Current Challenges in Climate Science (Introduction to IPCC WG1)

BC3-UPV/EHU Summer School 2014

Climate Change: Understanding the Challenge

Donostia - San Sebastián, 14 July 2014

Sérgio H. Faria Ikerbasque Research Professor

Ramón y Cajal Fellow

BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change

Bilbao, Spain

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1972

Stockholm Conference

and foundation of UNEP

2

1843: Invention of the telegraph

1853: 1st International Maritime Conference, Brussels

1882-83: 1st International Polar Year (1st IPY)

1879: 2nd IMC, Rome

1873: 1st International Meteorological Congress (1st IMC), Vienna

1932-33: 2nd IPY

1951

IMO is incorporated to UN as WMO

(World Meteorological Organization) 1957-58

International Geophysical Year (formerly 3rd IPY)

1979

1st World Climate Conference

(1st WCC), Geneva Climate Research Milestones

WW1

WW2

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1987: Montreal Protocol

1997: Kyoto Protocol

1995: 2nd IPCC Assessment Report

1988: WMO/UNEP establish the IPCC

2007: 4th IPCC Ass. Report

2007-08: 3rd IPY

2014

5th IPCC Assessment Report

1990: 1st IPCC Assessment Report

2001: 3rd IPCC Assessment Report

2009

3rd WCC, Geneva

Climate Research Milestones

1992: Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro

2002

Earth Summit, Johannesburg

2012

Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro (Rio+20)

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1st: Polar regions are the “canary in the coal mine” of Earth’s climate

John Scott Holding a Canary Cage Used in Mines Rescue Training. Courtesy of the Museum of Cannock Chase, Staffordshire, England (copyright unknown)

http://www.cannockchasedc.gov.uk/site/custom_scripts/HeritageTrail/museum_cannock.html

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Arctic Sea Ice. NOAA

Arctic Sea Ice Melting

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PIOMAS September Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Volume

sea

ice

volu

me

(100

0 km

3 )

year

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Arctic Sea Ice Extension, Thickness, and Drift Sep 1979 – Aug 2007

open water

1

2

3

6

8

> 10 yrs

Se

a i

ce

ag

e (

ye

ars

)

By Ignatius Rigor and John M. Wallace. International Arctic Buoy Program.

http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/research_seaiceageextent.html

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Lattice model of a “tennis-ball hydrate”. By Gustavo Avitabile and others. What is Chemistry.

http://www.whatischemistry.unina.it/en/credit.html

Burning ice (methane hydrate). U.S. Department of Energy

Methane Hydrates in Shallow Arctic Shelves

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Shakhova et al. (2010) Geochemical and geophysical evidence of methane release over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. JGR 115:C08007.

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Methane Hydrates in Shallow Arctic Shelves

Predicted deposits of shallow methane hydrates

(purple) over the Arctic Ocean. Red line marks the

50 m isobath.

Distribution of subsea permafrost.

ESAS = East Siberian Arctic Shelf

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2nd: Polar regions are essential components of the global climate system

* with minor modifications

Climate System diagram *

Earth Observation Research Center

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

http://suzaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GCOM_C/w_gcomc/pre_temp_f.html

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Seasonal cycles in polar regions

NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

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NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

The Greenland Ice Sheet

• Ice volume:

2.9 x 106 km3

• Ice mass:

2.7 x 1018 kg

• Potential sea level

rise:

7.3 m

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NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

The Antarctic Ice Sheet

• Ice volume:

24.7 x 106 km3

• Ice mass:

22.6 x 1018 kg

• Potential sea level

rise:

56.6 m

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3rd: Polar ice sheets are invaluable archives of Earth’s past climate

Petit et al. (1999) Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399:429-436.

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The EDML Deep Ice Core Total length 2774.15 m

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The EDML Deep Ice Core Air bubbles (EDML, 450 m depth)

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The EDML Deep Ice Core From snow to bubbly ice and air hydrates

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et

al.

(2

01

0)

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an

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t. S

ci.

Re

v.

29

: 3

38

-35

1.

60 m ~500 yr

1mm

1mm 1 m ~5 yr

20

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The EDML Deep Ice Core From snow to bubbly ice and air hydrates

21 1093 m

~ 26,000 yr 1 mm

Fa

ria

et

al.

(2

01

0)

Po

lar

ice

str

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an

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29

: 3

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1.

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NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory

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Afterword: a common dilemma…

1937 Morgan Super Sports Tricycle V-twin Matchless 1000

Woolwich, London, England, GB

By Ken (CC lic.)

July 4, 2010

http://www.flickr.com/photos/kenjonbro/with/4762601826/

By Paul Bence (CC lic.)

May 27, 2007

http://www.flickr.com/photos/paulbence/with/522008064/

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Geoengineering “solution”?

The Red Stiletto

By Michael Sauers (CC lic.)

June 13, 2006

http://www.flickr.com/photos/travelinlibrarian/with/166514354/

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Better mitigating! Go green!

By Michael Carruth (CC lic.)

July 4, 2007

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelcarruth/with/871146589/

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Thank you

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