Liberal education in 2022:

a scenarios exploration

American Association of Colleges and

Universities-

January 2012

nitle.org

Communities of practice

Research

Joint projects

Outreach

Network platform: events f2f/online

Partnerships Translation

Futuresmethods

Extrapolation Environmenta

l scan Delphi Futures

market

Scenarios

Caveat: wild cards and Black Swans

Extraordinary political or economic event

Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)

iPhone Apps Store downloads1.April 2009 1.0 billion2.July 2009 1.5 billion3.Sept 2009 2.0 billion4.Dec 2009 …?

-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics

Facebooks’ ascent

Tweak to contexts

Environmental scanning

Multiple sources

Should belongitudinal

Dynamic social media venue

Next 20 years? Screening Interacting Sharing Flowing Accessing Generating

-Kevin Kelly

Pattern recognition:Deductions from scanning

Delphi

Assemble experts

Probe for opinions

Rank and distill ideas

Reiterate

Example: the Horizon Report “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of

research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews

[We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.

A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.

Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”

Horizon trends, 2011

Electronic Books

Mobiles Augmented Reality

Game-Based Learning

Gesture-Based Computing

Learning Analytics

Futures markets Propositions in time Shares to be traded

Futures markets Quant. +

Qual. Affordances of

play

Continuous Distributed

feedback

Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity

Roles and times Emergent practices

and patterns

Scenarios

Integrate previous methods Select drivers –

environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi

reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions –

prediction markets

Is there a higher education bubble?

Digital humanities on the rise

Adjunctification continues

Alternative online learning

Textbooks going ebook+

Scholarly publication and/versus open access

Higher education budgets

Computer hardware ecology

Has the World Wide Web hit its limit?

January 2012 scan sample

Driver: digital migration

Social media Mobile devices Digital content, born and

made Ferment of forms›Gaming›User-generated, remixed content

Driver: digital migration

Broad and dynamic Industrial disruption Distance (or virtual) everything

Global default

Driver: globalism on steroids

Ever-increasing economic interpenetration

Global media boom/riptide

Ready cultural disruption

“ “ innovation

Driver: globalism on steroids

Policy churn Accelerating business distribution

Distant is the new nearby

Non-US educational drives

NITLEhttp://nitle.org

Technehttp://blogs.nitle.org/

NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/

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