INTL 204: Comparative Politics

Chapter 12: Regime Transitions

Overview

• Regime transition: Happens when one type of

political system changes into another: From

authoritarian to democratic; from democratic

to authoritarian, …

Types of Regime Transitions

• Liberalization

– When non-democratic system becomes more open

& less oppressive: expansion of individual rights

& freedoms

– Not democratization: Non-democratic systems can

liberalize, but may still remain undemocratic.

– No real contestation of power.. Leaders can do it to

get more legitimization, control, … but they can

withdraw it.. ultimate power does not change

hands.

• Democratization

– Establishment of democracy. Power shifts to

people and elected officials.

– Not all democratization stories have happy ending:

• Incomplete Democratization

– Democracy lasts short and slowly collapses.

Reversal.

– Seen mainly in economically less developed

countries

• Semi-Democracy:

• No reversal but no real democracy either

• Incomplete shift of power to people and elected officials

• But “semi-democracy” can also be a regime type itself.

• Illiberal democracy, managed democracy

Waves of Democratization

• Waves of democratization: a particular

period when number of democracies around

the world significantly increases (When non-

democracies are significantly greater in

number, reverse wave occurs…)

Waves of Democratization Wave/Reverse Wave Examples Period

First Wave US (all male suffrage), France, Western

democracies.. partly Latin American; Middle

East?

1820s-1920s

First Reverse Wave 1922: Mussolini comes to power; Nazi

Germany, Italy, Spain,…

1920s-1940s

Second Wave Decolonization, Post WWII; Europe, Africa &

Asia

1940s-1960s

Second Reverse Wave Military regimes of Africa, Latin America,… 1960s-mid 1970s

Third Wave Post-Communist Democratization Mid 1970s-1990s

Third Reverse Wave

???

Peru, Belarus, Niger, Gambia 1990s-2000s

Fourth Wave ??? 3.2

Wave?

Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine (Orange Rev.),

American-led Iraq, etc…

2000s-present

Fifth Wave?? 3.3? Arab Spring 2010-…

Stages of Democratization

1. Breakdown of non-democracy (Preparatory stage)

– Slow liberalization or abrupt collapse

– Can be top-down (elites) or from below (opposition-led)

2. Establishment of democracy (Decision stage)

– Elites establish institutional framework

– New constitution by referendum

3. Consolidation of democracy

– Democracy becomes the only game in town

– Democracy cannot easily be broken (unless dramatic crises or corruption occurs

Requirements of Consolidation • Repeated & Free & Fair elections

– Routine elections are the only game in town

• Peaceful transfer of power – Not only opposition, but also incumbent may loose elections

– Two-turnover test

• Surviving tests – Enduring military coups, economic crisis.

• Adherence to Rule of Law – Following constitution & accepting no one is above the law

• Legitimacy – Population accepts that political system can make binding rules

– Is the acceptance of large population enough?

• Long survival time – Lifespan of democracy

Democratic Breakdown, Scenario I

Crisis

Government fails to address pressing social problems

Breakdown

Government faces instability & diminishing legitimacy

Surrendering power to army / Neutralize Opposition

Democratic Breakdown, Scenario II

Crisis

Government fails to address pressing social problems

Reequilibration

Revising the democracy: incumbent accepts new policy directions

Think & Discuss

Could democracy possibly break down in the

UK? In the US? How?

Structural & Choice explanations of

Democratization

Internal External

Structure Internal Structure External

Structure

Choice Internal Choice External Choice

Internal Structure, 1

• Economic Structure

– Direct effects: Increasing econ. power spreads across population

– Indirect effects: Urbanization, education, sense of security

• Political Culture

– Belief in authority

– Valuing Security vs. liberty

– Attachment to national identity, to central government

Internal Structure, 2

• Identity Structure – Cross-cutting identities: More democratic?

– Complementary identities: Democratic participation may foster divisions…

– Are certain identities incompatible with democracy? Islam, fundamentalism, …

– How much can political culture be justified with religion?

• Institutional Arrangements of the New Democracy – When an old system breaks down, its institutions might live

– Designing the institutions of the new democracy: • Federal versus unitary system

• Presidential versus parliamentary

• Judiciary with constitutional review versus those without

• FTPT vs. PR electoral system

External Structural, 1

• International Polar System – Pole: Dominant state in the international system

– Polar system: different combinations of poles. Could be bipolar (Cold War), unipolar (current ???), triplar, multipolar (interwar)

– Unipolar: Dominant country does not tolerate rogue states. What if dominant country was undemocratic? Would there be democratic states?

• Imposition Through Conquest – British Colonies, US-led democratization in Iraq, Afghanistan,

etc…

• Global Economic Structure – Modernization vs. Dependency…

External Structural, 2

• International Organizations & Membership Rule – IGO: Intergovernmental Organizations.

• Official state memberships

• EU, UN

• Has leverages, more effective

• Conditionality: Standards of membership (ex: if you want to join, embrace democracy!)

– NGO: Non-governmental Organizations. • Made up by non-state actors, groups.

• Less leverage than IGOs

• Demonstration Effects (Contagion) – Impacts of democratization in the neighboring countries

– When a country first democratizes in an undemocratic region, others may follow this example

Internal Choice

• Leadership in Breakdown Stage

– Reformers(moderates): Non-democratic leaders might be surrounded by pro-liberalization elites

– Hardliners: Adhere to non-democracy. With hardliners, democratization is not really possible

– Opposition:

• Moderates: Cooperate with old government

• Radicals: Strongly oppose old government.

– Critical decision makers such as: Spanish King Juan Carlos in 1981

Leadership in Consolidation

• Pacts: – Negotiated agreement during democratization (E.g. Poland

1989, Venezuela’s 1958 Pact of Punto Fijo)

– Pacts generally cover the new institutional arrangements of the democracy to be established

– Bargaining between reformers of the old government and moderates of the new opposition

• Pacts are, in many ways, undemocratic. They involve a small group of individuals deciding both the institutional arrangements of a new democracy and key economic and social policies. Is it food to build a new democracy in such an undemocratic fashion? Why or why not?

• What does this say about possible democratic transition in Syria?

• What kind of policy should be supported to make democracy possible in Syria?

External Choice

• Leadership & decisions of outside elites

• Outside elites might want (+have stakes in) a country to democratize

• Examples:

– Ronald Reagan: Collapse of

European Communism

– Mikhail Gorbachev

– Pope John Paul II: Collapse of

Eastern European Communism

Triggering Events

• Triggering events do not cause democratization alone,

but affect the timing

• Economic crises (Ex: In 1990’s: Malaysia, Singapore)

• Death of an authoritarian leader (ex: Franco, Spain)

• Protests:

– Government suppresses: Legitimacy of government shrinks

– Government does not suppress: Opposition grows

Structural & Choice Explanations of

Democratic Breakdown • Economic breakdown

– Citizens can be frustrated of an economic breakdown upon economic development

• Incompatible political culture – Unfavorable public opinion about democracy

– Elites willing to abandon democracy

• Identity structure – Complementary identity Fragile democracy

• Military unwillingness of civil rule

• Electoral systems – Do not affect democratization directly.

– But foster party cooperation more solid democracy

Topic in Countries

• The United Kingdom – Gradual evolution from strong monarchy to

consolidated democracy over several hundred years

• Germany – Externally imposed democracy after WWII; today a

highly consolidated democracy

• India – Democratic system since its independence from the

British

Topic in Countries

• Mexico – Democratization mirrored economic and social

developments; large role of external factors

• Brazil – Top-down management of democratization; not yet

consolidated, but has survived numerous challenges

• Nigeria – Currently on 4th attempt at democratization; case

highlights importance of tackling corruption

Topic in Countries • Russia

– Functional democracy during 1990s, with creeping authoritarianism following the Putin’s win in the 2000 presidential election

• China

– No significant experience with democratization; economic liberalization may lead to political liberalization, but cannot predict when

• Iran

– Demographic shifts since the Revolution of 1979 favor democratization, although hard-liners have held on to their significant institutional power

Think and Discuss

What lesson can be learned from India to better understand democratization? Is this lesson applicable to other cases?