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Farm Water FuturesWhat can you do to make your business fit for the future?
30th March 2010
Claire WyattForum for the Future
Profitable business in a changing climate
Outline of presentation
• Why hold an event like today?• How does agriculture contribute to climate change?• The political landscape
• Opportunities and Risks • What are some farmers already doing?
Profitable business in a changing climate
What is Farming Futures?
Profitable business in a changing climate
Information and inspiration
• Partnerships• Fact sheets• Case studies• On-farm events• Media profile
Profitable business in a changing climate
So, why is everyone talking about climate change?
Figure: Changes in Central England Temperature from 1877 to 2006 relative to the average over the 1961-90 baseline period (about 9.5 ºC). (Source: Met Office Hadley Centre)
The indisputable truth…
Its warmer…>1°C
Profitable business in a changing climate
Profitable business in a changing climate
50% believe climate
change is having an effect now
Profitable business in a changing climate
50% believe climate
change is having an effect now
63% think climate
change will have an effect
in next 10 years
Profitable business in a changing climate
50% believe climate
change is having an effect now
63% think climate
change will have an effect
in next 10 years
31% are taking action to adapt to the impacts
of climate change
Profitable business in a changing climate
• Agriculture contributes 7% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions:
• < 1% of carbon dioxide (CO2)• ~ 1/3rd of methane (CH4)• ~ 2/3rds of nitrous oxide (N2O)
Agriculture and climate change
Profitable business in a changing climate
And it’s going to keep on changing…Max summer temperature by 2050 up 3-4°C
Average winter temperature
2020: +1.3°C
2050: +2.2°C
2080: +3°C
Medium emissions scenario –OPTIMISTIC!
High emissions scenario mean summer temp by 2080: +4.9°C
Profitable business in a changing climate
What about rainfall?Winter rainfall up 10-20% by 2050
2020: -8%
2050: -20%
2080: -24%
Summer rainfall
Medium emissions scenario –OPTIMISTIC!
High emissions scenario by 2080: -30%
Profitable business in a changing climate
The political landscape
Profitable business in a changing climate
Targets and action plans
• Renewable Energy Strategy - 15% total energy by 2020• 30-40% of our elec from renewables
• Low carbon transition plan – 11% by 2020• GHG Action Plan (Climate change task force)• Campaigns and services
• Act on CO2• Defra Advisory Service • Carbon Trust loans
• Food security• Increase production
Profitable business in a changing climate
Low Carbon Transition Plan
Profitable business in a changing climate
What about water?
• 1.3 million hectares of farmland in floodplains• 40% loss of produce (2007) – £7-19m• Climate change could increase demand for
irrigation by 50% by 2050• This is for all farmers
• Prices going up• Abstraction licences• Opportunities to save
Profitable business in a changing climate
Who’s here to help?
• Environment Agency - Water resources strategy• Environment Agency - Rainwater as a resource• Farming Futures - Water management fact sheet• UK Irrigation Association - reports and publications
Profitable business in a changing climate
How?
• Improved efficiency and productivity
• Renewables
• Flood management
• Soil and Manure management
• Water management and harvesting
• Read the fact sheets and booklets!
Profitable business in a changing climate
What are farmers already doing?
Case study farmer – Elwyn Griffiths
Profitable business in a changing climate
Conclusions• Good news for UK farmers:
• Convergence of the food economy and the energy economy• Wider environmental goals • Global effects on world agriculture, and energy security issues• Potential for increased yields under warming + CO2• Cost savings via adaptation, efficiencies and mitigation tech
• Uncertainties remain:• Drought• Need to adapt and mitigate – costs and risks
• Plan for uncertainties through more conserved feeds and mix of crops and harvest / sowing times. Multi-purpose land use.
Profitable business in a changing climate
Any questions?
• www.farmingfutures.org.uk
• Claire Wyatt (project manager): [email protected] 2044340207 324 3670
Thank you!