LWR mono-U/Pu recycling• Multi-recycling Pu-management in LWR+FR• FR-centred scenarios• Transition to Th/233U via U/Pu HWR-LWR-FR
Phase• Alternative Complete U/Pu/Th-cycle• Scenarios with advanced MA management
SYNERGIES final report is in publication
5
IAEA
SYNERGIES Case Studies
6
Specific scenario case studies performed by Member State participants:
IAEA
Ongoing Scenarios Projects: KIND and ROADMAPS• Key Indicators (KIND) collaborative project
further refines concept of key indicators for NES sustainable development analysis and uses standard multicriteria decision theory approaches for aggregate analysis
• ROADMAPS collaborative project formalizes approaches to document storylines of sustainable development and specific actions necessary – what, where, when?
7
IAEA
Nuclear Energy System Scenarios –Analysis and Sustainable Future
Today• Reactors
• water cooled – modest thermal efficiency
• Large units• Fuel resource
• Natural/enriched U –limited natural resource
• Limited U/Pu mono recycle – MOX
• Most SNF is stored and accumulating
• HL waste and direct SNF disposal
• National repository development programmes
• Most trade in reactor and front end services
8
The Future?• Reactors
• Water, gas, metal and salt cooled, double the range of thermal efficiencies• Large and small modular units
• Fuel resource• Diverse and indefinite supply• U, U/Pu, Th/U-233
• SNF inventory in equilibrium with reactor fleet capacity• HL waste and limited direct SNF disposal
• National and regional repositories in operation• MA incinerated and disposed
• Trade distributed more uniformly across sectorsimproves economics
Developing system analysis and assessment tools to evaluate cooperativestrategic paths to asustainable future…
IAEA
Even if only a few countries master innovative technologies of fast reactors and closed fuel cycles within this century, others could benefit from this through trade in fuel services.
E.g., global accumulation of spent fuel could be reversed. The synergistic approach could also secure uranium resource savings of up to 40%, over a heterogeneous non-synergistic case (severely limited back end trade).
Example finding: trade cooperation can dramatically influence important outcomes
IAEA
Example finding: achieving equilibrium of spent fuel storage
Scenarios with the introduction of a limited number of fast reactors to support multi-recycling of plutonium in LWRs and in fast reactors
LWR-UOX SFR LWR-MOX
SFR-PuLWR-Pu
LWR-MOX-Pu
IAEA 11
EXAMPLE FINDING: BENEFITS FOR SUSTAINABILITY FROM TRADE COOPERATION ON RD&D ECONOMICS
RD&D investments on innovative technology are large and provide reasonable pay-back times only in the case of large scale deployment of technology. Cooperation among countries that allows large scale deployment, improves the economics of innovation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 20 30 40 50 100
Pe
rio
d o
f R&
D r
etu
rn, y
r
Total installed capasities, GWe
Return of RD&D, demonstration and construction investments for innovative reactor technology (FR)
New capacity 1 GWe/yr,
R&D 00
R&D 10
R&D 20
R&D 30
R&D 40
Chart1
1010101010
2020202020
3030303030
4040404040
5050505050
100100100100100
R&D 00
R&D 10
R&D 20
R&D 30
R&D 40
Total installed capasities, GWe
Period of R&D return, yr
Return of RD&D, demonstration and construction investments for innovative reactor technology (FR)New capacity 1 GWe/yr,
0
33.8198889747
53.514837167
70.72135955
108.6397779494
0
22.2574185835
33.8198889747
44.6227766017
53.514837167
0
17.90711985
27.0818510678
33.8198889747
40.8142397
0
14.9099444874
22.2574185835
28.360679775
33.8198889747
0
15.5470053838
23.3299316186
29
34.0940107676
0
12.1649658093
18.5470053838
24.1421356237
29.3299316186
Rate
R&D10R&D20R&D40R&D00
R&D 00R&D 10R&D 20R&D 40-5300000000
25044526197-5200000000
50034425191-5100-30000-0.030
100029374686-5000-90000-0.090
200026354483-4900-180000-0.180
-4800-300000-0.30
-4700-450000-0.450
-4600-630000-0.630
-4500-840000-0.840
-4400-1080000-1.080
-4300-1350000-1.350
-4200-1650000-1.650
-4100-1980000-1.980
-4000-2340000-2.340
-3900-2730000-2.730
-3800-3150000-3.150
-3700-3600000-3.60
-360-30-408000-0.03-4.080
-350-90-459000-0.09-4.590
-340-180-513000-0.18-5.130
-330-300-570000-0.3-5.70
-320-450-630000-0.45-6.30
-310-630-693000-0.63-6.930
-300-840-759000-0.84-7.590
-290-1080-828000-1.08-8.280
-280-1350-900000-1.35-90
-270-1650-975000-1.65-9.750
-260-1980-1053000-1.98-10.530
-25-30-2340-113400-0.03-2.34-11.340
-24-90-2730-121800-0.09-2.73-12.180
-23-180-3150-130500-0.18-3.15-13.050
-22-300-3600-139500-0.3-3.6-13.950
-21-450-4080-148800-0.45-4.08-14.880
-20-630-4590-158400-0.63-4.59-15.840
-19-840-5130-168300-0.84-5.13-16.830
-18-1080-5700-178500-1.08-5.7-17.850
-17-1350-6300-189000-1.35-6.3-18.90
-16-1650-6930-199800-1.65-6.93-19.980
-15-1980-7590-210900-1.98-7.59-21.090
-14-2340-8280-222300-2.34-8.28-22.230
-13-2730-9000-234000-2.73-9-23.40
-12-3150-9750-246000-3.15-9.75-24.60
-11-3600-10530-258300-3.6-10.53-25.830
-10-4080-11340-270900-4.08-11.34-27.090
-9-4590-12180-283800-4.59-12.18-28.380
-8-5130-13050-297000-5.13-13.05-29.70
-7-5700-13950-310500-5.7-13.95-31.050
-6-6300-14880-324300-6.3-14.88-32.430
-5-6930-15840-338400-6.93-15.84-33.840
-4-7590-16830-352800-7.59-16.83-35.280
-3-8280-17850-367500-8.28-17.85-36.750
-2-9000-18900-382500-9-18.9-38.250
-1-9750-19980-397800-9.75-19.98-39.780
0-10-20-400-0.01-0.02-0.040
Rate
R&D 00
R&D 10
R&D 20
R&D 40
New capasities, MWe/yr
Period of R&D return, yr
Return of RD&D, demonstration and construction investments for innovative reactor technology (FR)Total installed capasities 10 GWe,
Лист2
3060120
incrementR&D10R&D20R&D40R&D001234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829
30-55
-54
-5330313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100
-520000
-510000
-5000-0.030
-4900-0.090
-4800-0.180
-4700-0.30
-4600-0.450
-4500-0.630
-4400-0.840
-4300-1.080
-4200-1.350
-4100-1.650
-4000-1.980
-3900-2.340
-3800-2.730
-3700-3.150
-3600-3.60
-350-0.03-4.080
-340-0.09-4.590
-330-0.18-5.130
-320-0.3-5.70
-310-0.45-6.30
-300-0.63-6.930
-290-0.84-7.590
-280-1.08-8.280
-270-1.35-90
-260-1.65-9.750
-250-1.98-10.530
-24-0.03-2.34-11.340
-23-0.09-2.73-12.180
-22-0.18-3.15-13.050
-21-0.3-3.6-13.950
-20-0.45-4.08-14.880
-19-0.63-4.59-15.840
-18-0.84-5.13-16.830
-17-1.08-5.7-17.850
-16-1.35-6.3-18.90
-15-1.65-6.93-19.980
-14-1.98-7.59-21.090
-13-2.34-8.28-22.230
-12-2.73-9-23.40
-11-3.15-9.75-24.60
-10-3.6-10.53-25.830
-9-4.08-11.34-27.090
-8-4.59-12.18-28.380
-7-5.13-13.05-29.70
-6-5.7-13.95-31.050
-5-6.3-14.88-32.430
-4-6.93-15.84-33.840
-3-7.59-16.83-35.280
-2-8.28-17.85-36.750
-1-9-18.9-38.250
Cap500inv/tconstr0.20-10-20-4000000000000
inv2000idc0.105126251-10.2-20.2-40.2-0.2-0.2000000000
re0.052-10.6-20.6-40.6-0.6-0.4-0.200000000
Lf0.76Cret0.05838181353-11.2-21.2-41.2-1.2-0.6-0.4-0.20000000
Tlife604-12-22-42-2-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2000000
Cconst55-13-23-43-3-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200000
CIDC210.25256-14.0467444365-24.0467444365-44.0467444365-4.0467444365-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20000
Ctot2210.25257-15.0351070596-25.0351070596-45.0351070596-5.0351070596-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2000
koef0.05282818458-15.9650878692-25.9650878692-45.9650878692-5.9650878692-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200
Cu116.76362692189-16.8366868654-26.8366868654-46.8366868654-6.8366868654-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20
Cret0.058381813510-17.6499040481-27.6499040481-47.6499040481-7.6499040481-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
Tret18.929289525111-18.2047394173-28.2047394173-48.2047394173-8.2047394173-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
INV112-18.5011929731-28.5011929731-48.5011929731-8.5011929731-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
0.1051262513-18.5392647154-28.5392647154-48.5392647154-8.5392647154-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
R&D10204014-18.3189546443-28.3189546443-48.3189546443-8.3189546443-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
15-17.8402627597-27.8402627597-47.8402627597-7.8402627597-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
16-17.256444625-27.256444625-47.256444625-7.256444625-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
17-16.6726264904-26.6726264904-46.6726264904-6.6726264904-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
18-16.0888083558-26.0888083558-46.0888083558-6.0888083558-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
19-15.5049902212-25.5049902212-45.5049902212-5.5049902212-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
CI_IDC200020-14.9211720866-24.9211720866-44.9211720866-4.9211720866-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
721-14.337353952-24.337353952-44.337353952-4.337353952-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
622-13.7535358174-23.7535358174-43.7535358174-3.7535358174-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
523-13.1697176828-23.1697176828-43.1697176828-3.1697176828-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
0.240.2431012524-12.5858995482-22.5858995482-42.5858995482-2.58589954820.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
0.230.23152525-12.0020814136-22.0020814136-42.0020814136-2.00208141360.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
0.220.220526-11.418263279-21.418263279-41.418263279-1.4182632790.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
0.210.2127-10.8344451443-20.8344451443-40.8344451443-0.83444514430.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
0.200.228-10.2506270097-20.2506270097-40.2506270097-0.25062700970.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
210.252529-9.6668088751-19.6668088751-39.66680887510.33319112490.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
2210.252530-9.0829907405-19.0829907405-39.08299074050.91700925950.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
31-8.4991726059-18.4991726059-38.49917260591.50082739410.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
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8811.72719856681.7271985668-18.272801433221.72719856682.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
8912.31101670142.3110167014-17.688983298622.31101670142.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9012.8948348362.894834836-17.10516516422.8948348362.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9113.47865297063.4786529706-16.521347029423.47865297062.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9214.06247110524.0624711052-15.937528894824.06247110522.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9314.64628923994.6462892399-15.353710760124.64628923992.72734708462.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9415.23010737455.2301073745-14.769892625525.23010737452.7857288982.72734708462.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9515.81392550915.8139255091-14.186074490925.81392550912.84411071152.7857288982.72734708462.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9616.39774364376.3977436437-13.602256356326.39774364372.90249252492.84411071152.7857288982.72734708462.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9716.98156177836.9815617783-13.018438221726.98156177832.96087433842.90249252492.84411071152.7857288982.72734708462.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9817.56537991297.5653799129-12.434620087127.56537991293.01925615192.96087433842.90249252492.84411071152.7857288982.72734708462.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
9918.14919804758.1491980475-11.850801952528.14919804753.07763796533.01925615192.96087433842.90249252492.84411071152.7857288982.72734708462.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
10018.73301618218.7330161821-11.266983817928.73301618213.13601977883.07763796533.01925615192.96087433842.90249252492.84411071152.7857288982.72734708462.66896527112.61058345762.55220164422.49381983072.43543801732.37705620382.31867439032.26029257692.20191076342.143528952.08514713652.0267653231.96838350961.91000169611.85161988261.79323806921.73485625571.67647444231.61809262881.55971081531.50132900191.44294718841.3845653751.32618356151.2678017481.20941993461.15103812111.39778255771.53940074421.68101893071.82263711731.96425530382.10587349032.04749167691.98910986341.930728051.87234623651.8139644231.75558260961.69720079611.63881898271.58043716921.52205535571.46367354231.40529172881.34690991541.28852810191.23014628841.1717644751.11338266151.05500084810.99661903460.93823722110.87985540770.82147359420.76309178070.70470996730.64632815380.58794634040.52956452690.47118271340.41280090.35441908650.29603727310.23765545960.17927364610.12089183270.06251001920.0041282058-0.0542536077-0.1126354212-0.1710172346-0.2293990481-0.2877808615-0.346162675-0.4045444885-0.4629263019-0.5213081154-0.5796899289-0.6380717423-0.6964535558-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
Лист2
-55-55-55-55
-54-54-54-54
-53-53-53-53
-52-52-52-52
-51-51-51-51
-50-50-50-50
-49-49-49-49
-48-48-48-48
-47-47-47-47
-46-46-46-46
-45-45-45-45
-44-44-44-44
-43-43-43-43
-42-42-42-42
-41-41-41-41
-40-40-40-40
-39-39-39-39
-38-38-38-38
-37-37-37-37
-36-36-36-36
-35-35-35-35
-34-34-34-34
-33-33-33-33
-32-32-32-32
-31-31-31-31
-30-30-30-30
-29-29-29-29
-28-28-28-28
-27-27-27-27
-26-26-26-26
-25-25-25-25
-24-24-24-24
-23-23-23-23
-22-22-22-22
-21-21-21-21
-20-20-20-20
-19-19-19-19
-18-18-18-18
-17-17-17-17
-16-16-16-16
-15-15-15-15
-14-14-14-14
-13-13-13-13
-12-12-12-12
-11-11-11-11
-10-10-10-10
-9-9-9-9
-8-8-8-8
-7-7-7-7
-6-6-6-6
-5-5-5-5
-4-4-4-4
-3-3-3-3
-2-2-2-2
-1-1-1-1
0000
1111
2222
3333
4444
5555
6666
7777
8888
9999
10101010
11111111
12121212
13131313
14141414
15151515
16161616
17171717
18181818
19191919
20202020
21212121
22222222
23232323
24242424
25252525
26262626
27272727
28282828
29292929
30303030
31313131
32323232
33333333
34343434
35353535
36363636
37373737
38383838
39393939
40404040
41414141
42424242
43434343
44444444
45454545
46464646
47474747
48484848
49494949
50505050
51515151
52525252
53535353
54545454
55555555
56565656
57575757
58585858
59595959
60606060
61616161
62626262
63636363
64646464
65656565
66666666
67676767
68686868
69696969
70707070
71717171
72727272
73737373
74747474
75757575
76767676
77777777
78787878
79797979
80808080
81818181
82828282
83838383
84848484
85858585
86868686
87878787
88888888
89898989
90909090
91919191
92929292
93939393
94949494
95959595
96969696
97979797
98989898
99999999
100100100100
R&D10
R&D20
R&D40
R&D00
yr
billion US$
Return of RD&D, demonstration and construction investments for innovative reactor technology (FR)New capacity 0.5 GWe/yr, Total installed capasities 5 GWe
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-0.03
0
0
0
-0.09
0
0
0
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0
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0
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0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
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0
0
0
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0
0
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0
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0
0
0
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0
0
0
-3.15
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
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0
0
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0
0
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-5.7
0
0
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0
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0
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0
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0
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0
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0
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0
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-5.7
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0
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0
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0
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0
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0
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-24.6
0
-3.6
-10.53
-25.83
0
-4.08
-11.34
-27.09
0
-4.59
-12.18
-28.38
0
-5.13
-13.05
-29.7
0
-5.7
-13.95
-31.05
0
-6.3
-14.88
-32.43
0
-6.93
-15.84
-33.84
0
-7.59
-16.83
-35.28
0
-8.28
-17.85
-36.75
0
-9
-18.9
-38.25
0
-10
-20
-40
0
-10.2
-20.2
-40.2
-0.2
-10.6
-20.6
-40.6
-0.6
-11.2
-21.2
-41.2
-1.2
-12
-22
-42
-2
-13
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500_5_T_1000
incrementR&D10R&D20R&D40R&D001234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829
30-55
-54
-5330313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100
-520000
-510000
-5000-0.030
-4900-0.090
-4800-0.180
-4700-0.30
-4600-0.450
-4500-0.630
-4400-0.840
-4300-1.080
-4200-1.350
-4100-1.650
-4000-1.980
-3900-2.340
-3800-2.730
-3700-3.150
-3600-3.60
-350-0.03-4.080
-340-0.09-4.590
-330-0.18-5.130
-320-0.3-5.70
-310-0.45-6.30
-300-0.63-6.930
-290-0.84-7.590
-280-1.08-8.280
-270-1.35-90
-260-1.65-9.750
-250-1.98-10.530
-24-0.03-2.34-11.340
-23-0.09-2.73-12.180
-22-0.18-3.15-13.050
-21-0.3-3.6-13.950
-20-0.45-4.08-14.880
-19-0.63-4.59-15.840
-18-0.84-5.13-16.830
-17-1.08-5.7-17.850
-16-1.35-6.3-18.90
-15-1.65-6.93-19.980
-14-1.98-7.59-21.090
-13-2.34-8.28-22.230
-12-2.73-9-23.40
-11-3.15-9.75-24.60
-10-3.6-10.53-25.830
-9-4.08-11.34-27.090
-8-4.59-12.18-28.380
-7-5.13-13.05-29.70
-6-5.7-13.95-31.050
-5-6.3-14.88-32.430
-4-6.93-15.84-33.840
-3-7.59-16.83-35.280
-2-8.28-17.85-36.750
-1-9-18.9-38.250
Cap500inv/tconstr0.20-10-20-4000000000000
inv2000idc0.105126251-10.2-20.2-40.2-0.2-0.2000000000
re0.052-10.6-20.6-40.6-0.6-0.4-0.200000000
Lf0.76Cret0.05838181353-11.2-21.2-41.2-1.2-0.6-0.4-0.20000000
Tlife604-12-22-42-2-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2000000
Cconst55-13-23-43-3-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200000
CIDC210.25256-14.0467444365-24.0467444365-44.0467444365-4.0467444365-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20000
Ctot2210.25257-15.0351070596-25.0351070596-45.0351070596-5.0351070596-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2000
koef0.05282818458-15.9650878692-25.9650878692-45.9650878692-5.9650878692-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200
Cu116.76362692189-16.8366868654-26.8366868654-46.8366868654-6.8366868654-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20
Cret0.058381813510-17.6499040481-27.6499040481-47.6499040481-7.6499040481-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.9883626231-1.0467444365-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
Tret18.929289525111-18.2047394173-28.2047394173-48.2047394173-8.2047394173-0.7548353692-0.8132171827-0.8715989962-0.9299808096-0.
