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Parallel Session: Activities and Programs of EU-IndiaCooperation on climate change and adaptation policies:

Research Agenda on Impacts and Adaptation

Sumana Bhattacharya and Aditi DassWinrock International India

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Building And Strengthening Institutional Capacities in ClimateChange

A 2 yr project to:– support implementation of UNFCCC/Kyoto– assist DC negotiations on future climate policy

Activities include– Policy analysis, workshops, networking, mentoring at

national & international level– Focused on major developing countries: India, China, Brazil

& South Africa

Led by Institute of Development Studies, Sussex

Supported by European Commission, Environment Directoratewith co-financing from China, UK DEFRA, IDS & WRI

About BASIC

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Over 20 research & policy institutions/40 individuals, mostly from BASICcountries, working with international experts on wide range of climatetopics:– Vulnerability & Adaptation (India Team)– Mitigation, SD & Energy (China Team)– Carbon markets & national institutional issues (S.Africa Team)– International negotiations on future climate regime (Brazil Team)– Setting up DC experts network (Full Team)

Project Team

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The BASIC Project covers key issues likely to affect the development of the climatechange regime at the domestic and international level

- mitigation- adaptation- technology and- salient legal, institutional and procedural considerations

through three core components:

• Supporting in-country institutional capacity• Strengthening capacity to analyse and put forward future

action proposals and understanding others’• Strengthening the negotiation skills and expertise base

for developing countries relating to climate negotiations

Project Activities

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Winrock International India (WII)Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)Technology Innovation Forecasting Assessment Council (TIFAC)Energy Environment Analytics (E2A)Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology (MANIT)

India Country Team

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BASIC INDIA TEAM

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Division of Resources and Environment, Ministry of Science andTechnology

Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of AgriculturalScience (CAAS)

Research Centre for Sustainable Development, The ChineseAcademy of Social Science (CASS)

Global Climate Change Institute (GCCI), Tsinghua University

China Country Team

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Brazil:Institute for Advanced Studies, University of Sao Paulo

South Africa:Palmer Development GroupGlobal Climate Change Sub-directorateAir Quality Management Directorate, Department of Environmental Affairs &TourismIMBEWU Enviro-Legal ConsultantsSouthSouthNorthThe City of Cape Town

Country Team

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Outputs

Analytical papersdevelopment of new methodological toolsin-country workshops supporting national climate policy processes &

networking among national & international expertsS.Africa: National Climate Change Conference October,Oct. 2005Beijing: Workshop on Economic Modelling and SD Policies,

Feb 2006Delhi: Workshop on Adaptation Practices & Policy, May2006Brazil: Future Climate Policy, August 2006Outreach workshops with OECD, Paris 2005 & COP 11,COP12 etc.

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Outputs of the India Team

A briefing paper on lessons learnt from Indian’s Initial NationalCommunication to UNFCCC (WII)

A paper on current initiatives in the area of climate change adaptationresearch in India (WII)

A paper on Next Generation Tools for Assessing Vulnerability andAdaptation (IITB)

A paper on indicators for assessing vulnerability and adaptation capacityto droughts and floods(WII)

A Handbook on Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation tools (E2A)

Paper on Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Management andlinkages with climate change adaptation (TIFAC)

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Next Generation Tools for AssessingVulnerability and Adaptation

This paper has developed a comprehensive framework ofvulnerability assessmentencompasses various dimensions, and suggests an index

which can be quantified and compared over a period oftime.Extends the framework to analyse the determinants ofadaptations anddevelops an adaptive efficiency tool

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Vulnerability

RiskExposure –Uncertainty

Adaptation

URVA Framework

Vulnerability

RiskExposure –Uncertainty

Adaptation

URVA Framework

A Conceptual Framework

Exposure to climate change relatedevents create uncertaintiesUncertainty issues are addressed byconverting them into risksThe inability to manage risk effectivelydue to a variety of factors results invulnerabilityAdaptation essentially reducesvulnerability and more effectivelymanages risks through copingstrategies which enhance adaptivecapacity.

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Vulnerability Index

Demographic Climatic Occupational

•LiteracyRate•AgeSpecificMortality

•Variance inannualrainfall•Variance inPeak seasonRainfall•Frequencyof extremeevents•Temperature

Agricultural

•Variation inCroppingIntensity•Ratio GNCA•Variation inArea underCultivation•Variation inIrrigationIntensity•Variation inYield ofPrincipal Crop

•OccupationalConcentration•EmploymentRatio

Infrastructure

•CombinedInfrastructureIndex

•GenderInequality•IncomeInequality•Incidence ofPoverty•Transience inpoverty

Inequality &Poverty

Dimensions and Sources of Vulnerability

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Framework for Assessing Adaptive Efficiency

Climate Change Risk

Outcomes / Scenarios

Final Impact on Population / Region

Impact

Poverty Infrastructure Demography Economy

Vulnerability Context of Population / Region

A d a p t i v e E f f i c i e n c y

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Indicators for Assessing Vulnerability andAdaptation Capacity to Droughts and Floods

The paper focuses on understanding and quantifying the vulnerability ofIndia to climate extremes such as drought, flood and cyclone.Vulnerability has been assessed using two aggregation procedures–one based on simple averaging of normalized indicators and anotherbased on fuzzy inference system.Also two separate sets of indicators – one based on structuredcharacterization of vulnerability with focus on specific stress andspecific output sector, and another based on general vulnerabilitycharacterization – are developed and usedThe empirical analysis is carried out using state level data andvulnerability assessment is presented for three chosen states, namelyAndhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and OrissaThe analysis is done over two time periods 1990-1991 and 1999-2000to understand the transition in vulnerability and adaptation capacities

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Selection of study area

Droughts : Rajasthan, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are most severelyaffected states (based on various criteria). Andhra Pradesh is selectedfor analysis as the state– has initiated some innovative management practices in recent times

to tackle the recurring problem of drought.– But the vulnerability of affected population in Andhra Pradesh is still

considered highand hence it is considered useful to identify the potentialimpediments in the implementation of the programs.

Floods: Analysis of damages due to floods in India across states overthe period 1953-2000, indicates that Uttar Pradesh is the mostseverely affected region due to floods and is hence chosen forvulnerability analysis.

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CyclonesThe eastern states/districts in India are more adversely affected by thecyclonic storms than the western states/districts

Among the eastern states Orissa is most frequently affected bycyclonic storms and is chosen for vulnerability analysis.

During the period 1877 to 1990 the frequency of severe storms,storms and depressions was highest in the districts of Puri, Cuttak andBalasore (Patnaik and Narayanan, 2005), indicating the vulnerabilityof Orissa to cyclonic storms.

Super cyclone in late 1990s exposed many mal-adaptation practices(such as destruction of mangroves) that severely affected the peopleof Orissa

therefore worth analyzing the post-super cyclone response strategiesthat the state and people have undertaken.

Selection of study area

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Andhra PradeshBetween the two time periods considered the exposed population and exposedactivity have both slightly increased leading to overall increase in exposure.

In terms of sensitivity despite decrease in both socio-economic and technologicalsensitivity, the state witnessed increase in agricultural sensitivity (i.e., relativelylower commercialization in 1999-00 compared to 1990-91) and as a result theoverall sensitivity only marginally decreased.

In the adaptive capacity dimension, while human and government capacity haveimproved over the period, the coping options showed sharp decline resulting in aslight decrease in the overall adaptive capacity.

Put together slight increase in exposure and decrease in adaptive capacity arecountered partly by the marginal decrease in sensitivity and the vulnerability levelremained almost static over the period. This seems meaningful given continuingconcerns about the vulnerability of the state to drought. This concern is alsoreflected through more and more assistance given by the central government to thestate government over the years for tackling drought problem.

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Slight increase in exposed population is compensated by decline in theexposed activity and the overall exposure decreased slightly.

Marginal decline in socio-economic sensitivity and significant decline intechnological sensitivity are negated slightly by the increase in the agriculturalsensitivity.

The overall sensitivity showed decline over the period.

All components of adaptive capacity dimension contributed positively andoverall adaptive capacity showed significant improvement over the period.

Put together since all the three dimensions contributed towards reducing thevulnerability the state witnessed drop in its vulnerability to flood over theperiod.

Uttar Pradesh

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Orissa

In Orissa the exposure to cyclone remained high and in fact slightlyincreased as both exposed population and exposed activity haveincreased.

Reasonable decline in socio-economic sensitivity coupled with a slightdecline in technological sensitivity (the state however continues tobe one of the technologically most backward states in the country),countered increased agricultural sensitivity to reduce the overallsensitivity marginally.

Impressive strides made in improving the human capacity are negatedby decline in government capacity and access to coping options andthe overall adaptive capacity registered drop over the period.

Put together the vulnerability of the state to cyclone remained more orless static over the period and at alarmingly high level.

� � � � �A Handbook of Vulnerability Assessment andAdaptation Tools

The tools described in the hand book have been taken form various sourcesand efforts have been made to refer to all possible reference. The handbook describes the tools in three different sections;

1. Impact and vulnerability (I&V) assessment tools2. Adaptation policy assessment tools3. Integrated vulnerability assessment and adaptation tools4. Assessment of tools and their applicability in India.5. Next generation tools for assessing vulnerability and adaptation

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Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Managementand Linkages with Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change adaptation and disaster management frameworks have thematic aswell as institutional linkages and there can be various approaches formainstreaming adaptation to climate change in disaster management

Integration of climate change adaptation concerns in disaster management will needto be taken up at three levels –

integrating adaptation to longer term climate scenarios with the disastermitigation and response interventions;regularising the network to take up climate change adaptation within thedisaster management framework; andfacilitating permeability among the parallel structures within the commonactors in both frameworks.Robust policy measures to enhance the capacity of the interface institutionsand also individuals who will be the carriers of knowledge from oneframework to the other will be requiredstrong legislative base, can be an effective entry point for integratingclimate change adaptation concerns with the disaster managementinitiatives.