Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT
& the Workshop& the Workshop“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”
Liberec, February 15-17, 2012Liberec, February 15-17, 2012
Jan KyselJan Kyselýý, Jan Picek, Jan Picek
population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.)
first noted as Reichenberg in 1348
prevailing German population until WWII
centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester of Bohemia“
collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)
LiberecLiberec
population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.)
first noted as Reichenberg in 1348
prevailing German population until WWII
centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester of Bohemia“
collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)
notable people include
Ferdinand Porsche (1875-1951; Volkswagen Beetle – most manufactured car…)
Karel Hubáček (1924-2011; SIAL Architectural Studio, Ještěd Tower – city’s dominant & the most respected Czech architectural work of the 20th century)
LiberecLiberec
built in 1963-1968
at the top of Ještěd Mt. (1012 m)
1969: the Perret Prize from the International Union of Architects
2000: Czech architects named Ještěd tower the most successful domestic architectural work of the 20th century
shape naturally extends the silhouette of the hill
a place to oversee much of Bohemia and parts of Poland and Germany
JeJeštěd Mt. štěd Mt. & Tower& Tower
in the centre of a mountain region (surrounded by the Jizera Mountains and the Ještěd-Kozákov Ridge, both exceeding 1000 m a.s.l.)
World Championship in cross-country (Nordic) skiing 2009
plenty of rain & snow…
LiberecLiberec
Nová Louka, July 29, 1897:
345 mm in 24 h
(record-breaking in Central Europe)
KLIMATEXT projectKLIMATEXT project
2011/10 – 2014/9
PI: Jan Picek
“Statistical Modelling of CLIMATE EXTremes”
statisticians, climatologists, hydrologist, geographers
built on previous successful cooperation between Czech climatologists and statisticians
“Strengthening international cooperation of the KLIMATEXT research team” (ESF)
cooperating institutions: KNMI (de Bilt, Netherlands), CSIC (Zaragoza, Spain), University of Lisbon (Portugal)
KLIMATEXT projectKLIMATEXT project
development of advanced statistical models for estimating probabilities of climate extremes
“advanced”: non-stationarity/covariates
spatial/regional analysis
attracting a lot of interest in recent years – “extreme progress” in development and implementation of these methodologies in the past 5-7 years at the international literature
(availability of 1) statistical methodologies,
2) computation/programming resources,
3) “research need” – climate change)
still many open and unresolved issues
The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)
non-stationarity/covariates in EVA in climatology
formal time schedule: yes, but…
work in progress
questions, comments, ideas etc. during presentations welcome
logistic things, forms etc.: Ivana Šafarčíková & Pavla Charwotová
lunch – university canteen
The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)
field trip (this afternoon): fill-in your preference during tea break!
meeting at 14:50 (option 1) or 14:40 (option 2) at the reception
cable car: return ticket 120 CZK, one-way 75 CZK
the plan is to go down at 17:00 and have dinner at ~17:30
Option 1:
Ještěd by cable car (meeting at 14:50 at the reception)
Option 2:
Ještěd on foot (14:40 at the reception)
Option 3:
no excursion (17:30 at restaurant in Horní Hanychov; maps will be available)
The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)
Today:
Session 1: Extremes in climate models, spatial dependence
Session 2: Nonstationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) method
Tomorrow:
Session 3: Covariate-dependent extremes
Session 4: Precipitation, covariates & extremes