Internet on Democratization

Samantha AndersonMin Woong Choi

Griffin Cohen

The Effect Of

Prof. Vreeland 15 Oct 2013

Research Question

Internet

Democratization

Hypothesis

• Internet growth will the likelihood of democratization in autocratic regimes

– Internet facilitates communications, both domestically and internationally • Thus, gives “people” more power

increaseAlso:

-Democracies should both have more Internet users and Internet growth

-In the years prior to democratization, countries should see increasing Internet growth

Arab Spring (2011)

Debate

• Globalization’s effects on world and politics Open Networks Closed Regimes: The Impact of the Internet on Authoritarian Rule

By Shanthi Kalathil & Taylor C. Boas

The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

By Ian Bremmer

Democratization(1995 – 2008, data from Prof. Vreeland): 25 Total

Nigeria 1999Taiwan 1996Niger 2000Thailand 2008Kenya 1998Burundi 2005*Sierra Leone 1996Comoros 2004Pakistan 2008Kyrgyzstan 2005Liberia 2006*Guinea-Bissau 2000

Nepal 2008Georgia 2004Senegal 2000Maldives 2008Ecuador 2002Indonesia 1999Mauritania 2007Bhutan 2007*Sierra Leone 1998Mexico 2000*Guinea-Bissau 2004Peru 2001Serbia and Montenegro 2000

Case Studies

Russia

Ukraine

China North AfricanCountries

Tunisia

Methodology

• Merging Data Sets• WDI and Vreeland Democracy

• Data from 1995-2008• 25 Countries transition from Dictatorship to

Democracy

New VariablesInternet Growth per YearRegime ChangesRegime Transition Weighted

-Year of transition = 3-1 Year before = 2-2 Years before = 1-All others = 0

Number of Aggregate Transitions per Year

Statistical Tests:CorrelationRegressionFixed RegressionGraphs (two-way, quadratic, and simple bar graphs)

Do File: Merging Datasets

Do File: New Variables

Internet and New Variables

Preliminary Results

Preliminary Results

Internet Users Effect on Democracy

Internet Users Effect on Democracy (Quadratic Fit)

Number of Democratizations per year

5

4

3

2

1

Internet Users Growth For World per Year

Internet Growth per Years Before Democratization

All Other Years

2 years prior

1 year prior

Year of

Effect of Internet Growth Rate on Nearing a Democratization

Effect of Regime type on Internet Growth Rate

Dictatorship

Democracy

Internet Growth Variable

Internet Growth Internet Growth

Effect of Regime type on Number of Internet Users

Dictatorship

Democracy

Future Research

• Region-specific analysis

• Data when Democracies fall and become Dictatorships

• Control for other variables besides GDP

Implications

Effect of Internet on Democratization(If proves robust…)

•China•Globalization •Countries looking for Democratization should focus on Internet growth•Dictatorships should try to suppress communications and Internet

Comments? Questions?