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Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT & the Workshop & the Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” Liberec, February 15-17, 2012 Liberec, February 15-17, 2012 Jan Kysel Jan Kysel ý ý , Jan Picek , Jan Picek
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Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT

& the Workshop& the Workshop“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”

Liberec, February 15-17, 2012Liberec, February 15-17, 2012

Jan KyselJan Kyselýý, Jan Picek, Jan Picek

population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.)

first noted as Reichenberg in 1348

prevailing German population until WWII

centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester of Bohemia“

collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)

LiberecLiberec

population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.)

first noted as Reichenberg in 1348

prevailing German population until WWII

centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester of Bohemia“

collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)

notable people include

Ferdinand Porsche (1875-1951; Volkswagen Beetle – most manufactured car…)

Karel Hubáček (1924-2011; SIAL Architectural Studio, Ještěd Tower – city’s dominant & the most respected Czech architectural work of the 20th century)

LiberecLiberec

built in 1963-1968

at the top of Ještěd Mt. (1012 m)

1969: the Perret Prize from the International Union of Architects

2000: Czech architects named Ještěd tower the most successful domestic architectural work of the 20th century

shape naturally extends the silhouette of the hill

a place to oversee much of Bohemia and parts of Poland and Germany

JeJeštěd Mt. štěd Mt. & Tower& Tower

in the centre of a mountain region (surrounded by the Jizera Mountains and the Ještěd-Kozákov Ridge, both exceeding 1000 m a.s.l.)

World Championship in cross-country (Nordic) skiing 2009

plenty of rain & snow…

LiberecLiberec

Nová Louka, July 29, 1897:

345 mm in 24 h

(record-breaking in Central Europe)

KLIMATEXT projectKLIMATEXT project

2011/10 – 2014/9

PI: Jan Picek

“Statistical Modelling of CLIMATE EXTremes”

statisticians, climatologists, hydrologist, geographers

built on previous successful cooperation between Czech climatologists and statisticians

“Strengthening international cooperation of the KLIMATEXT research team” (ESF)

cooperating institutions: KNMI (de Bilt, Netherlands), CSIC (Zaragoza, Spain), University of Lisbon (Portugal)

KLIMATEXT projectKLIMATEXT project

development of advanced statistical models for estimating probabilities of climate extremes

“advanced”: non-stationarity/covariates

spatial/regional analysis

attracting a lot of interest in recent years – “extreme progress” in development and implementation of these methodologies in the past 5-7 years at the international literature

(availability of 1) statistical methodologies,

2) computation/programming resources,

3) “research need” – climate change)

still many open and unresolved issues

The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)

non-stationarity/covariates in EVA in climatology

formal time schedule: yes, but…

work in progress

questions, comments, ideas etc. during presentations welcome

logistic things, forms etc.: Ivana Šafarčíková & Pavla Charwotová

lunch – university canteen

The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)

field trip (this afternoon): fill-in your preference during tea break!

meeting at 14:50 (option 1) or 14:40 (option 2) at the reception

cable car: return ticket 120 CZK, one-way 75 CZK

the plan is to go down at 17:00 and have dinner at ~17:30

Option 1:

Ještěd by cable car (meeting at 14:50 at the reception)

Option 2:

Ještěd on foot (14:40 at the reception)

Option 3:

no excursion (17:30 at restaurant in Horní Hanychov; maps will be available)

The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)

Today:

Session 1: Extremes in climate models, spatial dependence

Session 2: Nonstationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) method

Tomorrow:

Session 3: Covariate-dependent extremes

Session 4: Precipitation, covariates & extremes

Hope you will enjoy all 3:Hope you will enjoy all 3:

Liberec, KLIMATEXT & the WorkshopLiberec, KLIMATEXT & the Workshop“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”


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